招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 台积电：AI 需求激增推动强劲的业绩和指引 台积电（TSM US，未评级）公布了强劲的 2024年四季度业绩。公司收入达到 268 亿美元（同比增长 36.5%/环比增长 14.1%），比彭博一致预期/公司指引高 3.9%/1.3%，主要受 3 纳米/5 纳米芯片的强劲需求驱动。毛利率扩张至 59.0%，高 于彭博一致预期/公司指引的 58.5%/58.0%，主要受益于更高的产能利用率和生产 效率，部分被 3 纳米产能扩张的稀释抵消。按技术节点划分，3 纳米在四季度的收 入占比为 26%（上季度/去年同期为 20%/15%）。按下游应用领域划分，高性能计 算仍是最大贡献板块，收入占比超过 50%，反映 AI 的强劲需求。2024 财年收入同 比增长 30%至 901 亿美元，毛利率为 56.1%，同比提升 1.7 个百分点。 管理层预计 2025 年一季度收入将在 250-258 亿美元区间。收入中值意味着同比增 长 35%，环比下降 6%。管理层表示，收入环比下降 6%主要受 1）智能手机季节 性因素影响，但 2）部分将被 AI 领域的强劲需求所抵消。 ...

2025 年 2 月 7 日 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR ) 或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报 告 1 MN 宏观：特朗普关税政策来得比预期更早，可能改变政策路径。近期中国经济 有望延续复苏态势，住房与耐用品销售回升作为先行指标预示消费需求可能 广泛改善 ；远期经济面临贸易战 与政策刺激效应递减带来的下行压力，但逆 周期的政策会因时因势而动。特朗普关税政策短期 将推升美国通胀，延缓美 联储降息，推高政策利率，打击美股，中长期则 会抑制需求 和削弱产业竞争 力 。因此 ，美债收益率曲线可能更加平坦化，长债收益率与美元指数可能先 升后降。我们维持美联储 6 月和 9 月两次降息预测。 科技：受益全球手机 /PC 需求回暖、国内消费电子补贴、 DeepSeek 催化 AI 终端加速渗透以及 AI 服务器高增延续，我们预期科技板块有望继续跑赢市 场，建议布局两条主线： 1 ） Deep Seek 和 Apple Intelligence 加速端侧 AI 推 广落地 ， OpenAI 宣布开发 AI 终端，国内补贴刺激需求，全球手 ...

宏观：特朗普关税政策来得比预期更早，可能改变政策路径。近期中国经济有望延续复苏态势，住房与耐用品 销售回升作为先行指标预示消费需求可能广泛改善；远期经济面临贸易战与政策刺激效应递减带来的下行压 力，但逆周期的政策会因时因势而动。特朗普关税政策短期将推升美国通胀，延缓美联储降息，推高政策利 率，打击美股，中长期则会抑制需求和削弱产业竞争力。因此，美债收益率曲线可能更加平坦化，长债收益率 与美元指数可能先升后降。我们维持美联储6月和9月两次降息预测。 科技：受益全球手机/PC需求回暖、国内消费电子补贴、DeepSeek催化AI终端加速渗透以及AI服务器高增延 续，我们预期科技板块有望继续跑赢市场，建议布局两条主线：1）DeepSeek和Apple Intelligence加速端侧 AI推广落地，OpenAI宣布开发AI终端，国内补贴刺激需求，全球手机/AI终端将有望进入新一轮升级周期（手 机/PC/穿戴/眼镜/智能家居）；2）服务器算力需求维持高增，GB200/300服务器/网络新架构升级，进一步推 动ODM和零部件需求(銅链接/液冷/电源)。产业链方面，看好1)手机/AI终端产业链（小米/比电/立讯/瑞声/鸿 ...

美国1月服务业PMI超预期回落但仍处于扩张状态，显示经济温和放缓但仍有韧性，分项指数显示服务业需求放 缓、通胀回落但就业扩张，令部分投资者相信美国经济仍处于金发姑娘状态。制造业PMI时隔10个月重回荣枯 线以上，需求、生产、就业、价格和进出口均明显回升，可能因为房地产与耐用消费复苏、供应链修复和关税 预期下进出口抢跑效应，但特朗普关税政策可能为制造业未来前景蒙上阴影。总体来看，PMI数据小幅减轻市 场对通胀反弹的担忧，加上美国财长重申降通胀和不干预联储的承诺，美股和美债受到提振，但特朗普不确定 性并未消失。由于近几个月美元利率反弹、汇率走强、美股波动增加和特朗普不确定性，未来两个季度美国经 济和通胀可能温和放缓。但由于特朗普政策推升中期通胀不确定性，美联储对降息更加谨慎，预计3月和5月可 能继续暂停降息，6月和9月可能两次降息各25个基点。 服务业PMI低于预期，显示服务经济增速放缓。ISM服务业PMI从12月的54.1下降至52.8，低于市场预期的 54，服务业保持扩张但幅度放缓。根据历史经验，服务业PMI超过49预示经济扩张，本月服务业PMI对应年化 GDP增速为1.4%。商业活动指数从12月高位的58. ...

宏观经济 美国经济 - PMI显示经济放缓但仍有韧性 美国1月服务业PMI超预期回落但仍处于扩张状态，显示经济温和放缓但仍有韧性，分项指数显示服务业需求放 缓、通胀回落但就业扩张，令部分投资者相信美国经济仍处于金发姑娘状态。制造业PMI时隔10个月重回荣枯 线以上，需求、生产、就业、价格和进出口均明显回升，可能因为房地产与耐用消费复苏、供应链修复和关税 预期下进出口抢跑效应，但特朗普关税政策可能为制造业未来前景蒙上阴影。 总体来看，PMI数据小幅减轻市场对通胀反弹的担忧，加上美国财长重申降通胀和不干预联储的承诺，美股和 美债受到提振，但特朗普不确定性并未消失。由于近几个月美元利率反弹、汇率走强、美股波动增加和特朗普 不确定性，未来两个季度美国经济和通胀可能温和放缓。但由于特朗普政策推升中期通胀不确定性，美联储对 降息更加谨慎，预计3月和5月可能继续暂停降息，6月和9月可能两次降息各25个基点。 公司点评 百胜中国（9987 HK，买入，目标价：484.83港元）- 4季度基本面良好，25财年展望仍能乐观 24财年4季度业绩符合预期，基本面改善令人鼓舞。百胜中国24财年销售和净利润分别增长4%和10%，均符 合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Thermo Fisher, with a target price raised from US$670 to US$690, indicating an upside potential of 18.5% from the current price of US$582.38 [3][7]. Core Insights - Thermo Fisher delivered a strong performance in 4Q24, with revenue growth of 4.7% YoY and adjusted EPS growth of 7.6%, surpassing consensus estimates [1][7]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 1.4-2.6% YoY and adjusted EPS growth of 5.7-7.5% YoY for 2025, reflecting a positive outlook [1][7]. - A robust demand outlook is expected to continue, driven by pharmaceutical innovation and a favorable biotech funding environment, with management projecting long-term industry growth of 4-6% and organic growth for Thermo Fisher of 7-9% [7][8]. - The company plans to invest US$1.4-1.7 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, marking an 11% YoY increase, the first such growth since 2021 [7]. Financial Summary - For FY24, Thermo Fisher reported revenue of US$42,879 million, with a slight YoY growth of 0.1%. The forecast for FY25 is US$44,129 million, representing a growth of 2.9% YoY [2][15]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24 was US$8,380 million, with an expected increase to US$8,852 million in FY25, reflecting a growth of 5.6% YoY [2][15]. - The adjusted EPS for FY24 was US$21.94, projected to rise to US$23.38 in FY25, indicating a growth of 6.6% [2][15]. Segment Performance - In 4Q24, all business segments showed sequential improvements, with Life Science growing by 5.5% YoY, Analytical Instruments by 7.3% YoY, and Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services by 3.8% YoY [7][8]. - The clinical CRO business experienced low single-digit growth in 2024, while the demand from China showed signs of recovery, with low single-digit growth in revenue [7][8]. Market Position - Thermo Fisher's market capitalization stands at approximately US$222.47 billion, with significant institutional ownership from Vanguard (8.6%) and BlackRock (7.6%) [3][4]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of 8.4% and a 3-month performance of 4.1%, indicating positive market sentiment [5][6].

2025 年 2 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 PMI 显示经济放缓但仍有韧性 美国 1 月服务业 PMI 超预期回落但仍处于扩张状态，显示经济温和放缓但仍有 韧性，分项指数显示服务业需求放缓、通胀回落但就业扩张，令部分投资者相 信美国经济仍处于金发姑娘状态。制造业 PMI 时隔 10 个月重回荣枯线以上，需 求、生产、就业、价格和进出口均明显回升，可能因为房地产与耐用消费复 苏、供应链修复和关税预期下进出口抢跑效应，但特朗普关税政策可能为制造 业未来前景蒙上阴影。总体来看，PMI 数据小幅减轻市场对通胀反弹的担忧， 加上美国财长重申降通胀和不干预联储的承诺，美股和美债受到提振，但特朗 普不确定性并未消失。由于近几个月美元利率反弹、汇率走强、美股波动增加 和特朗普不确定性，未来两个季度美国经济和通胀可能温和放缓。但由于特朗 普政策推升中期通胀不确定性，美联储对降息更加谨慎，预计 3 月和 5 月可能 继续暂停降息，6 月和 9 月可能两次降息各 25 个基点。 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 刘泽晖 (852 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Alphabet, with a target price adjusted to US$234.00, reflecting a potential upside of 21.1% from the current price of US$193.30 [1][2]. Core Insights - Alphabet's 4Q24 results showed net revenue growth of 13% YoY to US$81.6 billion and net income growth of 28% YoY to US$26.5 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - For FY24, net income increased by 36% YoY to US$100.1 billion, driven by improved operating efficiency and cost savings from office space optimization [1]. - Management anticipates a significant increase in capital expenditures to approximately US$75 billion in FY25E, a 43% YoY increase, primarily for AI and cloud investments, which may pressure margins [1][6]. - The report indicates a slight reduction in FY25-26E net income forecasts by 1-2% due to higher-than-expected AI investments [1]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23A revenue was US$307.4 billion, projected to grow to US$350.0 billion in FY24A and further to US$392.3 billion in FY25E [2][11]. - Net profit for FY23A was US$73.8 billion, expected to rise to US$100.1 billion in FY24A and US$110.7 billion in FY25E [2][11]. - The consensus EPS is projected to increase from US$5.84 in FY23A to US$8.13 in FY24A and US$9.14 in FY25E [2]. Advertising and Cloud Revenue Insights - Google Advertising maintained solid growth, with Google Search & other revenue increasing by 12.5% YoY to US$54.0 billion in 4Q24, driven by ad spending in financial services and retail [6]. - YouTube ad revenue grew by 13.8% YoY to US$10.5 billion, significantly boosted by increased ad spending during the US elections [6]. - Google Cloud revenue grew by 30% YoY to US$12.0 billion in 4Q24, although growth decelerated due to supply constraints [6]. AI Investment and Future Outlook - Alphabet plans to enhance AI investments to unlock growth potential, with a focus on increasing AI capacity to meet rising demand [6][9]. - The operating profit margin improved by 4.6 percentage points YoY to 32.1% in 4Q24, attributed to operational efficiencies [6]. - Management expects variability in cloud revenue growth rates in 2025, depending on the timing of new capacity deployment [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on Innolight with a target price of RMB186.00, indicating a potential upside of 45.0% from the current price of RMB128.25 [2][6]. Core Insights - Innolight is expected to see a significant increase in net profit (NP) for FY24, projected to rise by 111.6%-166.9% to RMB4.6 billion - RMB5.8 billion, with a midpoint of RMB5.2 billion reflecting a 139.2% year-over-year growth [1][6]. - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary in the ongoing AI infrastructure investment cycle, driven by strong global demand for computing power [1][6]. - Recent developments in AI spending, including substantial investments from major companies, indicate a robust outlook for AI-related products, particularly optical transceivers [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB10,718 million in FY23 to RMB24,269 million in FY24, representing a year-over-year growth of 126.4% [7][9]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB2,174 million in FY23 to RMB5,276 million in FY24, marking a 142.8% growth [7][9]. - The gross margin is anticipated to remain stable at around 33.3% in FY24, slightly decreasing to 32.3% in FY25 [7][9]. Share Performance - The stock has experienced a 1-month decline of 2.6% and a 3-month decline of 18.4%, indicating recent volatility [4]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are RMB185.83 and RMB72.29, respectively, reflecting significant price fluctuations [2][4]. Growth Drivers - The main growth driver for Innolight in 2025 is expected to be the 800G product line, with a gradual ramp-up of 1.6T products anticipated in subsequent years [6][9]. - The company has seen strong demand for its 400/800G products, with a favorable product mix expected to shift towards higher sales of 800G products in 2025 [6][9]. Market Context - The report highlights that the fear surrounding the mainstream adoption of CPO solutions is overstated, as there are still technical challenges to overcome [1][6]. - Major AI spending initiatives, such as Meta's planned $60-65 billion capex for 2025 and ByteDance's $12 billion consideration for AI investments, underscore the ongoing demand for AI computing power [1][6].

3 Feb 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Microsoft (MSFT US) Cloud revenue growth and AI related monetization remain keys to watch Microsoft reported (30 Jan HKT) 2QFY25 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$69.6bn, up 12% YoY (1QFY25: +16% YoY), 1% better than consensus, driven by a 3/2% beat in productivity and business process (PBP) / more personal computing (MPC) segment, while partly offset by a 1% short in Intelligent Cloud (IC) segment. Net profit was up 10% Yo ...