Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kanzhun Limited, with a target price adjusted to $21.00, reflecting a 17.3% increase from the previous target price of $19.50 [1][5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 1.92 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, which aligns with market expectations. The non-GAAP net profit increased by 44% to RMB 764 million, exceeding market expectations by 11 percentage points due to strong operational leverage and effective cost control [1][2]. - For Q2 2025, management anticipates a revenue growth of 6.9%-8.5%, projecting total revenue between RMB 20.5 billion and RMB 20.8 billion, consistent with market expectations [1][2]. - The company remains optimistic about achieving its full-year non-GAAP operating profit target of RMB 3 billion despite macroeconomic uncertainties and trade tensions [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 8.098 billion, with a gross margin of 84.0% and an adjusted net profit of RMB 3.207 billion, reflecting an 18.3% year-on-year growth [4][10]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin is expected to be 25.3% for FY25E, with a continued focus on efficiency and cost control [3][10]. User Growth and Market Demand - The total number of paid enterprise clients reached 6.4 million, a 12% increase year-on-year, indicating resilient recruitment demand despite macroeconomic challenges [2]. - The company added over 15 million verified users from January to April 2025, with daily active users increasing by 24% year-on-year to 57.6 million [2]. Artificial Intelligence Strategy - The company is making steady progress in artificial intelligence, enhancing recruitment efficiency by 25% through AI functionalities, while maintaining caution regarding large-scale deployment to avoid replacing human recruiters [2][3]. Financial Summary - The financial outlook shows a consistent increase in revenue and profitability, with projected revenues growing from RMB 5.952 billion in FY23A to RMB 8.098 billion in FY25E, alongside a steady improvement in gross margins [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Baozun, with a target price adjusted to US$3.55, reflecting a potential upside of 15.3% from the current price of US$3.08 [1][3]. Core Insights - Baozun reported a total revenue of RMB2.1 billion for 1Q25, representing a 4% year-over-year increase, which is 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates. The growth was primarily driven by a 23% year-over-year increase in Baozun Brand Management (BBM) revenue, while Baozun E-commerce (BEC) saw a modest growth of 1.4% year-over-year [1]. - The company is focusing on improving operating efficiency rather than expanding its business for the BEC segment, with expectations of over 20% year-over-year growth in non-GAAP operating profit for 2025 [1]. - The BBM segment is projected to achieve non-GAAP operating profit breakeven by 4Q25, supported by strong performances from brands like Gap and Hunter [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, total revenue is expected to reach RMB9.662 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 2.5%. The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB88.5 million, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB65.1 million in FY23A [2][11]. - The report indicates a non-GAAP operating profit forecast of RMB119 million for Baozun in 2025, with a focus on improving margins across its business segments [1][11]. - The company’s financial metrics show a projected return on equity (ROE) of 0.4% in FY25E, improving to 1.8% by FY26E [2][11]. Segment Performance - In 1Q25, BEC revenue grew by 1.4% year-over-year to RMB1.7 billion, while BBM revenue surged by 23% year-over-year to RMB387 million, driven by strong brand performance [1][8]. - The report anticipates BEC to achieve a non-GAAP operating profit growth of 33% year-over-year in 2Q25E, with an improvement in non-GAAP operating margin to 3.8% [1][8]. - The BBM segment is expected to narrow its losses to RMB40 million in 2Q25E, compared to a loss of RMB50 million in the same quarter last year [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for iQIYI, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - iQIYI's total revenue for 1Q25 declined by 9% year-over-year but increased by 9% quarter-over-quarter to RMB7.19 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - Non-GAAP operating income fell by 58% year-over-year but saw a recovery of 13% quarter-over-quarter to RMB459 million, also in line with consensus [1]. - The company is increasing investments in its content ecosystem and micro-drama user acquisition, which is expected to impact short-term margins but may provide long-term monetization opportunities [1][6]. - The target price for iQIYI has been adjusted to US$2.45, down from US$2.60, based on a 13x multiple of projected non-GAAP EPS for 3Q25-2Q26 [1][9]. Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB28.49 billion, RMB28.95 billion, and RMB29.37 billion respectively, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [7]. - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB0.73 billion, RMB1.55 billion, and RMB1.78 billion respectively, indicating a significant downward revision due to short-term margin pressures [7][8]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 23.1% in FY25E, with a gradual recovery to 26.1% by FY27E [7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - iQIYI's current trading at 8x FY26E PE suggests a safety margin compared to peers, despite the intense competition in China's video streaming sector [1][9]. - The company has made significant progress in its micro-drama ecosystem, with over 15,000 titles available, half of which are free and the other half exclusive to members [6]. Financial Performance - Membership services revenue decreased by 8% year-over-year but grew by 7% quarter-over-quarter to RMB4.40 billion in 1Q25, supported by key titles [6]. - Online advertising revenue fell by 10% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter to RMB1.33 billion, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties [6]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin was down to 6.4% in 1Q25, a decrease of 7.3 percentage points year-over-year, driven by increased content and user acquisition investments [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xpeng Inc. with a target price of US$28.00 for ADR and HK$110.00 for H-shares, indicating an upside potential of 42.2% and 41.8% respectively from current prices [3][7]. Core Views - Xpeng's 1Q25 earnings exceeded expectations due to improved gross profit margin (GPM) and government subsidies, leading to an optimistic outlook for sales volume and profitability [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven at the net level by 3Q25, supported by increased R&D investments and new model rollouts [1][7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in sales volume and GPM for FY25, with a revised forecast of 460,000 units sold, reflecting a 20,000 unit increase from previous estimates [7][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are raised to RMB 86,862 million, representing a 112.6% year-over-year growth [2][9]. - Gross profit is expected to reach RMB 13,971 million in FY25E, with a gross margin of 16.1% [9][11]. - The net loss forecast for FY25E has been revised down to RMB 907.2 million, a significant improvement from previous estimates [9][11]. - For FY26E, net profit is projected at RMB 3,683 million, reflecting a positive trajectory in profitability [9][11]. Earnings Performance - In 1Q25, Xpeng reported a revenue of RMB 15,811 million, a 141.5% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 15.6% [8][11]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in 1Q25 was RMB 168,184, showing a decline of 44.0% compared to the previous year [8][11]. - The company’s net loss for 1Q25 was RMB 664 million, which was narrower than expected, indicating improving financial health [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a P/S ratio of 1.6 for FY25E, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [2][9]. - The P/B ratio is projected to be 4.4 for FY25E, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth potential [2][9]. - The report justifies a higher valuation based on Xpeng's leading AI capabilities and clearer profit growth path [7][9].

Group 1: Company Insights - Northern Huachuang (002371 CH, Buy, Target Price: 512 RMB) is expected to see a 25% year-on-year increase in new orders in 2024, driven by strong demand for integrated circuit equipment, with this momentum continuing into Q1 2025 [2] - Baidu (BIDU US, Buy, Target Price: 144.6 USD) reported Q1 2025 core business revenue of 25.5 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 10%, primarily due to strong cloud business performance [2][6] - Weibo (WB US, Buy, Target Price: 14.5 USD) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 397 million USD, flat year-on-year, but non-GAAP net profit grew 12% to 120 million USD, exceeding expectations by 26% [6] - Palo Alto Networks (PANW US, Buy, Target Price: 229.7 USD) achieved Q3 FY25 revenue growth of 15.3% to 2.3 billion USD, with non-GAAP net profit rising 23% to 560.9 million USD [6] - ZTO Express (ZTO US / 2057 HK, Buy, Target Price: 22.2 USD / 174 HKD) reported Q1 2025 core net profit growth of 5% to 1.96 billion RMB, supported by government subsidies [6][8] - XPeng Motors (XPEV US / 9868 HK, Buy, Target Price: 28 USD / 110 HKD) exceeded Q1 2025 revenue expectations, driven by improved gross margins and government subsidies [6][8] Group 2: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,828, up 0.62% for the day and 39.77% year-to-date [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,342, up 0.51% for the day and 41.92% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,388, up 0.21% for the day and 13.87% year-to-date [3] - The US Dow Jones closed at 41,860, down 1.91% for the day but up 11.07% year-to-date [3] - The S&P 500 closed at 5,845, down 1.61% for the day and up 22.53% year-to-date [3] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market saw gains in materials, healthcare, and energy sectors, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities lagged [5] - In the US market, real estate and healthcare sectors faced the largest declines, while consumer staples and materials outperformed [5] - The report indicates that the period from May to July is a critical window for US-China trade negotiations, with expectations of potential fiscal stimulus and consumption-boosting measures from China [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Naura Technology, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Naura Technology's new orders increased by approximately 25% year-over-year in 2024, driven by strong integrated circuit (IC) orders, with continued momentum into the first quarter of 2025 [1]. - The company is expanding its product portfolio through internal R&D and external acquisitions, including a planned acquisition of a 17.9% stake in Kingsemi, a photolithography coating equipment maker [1]. - Naura is positioned as a leading player in China's semiconductor equipment market, benefiting from the country's push for semiconductor localization amid tightening export restrictions [1][9]. - The target price remains unchanged at RMB 512, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.8x for 2025 estimates, reflecting an 18.1% upside from the current price of RMB 433.66 [3][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 22,079 million in FY23A to RMB 38,909 million in FY25E, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3,899.1 million in FY23A to RMB 7,426.9 million in FY25E, with a year-over-year growth of 32.1% [2]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 41.1% in FY23A to 43.4% in FY25E, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2]. Market Context - The semiconductor equipment capital expenditure in China is estimated to exceed US$50 billion in 2024, driven by strong demand amid geopolitical uncertainties [9]. - Naura anticipates a normalization of demand for overseas products, which may create more opportunities for local vendors [9]. - The company expects investment in domestic mature nodes to stabilize over the next 2-3 years, while advanced logic and memory segments are projected to drive future growth [9].

Industry Insights - The sales data for April in the Chinese construction machinery industry shows mixed results, with non-earthmoving machinery sales fluctuating. Forklift sales remain resilient, while tower crane domestic sales have decreased by 61% year-on-year, and exports increased by 49%. Aerial work platform sales have dropped by 31% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness. The report maintains a positive outlook on earthmoving machinery due to its early recovery in project and replacement cycles [2][4]. - The report continues to favor Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH, Buy) and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH, Buy) due to their high revenue share from excavators. It also supports Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH, Buy) for its strategy of rapid expansion in emerging markets through a broad product line. Conversely, a cautious view is maintained on Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, Hold) due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [2][4]. Company Analysis - Trip.com Group (TCOM US, Buy, Target Price: $70.00) reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 13.9 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit reached RMB 4 billion, exceeding forecasts by 7%, driven by optimized sales and marketing expenses. The overall travel demand remains resilient, and the company's international expansion is progressing as planned, expected to yield long-term value [5]. - Bilibili (BILI US, Buy, Target Price: $26.50) announced Q1 2025 revenue growth of 24% to RMB 7 billion, meeting market expectations. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 362 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB 456 million in the previous year, driven by an 8% increase in gross margin and a 13% reduction in R&D expenses. The company is projected to maintain a 20% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, with further profit margin improvements anticipated [5]. - Three-Sixty Biopharmaceuticals (1530 HK, Buy, Target Price: HKD 28.32) has licensed its PD-1/VEGF candidate to Pfizer, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, along with a double-digit sales share. This deal exceeds market expectations and is expected to significantly enhance the company's profits in 2025 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM), with a target price of US$70.00, indicating a potential upside of 10.4% from the current price of US$63.38 [2][16]. Core Insights - Trip.com Group reported a total revenue of RMB13.9 billion for 1Q25, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth, which aligns with forecasts and consensus estimates. The non-GAAP operating income was RMB4.0 billion, exceeding expectations by 7% due to optimized sales and marketing expenditures [1]. - The company is on track with its overseas expansion strategy, which is expected to enhance long-term value despite potential short-term earnings pressure from increased investments [1]. - The report anticipates resilient revenue growth in 2Q25, projecting a total revenue of RMB14.6 billion, representing a 15% year-over-year increase [7]. Financial Performance - For FY25E, total revenue is projected at RMB61.5 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 15.2%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB17.8 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 1.3% compared to FY24A [8][10]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for 1Q25 was reported at 29.2%, which is 1.7 percentage points better than consensus estimates, driven by effective cost management [7][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin for 1Q25 was 80.3%, slightly below consensus expectations, indicating a need for continued focus on cost efficiency as revenue contributions from Trip.com increase [7][9]. Market Position and Growth - Trip.com’s domestic business showed strong booking volume growth, with hotel bookings increasing by approximately 10-15% year-over-year in 2Q25, while outbound bookings surpassed 120% of 2019 levels in 1Q25 [7]. - The international segment accounted for 13% of total revenue in 1Q25, with over 50% year-over-year growth, suggesting a robust recovery and expansion in overseas markets [7]. - The company is expected to maintain its investment strategy to support international growth, particularly in emerging markets like Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand, while also investing in new markets such as the Middle East and Europe [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Bilibili, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [21]. Core Insights - Bilibili's total revenue for 1Q25 increased by 24% year-over-year to RMB7.0 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates. The adjusted net income reached RMB362 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB456 million in 1Q24, driven by gross profit margin expansion and controlled R&D expenses [1][2]. - For 2Q25, the expectation is for continued strong performance with a projected 20% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by advertising and mobile games [1]. - The target price has been fine-tuned to US$26.5, reflecting a 46% upside from the current price of US$18.15, based on a 25x FY26E non-GAAP PE [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: - FY23A: RMB22,528 million - FY24A: RMB26,832 million (19.1% YoY growth) - FY25E: RMB30,584 million (14.0% YoY growth) [2][18]. - **Gross Margin**: - FY23A: 24.2% - FY24A: 32.7% - FY25E: 36.9% [2][18]. - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - FY23A: (RMB3,533.8 million) - FY24A: (RMB22.1 million) - FY25E: RMB2,243.8 million [2][18]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY25E: 534.14 RMB cents, compared to consensus EPS of 4.53 RMB [2][18]. Business Segment Performance - **Value-Added Services (VAS)**: Revenue grew by 11% YoY to RMB2.81 billion, driven by live streaming and innovative monetization methods [7]. - **Advertising Revenue**: Increased by 20% YoY to RMB2.00 billion, with performance ads growing over 30% YoY [7]. - **Mobile Games Revenue**: Strong growth of 76% YoY to RMB1.73 billion, attributed to the success of the game "SanMou" [7]. Margin Expansion - The overall gross profit margin improved by 8 percentage points YoY to 36.3% in 1Q25, with adjusted operating profit margin rising by 14 percentage points YoY to 4.9% [7][8]. Valuation and Target Price - The SOTP-derived target price of US$26.5 reflects the valuation of different business segments: - Advertising: US$12.7 (48% of total valuation) - VAS: US$6.4 (24%) - Mobile Games: US$7.2 (27%) [11][12][13]. Market Data - Market capitalization stands at approximately US$7.62 billion, with a 52-week high of US$29.66 and a low of US$12.96 [3]. - The average trading volume over the past three months is US$65.4 million [3]. User Engagement Metrics - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) grew by 8% YoY to 368 million, with average daily time spent on the platform increasing by 3% YoY to 108 minutes [7]. Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about sustaining growth in mobile games, particularly with upcoming content releases for "SanMou" [7]. - For 2Q25, total revenue is expected to reach RMB7.36 billion, with mobile games, advertising, and VAS revenue projected to grow by 63%, 18%, and 11% YoY, respectively [7].

宏观经济 中国经济-数据仍然稳健降低政策强刺激概率 2025 年 5 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 在关税冲击下，4 月中国经济活动总体放缓，但依然比预期强劲。社会零售 额增速小幅降低但仍然稳健，"以旧换新"政策支撑耐用品零售保持较快增 长。工业增加值和固定资产投资增速均略有回落，但仍高于 2024 年水平。 贸易战缓和提振市场情绪，但也降低政策强刺激概率。我们将第二季度中国 GDP 增长预测从 4.5%上调至 4.8%，下半年和全年增速分别为 4.7%和 4.9%。 由于房地产市场走弱、抢出口透支外需和以旧换新政策刺激效应边际递减， 中国经济在第三季度可能面临进一步放缓压力。政策宽松时点可能推迟至第 四季度，财政刺激、提振消费和去产能作为中国经济再平衡的重点政策可能 成为中美谈判中中方的重要出价。（链接） 公司点评 零跑汽车（9863 HK，买入，目标价：72 港元）- 1Q25 超预期；后续展望更 趋乐观 1Q25 毛利率超预期：零跑一季度收入较我们预期高出 8%，在一季度终端折 扣扩大的背景下公司仍然实现了平均售价的环比提升。一季 ...