早盘提示 Morning session notice 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、 工业金属等大类资产产生颠覆式深远影响。 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日 星期三 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 沃什的降息+缩表组合，表明美联储货币政策将重大转向，将对权益类资产产 生强烈的流动性收缩预期。 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、特朗普明确表态，要求对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查"进行到底"。市场担 | | | | | 忧，特朗普对鲍威尔的穷追猛打，可能导致沃什无法顺利接任联储主席一职。此前 | | | | | 共和党参议员 Thom Tillis 警告，"不停止调查就阻挠新美联储主席提名"。 | | | | | 2、对冲基金疯狂逃离软件股，私募股权板块遭遇抛售潮。巴克莱警告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Urea prices are expected to remain oscillating, with supply pressure limiting the rebound height. The reference range for the 05 contract is between 1740 - 1840 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped 11 yuan to 1787 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1770 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings increased by 7395 lots to 218,000 lots, while short - position holdings decreased by 1995 lots to 239,000 lots [1] 3.2. Important Information 3.2.1. Supply - The daily production of the urea industry is 21.11 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 1.63 tons compared to the same period last year. The daily operating rate is 89.66%, a 2.65% increase from 87.01% in the same period last year [1] 3.2.2. Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 94.49 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons from last week, a 0.12% decrease month - on - month. The sample inventory at urea ports is 13.4 tons, unchanged month - on - month [1] 3.2.3. Demand - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 41.3%, a 1.6% decrease month - on - month, and the operating rate of melamine is 66.4%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month [1] 3.2.4. Tendering and Import - Export - On January 2, NFL in India held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total tender volume of 362 tons, including 159 tons on the east coast and 202 tons on the west coast. The lowest quotes from Koch were CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast. In December 2025, urea imports were 35.39 tons, an 82.11% decrease month - on - month, and the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a 52.11% decrease month - on - month. Urea exports were 27.83 tons, a 53.75% decrease month - on - month, and the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a 56.64% decrease month - on - month [1] 3.2.5. Oil Price - The US and Iran are keeping dialogue and consultation options, alleviating concerns about supply risks due to geopolitical tensions, leading to a fall in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract dropped 0.21 dollars/barrel to 65.21 dollars/barrel, a 0.32% decrease month - on - month; the ICE Brent oil futures 03 contract dropped 0.02 dollars/barrel to 70.69 dollars/barrel, a 0.03% decrease month - on - month. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 15.9 to 482.9 yuan/barrel, and then fell 12.9 to 470 yuan/barrel at night [1] 3.3. Market Logic - Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was between 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton. New orders of urea factories were well - pre - sold, but high - price transactions significantly weakened. Supply pressure limits the rebound height of urea prices [1] 3.4. Trading Strategy - The recommendation is to wait and see for the time being [1]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 ，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | -- ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、九部门印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》 ...

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | COMEX | 黄金期货跌 | 1.35%报 | 4680.90 | 美元/盎司，COMEX | 白银期货涨 | 0.93%报 | 79.27 | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 | 3.86%报 | 1045 | 元/克，沪银主力合约下跌 | 20%报 | 20600 | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、截至 | 2 | 月 | 2 | 日，全球最大黄金 | ETF--SPDR | Gold | Trust | 持仓较上个交易日维持 ...

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 | Jm2605 | 收于 | 1141.5 | 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 | 1.21%；焦炭主力合约 | J2605收于 | 1680.5 | 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 | 2.38%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约收于 | 1175.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨，环比日盘收盘上涨 | 2.93%，焦炭主力合约收于 | 1729.0 | 元/吨，环比日盘收盘上涨 | 2.89%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector: Neutral [1] - Rubber series in the energy and chemical sector: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar market: External market ICE raw sugar is consolidating narrowly, with strong Indian sugar - making data pressuring prices. Some institutions are reducing sugar production forecasts for 2026/27, which may support long - term prices. The domestic sugar market has a weak trading atmosphere, and the short - term lacks fundamental and external market guidance [1]. - Rubber market: Natural rubber declined due to the overall fall of commodities, with upstream raw materials providing support and downstream tire enterprises' holidays dragging down capacity utilization. The long - term outlook is bullish. Synthetic rubber's cost - side support is limited, and it is affected by crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar 3.1.1 Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5207 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.78%, and 5197 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5222 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.80%, and 5212 yuan/ton at night [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - Guangxi's spot sugar price was 5252 yuan/ton yesterday, down 41 yuan/ton; sugar - making groups' quotes in Guangxi and Yunnan were adjusted down, and some processing sugar mills' quotes were also lowered [1]. - Stonex expects Brazil's mid - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 4070 tons, 80 tons less than the previous forecast, and ethanol production to be 36.5 billion liters, 400 million liters more than before [1]. - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, up 18.35% year - on - year, and the number of operating sugar mills increased by 14 [1]. - Green Pool expects the global sugar surplus in the 2026/27 season to drop to 156,000 tons [1]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 50 to 14,069 yesterday [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar is consolidating narrowly, pressured by strong Indian data, but production cuts may support long - term prices. - Domestic market: Zheng sugar declined yesterday and was weak at night. Pre - Spring Festival stocking is ending, and the market lacks guidance [1]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - SR605 should focus on the 5100 - 5300 range, with partial profit - taking for previous short positions and a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy [1]. Rubber Series 3.2.1 Market Quotes - As of February 2, RU2605 closed at 15,980 yuan/ton, down 2.32%; NR2603 closed at 12,925 yuan/ton, down 2.34%; BR2603 closed at 12,900 yuan/ton, down 3.66% [4]. 3.2.2 Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 59.1 baht/kg, and cup - lump price was 53.5 baht/kg yesterday [4]. - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.23%, with保税区 inventory up 3.34% and general trade inventory up 0.82% [4]. - Yesterday's full - latex price was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 2.17%; 20 - standard Thai rubber was 1925 US dollars/ton, down 1.79% [4]. - The price difference between RU and NR narrowed, as did the price difference between mixed standard rubber and RU [4]. - Yesterday's butadiene prices in Shandong and East China were in certain ranges, and the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in Shandong declined [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Natural rubber: Affected by the overall fall of commodities, it is supported by upstream raw materials but dragged down by downstream tire enterprises' holidays. The long - term outlook is bullish [4]. - Synthetic rubber: Short - term supply supports the market, but the acceptance of new supplies by downstream is average, and it is affected by crude oil prices [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Rubber series should focus on the lower support. Those not in the market can enter lightly after the adjustment [4].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 27 元至 2262 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 40 元至 2230 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 5920 手至 46.7 万手，空头 持仓增加 5946 手至 59.2 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 89.9%，环比-1.3%。海外甲醇开工率 52.1%，环比-8.6%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 震荡 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨，较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 3.3 万吨。中 国甲醇样本生产企业库存 42.4 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 03 日星期二 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结算价 62.67 跌 50 点，5 月 64.40 跌 53 点，7 月 66.10 跌 45 点；成 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 交约 9.0 万手。 郑棉总成交 599538 持仓 994666。结算价 5 月 14640，9 月 14745，1 月 15120。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1月 29日南疆巴州区域纺企采购 31级双 29含杂 2.7%以内机采新棉疆内库 2605 | | | | | 合约基差成交价 1150-1250 元/吨，提货价在 16050-16200 元/吨，较前一日上涨 | | | | | 50-100 元/吨左右。 | | | | | 2、根据美国商业部数据显示，2025 年 11 月美国的服装及服装配饰零售额(季调) | | | | | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 3 日星期周二 | | | 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 期是上半年实施。 | 8、截止到 | 2026 | 年第 | 5 | 周末，国内三大食用油库存总量为 | 199.39 | 万吨，周度下降 | 5.10 | 万吨， | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环比下降 | 2.49%，同比下降 | 2.88%。其中豆油库存为 | 109.12 | 万吨，周度下降 | 0.51 | 万吨，环 | 比下降 | 0.47%，同比增加 | 7.61%；食用棕油库存为 | 63.93 | 万吨，周度下降 | 3.26 | 万吨，环比下 | | | | | | | 降 | 4.85%，同比增加 | 48.26%；菜油库存为 | 26.34 | ...