宏观动态报告 F券 CG 利润小幅改善,库存继续去化 2025 年 1-4 月工业企业利润分析 分析师 张迪 网：zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 研究助理:铁传奥 风险提示 1. 国内政策时滞的风险 2. 海外经济衰退的风险 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 2025 年 5 月 27 日 5 月 27 日国家统计局发布：1—4 月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 ● 21170.2 亿元,同比增长 1.4%(前值 0.8%）; 实现营业收入 43.44 万亿元, 同比增长 3.2%（前值 3.4%）。3 月利润当月同比 3.0%（前值 2.6%）。工业 企业利润连续两个月正增走扩。 利润率改善对利润增速加快有较大贡献。从量、价、利润率三要素模型来看, o 贡献最多的还是量,工业增加值 1-4 月实现同比 6.4%的强劲增长,单月同比 上涨 6.1%,虽然 4 月工业增加值环比较 3 月有所下滑,但仍在"三抢"的带 动下有较高增速。4月转口贸易"抢出口"和 ...

Macro Overview - The report indicates that China's economy maintained stable growth in April, with GDP growth estimated at around 5.6%, up from 5.4% in the first quarter, supported by proactive policy measures [2][3] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the equity market, seeking structural opportunities amid a backdrop of improving risk appetite and stable fundamentals [2][3] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Passenger car retail sales showed a positive trend, with sales from May 1-18 reaching 932,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [3] - External demand continues to decline, with the Baltic Dry Index averaging 1342.4 in May, down 1.69% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year [3] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Industrial production showed mixed trends, with steel production declining and construction-related activities remaining sluggish [4] - The chemical sector exhibited varied performance, with some products seeing increases while others faced declines [4] Price Performance - CPI showed a decline in pork and fruit prices, with pork wholesale prices down 0.37% week-on-week [5] - PPI reflected a downward trend in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent down 0.70% and 1.12% respectively [5] Domestic Macro - Fiscal - The issuance of special government bonds and local government bonds accelerated, with a total of 121 billion yuan in special bonds issued this week [6][7] Domestic Macro - Investment - Infrastructure investment remains stable, with recent policies emphasizing high-quality development in the real estate sector [7] Monetary and Liquidity - The report notes a slight increase in funding rates, with the MLF net injection of 375 billion yuan, indicating a continued liquidity support from the central bank [8][20] Overseas Macro and Market - Concerns over U.S. trade policies and rising long-term debt yields have impacted global equity markets, with significant pressure on U.S. stocks [9][16] Agricultural Sector - Pet Industry Opportunities - The report highlights significant growth potential in China's pet industry, with pet penetration rates and consumption structures showing room for improvement [25][28] - The competitive landscape in the pet industry is evolving, with leading companies rapidly expanding their own brands [28][26] Banking Sector - The banking sector outperformed the market, with a 0.61% increase in bank stocks amid a broader market decline [30] - Recent interest rate cuts are expected to stabilize bank margins, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises [31][33]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing upward fluctuations due to external demand volatility combined with favorable domestic policies [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index has achieved a continuous increase for seven weeks, with a rise of 1.10% during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025 [4][2] - The healthcare, industrial, and materials sectors showed significant gains, with increases of 9.54%, 6.09%, and 6.02% respectively, while daily consumer and real estate sectors declined [7][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the average daily turnover on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 201.79 billion, a decrease of HKD 29.48 billion from the previous week [13][2] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 18.96 billion, an increase of HKD 27.64 billion compared to the previous week [14][2] - The report notes that the valuation of the Hang Seng Index has risen, with a PE ratio of 10.54 and a PB ratio of 1.1, both at the 71st percentile level since 2019 [19][2] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at a historical average level, and it recommends focusing on sectors such as technology, which is advancing in self-research and development [39][2] - It also points out that sectors benefiting from improved Sino-US relations, including durable consumer goods, defense, and household products, should be monitored [39][2] - The report emphasizes the potential of sectors that may benefit from new regulations on major asset restructuring, particularly state-owned enterprises and technology companies [39][2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index achieving a 1.10% increase and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 1.36% during the week from May 19 to May 23, marking seven consecutive weeks of gains for the Hang Seng Index [2][4]. - Among the sectors, nine industries saw gains while two experienced declines, with healthcare, industrials, and materials leading the increases at 9.54%, 6.09%, and 6.02% respectively [7][10]. Group 2: Fund Flow and Liquidity - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 201.79 billion, a decrease of HKD 29.48 billion from the previous week, while the average daily short-selling amount rose to HKD 23.32 billion, an increase of HKD 0.27 billion [13][14]. - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 18.96 billion, which is an increase of HKD 27.64 billion compared to the previous week [14]. Group 3: Valuation and Risk Premium - As of May 23, the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 10.54 times and 1.1 times, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.19% and 1.18% from the previous week, placing them at the 71st percentile since 2019 [19][28]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.97%, which is at the 10th percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively low risk appetite in the market [21][28]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are benefiting from accelerated domestic R&D, particularly in technology, as well as those that may gain from improved Sino-U.S. relations, including durable consumer goods, defense, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals [39]. - The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at a historical average level, indicating potential for future growth as domestic monetary policies take effect [39].

Economic Growth - In April, China's GDP growth rate was estimated at approximately 5.6%, up from 5.4% in the first quarter[2] - The political bureau meeting emphasized accelerating existing policy tools to support the economy in Q2[2] Domestic Demand - Subway passenger volume increased by 2.45% year-on-year as of May 22, while domestic flight numbers averaged 13,010.3, up 3.92% year-on-year[2] - Retail sales of passenger cars from May 1-18 reached 932,000 units, a 9.3% increase year-on-year and a 15.4% increase month-on-month[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,342.4 in May, down 1.69% month-on-month and 29.0% year-on-year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1,106.2 in May, a 0.60% decrease from April and an 18.6% decrease year-on-year[2] Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces fell by 0.46 percentage points to 83.67% in the last week of May[2] - The production of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.02% to 3.056 million tons[2] Price Trends - As of May 23, the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.37%, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables dropped by 1.12%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed results, with coal prices down 4.48% and iron ore prices down 2.57%[2] Fiscal Policy - A total of 121 billion yuan in special government bonds were issued this week, bringing the cumulative issuance to 757 billion yuan[3] - Local special bonds have reached a 46.9% issuance progress as of May 24, with 251 billion yuan in new special refinancing bonds issued[3] Monetary Policy - The central bank's MLF net injection was 375 billion yuan, maintaining liquidity support for the third consecutive month[4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to above 1.70%, closing at 1.7208%[4] International Market Dynamics - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.5% due to concerns over budget deficits from proposed tax cuts[4] - The U.S. manufacturing and services PMI for May was reported at 52.3, indicating a slight improvement[4] Geopolitical Risks - Trump's potential tariffs on EU goods and threats to tech companies have raised concerns in the market[4] - The EU has implemented new sanctions against Russia, contributing to ongoing geopolitical tensions[5]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in investment opportunities within the energy sector, particularly focusing on oil and gas markets, driven by rising global demand and supply constraints [4][17][19] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical factors and OPEC+ decisions, which are expected to influence market dynamics and pricing strategies [2][17][18] Industry Overview - The energy sector is projected to experience a growth rate of approximately 50% by 2025, with a notable increase in oil production and consumption [4][6] - The report indicates that the global oil demand is expected to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of 20 million barrels per day by 2025 [4][6] - The analysis of market trends shows that crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile, influenced by both demand fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [4][17] Company Analysis - Specific companies within the oil and gas sector are identified as key players, with strong potential for growth due to their strategic positioning and operational efficiencies [4][6] - The report suggests that companies focusing on renewable energy sources alongside traditional oil and gas operations may have a competitive advantage in the evolving market landscape [4][18] - Financial metrics indicate that several companies are expected to report improved earnings, driven by higher oil prices and increased production levels [4][6][19]

Core Viewpoints - The computer industry is experiencing a structural recovery led by AI computing power, with the DeepSeek model catalyzing significant market interest and performance [3][6] - The computer sector remains underweight in public fund holdings, indicating potential for future portfolio adjustments [3] Industry Performance Summary - In 2024, the computer industry reported revenues of 12,728 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.54%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 234 billion, down 39.24% [4] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 25.82%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 2.49%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating pressure on profitability due to macroeconomic conditions and intensified competition [4] - The first quarter of 2025 showed signs of recovery, with revenues reaching 2,893.26 billion, a year-on-year growth of 17.12%, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 215.1% to 39 billion [5] Cost Management and Efficiency - The first quarter of 2025 saw a reduction in overall expense ratio to 22.09%, down 3.83 percentage points, with specific reductions in R&D, sales, and management expense ratios [5] - The industry is beginning to see the effects of cost control measures and efficiency improvements, particularly through AI and personnel optimization [5] Future Outlook - The computer industry is expected to gradually improve cash flow and profitability in 2025, supported by the issuance of long-term special government bonds and ongoing local debt progress [6] - High-demand sectors such as AI computing infrastructure and domestic technology autonomy are projected to perform well, contributing to the overall recovery of the industry [6]

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the economy and the fiscal strength observed in April 2025, with overall fiscal data showing improvement in both total and structural aspects, supporting economic growth despite negative growth in public budget and government fund revenues [2][3][5] - The report emphasizes the strategic asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment in Europe, suggesting that equity assets outperform fixed income and currency assets during such periods, with a focus on structural opportunities across various phases of economic recovery [6][10] - The report discusses the significant growth of Crystal Optoelectronics, which has transitioned from a follower to a leader in optical technology, with projected revenue of 6.278 billion yuan (+23.67%) and net profit of 1.03 billion yuan (+71.57%) in 2024, driven by the recovery in the consumer electronics sector [12][13] - The real estate sector shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.80% in the first four months of 2025, indicating potential support for housing demand due to policy measures aimed at reducing purchase barriers [21][25] - The banking sector is experiencing a stabilization of interest margins due to asymmetric interest rate cuts, with the LPR and deposit rates being adjusted to promote lower financing costs for businesses and consumers, which is expected to enhance the overall banking performance [27][30] Fiscal Analysis - The fiscal data for January to April 2025 shows a combined expenditure growth rate of 7.2%, while revenue growth is at -1.3%, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic resilience [2][3] - Government fund expenditure growth has accelerated, with a notable increase in special bond issuance, which is expected to further support infrastructure investment [5][3] - Land revenue has shown signs of recovery, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline to -11.4%, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market [4][3] Real Estate Sector - The report indicates that the sales area for commercial housing has seen a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.80%, with April's sales area showing a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous year [21][22] - Investment in real estate development remains negative, with a 10.30% year-on-year decline in the first four months of 2025, highlighting ongoing challenges in the sector [22][25] - The report suggests that ongoing policy support may help improve housing demand, particularly for first-time and upgrading buyers [25][21] Banking Sector - The LPR has been reduced by 10 basis points, with the one-year and five-year rates now at 3% and 3.5% respectively, aimed at lowering overall financing costs [27][28] - The adjustment in deposit rates is expected to stabilize banks' interest margins, with a projected increase in net interest margins due to the recent rate cuts [28][30] - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from improved fundamentals and a potential recovery in public fund allocations, which may enhance profitability [30][29]

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the economy and the fiscal strength observed in April 2025, with overall fiscal data showing improvement in both total and structural aspects, supporting economic growth despite negative growth in public budget and government fund revenues [2][5] - The report emphasizes the strategic asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment in Europe, suggesting that equity assets outperform fixed income and currency assets during such periods, with a focus on structural opportunities across different economic phases [10][6] - The company Crystal Optoelectronics has transitioned from a follower to a leader in optical technology, with significant revenue and profit growth expected in 2024 and 2025, driven by product demand in the consumer electronics sector and advancements in AI and optics [12][13] Fiscal Analysis - The fiscal data for January to April 2025 shows a combined expenditure growth rate of 7.2%, while revenue growth remains negative at -1.3%, indicating a widening gap between expenditure and revenue, which supports the economy's resilience [3][4] - Government debt issuance has accelerated, with a cumulative financing of 4.8 trillion yuan in the first four months, significantly higher than the previous year, which is expected to further support economic stability [5][6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in sales area and a positive shift in domestic loans, indicating potential support for housing demand due to policy measures [21][24] - Despite a continued negative growth in investment, the report suggests that the head companies in the real estate sector are likely to benefit from improved operational management and increased market share [25][22] Banking Sector - The recent LPR and deposit rate cuts are expected to stabilize bank interest margins, with a projected improvement in bank performance due to supportive financial policies and structural tools [27][30] - The report indicates that the banking sector is poised for a performance turnaround, with a focus on long-term capital inflows and the realization of banking dividends [30][29]

Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) was significantly positive, with a peak increase of 30.00% for the top-performing stock, Ningxin New Materials (宁新新材) on May 21, 2025[8] - The average daily change for A-shares (沪深300) was lower, indicating a divergence in performance between the two markets[7] Trading Volume and Turnover - The total trading volume on the North Exchange reached 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16.0% as of May 21, 2025[6] - The trading activity shows a consistent upward trend, reflecting increased investor interest in the North Exchange[6] Stock Performance - The top ten gainers included stocks from various sectors, with market capitalizations ranging from 17.02 billion CNY to 511.16 billion CNY[8] - Conversely, the top ten losers experienced declines up to -14.03%, with significant losses in sectors like construction and electronics[9] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the North Exchange companies varied widely, with some stocks showing negative earnings and extremely high P/E ratios, such as Weichuang Optoelectronics (微创光电) at 320.12[9] - The valuation metrics indicate a mixed outlook, with some sectors appearing overvalued while others remain attractive[10] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights several risks, including lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, and increased market competition, which could impact future performance[13]