证券研究报告·公司深度研究·光伏设备 杭氧股份（002430） 空分设备构筑基本盘，工业气体业务成新增 长曲线 增持（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13,309 | 13,716 | 16,169 | 18,069 | 19,822 | | 同比（%） | 3.95 | 3.06 | 17.88 | 11.76 | 9.70 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,216.10 | 922.36 | 1,156.58 | 1,294.03 | 1,484.02 | | 同比（%） | 0.48 | (24.15) | 25.39 | 11.88 | 14.68 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.24 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 1.32 | 1.52 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.77 | 30.02 | 23.94 | 21.40 | 18.66 | [Table_Tag] ...

Group 1: Policy Insights - The joint policy issued by six ministries aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, marking a significant shift in consumption policy since the Fourth Plenary Session[6] - By 2027, the goal is to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots, indicating a strong focus on new consumption[7] - The policy emphasizes the application of new technologies and models, expanding the supply of unique and new products, and fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats[6] Group 2: New Consumption Characteristics - New consumption is characterized by a focus on emotional value and technological content, with consumers increasingly valuing emotional experiences over mere functionality[14] - The rise of short video platforms and the experience economy is reshaping both online and offline consumption scenarios, enhancing consumer engagement and satisfaction[16] - The Z generation and younger elderly populations are becoming the main consumer forces, driving demand for products that align with their values and emotional needs[26] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition from an incremental consumption market to a high-quality development phase is driven by the need to address product homogeneity and enhance consumer experience[18] - The increasing middle-income population, projected to exceed 400 million by 2025, is expected to provide sustained momentum for consumption growth[20] - New consumption brands like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Laopuhuang are thriving due to their unique IPs and precise market positioning, demonstrating strong revenue growth[41]

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The macro environment is influenced by both domestic and overseas factors, with improved domestic demand data but a decline in manufacturing PMI in October affecting market confidence [1][13] - The dual uncertainties in the macro environment have led to a strong risk-averse sentiment among investors, causing the index to shift downward and enter a phase of low-volume consolidation [1][13] - Policy support through liquidity measures and industry guidance has provided a stabilizing effect on the market, with fiscal issuance and monetary continuation effectively countering funding disturbances [1][13] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The consumer technology sector has shown structural divergence in earnings reports, with companies like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba facing profit declines due to intensified competition, while Tencent and Xiaomi have improved profitability through international expansion and premiumization [1][13] - AI technology breakthroughs are opening new paths for commercialization, with differences in corporate profitability becoming a key variable affecting market expectations [1][13] Group 3: Index Outlook - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to maintain a bottom consolidation and upward bias in December 2025, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [1][13] - The Nasdaq 100 Index is projected to experience a volatile upward trend in December 2025, driven by AI industry developments and commercial validation [4][15] - The gold market is anticipated to remain supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, with geopolitical risks and inflation data influencing price movements [5][17] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Andy Su has reported a revenue increase of 13.67% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, although net profit has slightly declined due to rising raw material costs and competitive pressures [10][11] - Yutong Bus has seen an increase in sales in November, with expectations for a year-end tail effect, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected revenue growth of 17% for 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is implementing a "dual pillar" strategy to enhance its global business development, focusing on solidifying its leadership in the methionine market while expanding its high-value specialty products [7] - The Quanzhou solid methionine project is progressing well, expected to be operational by 2027, which will support the company's global capacity optimization [7] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 13.67% year-on-year, while net profit slightly decreased by 1.29% due to rising raw material costs and product price declines [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 15,534 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.83%, and is expected to grow to 21,718 million yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,204 million yuan in 2024, with a significant increase to 1,701 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 20.84% [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.45 yuan in 2024 to 0.63 yuan in 2027 [1][8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a global leader in the methionine industry, with a strong focus on research and development to drive future growth [7] - The integration of resources from Sinochem in the Quanzhou project enhances cost competitiveness, leveraging location advantages [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant transformation in the global energy network, driven by dual changes in supply and demand, with a focus on carbon reduction and the AI computing revolution [3][12] - The energy supply side is undergoing a deep restructuring due to carbon neutrality goals, leading to an increased share of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and nuclear power [3][12] - The demand side is experiencing a qualitative shift in energy consumption driven by AI applications, including AI training, data centers, and consumer AI devices, which significantly alters electricity demand [3][12] Group 2 - The report outlines a comprehensive investment narrative framework termed "source-network-load-storage," which encapsulates the entire energy production, transmission, consumption, and regulation chain [10] - Key investment themes include clean energy supply, smart grid construction, AI infrastructure investment, and energy storage solutions, indicating a robust future capital expenditure trajectory [10][11] - The report identifies specific catalysts for investment in the first and second halves of 2026, including advancements in photovoltaic technology, nuclear power, and AI chip development [14] Group 3 - The report discusses the structural dynamics of convertible bond supply, emphasizing the importance of industry supply-demand mismatches and the cyclical nature of capital expenditures [18][19] - It notes that the primary driver for issuing convertible bonds is capacity expansion, particularly during industry upturns when companies seek to capitalize on growth opportunities [21] - The cyclical nature of convertible bond issuance is linked to industry performance, with a tendency for increased issuance during periods of high industry profitability and demand [36][39] Group 4 - The report indicates a significant contraction in the convertible bond market in 2025, with a notable number of bonds maturing or being redeemed, leading to a supply shortage [39] - It suggests that the current supply shortage is a result of multiple factors, including a rebound in industry sentiment, a decline in issuance willingness, and regulatory changes affecting refinancing [41] - The report anticipates that once necessary adjustments are made, a new wave of convertible bond issuance may emerge as companies seek to expand capacity in a recovering market [41] Group 5 - The report provides a list of relevant investment targets across various sectors, including high-end power equipment, energy storage, and AI infrastructure, indicating potential opportunities for investors [55][56] - Specific companies and their convertible bonds are highlighted, such as Guoli Convertible Bond in high-voltage direct current and Yihua Convertible Bond in energy storage, showcasing targeted investment strategies [55][56] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in key technologies and market conditions to identify promising investment opportunities in the evolving energy landscape [55][56]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251204 估值异常因子绩效月报 20251128 2025 年 12 月 04 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《估值异常因子绩效月报 20251031》 2025-11-06 ◼ 估值偏离 EPD 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 11 月，估值偏离 EPD 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组多 空对冲的年化收益为 17.22%，年化波动为 9.92%，信息比率为 1.73，月 度胜率为 70.00%，月度最大回撤为 8.93%。 ◼ 缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 11 月，缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组 多空对冲的年化收益为 15.83%，年化波 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1] Core Views - November sales for Yutong Bus increased both year-on-year and month-on-month, with expectations for a year-end tail effect [8] - The company reported a total sales volume of 4,058 units in November, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase and a 33% month-on-month increase, driven by domestic demand and the "old-for-new" policy [8] - The report anticipates a significant increase in export sales in December, following the establishment of a KD factory in Pakistan and winning multiple awards at the recent bus expo in Belgium [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Yutong Bus are as follows: - 2023: 27,042 million RMB - 2024: 37,218 million RMB (up 37.63% YoY) - 2025: 43,639 million RMB (up 17.25% YoY) - 2026: 49,941 million RMB (up 14.44% YoY) - 2027: 56,683 million RMB (up 13.50% YoY) [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 1,817 million RMB - 2024: 4,116 million RMB (up 126.53% YoY) - 2025: 4,944 million RMB (up 20.11% YoY) - 2026: 5,919 million RMB (up 19.71% YoY) - 2027: 7,031 million RMB (up 18.79% YoY) [1][9] - The report projects the P/E ratio to be 39.54 for 2023, decreasing to 10.22 by 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of Yutong Bus is 33.11 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 73,303.53 million RMB [6] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 5.46 and a one-year price range of 22.75 to 33.50 RMB [6]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is deeply engaged in the precision slide rail sector and is expanding its server slide rail business, leveraging the growth of AI [8][14]. - The demand for household appliances is steadily increasing, and there is a high growth in the domestic demand for server slide rails [8][49]. - The company has a comprehensive product layout and is actively expanding its server slide rail offerings [8][73]. - The earnings forecast indicates a potential for rapid growth in performance due to the expansion of the server slide rail business and the gradual release of production capacity [8][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Deep Engagement in Precision Slide Rail Sector - The company specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of precision slide rails, primarily used in household appliances and servers, establishing stable partnerships with major clients [13][14]. - The management team has extensive industry experience, with all members having over ten years in the company [20]. - The company has received numerous honors and qualifications, including being recognized as a high-tech enterprise and a "little giant" in Jiangsu Province [13]. 2. Stable Expansion of Household Slide Rails and High Growth in Server Slide Rail Demand - The company is positioned within the precision metal connection component industry, with significant growth opportunities in both household and server slide rails [40][49]. - The domestic refrigerator market is expected to grow, with retail sales reaching 133.3 billion yuan in 2023, driven by high-end product trends and government policies [49][62]. - The server slide rail market is projected to grow significantly, with the global server market expected to reach 588 billion USD by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 18.8% from 2024 to 2029 [64][70]. 3. Comprehensive Product Layout and Active Expansion of Server Slide Rail Offerings - The company offers a wide range of slide rail products, with over 700 models, including approximately 600 household slide rails and about 100 server slide rails [73]. - The server slide rails are designed for high load capacities, ranging from 40kg to 130kg, and include features such as drop-locking and tool-free installation [73][75]. - The company is focused on high-end slide rail solutions, which are increasingly used in large-capacity and multi-temperature refrigerators, enhancing its market penetration [57][58]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.77 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, followed by growth in subsequent years [1][26]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28, 26, and 22 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation as the company expands its server slide rail business [1][26].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: TPS (Turn20 conformed by PLUS) **Factor Construction Idea**: The TPS factor is designed to improve the traditional turnover rate factor by incorporating price information, specifically the shadow difference (representing intraday market sentiment), to address the limitations of the traditional turnover rate factor[6][9] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. The traditional turnover rate factor (Turn20) is calculated as the average turnover rate over the past 20 trading days, followed by cross-sectional market capitalization neutralization[6] 2. The TPS factor integrates the shadow difference as a price factor to complement the Turn20 factor, leveraging intraday price movements (e.g., opening and closing prices) to better capture market sentiment[9] **Factor Evaluation**: The TPS factor significantly outperforms traditional turnover rate factors in terms of performance and maintains strong stock selection ability even after removing common style and industry effects[6][9] - **Factor Name**: SPS (STR conformed by PLUS) **Factor Construction Idea**: Similar to TPS, the SPS factor improves the STR (Stable Turnover Rate) factor by incorporating price information (shadow difference) to enhance its effectiveness in stock selection[9] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. The STR factor was initially developed to address the limitations of the Turn20 factor, focusing on turnover rate stability rather than magnitude[7] 2. The SPS factor further integrates the shadow difference as a price factor to complement the STR factor, using intraday price movements to better reflect market sentiment[9] **Factor Evaluation**: The SPS factor demonstrates superior performance compared to both the traditional Turn20 and STR factors, with strong stock selection capabilities even after removing style and industry biases[9] Factor Backtesting Results - **TPS Factor**: - Annualized Return: 39.30% - Annualized Volatility: 15.71% - IR: 2.50 - Monthly Win Rate: 77.64% - Maximum Drawdown: 18.19%[1][11] - **SPS Factor**: - Annualized Return: 42.98% - Annualized Volatility: 13.15% - IR: 3.27 - Monthly Win Rate: 83.54% - Maximum Drawdown: 11.58%[1][12][14]

Macro Strategy - The macro environment is influenced by both domestic and overseas factors, leading to a decline in market confidence due to a drop in manufacturing PMI and uncertainty in macroeconomic data [1][15] - Domestic liquidity support through fiscal issuance and monetary policy is stabilizing the valuation environment, while industry policies in sectors like renewable energy and satellite IoT provide long-term support for related sectors [1][15] - The consumer technology sector shows structural differentiation in earnings reports, with companies like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba facing profit declines due to intense competition, while Tencent and Xiaomi achieve profit growth through international expansion and premiumization [1][15] Industry Analysis - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced volatility driven by concerns over AI bubbles and mixed macroeconomic data, with strong non-farm employment data coexisting with rising unemployment rates, complicating the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic health [2][4][16] - The semiconductor sector's performance is shaped by the earnings of companies like Broadcom and Micron, which validate demand trends [4][17] - The gold market is influenced by interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of other precious metals, with a significant focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and inflation data [5][18][19] Index Outlook - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to maintain a bottoming and slightly upward trend in December 2025, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [1][15] - The Nasdaq 100 index is projected to experience a volatile upward trend, supported by the AI industry revolution and commercial validation, despite potential pullbacks if key economic data underperform [4][17] - The gold price is anticipated to remain strong in the short term, with a bullish medium-term outlook, contingent on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and macroeconomic data releases [5][18][19] ETF Products - The Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF (513180) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, with a total market value of 47.745 billion yuan as of November 28, 2025 [1][15] - The GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941.SZ) also closely follows the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a circulating scale of 29.915 billion yuan as of November 28, 2025 [4][17] - The Huaan Gold ETF (518880.SH) tracks domestic gold spot price returns, with a total market value of 90.631 billion yuan as of November 28, 2025 [5][18][19]