Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Industry Rotation Model - **Model Name**: Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to capture excess returns by rotating investments across different industries based on their performance trends - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify industry sectors with strong performance trends - Allocate investments to these sectors while reducing exposure to underperforming sectors - Monitor and adjust the portfolio periodically to maintain optimal sector allocation - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown to perform well in capturing excess returns by timely rotating across industries[11][13][17] Model 2: Macro-Driven Model - **Model Name**: Macro-Driven Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages macroeconomic indicators to guide investment decisions - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze macroeconomic data such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures - Adjust portfolio allocations based on the expected impact of these indicators on different asset classes - Continuously update the model with new macroeconomic data to refine investment decisions - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated effectiveness in aligning investments with macroeconomic trends, leading to favorable returns[11][13] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Rotation Model**: - Absolute return in July: 5.85%[13] - One-year return: 30%[17] - **Macro-Driven Model**: - Absolute return in July: 3.99%[13] - One-year return: 25%[17] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: Duration Extension - **Factor Name**: Duration Extension - **Factor Construction Idea**: Increase the duration of bond holdings to enhance returns in a declining interest rate environment - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify bonds with longer maturities - Increase the allocation to these bonds while reducing exposure to shorter-term bonds - Monitor interest rate trends and adjust the duration accordingly - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has been effective in enhancing returns during periods of declining interest rates[4][28][32] Factor 2: Equity Allocation Adjustment - **Factor Name**: Equity Allocation Adjustment - **Factor Construction Idea**: Adjust the allocation between equity and debt based on market conditions - **Factor Construction Process**: - Increase equity allocation during bullish market conditions - Reduce equity allocation and increase debt holdings during bearish market conditions - Continuously monitor market indicators to adjust allocations - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has shown to improve portfolio performance by dynamically adjusting to market conditions[5][34][37] Factor Backtesting Results - **Duration Extension**: - Increase in duration for pure bond products: 0.10 years[32] - Increase in duration for fixed income plus products: 0.05 years[32] - **Equity Allocation Adjustment**: - Increase in equity allocation for mixed bond products: 1.74%[36] - Increase in equity allocation for stock products: 0.97%[36]

固 定 收 益 研 究 2025 年 08 月 04 日 以史为鉴：恢复征收增值税的影响 固定收益研究团队 ——事件点评 陈曦（分析师） 刘伟（分析师） chenxi2@kysec.cn liuwei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790524070008 2025 年 8 月 1 日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的 公告》，宣布对 8 月 8 日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入， 恢复征收增值税。 2016 年政金债增值税的历史经验 关于新发行国债等利息收入恢复征收增值税，市场的一种理解为：未来新发行债 券收益率上行、存续债券收益率下行，新老国债利差扩大。 回顾历史，我们发现，2016 年出现过类似事件。2016 年 3 月 24 日，财政部、国 家税务总局发布《关于全面推开营业税改征增值税试点的通知》，债券利息需要 缴纳增值税，其中，国债利息收入免征增值税、但政金债没有明确说法，市场预 期政金债要缴纳增值税。 理论上，国债免征增值税、政金债征收增值税，则国债与政金债的利差应该扩大。 两者利差扩大可分为三种方式：一是国 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic industrial X-ray detection sector, focusing on both organic growth and acquisitions to establish itself as a global detection platform leader [5][6] - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with a nearly 100% year-on-year growth in new orders in the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand in the semiconductor, lithium battery, and automotive parts inspection sectors [6] - The company plans to leverage its abundant cash flow from its IPO to pursue a merger and acquisition strategy, aiming to expand horizontally into various detection technologies and vertically into key components [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 1,216 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 64.4% [8] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 187 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.2% [8] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 1.13 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 48.5 times [8] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 44.9% by 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 15.4% [11]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - July exports are expected to show resilience, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 2.8% [9] - Industrial production is experiencing marginal weakening, with construction activity remaining at seasonal lows and demand showing fluctuations [6] - The construction demand is weak, with recent data indicating that the apparent demand for rebar and building materials is below historical levels [6] Group 2: Industry Performance - The defense and military industry showed a notable increase of 3.062% in recent trading, while machinery equipment rose by 1.926% [3] - The building materials sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting demand for construction materials, particularly in urban renewal projects [34][35] - The mechanical industry is focusing on the commercialization of lightweight robots, which is becoming a critical topic in the industry [40] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - In the robotics sector, there is a significant focus on lightweight materials, which are essential for enhancing performance and reducing costs [40][41] - The amylin drug development space is gaining traction, with several major pharmaceutical companies investing heavily in this area, indicating potential growth opportunities [24][25][27][28] - The AI application sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with companies like Figma leading the way, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in AI-related businesses [30] Group 4: Market Trends - The construction materials index has underperformed compared to the broader market, but over the past year, it has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.84% [36] - The gaming industry continues to thrive, with domestic game sales reaching 168 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.08% [31][32] - The retail sector is seeing a shift towards online platforms, with notable performances from brands on social media platforms like Douyin [55]

Supply and Demand - Industrial production shows marginal weakening, with construction activity at seasonal lows, particularly in asphalt and cement operations[2] - Some chemical chains and automotive steel tire production rates have declined, with PX operating rates returning to historical midpoints[2] - Construction demand remains weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rod, and building materials below historical levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with oil, copper, aluminum, and gold showing a generally strong trend[3] - Domestic industrial products, excluding some building materials, are experiencing a rebound in prices, with the South China comprehensive index showing an upward trend[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 16% week-on-week increase in transaction area, but still down 38% and 17% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with prices declining and transaction volumes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai showing year-on-year decreases of 8% and 2% respectively[4] Exports - July exports are expected to show resilience, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 2.8%, and container shipping data indicating a potential increase of around 7%[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.42% as of August 1[70] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 15,675 billion yuan through reverse repos in the same period[70] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[75]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) showcased over 150 humanoid robots, emphasizing the integration of AI with the real economy, with embodied intelligence as a core theme [4][14] - The domestic embodied intelligence sector has seen a significant increase in financing, with over 200 billion yuan raised in the first half of 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [32][35] - The report identifies ten key application scenarios for humanoid robots, including logistics sorting, elderly care, inspection, guidance, family companionship, education, medical care, automotive factories, electronics factories, and entertainment, with logistics, health, inspection, and education being the primary focus areas [60][62] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The WAIC 2025 highlighted the transition of humanoid robots from static displays to dynamic task execution, marking a significant milestone in the industry [14][28] - The conference emphasized the need for AI to empower new industrialization, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announcing initiatives to enhance data quality and facilitate enterprise collaboration [4][28] 2. Market Dynamics - The primary market is witnessing a surge in financing for domestic embodied intelligence companies, characterized by a "scale increase and hardware-software layout" [5][32] - The secondary market is seeing accelerated capital actions from leading companies, driving the entire industry chain's collaborative development [36] 3. Application Scenarios - The report anticipates a rapid acceleration in the deployment of humanoid robots across various application scenarios, with logistics expected to lead the way [41][60] - Specific companies are highlighted as beneficiaries in different application areas, such as logistics (e.g., Zhongyou Technology, DeMa Technology) and elderly care (e.g., Sanhui Electric, Songlin Technology) [62] 4. Key Investment Targets - Recommended investment targets include companies focused on application scenarios and core components, such as Huaron Co., Ltd. and Boshi Co., Ltd. for application scenarios, and Top Group and Zhongding Co., Ltd. for core components [7][61] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable supply chain for humanoid robots, particularly in components like motors, reducers, sensors, and lightweight materials [63][70]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant potential of the amylin market, with major pharmaceutical companies making substantial investments in amylin molecules, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][9] - Amylin products are showing promising early clinical data in terms of safety and weight loss efficacy, with specific examples demonstrating competitive advantages over existing treatments [7][22] - A dense pipeline of catalysts is expected in the next 6-12 months, with multiple companies set to release critical clinical trial data that could validate the product profiles of amylin candidates [8][29] Summary by Sections Recent Major BD Transactions - AbbVie and Roche have made significant investments in amylin molecules, with AbbVie paying an upfront fee of $350 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.875 billion for Gubra's amylin molecule [6][17] - Roche has partnered with Zealand to develop petrelintide, with an upfront payment of $1.65 billion and milestone payments reaching $3.6 billion [6][17] Amylin Product Profile - Early data for amylin monotherapy shows excellent safety and weight loss results, with examples like Eli Lilly's Eloralintide demonstrating a maximum weight loss of 11.3% at 12 weeks [7][22] - The report notes that the majority of weight loss from Eloralintide is fat, with preclinical data showing up to 91% of weight loss being fat [23][28] Future Catalysts - A significant number of amylin pipeline data readouts are expected in the next 6-12 months, with major companies like Roche, Eli Lilly, and AstraZeneca anticipated to release phase 2 trial data [8][29] - Companies such as Viking, Structure, and others are also highlighted for their clinical trial progress in the amylin space [8][29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Borui Pharmaceutical and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, which are expected to accelerate their presence in the amylin market [9][31] - Beneficiary companies include Viking, Structure, Metsera, and Jiuyuan Gene, which are positioned to gain from advancements in the amylin sector [9][31]

业 研 究 2025 年 08 月 03 日 增值税调整对银行配债行为及业绩影响 ——行业点评报告 《企业短贷高增与票据利率的窄幅波 动—行业点评报告》-2025.8.1 《坚守"绝对收益"的现实与未来— 理财 2025H1 半年报解读》-2025.8.1 《险资增配动因与 PB-ROE 估值曲线 演变"新范式"—行业深度报告》 -2025.7.31 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 增值税新规落地，对政府债、金融债利息收入恢复征收增值税 刘呈祥（分析师） 朱晓云（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070010 财政部、税务总局公告，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新 发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。 （1）新老划断：老券及含续发机制债券依然享受增值税减免，新券发行理论上 需加回增值税率补偿。 （2）银行、保险、券商等自营 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the fine management of Chinese cuisine releases profit elasticity, while economic structural changes drive technological advancements [1][4] - The education sector is experiencing new opportunities due to social changes, with vocational education gaining traction as parents and students shift their views from "fallback options" to "active choices" [4][21] - The nutrition and health food market in China is steadily growing, with a focus on high-quality cross-border imported health brands [6][34] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - The summer travel volume has reached a historical high, with July's passenger transport volume expected to reach 71.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [15] - Airlines have adopted a price-for-volume strategy, leading to a 7.5% decline in average domestic economy class ticket prices [15][16] Education - China Oriental Education expects a 7% year-on-year increase in new enrollment and a 10% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit projected to grow by 45%-50% [21][23] - Good Future's revenue for FY2026 Q1 is expected to rise by 38.8% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 174.4% [24][27] - New Oriental's revenue for FY2026 Q1 is projected to be $1.243 billion, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, despite a slowdown in overseas study demand [29] Chinese Cuisine - The "Little Garden" restaurant chain anticipates a net profit of RMB 360-380 million for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.6%-35.7% [30][35] - The Green Tea Group expects a net profit of RMB 230-237 million for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32%-36% [32][33] Nutrition and Health - China's health food import value has grown from $408 million in 2008 to an estimated $7.753 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.21% [34][37] - Cross-border imported health products are expected to gain market share due to relaxed entry qualifications and diverse consumer demands [43][44]

Group 1 - The organic silicon industry is experiencing an upward trend, benefiting from tightened upstream silicon supply, which is expected to further enhance industry prosperity. Companies such as Silane Technology and Huami New Materials are recommended for attention [3][10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on August 1, 2025, regarding energy conservation inspections in the polysilicon industry, which aims to eliminate backward production capacity and reduce the burden on enterprises [3][10]. - The organic silicon sector is a crucial part of the silicon industry chain, with applications in construction materials, electronics, aerospace, and automotive industries due to its unique properties [12][10]. Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange experienced a decline of 1.80% in the week from July 28 to August 1, 2025, with all sub-sectors showing negative performance [4][26]. - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1419.61 points, reflecting a weekly decline of 2.70%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.75% [22][25]. - Notable individual stock performances in the chemical new materials sector included Gebijia (+12.44%), Huitong New Materials (+11.69%), and Patel (+7.95%) [28][31]. Group 3 - Silane Technology focuses on the research, production, and sales of hydrogen silicon materials, with applications in photovoltaic, LCD panels, semiconductors, and hydrogen energy vehicles. However, the company has faced a decline in performance due to domestic capacity expansion and reduced downstream demand [14][16]. - Huami New Materials specializes in the research, production, and sales of rubber and plastic materials, with its high-end organic silicon project currently in trial production, primarily for aerospace applications [17][20].