Price Trends - Apple futures prices have declined for two consecutive trading days, with a drop of 8.85%[2] - Current apple prices in Shaanxi and Shandong regions range from 1.5 to 3.5 yuan per jin, depending on quality[2] Market Sentiment - Overall market procurement sentiment is poor during the dual festival stocking period[2] - The total volume of apples entering storage is lower compared to last year, with a significant portion held by traders[2] Supply Dynamics - Despite high overall quality, market prices for apples have decreased year-on-year[2] - The trading activity for farmers' goods has increased compared to November, but remains lackluster[2]

Investment and Economic Growth - National fixed asset investment from January to November increased by 3.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 3.4%[1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.4% year-on-year in the same period, continuing a downward trend[1] - Broad infrastructure investment (including electricity) grew by 9.7% in November, while manufacturing investment rose by 9.3%[1] Real Estate Market - New commercial housing sales area fell by 14.3% year-on-year from January to November, but the decline narrowed from 15.8% in the previous period[4] - In November, 30 major cities saw a 20% increase in commercial housing sales area, marking the first month of positive year-on-year growth this year[4] - The national second-hand housing price index decreased by 1.13% from October to December, indicating ongoing price stabilization[7] Industrial and Consumer Performance - Industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year in November, surpassing the market expectation of 5.2%[10] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.0% year-on-year in November, falling short of the expected 5.3%[10] - The service industry production index rose by 6.1% year-on-year in November, slightly down from 6.3% in the previous month[12] Employment and Economic Outlook - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in November, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate for migrant agricultural workers[12] - Overall, China's economy showed signs of rebound in November, with expectations of achieving a 5% growth target for the year remaining feasible[12]

Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase from 3% in 2023 to around 4% in 2024[3] - Special long-term government bonds are projected to rise from 1 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, with 1 trillion yuan allocated for state-owned bank capital replenishment and 2 trillion yuan for major projects and social welfare[3] - The new local government special bond quota for 2024 is set at 4 trillion yuan, with an additional 0.5 to 1 trillion yuan expected in 2025[3] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate expected to decrease by approximately 40 basis points from the current 1.5%[4][5] - The aim is to align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price stability targets[4] Domestic Demand and Consumption - There is a strong emphasis on boosting domestic consumption and investment efficiency to counteract external demand shocks, particularly from tariff adjustments by other countries[6] - Policies to support consumption, including expanding the scope and amount of trade-in programs, are expected to continue[6] Real Estate Market - Efforts to stabilize the real estate market are crucial, with a focus on urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, potentially expanding the target of 1 million new units announced earlier[8][9] - The government aims to control new real estate land supply while revitalizing existing land and commercial properties[9] Technological Innovation - The strategy emphasizes leveraging technological innovation to develop a modern industrial system, particularly in high-tech sectors like artificial intelligence, which is seen as pivotal for future competitiveness[7] - The report highlights the importance of the stock market as a channel for financing high-tech enterprises and enhancing consumer confidence[7]

Key Points Industry Overview 1. **Industry Shift**: The industry has shifted from a focus on lithium batteries to aluminum batteries, driven by demand for higher energy density and lower cost. [doc id='1'] 2. **Demand Growth**: Demand for aluminum batteries is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 10-15% over the next few years. [doc id='9'] 3. **Supply Constraints**: The supply of aluminum batteries is expected to remain constrained, leading to higher prices and margins for producers. [doc id='10'] 4. **Capacity Utilization**: Capacity utilization in the aluminum battery industry is expected to improve, reaching over 50% in 2024. [doc id='11'] Greenbloom's Business Segments 1. **New Energy Materials**: Greenbloom's new energy materials business, primarily focused on ternary cathode materials, has seen strong growth in sales and revenue. [doc id='15'] 2. **Recycling**: Greenbloom's recycling business, including battery and scrap car recycling, has experienced significant growth, with a 40% increase in battery recycling volume and a doubling of scrap car recycling volume. [doc id='25'] 3. **Cost Reduction**: Greenbloom has been actively working on cost reduction initiatives, aiming to achieve significant cost savings in the future. [doc id='20'] Competitive Landscape 1. **Industry Concentration**: The aluminum battery industry is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the top three companies holding a significant share of the market. [doc id='11'] 2. **Customer Diversification**: Greenbloom has a diversified customer base, including major battery manufacturers and automotive companies. [doc id='17'] 3. **Resource Advantage**: Greenbloom has a strong resource advantage, with significant investments in mining and processing facilities in Indonesia. [doc id='13'] Financial Outlook 1. **Revenue Growth**: Greenbloom's revenue is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by strong demand for its products and services. [doc id='40'] 2. **Profitability**: Greenbloom's profitability is expected to improve, with the recycling business expected to achieve profitability in 2024. [doc id='37'] 3. **Valuation**: Greenbloom is currently valued at a reasonable level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 22 times. [doc id='40]

conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad, and to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Renee Vangestein. Please go ahead. Thank ...

宏观经济 2024年11月15日 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格证号：F3063825 投资咨询证号：Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greendh. com 格林大华期货投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2024年10月31日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 四季度中国经济增速回升可期 摘要 1-10月全国固定资产投资同比增长3.4%，市场预期3.46%，1-9 月同比增长3.4%。1-10月全国房地产开发投资同比下降10.3%，1-9 月同比下降10.1%。10月广义基建投资（含电力）同比增长10.0%， 10月制造业投资同比增长10%。10月制造业投资和基建投资继续保持 较高增速，房地产投资继续较大幅度负增长。 1-10月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降15.8%，1-9月份 同比下降17.1%，降幅缩减。11月1-14日30大中城市商品房日均成交 面积33万平米，10月是33万平米，9月和8月是23万平米，9月末房地 产新政颁布后，30大中城市新房销售有所回暖，能否持续稳定下来需 要观察。10月份，7 ...

Economic Indicators - In September, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 3.76 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 3.52 trillion yuan, but down 369.2 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - The issuance of RMB loans to the real economy rose by 1.9742 trillion yuan, a decrease of 562.7 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, primarily contributing to the decline in TSF[1] - The net financing of corporate bonds was -192.6 billion yuan, down 257.6 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to high credit bond rates and reduced issuance by local government financing vehicles[1] Monetary Supply - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 6.3%[3] - The narrow money supply (M1) decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, slightly worsening from a 7.3% decline in August[3] - The difference in growth rates between M2 and M1 expanded to 14.2%, up from 13.6% in August, indicating a shift in liquidity preferences[3] Consumer Sentiment - The consumer employment expectation index for August was recorded at 72.2, down from 73.0 in July, indicating a declining trend over six consecutive months[2] - The consumer income expectation index fell to 94.5 in August from 95.0 in July, remaining below the critical value of 100, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment towards increasing debt[2] Government Financing - Government bond net financing increased by 1.5357 trillion yuan in September, up 543.7 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a significant rise in government borrowing[1] - The total balance of government bonds reached 76.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, further highlighting the government's increasing leverage amid weak demand from enterprises and households[3] Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26 signaled strong support for stable growth, suggesting that fiscal policy will likely intensify while monetary policy remains accommodative[3] - There is potential for M1 growth to gradually turn around in the future as fiscal measures are expected to be implemented to address insufficient effective demand[3]

Policy Initiatives - The government plans to implement 1 million sets of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations through monetary compensation, which will help absorb existing inventory of commercial housing[2] - The "white list" of real estate projects has approved loans totaling 2.23 trillion yuan, with plans to increase this to 4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024[2] - The Ministry of Finance aims to expand the scope of special bonds to support land acquisition and the purchase of existing commercial housing, which will help balance supply and demand in the land market[2] Financial Measures - Development and policy financial institutions will provide special loans, and local governments are allowed to issue special government bonds[2] - The central bank is working on allowing policy banks and commercial banks to issue loans to qualified enterprises for acquiring existing land from real estate companies, with necessary special relending support[2] - The meeting did not provide specific scales for the new policies, highlighting challenges in ensuring financing returns balance in the acquisition of existing commercial housing[2] Market Response - The overall performance of the stock and bond markets remained stable during the press conference, indicating limited immediate market reaction to the announcements[2]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Expansion - China is entering a new round of economic expansion, necessitating the release of local government constraints[6] - The fourth quarter will see a significant acceleration in fiscal spending, which is expected to boost industrial product prices, particularly in the black series[9] - The increase in fiscal spending is aimed at recovering the physical volume lost from January to August and achieving the annual fiscal spending targets[9] Group 2: Debt and Local Government Support - A substantial increase in debt limits to support local governments in resolving hidden debts is deemed necessary[5] - The current fiscal challenges stem from the 1990s tax-sharing reform, which has led to a reliance on land and real estate revenues for local governments[5] - The central government aims to replace local government debt with central debt to restore local government vitality[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The announcement of the incremental fiscal amount is expected by the end of October, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[10] - The market has largely anticipated the content of the incremental fiscal policy, leading to limited immediate impact on the equity market[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to stabilize around the 3200-point level, with potential for a new upward trend post-U.S. elections[12]

Group 1: Market Performance - The black sector experienced a significant increase, with rebar rising by 1.88%, iron ore by 2.23%, coking coal by 2.28%, coking by 3.08%, soda ash by 6.35%, and glass by 6.69% during the night session on Friday[3] - The overall increase in the black sector is attributed to expectations of strong fiscal stimulus policies following the Ministry of Finance's press conference on October 12[3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of targeted incremental policy measures to stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, and mitigate risks, including increased debt quotas for local governments to alleviate hidden debt risks[4] - Special government bonds will be issued to support state-owned banks in replenishing core tier one capital, enhancing their risk resistance and credit issuance capabilities[4] Group 3: Industry Impact - The fiscal policies are expected to boost market sentiment in the short term and support the black sector's performance, particularly in real estate and infrastructure[5] - In the real estate sector, measures to stabilize prices and improve demand are anticipated to enhance cash flow for property companies, which may lead to increased steel demand[5] Group 4: Price Predictions - Short-term predictions for steel and iron ore suggest a bullish trend, with rebar support at 3320 and resistance at 3780, while iron ore is expected to fluctuate between 700 and 845[6] - Coking coal and coke are projected to maintain strong support levels at 1400 and 2050, respectively, with potential for further upward movement due to high demand for iron and steel[6]