Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures have declined for four consecutive trading days. Holiday - season light trading and a stronger dollar have pressured the cotton market. However, geopolitical turmoil during the holiday benefits crude oil prices, which may be transmitted to cotton prices. In general, short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current level, but the bottom support is solid and the downside space is limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settlement price is 64.32, down 3 points; 5 - month is 65.64, up 1 point; 7 - month is 66.85, up 1 point, with about 37,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton total trading volume is 450,502 lots, and the open interest is 1,106,314 lots. Settlement prices are 14,605 yuan/ton for January, 14,550 yuan/ton for May, and 14,725 yuan/ton for September [2] Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% decrease from the previous month (1,822 tons) and a 28.3% decrease year - on - year (2,374 tons). From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan has cumulatively imported about 6,692 tons of cotton, a 32.5% decrease year - on - year (9,912 tons) [2] - From December 12 to 18, 2025, the United States graded and inspected 199,300 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 83.7% of the lint meeting ICE futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 2,424,300 tons, and 82.7% of the lint met the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of Indian cotton for the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons of lint, mainly from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. CCI auctioned about 72,000 tons on the 19th. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] Market Logic - ICE cotton futures have declined for four consecutive days due to holiday - season light trading and a stronger dollar. Geopolitical turmoil benefits crude oil prices, which may affect cotton prices. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust, but the bottom support is solid [2] Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 节前主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌28元至5463元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5350 | | | | | 元/吨（环比+10），山东地区现货价格 5236 元/吨（环比+25）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓增加 812 手至 1.8 万手，空头持仓增加 1114 至 2.31 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 | | | | | 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 | | | | | 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，截至 2025 年 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook is turning weaker [1] Core View of the Report - The global economy is starting to weaken as the U.S. makes continuous policy mistakes and returns to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a far - reaching impact on major asset classes [2] Summary by Related Catalog 1. Important News - Goldman Sachs' 2026 top ten investment themes focus on AI infrastructure investment shifting to in - data - center and power suppliers, pharmaceutical R & D moving from weight - loss drugs to the cardiovascular field, and China's economic growth exceeding market expectations driven by technological progress and exports. Political uncertainties such as Fed policy and tariff rulings will dominate the market in the first half of the year [1] - U.S. officials confirmed that Trump ordered air strikes on locations in Venezuela including military facilities, and Venezuelan President Maduro declared a state of emergency [1] - In 2025, precious metal prices rose significantly: gold (+65%), silver (+148%), platinum (+127%), and palladium (+78%), with gold and silver achieving their best annual performance since 1979 [1] - SpaceX is valued at $800 billion, OpenAI is negotiating a new round of financing at a target valuation of $750 billion, and Anthropic is in talks for a new round of financing with a target valuation over $300 billion. A successful IPO of any of the three giants in 2026 would surpass the total fundraising of about 200 U.S. IPOs in 2025 [1] - Starting from January 8, the annual re - weighting of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and over $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window. There will be a 13% sell - off of the total open interest in the Comex silver market in the next two weeks [1] - Tesla's Q4 deliveries decreased 16% year - on - year to 418,227 units, lower than the estimate of 440,907 units. In contrast, BYD's battery - electric vehicle sales increased in Q4 and the full - year, with nearly 2.26 million units delivered in the full - year compared to Tesla's 1.64 million units [1] - U.S. top AI labs like OpenAI, xAI, and Google are building their own gas - fired power plants to solve the power problem for AI computing power [1] - U.S. President Trump threatened to interfere in the Iranian unrest and also threatened to support Israel to strike Iran if it develops its ballistic missile program again [1] 2. Global Economic Logic - Nomura expects Fed uncertainties to peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from U.S. assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, bought $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarted the expansion of its balance sheet. Trump may fire Fed Chair Powell and sue him for "gross negligence" [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The U.S. released a new National Security Strategy, abandoning global hegemony, adjusting economic relations with China, and revitalizing its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation is intensifying, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.0% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head said the company must double AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold growth in the next 4 to 5 years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI race due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists think the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [1] - The investment rating for the jujube sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [4] - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillation", with synthetic rubber being "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend" [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, the international sugar market faces supply pressure due to increased sugar production in India and the expected high - yield in the new Brazilian season. Although Thailand's new - season sugar production is lower than expected, the overall fundamentals of the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar futures will run weakly after the opening [1] - For jujubes, the sample inventory of jujubes has entered the seasonal destocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negatives are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has support at the previous low, but there is insufficient positive news in the medium - to - long - term, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [4] - For rubber, natural rubber has limited fundamental driving factors in the short term. The price may be in a consolidation state after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the impact of synthetic rubber trends. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, and the sudden situation in Venezuela may boost the BR futures price [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of SR601 contract was 5,251 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.17% [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 5,293 yuan/ton. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase year - on - year. The number of sugar mills in operation increased by 12 to 504. As of January 1, 2026, 195 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, had produced 492,000 tons of sugar. As of December 29, 2025, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 18.83% year - on - year. Before the holiday, the number of sugar warrants in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged at 5,182 [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the SR605 contract [1] Jujube - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of CJ601 contract was 8,965 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9,230 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.38% [4] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 210 tons week - on - week to 15,898 tons. The wholesale price of Hebei's top - grade jujubes remained unchanged at 9.52 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1 to 8. The number of jujube warrants increased by 778 to 2,120 [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract [4] Rubber - Related - **Market Review**: As of December 31, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15,605 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%, the closing price of NR2603 contract was 12,655 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the closing price of BR2602 contract was 11,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.39% [5] - **Important Information**: The price of raw materials in Thailand was not available during the holiday. Some enterprises had short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.87% to 524,800 tons, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 1.7% to 1.201 million tons. The price of butadiene in Shandong and East China was stable, and the market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were also stable [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Overall, adopt a wait - and - see approach or hold a small number of long - call options for BR [5]

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 节前尿素主力合约 2605 价格 1749 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 10 元至 1710 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 2737 手至 15.68 万手，空头持仓减少 1080 手至 | | | | | 18.85 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.47 万吨，较上一工日增加 0.08 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 1.82 万吨；今日开工率 80.52%，较去年同期 78.81%回升 1.71%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 101.92 万吨，环比-4.97 万吨，减少 4.65%。 | | | | | 尿素港口样本库存量 17.2 万吨，环比-0.56 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前瓶片主力价格下跌 30 元至 6016 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6050 元/吨（+30）， 华南瓶片价格 6090 元/吨（+30）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1678 手至 5.03 万手， 空头持仓减少 2183 手至 5.32 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上 ...

Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 17 元至 2216 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格 上涨 48 元至 2250 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 61411 手至 43.6 万手，空头持 仓减少 43856 手至 53.1 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震荡偏 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.74 万吨，较上一期数据增加 6.49 吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 3.98 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 2.51 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 42.26 万吨，较上期增加 1.86 万吨，环比增 4.61 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 上周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.17%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下 跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周三央行开展了 5288 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 260 亿元逆 回购到期，当日合计净投放 5028 亿元。1 月 4 日央行开展 365 亿元 7 天逆回购操作， | | | | | 当日日有 2701 亿元 7 天期和 2000 亿元 14 天期逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼 4336 | | | | | 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：跨年之后，1 月 4 日银行间市场正常交易，资金利率全线回落，DR001 | | | | | 全天加权平均为 1.24%；DR007 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 1 月 5 日星期周一 | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 31 日，元旦假期前，植物油走势整体谨慎，全日振荡走势为主。 豆油主力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market is shifting from valuation repair to profit - driven, with geographical diversification starting to take effect. It is recommended to stay invested and strengthen diversified allocation [2]. - China's stock market cycle is transitioning from 'expectation - driven' to 'profit - driven'. Corporate profits may grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10% [3]. - In 2026, the risk of a significant rise in China's stock market is much higher than a significant fall, and there are multiple positive factors in the Chinese market [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Morning Session Notice - **Market Performance**: On the last trading day before the holiday, some funds withdrew for risk - avoidance, causing adjustments in some indices. The aerospace sector rose again. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.04 trillion yuan with a moderate decline. The CSI 500 index closed at 7465 points, up 6 points (0.09%); the CSI 1000 index closed at 7595 points, down 2 points (- 0.02%); the SSE 50 index closed at 3031 points, down 5 points (- 0.18%); and the CSI 300 index closed at 4629 points, down 21 points (- 0.46%). The funds in stock index futures of CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 had net outflows of 5.4 billion, 4.8 billion, 2.1 billion, and 10 million yuan respectively [1]. - **Sector and ETF Performance**: Among industry and theme ETFs, satellite ETF, general aviation ETF, etc. led the gains, while dual - innovation ETF, energy - storage battery ETF, etc. led the losses. Among sector indices of the two markets, hotel catering, cloud gaming, etc. led the gains, and chemical fiber, communication equipment, etc. led the losses [1]. Important Information - Policy: The 'Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - scale Equipment Updating and Consumer Goods Trade - in in 2026' was issued, and the 'Announcement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Launching the Pilot of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust Funds' was released [1]. - Market Trends in 2025: The STAR 100 index rose 54.63%, the ChiNext index rose 49.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 29.87%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 18.41%. The total market value of A - shares reached 118.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.30 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year. Precious metal prices such as gold (+65%), silver (+148%), etc. rose significantly, and the number and overseas authorization transaction amount of approved innovative drugs in China reached record highs [1][2]. - Company News: TSMC's 2nm process was mass - produced as planned and its stock price hit a record high; Samsung Electronics' stock rose 7.2% due to the recognition of HBM4 products. Tesla's Q4 deliveries decreased by 16% year - on - year, while BYD's battery - electric vehicle sales increased [1][2]. - International News: High - profile companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic have high valuations. The US launched air strikes on Venezuela, and Venezuela declared a state of emergency [2]. Market Logic - Some funds withdrew for risk - avoidance on the last trading day before the holiday, causing index adjustments and a rise in the aerospace sector. High - end investment banks believe that global stock markets are in the 'optimistic stage' of a bull market, and the market is shifting from valuation repair to profit - driven. There was a net inflow of 83.1 billion US dollars into ETFs investing in Chinese assets in 2025, with the technology sector receiving the most foreign investment. The market expects insurance, wealth management, and pensions to be the incremental funds in 2026, and more international funds are looking at the AI track outside the US [2]. Future Outlook - China's stock market cycle is moving from 'expectation - driven' to 'profit - driven'. The total scale of listed ETFs in the whole market increased by 56% in 2025. Global funds are increasing their investment in China's stock market, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a key area for global AI investment. The risk of a sharp rise in China's stock market in 2026 is higher than a sharp fall. Overseas capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets, and the RMB is appreciating. All kinds of funds are expected to enter the market quickly [3]. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - type indices as the main targets on the first trading day of January. - For stock index option trading, open call options on the CSI 1000 index when the opportunity arises [3].