Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation with a target price raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting an increase in valuation from 3.1x to 4.0x based on the 2025 fiscal year EV/EBITDA [1][7][3]. Core Views - China Tower's fiscal year 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 4.0% year-on-year to RMB 97.8 billion, and net profit rising by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above internal forecasts but below Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The traditional tower business, accounting for 77% of revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9%, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses experienced double-digit growth, achieving RMB 84 billion (up 18%) and RMB 134 billion (up 16%) respectively [1][2]. - The company announced a share consolidation to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 101.8 billion, with a growth rate of 4.1% [2][10]. - EBITDA is expected to reach RMB 69.1 billion in FY25E, reflecting a 3.7% increase [2][10]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 13.0% to RMB 12.1 billion in FY25E, with earnings per share projected at RMB 0.69 [2][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for FY24, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [7][1]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Citigroup with 9.0% and GIC with 7.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The current stock price is HKD 12.24, with a potential upside of 11.9% to the target price [3]. - The stock has shown a 26.2% absolute return over the past six months [5]. Business Segments - The traditional tower business is expected to face continued pressure due to low single-digit growth forecasts for domestic telecom operators, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses are anticipated to maintain double-digit growth rates [7][1]. - The indoor distribution business is projected to grow by 14.0% and 11.6% in FY25E and FY26E respectively, driven by market opportunities [7]. - The two wings business, particularly the Tower Intelligence segment, is expected to see significant revenue growth due to projects related to national disaster warning and agricultural protection [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation with a target price raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting an increase in valuation from 3.1x to 4.0x based on the 2025 fiscal year EV/EBITDA [1][7][3]. Core Views - China Tower's fiscal year 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 4.0% year-on-year to RMB 97.8 billion and net profit rising by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above internal forecasts but below Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The traditional tower business, accounting for 77% of revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9%, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses experienced double-digit growth, achieving RMB 84 billion (up 18%) and RMB 134 billion (up 16%) respectively [1][2]. - The company announced a stock consolidation plan to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 101.8 billion, with a growth rate of 4.1%, followed by RMB 104.4 billion in FY26E and RMB 108.4 billion in FY27E [2][10]. - EBITDA is expected to reach RMB 69.1 billion in FY25E, with a net profit forecast of RMB 12.1 billion, reflecting a 13.0% year-on-year growth [2][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for FY24, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [7][10]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Citigroup with 9.0% and GIC with 7.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 13.3% increase over the past three months, although it has underperformed relative to the market by 7.5% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price adjusted to HKD 89.00 from the previous HKD 94.00, indicating a potential upside of 43.1% from the current price of HKD 62.20 [3][8][11]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth remains resilient across various markets, with year-on-year increases of +23% in Hong Kong, +20% in Mainland China, +15% in Thailand, +15% in Singapore, +10% in Malaysia, and +18% in other markets, contributing to an overall expected NBV growth of 14% for 2025 [2][8]. - AIA has announced a new share buyback plan of USD 1.6 billion, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to USD 6.605 billion in 2024, with a slight increase in earnings per share (EPS) to USD 0.60 [8][9]. Financial Performance - The total market capitalization of AIA Group is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The company reported a total NBV of USD 4.712 billion, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year, although the growth rate in the second half of 2024 is expected to slow down [7][8]. - The operating return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 14.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating strong financial health [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range, suggesting significant upside potential [8][11]. - The report highlights that the dividend per share is expected to increase by 10% to USD 1.31, with an annual dividend yield of 3.1% [7][8]. - The adjusted target price reflects a valuation based on relative and appraisal methods, with the potential for further upward adjustments as shareholder returns and value growth progress [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][11][12]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth shows resilience, with a projected increase of 14% year-on-year for 2025, despite adjustments in economic assumptions due to declining long-term interest rates in mainland China [2][8]. - A new share buyback plan of US$1.6 billion is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's target price is adjusted to HKD 89.00, reflecting a potential upside of 43.1% from the current share price of HKD 62.20 [3][8]. Financial Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The NBV growth rates for various markets are as follows: Hong Kong +23%, mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other markets +18% [2]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to US$6.605 billion in 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach US$0.60 [8][9]. Shareholder Returns - The total shareholder return rate is expected to reach 6% in 2025, combining dividends and share buybacks [7][8]. - The dividend per share is projected to increase by 10% year-on-year to US$1.31, with an annual dividend of US$1.75, reflecting a 9% increase [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range [8][11]. - The adjusted target price corresponds to a FY25E P/EV of 1.60x, indicating significant upside potential [11][12].

2025 年 3 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 宏观、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 港股分类指数上日表现 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 39,738 | 1.40 | 33.25 | | 恒生工商业 | 14,197 | 0.45 | 53.76 | | 恒生地产 | 16,253 | 0.35 | -11.32 | | 恒生公用事业 | 35,119 | 1.53 | 6.83 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 周一（3 月 17 日）中国股市涨跌互现。恒指上涨，恒生科技下跌，公用事业、 金融与必选消费领涨，综合企业与医疗保健下跌。A 股地产、可选消费与能 源领涨，金融与通信服务下跌。中概股大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨 4%。 国债期货下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation [1][3] Core Views - The company's 2024 fiscal year performance met expectations, with a revenue increase of 4.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 97.7 billion, and a net profit growth of 10.0%, amounting to RMB 10.7 billion [1] - The report highlights the stable performance of legacy businesses, while Distributed Antenna System (DAS) and Two Wings (smart towers and energy) segments continue to show double-digit growth [2][3] - The target price has been raised to HKD 13.7, based on a 4.0x FY25E EV/EBITDA, reflecting a higher valuation due to the company's efforts to enhance shareholder returns [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is reported at RMB 97,772 million, with a projected growth rate of 4.1% for FY25 and 2.5% for FY26 [4] - Net profit for FY24 is RMB 10,729 million, with expected growth rates of 13.0% for FY25 and 13.2% for FY26 [4] - The company announced a total dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for 2024, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [3] Business Segments - Tower business revenue, which constitutes 77% of total revenue, reached RMB 75.7 billion, growing by 0.9% year-on-year [1] - DAS revenue, accounting for 9% of total revenue, increased by 18% to RMB 8.4 billion, while the Two Wings segment, making up 14%, grew by 16% to RMB 13.4 billion [1][2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the DAS segment, projecting a revenue increase of 14.0% and 11.6% for FY25 and FY26, respectively [2] - The Two Wings business is expected to grow by 17.5% and 16.2% in FY25 and FY26, respectively, driven by new revenue from national disaster warning and farmland protection projects [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for China Tower with a new target price of HK$13.7, reflecting an upside potential of 11.9% from the current price of HK$12.24 [1][3]. Core Insights - China Tower's FY24 results were in line with expectations, showing a revenue increase of 4.0% YoY to RMB97.8 billion and a net profit increase of 10.0% to RMB10.7 billion [1]. - The Tower segment, which constitutes 77% of total revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9% YoY, while the DAS and Two Wings segments experienced double-digit growth rates of 18% and 16% YoY, respectively [1][6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its capital structure through a stock consolidation (1 for 10) announced in February 2025 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24 was RMB97.8 billion, with projected revenues of RMB101.8 billion for FY25 and RMB104.4 billion for FY26, indicating a growth rate of 4.1% and 2.5% respectively [2][14]. - Net profit for FY24 was RMB10.7 billion, with estimates of RMB12.1 billion for FY25 and RMB13.7 billion for FY26, reflecting growth rates of 13.0% and 13.2% respectively [2][14]. - The EBITDA for FY24 was RMB66.6 billion, with projections of RMB69.1 billion for FY25 and RMB71.2 billion for FY26 [2][14]. Segment Analysis - The Tower business is expected to remain stable, with a projected low single-digit growth for China telcos from 2025 to 2027 [6]. - The DAS segment is forecasted to grow by 14.0% YoY in 2025 and 11.6% YoY in 2026, driven by market opportunities such as signal strength upgrade projects [6]. - The Two Wings segment, which includes smart tower and energy solutions, is anticipated to grow by 17.5% YoY in 2025 and 16.2% YoY in 2026, bolstered by projects like national disaster alerts [6]. Valuation Metrics - The new target price of HK$13.7 is based on a 4.0x FY25 EV/EBITDA, which aligns with the company's 5-year average forward EV/EBITDA [1][6]. - The report indicates a dividend payout ratio of 76% for 2024, up from previous years, suggesting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [6].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 146.81, up from the previous target price of RMB 115.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB 128.00 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 32.4% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion for the fiscal year 2024, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's consensus estimates [1][2]. - Net profit increased by 34.3% year-on-year to RMB 1.9 billion, aligning with the report's forecast but falling short of Bloomberg's consensus by 2% [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 24.8% from 23.4% in 2023, primarily due to recovering demand, although partially offset by the ramp-up of new factory capacity [1][2]. - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 15% and 21%, respectively, driven by increased capacity utilization, accelerated capital expenditures from domestic cloud vendors, and faster-than-expected penetration of high-end autonomous driving applications [1][2][6]. - Net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted upward by 12% and 16%, respectively, despite a slight decline in gross margin due to rising production costs associated with the new Guangzhou factory [1][2]. Financial Summary - For FY24, the company expects sales revenue of RMB 21.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.3% [2][10]. - The gross margin is projected to be 25.1% in FY25 and gradually increase to 26.2% by FY27 [2][10]. - Net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 2.4 billion in FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.4% [2][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 4.74 in FY25, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.0 [2][10]. Business Segment Performance - PCB business revenue grew by 30% to RMB 10.5 billion, driven by strong demand from data centers and automotive sectors [6]. - The gross margin for PCB business is expected to improve to 31.6% in FY24, benefiting from enhanced capacity utilization and an optimized product mix [6]. - The baseboard business saw a revenue increase of 37.5% to RMB 3.2 billion, although margins were pressured due to rising raw material costs and production ramp-up challenges [6]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the trend of self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain in China, leveraging its leading position in the PCB market and expansion of FC-BGA substrate production lines [6].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 146.81, up from a previous target price of RMB 115.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current stock price of RMB 128.00 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 32.4% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion for the fiscal year 2024, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's consensus estimates [1][2]. - Net profit increased by 34.3% year-on-year to RMB 1.9 billion, aligning with the report's forecast but slightly below Bloomberg's consensus [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 24.8% from 23.4% in 2023, primarily due to recovering demand, although partially offset by the ramp-up of new factory capacity [1]. - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 15% and 21% respectively, driven by increased capacity utilization, accelerated capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers, and faster-than-expected penetration of high-end autonomous driving applications [1][2]. - Net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have also been increased by 12% and 16% respectively, despite a slight decline in gross margin due to rising production costs [1]. Financial Summary - For FY24, the company expects sales revenue to reach RMB 21.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.3% [2]. - The gross margin is projected to be 25.1% in FY25, with net profit expected to be RMB 2.4 billion, reflecting a 29.4% year-on-year growth [2][10]. - The company’s PCB business revenue is anticipated to grow by 25% in 2025, supported by strong demand in data centers and automotive sectors [6]. - The baseboard business is expected to see an 18% revenue increase in 2025, driven by rapid growth in storage product revenues [6]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the trend of self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry, leveraging its leading position in the PCB market and expansion of FC-BGA substrate production lines [6].

2025 年 3 月 17 日 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,960 | 2.12 | 40.55 | | 恒生国企 | 8,878 | 2.75 | 53.90 | | 恒生科技 | 5,881 | 2.31 | 56.23 | | 上证综指 | 3,420 | 1.81 | 14.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,109 | 2.05 | 14.77 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,227 | 2.80 | 17.73 | | 美国道琼斯 | 41,488 | 1.65 | 10.08 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,639 | 2.13 | 18.22 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 17,754 | 2.61 | 18.27 | | 德国 DAX | 22,987 | 1.86 | 37.22 | | 法国 CAC | 8,028 | 1.13 | 6.43 | | 英国富时 100 | 8,632 | 1.05 | 11.63 | | 日本日经 225 ...