】 自2018年中美贸易摩擦加剧以来,中国对美国进口的原木加征了高达25%的关税,此举不仅改变了美国原木的出 口流向,还导致中国从美国进口的原木份额从19%大幅降至5%。目前,美国已成为中国第三大针叶原木供应国。根据 木联教据的统计,2024年全年,中国从美国进口的针叶原木总量达到127.29万立方米,仅占全年针叶原木总进口量 (2612万 立方米) 的5%,次于新西兰（占比68%）和日本（占比6%）。 鉴于中国时原木进口的高依赖性、尽管如此, 由于美国原木进口比例的持续缩减,此次暂停进口美国原木时中国木材供应造成的压力相对有限。海关总署的数据显 示,12月份原木及针中原木的进口量均有所增加,同时下游需求尚未全面复苏,导致近期国内原木库存保持高位运行。 载至2月28日、中国七大省份针中原木游口库存总量达到351.42万立方米,环比上升0.66%。创下近五个半月来的新高。 从树种上看,在针叶原木领域,中国从美国进口的主要树种包括花滩松、南方松、云杉和铁杉,它们在进口量上 占据显著位置。这些树种中,高品质的原木因其优良的性能被广泛应用于乐器制造（清如钢琴与吉他）、高档家具打 造、古建筑复原、国林景观建设以及寿材制 ...

全球经济月报 证监许可【2011】1288号 2025年2月27日 联系我们 | 研究员： 于军礼 | | --- | | 邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com | | 从业资格：F0247894 | | 投资咨询：Z0000112 | 特此声明。 美国制造业进入扩张期 多空逻辑：1月全球制造业PMI指数为50.1，进入扩张期；新订单指数为50.8，加速扩张；全 球制造业进入新一轮扩张周期；1月ISM制造业PMI指数为50.9%，进入扩张期；新订单指数 为55.1%，加速扩张，显示美国制造业进入新一轮扩张周期；12月美国商品贸易逆差当月值 为1229亿美元，创下新记录，当月同比增速大增至39.0%；美国12月零售商库存同比增速为 5.5%，制造商库存同比增速为0.8%，仍处于主动补库存状态；2月印度制造业PMI创下三年来 新高；英国央行在2月6日降息25个基点；欧盟27国PPI同比增速已转正，环比增长0.4%； 市场观点：1月全球制造业PMI指数、新订单指数进入扩张区间，显示全球制造业进入新一 轮景气扩张期。美国1月ISM制造业PMI指数、新订单指数进入扩张区间，美国2月Market制 造业PMI上行 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to enter a second inflationary phase, with a short interest rate cut cycle likely ending by Q3 2025[4] - China's economic growth is projected to stabilize around 5% in 2025, driven by domestic demand and investment in emerging industries[4] - The EU's retail sales index showed a year-on-year growth of 2.8% in September 2024, indicating a recovery in consumer spending[4] Group 2: Commodity and Market Trends - Commodity prices are anticipated to continue an upward trend until Q3 2025, driven by increased demand from China and the US[4] - The US retail sales saw a month-on-month increase of 1.2% in July 2024, reflecting strong consumer demand[16] - China's stock market is expected to experience a bullish trend, with significant inflows from both domestic and international investors, potentially reaching new highs by summer 2025[98] Group 3: Emerging Markets - India's economic growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 6.9%, with expectations of 6.6% growth in 2025, supported by a large population and increasing commodity consumption[4] - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with December 2024 exports to ASEAN reaching $59.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%[73]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 5.1%[1] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2024 was 4.6%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6% in Q4 compared to 0.9% in Q3[4] - The annual GDP growth for 2024 was 5%, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year[4] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment in 2024 increased by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation of 3.4%[5] - Broad infrastructure investment (including electricity) rose by 9.19% in 2024, while manufacturing investment grew by 9.2%[5] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 10.6% in 2024, continuing a downward trend from previous months[5] Industrial Performance - In December 2024, the industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.5%[2] - The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q4 2024 was 76.2%, an improvement from 75.1% in Q3 2024[13] - The manufacturing PMI for December was 50.1, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector[13] Consumer Activity - Retail sales of consumer goods in December grew by 3.7% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.5%[3] - The service sector production index increased by 6.5% in December, reflecting a robust performance in the services industry[15] - The urban unemployment rate in December was 5.1%, consistent with the previous year, indicating stability in the labor market[15] Export and Import Dynamics - In December 2024, exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, significantly higher than the expected 7.1%[14] - Imports saw a modest growth of 1% in December, contrasting with previous declines[14] - The increase in exports to the U.S. was particularly notable, rising by 15.59% year-on-year[14]

Hello, and welcome to the Greenbrier Company's first quarter of fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Each analyst should limit themselves to one question with a follow-up if needed. Until that time, all lines will be in a listen-only mode. At the request of the Greenbrier Company, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Justin Roberts, Vice ...

早 觀提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品秤 | 多(空) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (重要资讯) | | | | | 1、华尔街 TOP 10 大行发布对 2025年海外市场展望,多数预测美元将保持强势, | | | | | 美国GDP 增长预期在 1.8%至 2.5%之间。美联储降息预期则从 25 至 125个基点不等, | | | | | 反映出对货币政策的不同看法。 | | | | | 2、高盛对冲基金业务负责人称,2024年美股七大科技巨头股价飙升 48%,创造了 6 | | | | | 万亿美元的额外市值。他认为,接下来市场的主要驱动力将转向盈利增长。 | | | | | 3、乌克兰能源部表示,基辅时间 1 月 1 日早 7 时,乌克兰停止了俄罗斯天然气过 | | | | | 境输送服务。 | | | | | 4、在华盛顿,新能源行业高管于 12月假期前与共和党议员会面,以调整行业宣传 | | | | | 策略。与过去宣传项目"清洁且经济"不同,他们开始强调可再生能源项目"满足 | | | | | 能源需求"的能力。 ...

研究员： 于军礼 大类资产配置专题报告 2025年1月2日 期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 从经济四周期配置大类资产1月篇 摘要： 从业资格证号： F0247894 交易咨询资格： Z0000112 联系邮箱： yujunli@greendh.com 美国经济再加速，美国基钦周期上行期大概率运行至四季度； 中国本轮基钦周期上行期大概率运行至2025年三季度； 美联储货币政策决定行情时点，本轮降息进程大概率在2025年 三季度结束，最快2025年底加息； 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 中美关税大博弈决定行情节奏； 成文时间：2025年1月2日星期四 中国房地产市场进入K型分化阶段； 方微信 2025年：中美基钦周期共振冲顶 专项债自发自审，省级统筹，地方政府展开新一轮债务扩张驱 动，核心点在新兴产业基础设施，新兴产业迎来爆发潮； 本轮基钦周期上行期，大宗商品价格仍欠缺一轮上升浪； 中国权益市场逐步由慢牛转向快牛，夏季转向市场中性策略； AI迈向大规模应用，预示中国在AI竞争中将超车和领先； 中国不会走向零利率，缘于中国超大规模市场、中国持续增长 的经济总量、中国在科技树 ...

证监许可【2011】1288 号 中国期货衍生品市场年报 消费是收入的函数，我们可以观察到居民收入增速会直接影响到当期的消费。居民持有资 产价格的变化也会影响消费，中国居民资产的约 70%是房子，过去两年房价的持续下降，也对 居民的消费带来负面的影响。 二、消费 2025 年展望 2025 年消费政策导向是增强消费对经济增长的基础性作用，加快完善"想消费""敢消 费""能消费"的政策环境，规范压减对消费的限制性措施，对可以依靠市场充分竞争提升供 给质量的服务消费领域放宽准入限制，合理增加公共消费，多元扩大普惠性非基本公共服务供 给。2024 年支持消费增长的政策在 2025 年会延续，包括鼓励汽车和家电消费以旧换新的政策。 财政政策可能会继续出台增加居民福利和促进消费的措施。股市的企稳有助于财富效应的体现。 房地产价格在寻底的过程中，降幅可能趋缓。消费能力和消费意愿的提升不大会一蹴而就。我 们预期 2025 年实际经济增长可能会在 4.9%-5.1%，通胀情况大概率会继续维持较低的增长， 社零增速全年可能在 4%左右。 12 宏观与金融衍生品分册 证监许可【2011】1288 号 中国期货衍生品市场年报 图 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The US national debt has exceeded $36 trillion, growing at a rate of $1 trillion per quarter, leading to a projected annual interest expense of $1.6 trillion if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates[1] - The US government revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is estimated at $4.4 trillion, indicating a significant budgetary pressure due to high debt servicing costs[1] - India's economic growth rate for 2024 is projected at 6.9%, with expectations of 6.6% growth in 2025, driven by its large population and increasing share in global commodity consumption[11] Group 2: Market Trends - The EU's retail sales index saw a year-on-year growth of 2.8% in September, indicating a positive growth trend as the European Central Bank enters a rate-cutting cycle[9] - China's economic growth is expected to stabilize around 5% in 2025, with a shift towards a technology-driven economy and increased capital market activity[26] - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to experience a bullish trend, supported by low valuations and strong growth potential, with significant inflows from both domestic and international investors[23] Group 3: Commodity and Asset Insights - The commodity market is expected to see a price uptrend continuing into the third quarter of 2025, driven by global economic recovery and increased demand[71] - Gold is projected to play a crucial role in hedging against inflation risks in the US, especially with anticipated policies that may lead to significant inflationary pressures[37] - The Chinese government is expected to implement policies that will enhance domestic demand, potentially reversing the negative impact of the real estate sector on economic growth[118]

Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank held discussions with aggressive financial institutions regarding their risk management and investment strategies, emphasizing the need for compliance and stability in bond investments[3] - Recent enforcement actions have targeted institutions involved in account lending, market disruption, and internal control failures, with a zero-tolerance policy for violations in the bond market[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the central bank's announcements, government bond futures prices experienced a significant drop, indicating a market reassessment of the central bank's stance on long-term bond interest rates[3] - The previous bullish sentiment in the market was partly due to the central bank's silence on long-term interest rate risks, which has now been disrupted by the recent communication[3] - The expectation is that the market will enter a phase of wide fluctuations, with potential rebounds followed by stabilization after the initial drop[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term trend of government bond futures will depend on fundamental factors and expectations regarding future interest rate cuts by the central bank[3] - If there is a significant market correction, it may present a favorable opportunity for bullish positions to be established[3]