【国君化妆品】若羽臣：2月绽家强劲、斐萃超预期，持续重点推荐！ 绽家势能强劲、斐萃持续超预期，持续回购彰显长期信心。 预计公司25年利润1.5亿同比+50%，若参考股权激励目标1.8亿（扣除费用摊销约为1.7亿）则当前对应25年PEG不 足1x，考虑稀缺成长性及高业绩兑现度，持续重点推荐！ 绽家：1、2月绽家线上gmv7000、6000万同比三位数增长。 近期38活动绽家洗衣 【国君化妆品】若羽臣：2月绽家强劲、斐萃超预期，持续重点推荐！ 绽家势能强劲、斐萃持续超预期，持续回购彰显长期信心。 预计公司25年利润1.5亿同比+50%，若参考股权激励目标1.8亿（扣除费用摊销约为1.7亿）则当前对应25年PEG不 足1x，考虑稀缺成长性及高业绩兑现度，持续重点推荐！ 绽家：1、2月绽家线上gmv7000、6000万同比三位数增长。 近期38活动绽家洗衣凝珠登上李佳琦直播间，抖音推新赫本联名款洗衣液、新开号场观迅速提升，预计3月有望实 现亮眼表现，全年有望实现10亿收入。 斐萃：1、2月斐萃线上gmv2000+、3000+万超预期。 近期斐萃联名绽家推出助眠瓶+喷雾礼盒，3月有望上线红宝石油新品、H2推出新保健品自 ...

我们测算过按期复产的话，2025年产量yoy+30多万桶/天。 ＃平衡表概况：需求+110；供给OPEC+30，常规+70，页岩+40，基本平衡。 我们测算过按期复产的话，2025年产量yoy+30多万桶/天。 ＃平衡表概况：需求+110；供给OPEC+30，常规+70，页岩+40，基本平衡。 ＃地缘方面：俄美会谈将在沙特进行，不排除涉及能源问题。 作为沙特增产的交换，俄制裁 昨夜油价大跌点评 昨夜油价大跌点评 ＃OPEC主要国家昨天决定，从4月1号开始逐步灵活的恢复220万桶产量。 ＃OPEC主要国家昨天决定，从4月1号开始逐步灵活的恢复220万桶产量。 作为沙特增产的交换，俄制裁解禁（目前尚未，作为一种可能性）的交换，是否可能极限施压伊朗，是关注重 点。 我们暂维持2025年油价中枢70wti/75brent不变。 ＃地缘方面：俄美会谈将在沙特进行，不排除涉及能源问题。 ...

特朗普：美对墨加商品加征25%关税将于3月4日生效 美国总统特朗普表示，对等关税将于4月2日开始征收，美国对墨西哥和加拿大商品征收25%的关税将于3月4日生 效。 美国总统特朗普表示，对墨西哥和加拿大的关税没有达成共识的空间。 特朗普2月1日签署行政令，对进口自墨西哥、加拿大两国的产品加征25%的关税，其中对加拿大能源产品的加税 幅度为10%。 2月3日，特朗普宣布对两国加征关税措 特朗普：美对墨加商品加征25%关税将于3月4日生效 美国总统特朗普表示，对等关税将于4月2日开始征收，美国对墨西哥和加拿大商品征收25%的关税将于3月4日生 效。 2月27日，特朗普表示，对墨西哥和加拿大的关税措施仍将于3月4日实施。 美国总统特朗普表示，对墨西哥和加拿大的关税没有达成共识的空间。 特朗普2月1日签署行政令，对进口自墨西哥、加拿大两国的产品加征25%的关税，其中对加拿大能源产品的加税 幅度为10%。 2月3日，特朗普宣布对两国加征关税措施暂缓30天实施，并继续进行谈判。 ...

1）镜头：舜宇为全球龙一，ADAS领域优势明显，深度受益智驾下沉！ 2）模组：业务快速增长，后续日系/欧美/国内定点落地有望带来较大增量。 【中泰电子|舜宇光学科技】深度受益智驾平权，重视北美客户潜在α+AR远期成长 全球车载镜头龙一，深度受益智驾平权！ 继比亚迪之后，3.3日吉利发布高阶智驾普及方案，搭载10-13颗摄像头，智驾平权下摄像头确定性最高！ 【中泰电子|舜宇光学科技】深度受益智驾平权，重视北美客户潜在α+AR远期成长 2）北美：镜头业务毛利率&份额有望逐步提升，未来进入北美后摄模组潜在α值得重视，北美后摄模组空间约 1200亿元，空间广阔！ 安卓业务具备 全球车载镜头龙一，深度受益智驾平权！ 继比亚迪之后，3.3日吉利发布高阶智驾普及方案，搭载10-13颗摄像头，智驾平权下摄像头确定性最高！ 1）镜头：舜宇为全球龙一，ADAS领域优势明显，深度受益智驾下沉！ 2）模组：业务快速增长，后续日系/欧美/国内定点落地有望带来较大增量。 安卓业务具备盈利弹性，北美模组潜在α值得重视！ 1）安卓：公司安卓手机收入占比高，产品高端化持续推进+手机补贴抬升稼动率有望带动毛利率持续向上。 风险提示：智能手机需求 ...

【国金策略|张弛团队】"波动率"再起、成长分化，增长型红利价值凸显 年后A股市场开启了明显的上涨趋势，我们重点推荐的：电子、计算机及机器人方向均得到验证，其中港股"AI含 量更高"行情演绎更加极致。 居民、企业资产负债表修复偏弱，国内基本面亦可能有所"转弱"。 1月零售数据远低于市场预期。 "经济弱、通胀强"的叙事似乎正在上演，2025年美国"滞胀"可能性明显提升。 市场"波动率"或再次回升，成长风格或整体"退潮"，部分结构性科技方向依然有望"穿越"。 整体而言，中小盘成长风格将"切换"至大盘价值防御；考虑A股"市场底"已现+AI产业逻辑催化，预计科技成长依 然具备部分结构性"穿越"机会。 年后A股市场开启了明显的上涨趋势，我们重点推荐的：电子、计算机及机器人方向均得到验证，其中港股"AI含 量更高"行情演绎更加极致。 居民、企业资产负债表修复偏弱，国内基本面亦可能有所"转弱"。 1月新、旧口径下的M1同比均出现放缓，即便剔除春节效应，M1最理想状态依然下滑3%，M1或将再次出现"阶段 性"回落。 事实上，2月PMI数据环比因"春节效应"边际改善、但动能仍旧偏弱。 美国"滞胀"风险继续升温，亦可能通过"出口" ...

国家网安通报中心通报开源跨平台大模型工具Ollama存在未授权访问风险、数据泄露风险、历史漏洞利用风险 等。 Ollama是啥？ Ollama是啥？ 部署D.S.等大模型必备的类MaaS 招商计算机：接着昨天D.S.的点评，阿里云、腾讯云和"AI应用"受益是没有争议的！AI应用，我们认为to B的商 业化会更快，企业主利用AI赋能最重要的场景入口就是ERP、OA，继续强推【用友网络、金蝶国际】及【泛微网 络】 招商计算机：接着昨天D.S.的点评，阿里云、腾讯云和"AI应用"受益是没有争议的！AI应用，我们认为to B的商 业化会更快，企业主利用AI赋能最重要的场景入口就是ERP、OA，继续强推【用友网络、金蝶国际】及【泛微网 络】 国家网安通报中心通报开源跨平台大模型工具Ollama存在未授权访问风险、数据泄露风险、历史漏洞利用风险 等。 ...

# 煤矿等矿山场景智能化升级空间较大 煤矿等矿山场景，工作环境恶劣、危险性高、任务繁重，在相关场景推动机器人和AI落地，既 【东方计算机】梅安森董事长带队与宇树交流，矿山机器人未来可期 我们在上周一提示投资者，可以关注梅安森，一周来公司股价上涨26.2%，超额收益明显。 我们认为，公司在矿山领域卡位优势明显，矿用机器人和垂直模型未来落地可期，建议投资者继续重点关注。 【东方计算机】梅安森董事长带队与宇树交流，矿山机器人未来可期 我们在上周一提示投资者，可以关注梅安森，一周来公司股价上涨26.2%，超额收益明显。 我们认为，公司在矿山领域卡位优势明显，矿用机器人和垂直模型未来落地可期，建议投资者继续重点关注。 # 煤矿等矿山场景智能化升级空间较大 煤矿等矿山场景，工作环境恶劣、危险性高、任务繁重，在相关场景推动机器人和AI落地，既有很高的经济价 值，同时又能满足煤矿安全生产的刚需。 以国内4400座煤矿、从业人员约280万人为基数，如果实现20%-30%的替换比例，即可产生千亿级市场。 #卡位优势明显，管理团队已与宇树科技深度交流 公司长期深耕煤矿领域，拥有煤炭安全系统感知系统等6大系统，把握住了场景入口并具备 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Chinese photovoltaic (PV) industry, featuring four companies: GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, LONGi Green Energy, and Trina Solar [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Cash Flow Generation as a Priority**: - Cash flow generation has become the primary concern for companies in the industry. GCL-Poly, Daqo, and LONGi reported that the implementation of the production allocation mechanism has led to a rapid decrease in inventory and an increase in industry chain prices due to rising demand [2][3]. - GCL-Poly indicated that more companies might join the self-discipline alliance, which would enhance supply control at the industry level [2]. - Daqo stated that its production target for 2025 is below the allocated quota, emphasizing that maintaining healthy inventory levels with lower capacity utilization is crucial for sustainable price increases in 2025 [2]. 2. **Policy Support for Supply-Demand Rebalancing**: - Multiple companies confirmed they are monitoring potential new policy announcements that could support industry rebalancing, following the guidance from the State Council's meeting on February 10 [3]. - LONGi expects that large-scale base construction and state-owned enterprise investments will continue to support PV installations in the second half of 2025 [3]. 3. **Focus on Balance of System (BOS)**: - Unlike previous cycles, PV developers are now focusing on the Balance of System (BOS) to further reduce installation costs. This shift is seen as a response to concerns about sustainable pricing in a market-driven environment [5]. - Trina Solar believes that there is more room for cost savings in non-module system components, which could help protect return rates despite potential pressure on module prices [5]. 4. **Quality Standards as a Balancing Mechanism**: - LONGi suggested that raising product quality standards could effectively accelerate the rebalancing of downstream battery and module segments. For instance, a recent tender in Shaanxi Province set a minimum module efficiency requirement of 24.2%, which is higher than the mainstream efficiency of Topcon modules [5]. Additional Important Insights - GCL-Poly emphasized that inventory levels are a key indicator for adjusting capacity utilization [3]. - There is a potential for implementing threshold requirements on existing capacities across various segments of the industry chain, as noted by GCL-Poly [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the storage industry, particularly on DRAM and NAND technologies, as well as the emerging CUBE stacking storage technology [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Storage Cycle**: The storage cycle is currently at a low point, with recovery expected to take at least another quarter. A genuine recovery in the market is anticipated in the second half of the year, despite price increases by manufacturers in Q2 [1][1]. - **DRAM Recovery**: Niche DRAM is expected to see a recovery between July and August, but the attitude of mainland manufacturers remains uncertain [1][1]. - **SLC NAND and NOR Flash**: SLC NAND is experiencing a flat market, while NOR Flash prices are not expected to rise significantly in Q1 and Q2, with improvements projected for the second half of the year [1][1]. - **Production Cuts**: Major manufacturers like Samsung and Hynix have officially ceased DDR3 shipments, leading to limited DDR3 capacity, with Micron being the only significant player still producing [1][1]. DDR4 production has also been reduced to less than 20% of normal capacity, with a complete phase-out of 4Gb and below DDR4 products expected by year-end [1][1]. - **Price Impact**: The reduction in DDR3 production began to reflect in prices last year, but high inventory levels among Taiwanese and mainland manufacturers have prevented significant price increases [1][1][2]. Additional Important Content - **CUBE Stacking Storage**: CUBE is a simplified 3D stacking technology that offers lower performance compared to HBM. The pricing for leading manufacturers in Taiwan and mainland China is around $1.5 per GB, with a 20nm process [3][3]. - **Cost Implications for AI Devices**: The integration of CUBE in AI smartphones adds approximately 200 RMB to the cost per unit, with specific configurations in robotics showing a value of around $3 + $14 [3][3]. - **Profit Distribution**: In terms of profit sharing, a storage company in Beijing is expected to capture all profits from the SOC side and 60-90% of profits from the CUBE side, while Taiwanese leaders are unable to penetrate the security and robotics sectors [3][3]. - **Potential Applications**: CUBE technology may also find applications in AI glasses, security, smartphones, and ASICs [3][3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The defense industry is experiencing a significant increase in global investment, particularly in Europe, where countries are enhancing their defense budgets in response to the ongoing support for Ukraine. This has led to a notable rise in defense stocks within the European market [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. The international situation is becoming increasingly tense, and defense construction remains a top priority for the country. The easing of US-Russia relations is perceived as a more severe challenge for the country, emphasizing the importance of defense development [2]. 2. The upcoming defense budget announcement is anticipated, with a focus on the cumulative effect of equipment expenditures. It is expected that the country's defense budget will continue to grow moderately in 2025, with equipment construction likely to show a cumulative effect by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][3]. 3. There are clear signs of recovery in the industry, with a rapid improvement in the order side. Several companies have reported a noticeable improvement in orders, indicating a reversal signal for the sector [3][4]. Important but Overlooked Content - Key areas of focus for investment include: - **Missile Sector**: Companies such as 菲利华, 航天电器, 北方导航, 新雷能, and 盟升电子 are highlighted. - **Aircraft Sector**: Companies like 中航沈飞, 中航成飞, 航发动力, and 中航高科 are noted for their potential. - **New Combat Capabilities**: Companies including 洪都航空, 晶品特装, 中无人机, and 航天彩虹 are identified as significant players in this area [4].