证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券Ⅱ 财通证券（601108） 2025 年中报点评：Q2 投资收益大幅改善，经 纪业务收入增长超 40% 买入（维持） 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 罗宇康 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,517 | 6,286 | 6,724 | 7,162 | 7,515 | | 同比（%） | 35.03% | -3.55% | 6.97% | 6.51% | 4.93% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,252 | 2,340 | 2,494 | 2,659 | 2,791 | | 同比（%） | 48.43% | 3.90% | 6.61% | 6.58% | 4.98% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.57 | 0.60 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a significant net profit growth of over 90% due to active domestic and international markets [1] - The report highlights a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 12.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.0%, and a net profit of 4.33 billion yuan, up 94.4% [8] - The brokerage business saw a substantial revenue increase of 49.9% year-on-year, contributing to 20.7% of total revenue [8] - The investment income, including fair value gains, reached 7.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70.7% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 35.446 billion yuan, with a decline of 5.22% year-on-year, while 2024 is expected to see a further decline of 6.42% [1] - The company forecasts a rebound in net profit to 10.078 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 76.98% compared to 2024 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 2.09 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.25 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a robust performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 14.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.177 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year. The interim dividend per share is 1.38 HKD, a 10.4% increase, with a payout ratio of approximately 59.6% [9] - The growth is driven by strong demand in the leisurewear segment, particularly in the US market, with significant revenue contributions from major clients such as Uniqlo, Adidas, Nike, and Puma [9] - The company is expanding its vertical integration with the construction of a new fabric factory in Vietnam, expected to start production by the end of 2025, and a new garment factory in Cambodia that began operations in March 2025 [9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 24.970 billion yuan in 2023, 28.663 billion yuan in 2024, 32.019 billion yuan in 2025, 35.258 billion yuan in 2026, and 38.692 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -10.12%, 14.79%, 11.71%, 10.11%, and 9.74% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.557 billion yuan in 2023, 6.241 billion yuan in 2024, 6.583 billion yuan in 2025, 7.301 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.086 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.12%, 36.94%, 5.49%, 10.90%, and 10.76% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 3.03 yuan in 2023, 4.15 yuan in 2024, 4.38 yuan in 2025, 4.86 yuan in 2026, and 5.38 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company’s P/E ratios are expected to be 18.45 in 2023, 13.47 in 2024, 12.77 in 2025, 11.51 in 2026, and 10.40 in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has seen a steady increase in market share and is comprehensively laying out new technologies [1] - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 10,290 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 58.21% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 442.08 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13% [1] - The company is expected to maintain stable market share while facing industry competition and processing fee declines [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 12,488 million RMB (21.35% YoY growth) - 2025: 14,240 million RMB (14.03% YoY growth) - 2026: 15,810 million RMB (11.02% YoY growth) - 2027: 17,854 million RMB (12.93% YoY growth) [1][9] - Net profit projections for the parent company are as follows: - 2024: 418.01 million RMB - 2025: 420.47 million RMB - 2026: 586.88 million RMB - 2027: 792.40 million RMB [1][9] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: - 2024: 1.73 RMB - 2025: 1.74 RMB - 2026: 2.42 RMB - 2027: 3.27 RMB [1][9] Market and Operational Insights - The company has achieved a breakthrough in BC slurry sales, with market share exceeding 50% in the P region and significant advancements in the N region [8] - The company has also initiated small-scale shipments of copper paste to major clients, with plans to launch second-generation equipment in H2 2025 [8] - The company’s operating cash flow for H1 2025 was -11 billion RMB, a decline of 108.6% YoY, indicating challenges in cash management [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, particularly highlighting investment opportunities in PCB equipment and undervalued high-growth engineering machinery [1]. Core Insights - The PCB equipment sector is expected to benefit significantly from the increasing demand for high-end HDI boards driven by AI computing server needs, with a projected market value growth of 33% year-on-year in 2024 [2][3]. - The engineering machinery sector is poised for sustained performance due to a cyclical upturn, with domestic excavator sales increasing by 22.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The oil service equipment market is entering a performance realization phase, driven by high demand in the Middle East, with projected revenue growth for leading companies like Jerry and Neway [5]. Summary by Sections PCB Equipment - Major PCB manufacturers are planning significant expansions in high-end HDI production capacity, with investments exceeding 60 billion yuan from companies like Shenghong Technology and Huadian [2]. - The global HDI board market is expected to grow at a rate of 18.8% in 2024, significantly outpacing the overall PCB industry growth of 5.8% [2][3]. - Key equipment segments to watch include drilling, exposure, and plating, with specific companies like Dazhu CNC and Xinqi Microelectronics highlighted for their roles in these areas [3][20]. Engineering Machinery - The domestic market is expected to maintain a 2-3 year upturn, with significant sales growth in excavators and loaders, supported by improved funding and replacement logic [4]. - The performance of leading companies such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG is expected to continue improving, with notable revenue and profit growth reported [4]. - The upcoming large-scale infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River project, are anticipated to further boost demand for engineering machinery [25][26]. Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is experiencing a boom due to high demand in the Middle East, with significant investments projected in energy projects [5][38]. - Companies like Jerry and Neway are expected to see substantial revenue growth, with Jerry's revenue growth projected at 49% in Q2 2025 [5]. - The market for oil service equipment in the Middle East is expected to reach a scale of over 100 billion USD, indicating significant growth potential for Chinese companies [5][38].

Overall Analysis - In Q2 2025, the overall A-share market experienced a decline in profitability, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.41% for net profit attributable to shareholders, down from 2.57% in H1 2025 [11][12] - The revenue growth for the entire A-share market in H1 2025 was 0.21%, with Q2 showing a slight improvement to 0.49% [12][19] - The return on equity (ROE) for the non-financial and non-oil sectors stabilized at 6.26% in Q2 2025, indicating a need for further observation regarding upward elasticity [28][31] Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest year-on-year net profit growth in Q2 2025 included comprehensive services (+239.7%), steel (+82.2%), electronics (+27.6%), and electric equipment (+24.6%) [3][24] - The real estate, electric equipment, and defense industries showed improvements in net profit growth compared to Q1 2025 [3][24] - The TMT sector (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) demonstrated strong performance, with electronics and computing sectors showing significant improvements [3][24] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow showed a year-on-year improvement in Q2 2025, although overall cash flow levels remained low compared to the past decade [12][19] - The financing cash flow indicated a reduction in corporate debt repayment pressure, while investment cash flow remained stable [12][19] Dividend Distribution - As of August 30, 2025, 813 listed companies had disclosed and implemented dividends, with a total dividend payout of 642.8 billion yuan, reflecting an increase from 2024 [4][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 performance was below expectations, with revenue of 39.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.41%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.97%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.19% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.02% [7] - The company's gross margin in Q2 2025 was 16.84%, a decrease of 2.66 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to price reductions from downstream customers [7] - The company is expanding its product offerings and accelerating its globalization strategy, with significant competitive advantages in cost control and service responsiveness [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 74.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.01%, and a net profit of 4.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.80% [7] - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 17.02 billion yuan, 20.26 billion yuan, and 23.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 10.88 billion yuan, 13.50 billion yuan, and 16.63 billion yuan [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are 2.23 yuan, 2.77 yuan, and 3.41 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.37, 18.03, and 14.63, respectively [7]

Core Insights - The current market trend is focused on AI applications, particularly in the hardware sector, with significant gains observed in overseas optical modules and PCBs since June, followed by a resurgence in domestic computing power led by Cambrian in mid-August [1][2] - The report suggests that while the computing power market is not expected to end soon, there is growing profit-taking pressure, leading to a cautious sentiment among risk-averse investors [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring downstream applications as a viable investment strategy, particularly in sectors like AI+ innovative drugs, AI+ military, AIGC, edge AI, humanoid robots, and intelligent driving [2][3] Market Dynamics - The lag in downstream AI applications is attributed to a lack of short-term certainty, with no breakout products or smooth business models emerging, resulting in insufficient visibility for listed companies [2][3] - Historical trends from the "Internet+" era indicate that the eventual explosion of AI applications is inevitable, with the potential for greater market space compared to upstream hardware [2][3] - The report highlights that the current market environment, characterized by ample liquidity, could trigger significant movements in AI applications if upstream hardware experiences a correction [2][3] Historical Context - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave and the "Internet+" trend from a decade ago, noting that the latter saw a transition from hardware-led growth to application-driven expansion [3][4] - The timeline of the "Internet+" boom from 2013 to 2015 illustrates that the application side experienced a longer duration of growth compared to the hardware sector, suggesting a similar trajectory for AI applications [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends positioning in AI application sectors as a "call option," suggesting proactive investments in areas with mid-term certainty in industry logic [2][3][17] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include AI+ innovative drugs, AI+ military, AIGC, humanoid robots, and intelligent driving, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI trend [20][17] Data Insights - As of June 2025, the average daily token consumption in China surpassed 30 trillion, reflecting a 300-fold increase since early 2024, while active users of AI-native apps reached 270 million, marking a 536.8% year-on-year growth [8][10] - The report provides a comparative analysis of performance across various sectors, indicating that upstream hardware has significantly outperformed downstream applications since the onset of the current market dynamics [30][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 showed a sequential improvement, with revenue reaching 7.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.26% [7] - The heat management business is expanding into liquid cooling, securing 1.5 billion yuan in orders, which includes products for major clients such as Huawei and NVIDIA [7] - Despite a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, the company is expected to benefit from new orders and product developments, maintaining a positive outlook for future growth [7] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 12.935 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.08% [7] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 19.55%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 10.01%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [7] Product Segment Performance - Revenue from shock absorbers was 2.04 billion yuan, down 4.83% year-on-year, while automotive electronics revenue surged by 52.06% to 1.075 billion yuan [7] - The heat management system generated 980 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.72% [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is adjusted to 3.358 billion yuan, down from a previous estimate of 3.554 billion yuan [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 32, 25, and 19 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 showed significant improvement, with revenue of 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.29% [8] - The company's energy storage and overseas expansion are entering a harvest period, with energy storage revenue reaching approximately 300 million yuan in H1 2025, showing significant growth [8] - The company has made progress in magnesium alloy applications and is focusing on lightweight structures for humanoid robots, which may provide continuous incremental growth [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.834 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.54% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 499.87 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.09% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.52 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.63 [1] - The company’s net profit margin for Q2 2025 improved to 10.0%, with a sales gross margin of 22.75% [8]