证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 4 月 28 日 | 4 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 600428.SH | 中远海特 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | | 603081.SH | 大丰实业 | | 002916.SZ | 深南电路 | | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3295.06 | (0.07) | | 深证成指 | 9917.06 | 0.39 | | 沪深 300 | 3786.99 | 0.07 | | 中小 100 | 6232.97 | 0.47 | | 创业板指 | 1947.19 | 0.59 | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 公用事业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown robust revenue and net profit growth in 2024, with a significant increase in Q1 2025. The upgraded "3+N+3" business strategy and the "China + VMI" global capacity layout are expected to drive future growth [3][8] - The company is positioned well in the consumer electronics sector, with a strong competitive edge in multiple product categories, including smartphones, personal computers, and data centers [8] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 139.19 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.7% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 3.61 billion, with a growth rate of 23.5% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 3.56, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.7 times [5][7] - The EBITDA for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 4.78 billion, indicating a significant increase from previous years [7] Strategic Developments - The company has successfully upgraded its "3+N+3" strategy, establishing a comprehensive product platform that includes smart devices and emerging fields such as automotive electronics and robotics [8] - The global supply chain system, characterized by a "1+5+5" structure, supports the company's operational efficiency and future growth [8]

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 603136.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 12.39 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 7.6 1.5 7.9 (37.0) 相对上证综指 6.6 3.7 6.6 (44.9) (27%) (19%) (11%) (3%) 4% 12% Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 天目湖 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 270.13 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 270.13 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 3,346.87 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 86.08 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 溧阳市城市建设发展集团有限公司 | 26.86 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 25 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《天目湖》2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [2][5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 15.88 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.79%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.03 billion, up 32.36% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of RMB 5.27 billion, reflecting a 17.90% increase year-on-year and a 44.29% increase quarter-on-quarter [5][10][11]. - The dye industry is expected to recover, and the company is anticipated to benefit from increased sales of various chemical products and ongoing real estate projects, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][7][10]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 was RMB 15,883.86 million, with a growth rate of 3.79% compared to 2023. The EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 2,900 million, and the net profit was RMB 2,354.86 million, marking a 35.88% increase year-on-year [11][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.62, with a slight adjustment in forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting EPS of RMB 0.63 and RMB 0.71 respectively [7][15]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 27.87%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability despite challenges in the dye market [10][11]. Business Segments - The dye and intermediate business showed resilience, with revenue from the dye segment reaching RMB 75.91 billion in 2024, a 0.94% increase year-on-year, despite a 5.81% decline in average price per ton [10][11]. - The real estate segment saw significant growth, with revenue of RMB 24.82 billion, up 87.26% year-on-year, driven by project deliveries [10][11]. - The company has a strong market position in the dye industry, with a production capacity of 300,000 tons per year, and is expanding its intermediate product offerings to enhance its competitive edge [10][11].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the acceleration of long-term capital inflow into the A-share market, driven by policy support and structural optimization [1][10][12] - The policy framework for promoting long-term capital entry has been established, with significant contributions from various government departments [11][15][23] - Institutional investment in A-shares is expected to increase, with large state-owned insurance companies aiming to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares starting in 2025, potentially bringing in hundreds of billions in long-term capital [16][23] Group 2 - The report highlights a shift in investment style towards stability, with long-term funds favoring low-volatility, high-cash-flow core assets such as finance, consumption, and public utilities [1][10][14] - The entry of long-term capital is anticipated to reduce market volatility and enhance liquidity, contributing to a more mature market structure [1][10][18] - The report notes that the OCI account plays a crucial role in optimizing capital allocation and stabilizing long-term capital inflow [1][10][27] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of long-term capital on the A-share market, indicating a potential transition from high-volatility, high-growth investments to low-volatility, high-certainty investments [1][10][14] - It identifies a structural differentiation in asset allocation preferences among different types of long-term investors, with insurance funds focusing on financial and cyclical stocks, while public funds may increase allocations to technology growth stocks [1][10][24] - The report also mentions the importance of long-term performance evaluation mechanisms for institutional investors to encourage a focus on sustainable returns [19][20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company's profits are under pressure due to strategic investments and market conditions, but it continues to focus on technological improvements and market expansion in its semiconductor business [3][4][7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 76.21 billion, RMB 92.79 billion, and RMB 109.86 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 1.08 billion, RMB 3.04 billion, and RMB 4.26 billion [4][6] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 58.17 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.53%, but a net loss of RMB 1.98 billion [7] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 15.80 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.77%, but a net profit of RMB 0.09 billion, down 62.24% year-on-year [7] - The company's PCB business generated revenue of RMB 43.00 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 26.96%, down 1.76 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The semiconductor business generated revenue of RMB 12.85 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of -33.16%, down 28.60 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to have a revenue growth rate of 31.0% in 2025, followed by 21.7% in 2026 and 18.4% in 2027 [6][21] - The projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 108 million, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [6][21] Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a PE ratio of 177.6 in 2025, decreasing to 63.3 in 2026 and 45.1 in 2027 [4][6] - The projected EBITDA for 2025 is RMB 732 million, with a significant increase in the following years [6][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][7] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable overall performance in its financial results for 2024 and Q1 2025, benefiting from cost reductions and improved gross margins [1][4][7] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.29 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a net profit of RMB 666 million, up 4.4% year-on-year [4][6][9] - The report highlights the significant impact of the Spring Festival timing on quarterly performance, with a notable decline in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 [1][4][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit growth rates for 2024 were 11.3% and 4.4% respectively, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 combined showing a revenue decline of 0.8% but a net profit increase of 4.9% [4][7][9] - The gross margin improved significantly in Q1 2025, reaching 48.1%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The core product, almond milk, generated RMB 3.19 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for 97% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 11.4% [7][9] Market and Shareholder Information - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately RMB 10.44 billion, with major shareholder Wanxiang Agricultural Group holding 41.61% [4][6] - The average daily trading volume over the past three months was RMB 123.73 million [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new product launches in 2025, which are anticipated to contribute positively to revenue growth [1][4][7] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to be RMB 0.67, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6][10]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Overview - In Q1 2024, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 15,093.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, marking a positive turnaround from the previous months[2] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in March 2024 was 2.6% year-on-year[5] - The operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 3.4% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with a revenue per 100 yuan of assets reaching 71.7 yuan, up by 4.1 yuan from the previous months[5] Group 2: Cost and Profitability Analysis - Operating costs for industrial enterprises rose by 3.6% year-on-year in Q1 2024, outpacing the revenue growth rate, indicating ongoing cost pressures[5] - The operating income profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.7% in Q1 2024, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous months[5] - The industrial added value growth rate was 6.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, slightly up by 0.6 percentage points from January-February[6] Group 3: Sector Contributions and Economic Outlook - Manufacturing profits grew by 7.6% year-on-year in Q1 2024, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous months, enhancing overall industrial profitability[9] - The mining sector's profit decreased by 25.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, negatively impacting the overall industrial profit growth by 5.0 percentage points[8] - The central government emphasized boosting domestic demand and stabilizing investment as key economic strategies for 2024, with a focus on enhancing consumption's role in economic growth[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The industry is significantly influenced by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in oil prices, with a recommendation to focus on quarterly earnings reports and companies with stable dividend policies [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and the resilience of energy companies [2][10] - The mid-to-long-term investment themes include sustained high oil prices, growth in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of April 27, the SW basic chemical sector's TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 21.45, at the 56.30% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.76, at the 8.83% historical percentile [2][10] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector's TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 10.41, at the 9.89% historical percentile, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.16, at the 0.93% historical percentile [2][10] - The report notes a significant impact from tariff policies and oil price volatility, suggesting a focus on quarterly earnings and companies with robust dividend policies [2][10] Price Trends - In the week of April 21-27, 17 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 58 experienced declines, and 25 remained stable [9][34] - The average price of polymer MDI increased by 6.01% week-on-week, reaching 15,000 CNY/ton, although it is down 10.18% year-on-year [36] - The average price of vitamins decreased, with vitamin A down 9.33% week-on-week and vitamin E down 6.09% week-on-week [34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others with strong dividend policies and growth potential in new materials [2][10] - Specific stocks highlighted for April include Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology, both showing strong performance metrics [11][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies' performance elasticity and high-growth sub-industries, particularly in the context of policy support for demand recovery [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The first quarter saw a significant increase in photovoltaic (PV) installations in China, with a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, totaling 59.71 GW [2][21] - The government is pushing for the development of hydrogen energy applications, particularly in transportation, with a budget of 2.34 billion yuan allocated for fuel cell vehicle demonstrations [1][21] - The report highlights the importance of cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, focusing on the optimization of leading companies in silicon materials and battery cells [1] - The wind power sector is expected to see steady progress in domestic and overseas demand, with a recommendation to prioritize investments in turbine and casting segments [1] - The electric vehicle market is projected to maintain high growth, driven by government support for smart connected vehicles, which will boost demand for batteries and materials [1] - The report emphasizes the potential of solid-state battery commercialization by 2027, benefiting companies involved in battery, materials, and equipment [1] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes a strong growth trajectory in PV installations, with March 2025 alone contributing 20.24 GW [2][21] - The focus remains on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, particularly in silicon materials and battery cell production [1] Wind Power Sector - Domestic and overseas demand for wind power is expected to improve, with recommendations to invest in turbine and casting segments [1] Electric Vehicles - The government aims to significantly develop smart connected electric vehicles, which is anticipated to drive battery and material demand [1] Hydrogen Energy - Continuous policy support for hydrogen energy development is noted, with applications in green hydrogen and chemical sectors expected to expand [1][21] Company Performance - Notable company performances include: - Sunshine Power reported a net profit of 11.036 billion yuan in 2024, up 16.92% year-on-year, and 3.826 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 82.52% [23] - Other companies like Keda and EVE Energy also reported significant year-on-year profit increases in Q1 2025 [23]