市场快讯 -- 美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片纯苯预计跟随原料上涨0 纯苯基本面受制于港口高库存压力。上周纯苯港口小幅累库,但速度放缓,需求端下 游开工提升。周末山东成交价格继续回升,短期纯苯价格宽幅偏强震荡,关注美国和 委内瑞拉地缘冲突后续进展,03合约参考区间5420-5650元/吨。后续主要关注港口到 港量和未来美金纯苯市场成交价格。 操作建议: 节前多单继续持有,不建议追高,需警惕突发事件情绪端冲击。 风险提示: 0 2026年1月4 > 假期美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片,纯苯开盘预计跟随高开。 1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进 委内瑞拉"。 2. 基本面情况:10月以来化纤行业反内卷对市场形成托底。上周瓶片供应变化不大, 下游工厂刚性补库为主。新装置预期内投产,对市 ...

市场快讯 -- 美委爆发地缘冲突,甲醇尿素预计偏强运行。 2. 基本面情况:2025年1-11月中国进口委内瑞拉甲醇82.1万吨,占比6.5%。目前国内 甲醇港口和内地均累库,1月中旬以后进口到港量预计减少(伊朗8成以上装置停车) 叠加港口烯烃装置重启计划,供减需增预期下甲醇价格震荡偏强,关注地缘冲突实际 影响,建议偏多思路对待。 > 假期美委爆发地缘冲突,甲醇,尿素开盘预计跟随高开。 2025年1-11月中国出口南美地区尿素68.6万吨(巴西和智利为主),占比14.9%。而委 内瑞拉化肥(尿素和硫酸铵)主要出口巴西,哥伦比亚等地区,预计随着冲突升级国 际化肥价格将迎来上涨,或继续抬升中国出口价格。目前国内尿素企业库存继续下降, 局部受环保预警影响,部分尿素装置减量生产。周末主流尿素工厂最低出厂价1640- 1660元/吨,继续关注地缘冲突实际影响,建议偏多思路对待。 操作建议: 节前多单继续持有,不建议追高。需警惕突发事件情绪端冲击。 风险提示:地缘风险事件消除 原油下跌 从业资格 F03085283 交易咨询:Z0019267 联系方式:wuzhigiao@greendh.com 场。未经我公司同意,任何 ...

1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进入 委内师行"。 2. 基本面情况:2025年1-11月中国进口委内瑞拉甲醇82.1万吨,占比6.5%。目前国内 甲醇港口和内地均累库,1月中旬以后进口到港量预计减少(伊朗8成以上装置停车) 叠加港口烯烃装置重启计划,供减需增预期下甲醇价格震荡偏强,关注地缘冲突实际 影响,建议偏多思路对待。 2025年1-11月中国出口南美地区尿素68.6万吨(巴西和智利为主),占比14.9%。而委 内瑞拉化肥(尿素和硫酸铵)主要出口巴西,哥伦比亚等地区,预计随着冲突升级国 际化肥价格将迎来上涨,或继续抬升中国出口价格。目前国内尿素企业库存继续下降 局部受环保预警影响,部分尿素装置减量生产。周末主流尿素工厂最低出厂价1640- 1660元/吨,继 ...

> 假期美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片,纯苯开盘预计跟随高开。 1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进入 委内瑞拉"。 市场快讯 -- 美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片纯苯预计跟随原料上涨 。 2. 基本面情况:10月以来化纤行业反内卷对市场形成托底。上周瓶片供应变化不大, 下游工厂刚性补库为主。新装置预期内投产,对市场影响不大。关注美国和委内瑞拉 地缘冲突后续进展,短期瓶片价格跟随原料宽幅震荡偏强,预计涨幅低于原料瑞。 纯苯基本面受制于港口高库存压力。上周纯苯港口小幅累库,但速度放缓,需求端下 游开工提升。周末山东成交价格继续回升,短期纯苯价格宽幅偏强震荡,关注美国和 委内瑞拉地缘冲突后续进展,03合约参考区间5420-5650元/吨。后续主要关注港口到 港量和未来美金纯苯市场成交价 ...

时间：2026.1.4 格林大华期货研究院 能化黑色研究中心 证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 美委地缘冲突背景下原油/化工/ 焦煤市场影响分析 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 美委冲突背景和经过 据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成 功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人，并带离委内瑞 拉。同日，有美国官员表示，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗于1月3日凌晨被美军最高 特种任务部队三角洲部队的成员抓获。马杜罗被指控犯有"毒品恐怖主义阴 谋罪、可卡因走私阴谋罪、持有机枪及破坏性装置罪，以及针对美国的持有 机枪及破坏性装置阴谋罪"。马杜罗及其夫人将很快在美国法庭接受美国司 法审判。 特朗普表示，美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。 据此前报道，这次空袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称，不排除 美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重 建石油基础设施，将让美国石油公司进入委内瑞拉"。 国际社会纷纷表态谴责美国霸权侵略行为。 来源：公开信息，格林大华期货研究院整理 PART 01 地缘冲突对能化产业影响 | 油价格将产生利 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: 2026 New Year's Day Holiday Market Opening Forecast Report [2] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [3] - Research Institution: Green大华 Futures Research Institute [3] 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The stock index market is expected to have a good start on the first trading day after the New Year's Day holiday, with overseas capital accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets and funds expected to enter the market quickly. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - Precious metals are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [6]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, different varieties have different trends, such as the overall bearish trend of oils, the bottom - oscillating pattern of double - meal, the long - term bearish view of sugar and jujubes, and different support and resistance levels for other varieties [16][17][18][19]. - In the energy and chemical market, the long - term crude oil price may be under bearish pressure, while methanol, urea, bottle chips, and pure benzene are recommended to be treated with a bullish mindset, and the rubber system can be observed or a small number of BR call options can be held [34][35][36][37]. - In the steel market, it is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried; iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline, and short positions can be pre - arranged; for coking coal and coke, it is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently [55][56][57]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, regional supply shortages will push up copper prices to some extent; aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate around certain prices after the holiday [71][72][73][74]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index - On January 2, the Hong Kong stock market opened, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.7% and the Hang Seng Technology Index soaring 4%, indicating that overseas capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - Bullish on growth - style indexes represented by the CSI 500 index [7]. Treasury Bond - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations. The manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the central bank will adjust monetary policy according to the situation. The treasury bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom on the last trading day before the holiday [5][10]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. The CME Group raised the margin for precious metals, and geopolitical risks have increased [6][13]. Agricultural and Livestock Three Oils and Two Meals - Oils: The short - term long positions held before the holiday should be closed, and the overall trend is bearish. Palm oil has a clear bearish trend, domestic soybean oil may be somewhat resistant to decline, and rapeseed oil should be operated bearishly intraday [16][22]. - Double - meal: Affected by factors such as tightened customs policies, the collapse of overseas soybean costs, and the pressure of a bumper harvest in South America, double - meal may decline to some extent but will be supported at the previous low, showing a bottom - oscillating pattern [16]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The ICE raw sugar declined significantly during the holiday. Considering the supply pressure in the international sugar market, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to run weakly after the holiday [26]. - Jujubes: The inventory is at a high level, and the market is turning its attention to demand. The jujube futures price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the near future [26]. Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton: Affected by factors such as holiday trading volume and the strengthening of the US dollar, the ICE cotton futures declined. Considering the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices and its possible transmission to cotton prices, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current position, but the bottom support is strong [29]. - Apple: The overall trading in the apple market is dull, and the snow during the holiday has affected transportation. In the long term, the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate has not been resolved, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [29]. - Log: The supply pressure is controllable, the demand is weaker but better than the same period last year. The low inventory supports the price, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets and the cost limit the downward space. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, and interval operations are recommended [29]. Corn, Pig, and Egg - Corn: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend during the holiday. The market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [31]. - Pig: The pig price weakened after the holiday. The near - month contracts are expected to open lower and then repair, and the contracts in the second half of next year may continue to oscillate [31][32]. - Egg: The egg price was stable during the holiday. The futures price is expected to open relatively stable, but the near - month contracts are expected to decline due to the pessimistic expectation of the spot price in February. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts [32]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The US intervention in Venezuela's oil production may put downward pressure on long - term oil prices. Although the current geopolitical conflict has caused a certain risk premium, the impact will be diluted by the large supply surplus [34][41]. Methanol and Urea - Methanol: With the expectation of reduced supply and increased demand, the methanol price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][44]. - Urea: The price of international fertilizers may rise due to the conflict, which may drive up China's export price. The domestic urea inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][46]. Bottle Chips and Pure Benzene - Bottle chips: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly following the raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela [36][49]. - Pure benzene: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. The 03 contract reference range is 5420 - 5650 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela, the port arrival volume, and the future US dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction price [36][51]. Rubber System - It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of BR call options [37]. Steel Steel - Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried [55][60]. Iron Ore - The iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline. Short positions can be pre - arranged, or a strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore can be tried. The price may be supported by factors such as the increase in daily hot metal production and the expected replenishment of steel mills [56][65]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of price cuts for coke may be implemented on January 1. The coke price mainly fluctuates with the coking coal price. It is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently, and attention should be paid to the main and far - month contracts of coking coal [57][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The regional supply shortage will push up the copper price to some extent. The market's expectation of a 75BP interest rate cut in 2026 is uncertain, which may increase the volatility of the copper price [71][77]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Caustic Soda - Aluminum: The price is expected to oscillate around 21,990 yuan/ton after the holiday. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory depletion and overseas market transmission [72][80]. - Alumina: The price is expected to oscillate around 3,246 yuan/ton after the holiday, and the policy support is limited [73][80]. - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend after the holiday, and the trend is likely to be linked to the sentiment of the electrolytic aluminum industry chain [74][79].

研究员：侯建 纪晓云 从业资格 F3066027 交易咨询：Z0011402 联系电话： (010)56711796 根据掌上煤焦提供的288口岸通关数据，截止到12月30日，12月日均通关车辆为1457车，为3年以来的月均最高。从左图不难看出，288 口岸库存与焦煤期货主力合约价格存在较大的负相关关系。右图的月均通关在8月后持续上升，表明蒙媒基本吃到了反内卷政策的红利。 但"已有之事后必再有。已行之事后必再行"。在2025年动力煤价格指数"618-831"政策调控区间的预期下，2026年的乐焦煤现实能。 否站稳,还需要关注进口煤边际定价能力和政策出手的节点。 负责声明，本报告中的信息地来源于公开资枓、我公司的这些信息的这就性彩票推行《作在何报》、不知证报告信息已说最新女更、也不知近分析网站出近任何建议死会发生任何交叉。在任何情况下、报告中的信息或所发达的意见并不如成活出期 娱乐研买卖的比价或价价。在任何情况下，我公司不就报告中的任何内容对任何没奇得就出任何形式的型标、投资者担收投资、投资风险电竞竞吧。我公司可能发出与东招告高7万一颗效期检发告。本报告展份所何本人的意见与结论，并不代表 我公司的立场。未经我公 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 研究员：张毅驰 从业资格：F03108196 交易咨询资格：Z0021480 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 沪铜主力合约 夜盘收盘价 CU2602 99220 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 3.2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8%。沪铜次主力合约 CU2603 夜盘收于 99340 元/吨，涨幅 3.3%。截止北京时间 20 25-12-31 06:00，COMEX 铜主力合约 HGH26E 收盘价为 5.7465 美元/磅（按汇率 换算为 铜主力合约 6.9901 88555 元/吨），较上一交易日上涨 3.16%。LME CA03M | | | | | E 收于 12673.5 美元/吨（按汇率 6.9901 换算为 88589 元/吨），涨幅 3.99%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the gold and silver markets showed significant upward trends. The outlook for the precious metals market in 2026 remains optimistic. The continued fiscal expansion of major countries, the expected further decline of the US dollar, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support the investment demand for gold. The industrial and investment demand for silver may also remain strong [2]. Summary by Directory Part I: Review of Precious Metals Market Gold Market Review - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold has experienced three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce, a nearly 24 - fold increase. From 1980 - 2000, it was a bear market. From 2001 - 2011, the price soared from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce, a 650% increase. From 2016 - 2025, it entered a new bull market [6]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the implementation of the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the London spot gold price rose from $2610.85/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $4500/ounce at the end of 2025, a cumulative increase of over 70%. The SHFE gold futures also showed a similar trend [13]. Silver Market Review - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, international silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, it soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce. From 1980 - 2000, it plummeted. From 2001 - 2011, it rose from $4/ounce to $49/ounce. From 2021 - 2025, it was driven by multiple factors to break through $80/ounce [18]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: The London spot silver price rose from $28.91/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $80/ounce at the end of 2025, with a maximum annual increase of over 170%. The SHFE silver also showed a similar upward trend [23]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices Impact of the US Economic Situation on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle is one of the underlying logics supporting the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, weakening the yields of traditional assets and increasing the attractiveness of gold [31]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a certain growth rate, but the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the medium - and long - term fiscal prospects, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [33]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [49]. Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices - In recent years, global central banks have continuously increased their gold reserves. In 2025, central banks' gold - buying pace accelerated in the third quarter. In 2026, the pace of central bank gold allocation may slow down [51]. Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold for risk - aversion. They also affect the supply and demand pattern of gold [56]. Part III: Analysis of Precious Metals Supply and Demand Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, and imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons. The global total gold supply in the first three quarters was 3717.4 tons [59]. - **Demand Analysis**: The global total gold demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was 3717.4 tons, showing a slight upward trend. China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year - on - year [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHFE gold inventory continued to rise, while COMEX gold inventory remained stable after an initial increase and then gradually declined slightly [65]. Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver supply in 2025 will increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [69]. - **Demand Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver demand in 2025 will decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces. Industrial demand will decrease slightly, while investment demand will increase by 7% [75]. - **Inventory Analysis**: SHFE, COMEX, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories all showed significant fluctuations in 2025 [78]. Part IV: Arbitrage and Position Analysis of the Precious Metals Market Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Domestic Gold Spot - Futures Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with occasional positive values presenting arbitrage opportunities [88]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large declines presenting arbitrage opportunities [91]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply, and its future direction is difficult to judge after breaking through the previous range [95]. - **Analysis of SHFE Gold Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE gold futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased with the rise in gold prices [97]. Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with large positive spreads appearing at the end of the year [106]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large fluctuations [108]. - **Analysis of SHFE Silver Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE silver futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased significantly with the rise in silver prices [111]. Part V: Analysis and Strategies of Precious Metals Options - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in recent years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while that of silver options shows more fluctuations, especially increasing when the silver price rises sharply [121]. - Different options strategies can be considered according to different price and volatility expectations, such as buying at - the - money call options, selling out - of - the - money put options, selling strangles, and buying straddles [122]. Part VI: Seasonal Analysis of Precious Metals - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals have a relatively high probability of rising in March, April, and October and a relatively high probability of falling in June [137]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Prediction of the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [146]. - **Orientation of US Government Policies in 2026 and Their Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, and the government will maintain a high fiscal deficit rate. The new Fed chairman may be more dovish, which is conducive to the rise of precious metals prices [150]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold investment demand increased significantly. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic, and the strategic value of allocating gold is still stable [151]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and $35/ounce [155]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [160].

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