研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1210.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.75%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1710.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.43%。昨日夜盘，Jm2601 收于 1167.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 3.55%；J2601 合约收于 1657.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 3.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中钢协数据显示，2025 年 10 月，全国生产粗钢 7200 万吨、同比下降 12.1%，日产 | | | | | 232.26 万吨/日，环比下降 5.2%；重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 6369.16 万吨，同比下 | | | | | 降 6.7%，日产 205.46 万吨，环比增长 1.9%。 | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 偏空 | 2、据国家能源集团，2025 年前 10 个月，国家能源 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 18 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.20%报 4045.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 1.25%报 50.05 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.04%报 931.24 元/克，沪银跌 0.17%报 11983 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 11 月 17 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 2.57 吨，当前持仓量为 1041.43 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日持平，当前持仓量为 15218.42 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 12 月降息 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，下午收盘2601合约涨跌幅0%，收于2182元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上调。东北地区深加工企 | | | | | 业收购价2033元/吨，较上周五涨15元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2248元/吨， | | | | | 较上周五涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格小幅上涨。昨日锦州港15%水二等新 | | | | | 季玉米收购价2170-2180元/吨左右，较上周五涨20元/吨；蛇口港成交价2345元/吨 | | | | | ，较上周五涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、17日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0张，共计69337张。 | | | 玉米 | 低多 | 4、玉米饲用性价比提升。WIND 数据显示截至11月17日，山东地区小麦-玉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Upgrade PLS to Overweight, MIN, IGO, LTR to Neutral [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for energy storage systems (ESS) will lead the market into a deficit, and short - term and long - term prices are upgraded [1] - In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of battery production will improve, and the potential for price increase will emerge. The explosion of ESS demand and supply disruptions of Chinese lithium mines jointly drive up lithium prices and industry prosperity [7] - Currently, the demand expectation for lithium carbonate is intensifying. With strong reality and strong expectation, the price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly and is expected to remain strong above 90,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summaries According to Related Information Information about Lithium Carbonate Demand and Supply in 2025 and 2026 - In 2025, the global demand for lithium carbonate is estimated to be 155 tons, while the supply capacity is over 170 tons, resulting in an excess of about 20 tons and low prices this year [6] - In 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow by 30% to 190 tons, and the supply capacity is estimated to increase by about 25 tons, with a basically balanced supply - demand situation and potential for price increase [6] Information about Lithium Carbonate Price Changes - On November 16, the market's bullish sentiment fermented after the statement of Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, and the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 90,000 yuan/ton, rising to 93,800 yuan/ton with a 7.47% increase [7] - If the demand growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2026 exceeds 30% or even reaches 40%, the price may break through 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [6] Information about the Market Outlook - The resumption of production at Xiawo will partially ease market tension but is difficult to change the trend of the supply - demand gap [7]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 铁矿: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Report on Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance Data - In November, the customs clearance vehicles at Ganqimao Port remained at a high level. As of November 15th, the average daily customs clearance vehicles were 1382, and on the 15th, the customs clearance vehicles increased significantly to 1659 per day [3] - The table shows the customs clearance data from October 28, 2025, to November 15, 2025, including the number of customs clearance vehicles, AGV numbers, total customs clearance vehicles, changes, and short - haul freight rates. The short - haul freight rate remained at 90 during this period [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of November 15th, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port was 280.68 tons, showing a slight inventory build - up of 13 tons compared to the previous week and a reduction of 81 tons compared to after the National Day holiday [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Inventory Data - A table shows the inventory and its month - on - month changes from August 8, 2025, to November 15, 2025, at the Ganqimao Port. For example, on August 16, 2025, the inventory was 267 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 7 tons; on November 15, 2025, the inventory was 281 tons with a month - on - month increase of 13 tons [6]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 46 元至 2035 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 25 元至 2047 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 67929 手至 85.34 万手，空 头持仓增加 104211 手至 111.94 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 87%，环比-0.65%。海外甲醇开工率 73.5%，环比+1.5%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 154.36 万吨，增加 5.65 万吨。其中，华东 | | | | | 地区累库，库存增加 6.49 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 0.84 万吨。中国甲醇样 | | | | | 本生产企 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be continuously monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After a slight decline in the morning session, they fluctuated narrowly. They once declined in the afternoon and recovered at the end. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2512 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 141.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 71.1 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.48% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.32 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.33 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.14 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.15% [1] - **Housing Market**: In October, the second - hand housing sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In second - tier cities, they decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In third - tier cities, they decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1] - **Investment and Consumption Data**: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, January - September: - 0.5%). In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, September: 6.5%), and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.7%, September: 3.0%). The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year [1][2] - **Policy Information**: On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting was held to study the in - depth implementation of the "two major" construction, emphasizing strategic, forward - looking, and overall requirements, promoting the development of new - quality productivity, and guiding more private capital participation [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report points out to optimize intermediate variables and pay attention to interest rate parity relationships. The Wande All - A index fell 1.27% on Friday, and treasury bond futures fluctuated horizontally and basically closed flat. Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be monitored [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Morning session notice | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周五螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘继续收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、央行陶玲：约束金融行业"内卷式竞争"，保持合理的盈利空间。 | 2、国家统计局：要继续扩大国内需求、优化市场竞争环境等促进物价合理回升。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3、国家统计局：10 | 月中国汽车产量 | 327.9 | 万辆，同比增 | 11.2%。 | 4、 | 1-10 | 月份，全国房地产开发投资 | 73563 | 亿元，同比下降 | 14.7%。 | | | | | | | 5、2025 | 年 | 10 | 月，中国粗钢产量 | 7200 | 万吨，同比下降 | 12.1%；生铁产量 | 655 ...