证券研究报告 铜业弹性表 ——2025年5月更新 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 苏湘涵 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 suxianghan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 01 铜业弹性表 2025年5月20日 行业评级：看好 | 添加标题 | | --- | 资料来源：公司年报，公司公告，公司公众号，浙商证券研究所。注： 2 2025-2027年产量数据为预测值，存在预测偏差风险。江西铜业 统计公司自有矿数据；云南铜业统计并表产量口径；金诚信2024-2026年产量中未统计Lubambe铜矿（因公告矿山处于技改阶段）。 02 风险提示 3 添加标题 数据预测偏差风险； 公司项目推进不及预期； 铜价上涨不及预期等。 行业评级与免责声明 加标题点击此处添加标题点击此处添加 添加标题添加标题点击此处添加标题 添加标题 95% 1、看好 ：行业指数相对于沪深300指数表现＋10%以上； 2、中性 ：行业指数相对于沪深300指数表现－10%～＋10%以上； 3、看淡 ：行业指数相对于沪深300指数表现－10%以下。 行业的投资评级 以报告日后的6个月内， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7] Core Viewpoints - The official launch of 5G-A is expected to enhance user value, providing significant improvements in capacity, speed, latency, positioning, and reliability compared to 5G [1][3] - Major telecom operators have commenced 5G-A commercial services, with China Mobile aiming to develop 50 million 5G-A users in 2024 [1][2] - 5G-A is anticipated to drive double-digit growth in DOU (average monthly data usage per user) and ARPU (average revenue per user) due to its integration with AI and the introduction of diverse service packages [3][4] - The infrastructure for 5G-A is being rapidly developed, with over 100,000 5G-A base stations expected to be deployed in 2024 [4][5] - Telecom operators are adjusting their investment structures to focus on the future development of 5G-A, with significant planned investments for 2025 [5][9] Summary by Sections 5G-A Commercial Launch - China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom have all launched 5G-A service packages with various pricing tiers [1][2] - China Mobile's 5G-A package ranges from 199 to 999 yuan per month, targeting a user base of 50 million [1] - China Telecom offers three 5G-A packages priced at 199, 299, and 399 yuan, along with additional data packages [1][2] User Experience and Market Potential - The integration of 5G-A with AI is expected to transform network operations and enhance user experience through tailored service offerings [3] - New technologies such as 3CC carrier aggregation and low-latency networks are set to empower various industries, including smart cities and industrial internet [3][4] Infrastructure Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined plans for nationwide 5G-A coverage in major cities [4] - China Mobile plans to invest 9.8 billion yuan in 2025 to expand its 5G-A infrastructure [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom due to their strong profitability and high dividend yields amidst a complex macroeconomic environment [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The reduction in deposit rates is greater than expected, with the average reduction being 16 basis points, which is higher than the 10 basis points reduction in loan rates, indicating a clear regulatory support for interest margins [5] - The phenomenon of deposit disintermediation is expected to persist long-term, although the degree of disintermediation is weaker than last year due to manual interest compensation governance [2] - The average annualized yield for cash management products is 1.46%, which is higher than the actual interest rate for state-owned banks' 1-year deposits by 36 basis points, suggesting that wealth management products still have a comparative advantage over deposits [2] Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustments - As of May 20, 2025, the LPR for 1-year and 5-year has been lowered by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, with significant reductions in various deposit rates across state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank [5] - The new rates for different deposit types include a reduction in the current deposit rate to 0.05% and a 15 basis point reduction for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year fixed deposits [5] Market Impact - Short-term market expectations for interest rate cuts have been fully priced in, with limited immediate impact on bond market prices. However, in the medium to long term, the reduction in deposit rates may improve funding costs and lead to a decline in bond yields [3] - The improvement in funding costs is expected to enhance the ticket yield for banks, as previous constraints on allocation due to funding costs are alleviated [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are not in the latter stage but rather at the beginning of a long cycle, with regulatory support for interest margins and declining rates benefiting dividend stocks [6] - Key recommendations include city commercial banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank, as well as dividend-paying banks like Agricultural Bank and China CITIC Bank [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a 12% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024 and a 38% increase for Q1 2025, driven by growth in automotive smart cockpit and lightweight components [1][2] - The automotive parts business is expected to grow rapidly due to trends in automotive intelligence and lightweighting, with significant market potential in smart cockpit solutions and lightweight materials [3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 751 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.83%, and a net profit of 38 million yuan, up 12.18% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 203 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.04%, and a net profit of 11.18 million yuan, up 37.68% [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 22.08%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.2%, up 0.36 percentage points [2] Growth Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.007 billion, 1.196 billion, and 1.402 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 19%, and 17% respectively [5] - Net profit projections for the same period are approximately 61 million, 82 million, and 115 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 59%, 36%, and 39% respectively [5] Market Trends - The global market for automotive smart cockpit solutions is expected to reach 429.6 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17% [3] - The lightweight automotive parts market is projected to grow significantly, with the global tailgate market expected to reach 15 billion USD by the end of 2027 [3] Competitive Position - The company has established a strong customer base in both the smart home and automotive sectors, collaborating with well-known brands such as Huawei, BYD, and Xiaomi [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 470 million yuan, down 23.4% year-over-year. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 480 million yuan, a decrease of 1.9% year-over-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-over-year [1][2] Performance Summary - In 2024, the company faced pressure on performance due to a slowdown in bidding and fluctuations in demand for new energy testing. However, the company is in a strategic upgrade phase, with ongoing construction projects expected to enhance long-term growth potential. The company is transitioning from a flat detector supplier to a comprehensive imaging solution provider, indicating strong medium to long-term investment value [2][4] - The company launched new medical products, including a 64-row medical CT detector module, and high-end DSA detectors have entered mass production. The new core component business generated revenue of 126 million yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 45.5%, while the comprehensive solutions and technical services business achieved revenue of 86.8 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 226.3% [2][3] Growth Potential - The company has established overseas sales or customer service platforms in various countries, including the USA, Germany, South Korea, India, Japan, Mexico, Pakistan, Brazil, and South Africa. The company has seen positive growth from major customers, with dental products achieving small batch sales overseas and industrial core components performing well, generating nearly 100 million yuan in revenue [4] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in gross margin and a decrease in operating expense ratios as low-margin new products scale up. The operating cash flow for 2024 was 360 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 5.9% [9][10] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 2.23 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 22.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 599 million yuan, an increase of 28.67% year-over-year. The expected EPS for 2025 is 4.18 yuan, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 29.7 times [10][12]

Economic Overview - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index also showed positive growth, rising by 6.0% year-on-year in April[2] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April, down from 5.9% in the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in consumer spending[3] - Major categories like home appliances and cultural office supplies saw double-digit growth, contributing significantly to retail sales performance[3][20] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year from January to April, slightly below market expectations[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8%, while manufacturing investment rose by 8.8%, but real estate development investment fell by 10.3%[4] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting stable employment conditions[5] Policy Implications - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis points interest rate reduction[1] - The government is focusing on implementing more proactive fiscal policies to support economic recovery, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors[47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 470 million yuan, down 23.4% year-over-year. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 480 million yuan, a decrease of 1.9% year-over-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-over-year [1][2] - The company is currently in a strategic upgrade phase, with ongoing construction projects and product line expansions. Although short-term pressures from fixed asset depreciation may affect profits, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the rapid growth in the sectors the company operates in [2][4] - New product launches, such as the 64-row medical CT detector module and high-end DSA detectors, have entered mass production. The company has also made significant progress in developing key technologies related to photon counting detectors [2][3] Performance Analysis - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 50.1%, a decrease of 7.7 percentage points year-over-year, and the net profit margin was 24.6%, down 7.9 percentage points year-over-year. The changes in product mix are believed to be the main reason for this decline [9] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 360 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 5.9%, with the net cash flow from operating activities accounting for 94.2% of net operating income, showing a significant improvement [9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 4.18 yuan, 5.19 yuan, and 6.30 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.7 times for 2025. Given the company's successful expansion of new products and pipelines, the long-term growth potential is considered substantial [10][12]

Market Overview - On May 19, the Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged, while the CSI 300 decreased by 0.31%. The STAR Market 50 increased by 0%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.45%, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.33%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.05% [4] - The best-performing sectors on May 19 were comprehensive (+1.99%), environmental protection (+1.87%), real estate (+1.75%), national defense and military industry (+1.05%), and social services (+1.02%). The worst-performing sectors included food and beverage (-0.9%), automotive (-0.33%), banking (-0.32%), non-ferrous metals (-0.25%), and telecommunications (-0.23%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on May 19 was 1,118.9 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 8.459 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Insights - The report emphasizes the need to focus on commercial assets in 2025 due to the current cycle being different from previous ones, necessitating policy-driven consumption to restore valuations for consumer-related companies [5] - The value of commercial assets lies in their ability to generate stable cash flows, which is particularly prominent in weaker economic conditions [5] - Investment opportunities are identified where the valuation of shopping malls can be compared to the long-term bond yields. If a commercial company's dividend yield exceeds the long-term bond yield, it indicates that the market may undervalue its perpetual cash flow attributes, suggesting potential for valuation recovery. The report suggests that the minimum valuation for shopping mall enterprises should be compared to the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds, with PE ratios for companies with dividend yields higher than China's 10-year Treasury yield expected to exceed 10-15x, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [5] - Catalysts for investment include the introduction of consumption-related stimulus policies and rental income exceeding expectations [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to experience performance release in the marine sector due to a full order backlog, with a projected revenue of 48.055 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.63% [1][5] - The company has a strong order book in the energy network sector, with total orders amounting to approximately 31.2 billion yuan, including 13.4 billion yuan from the marine series [2] - The company has made significant advancements in the marine sector, successfully delivering key projects and enhancing its industry-leading position [2] - In the renewable energy sector, the company has maintained its competitive edge in the domestic market and is expanding its international presence [3] - The company is actively developing new products in the communication network sector, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 48.055 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.838 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 8.94% year-on-year [1][11] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.37%, and a net profit of 628 million yuan, a decrease of 1.33% [1] Order Backlog and Market Position - As of April 23, 2025, the company has a robust order backlog of approximately 31.2 billion yuan, with significant contributions from the marine and power grid construction sectors [2] - The marine sector has seen breakthroughs in technology and project delivery capabilities, reinforcing the company's leading position in the industry [2] Renewable Energy and Communication Networks - The company has successfully secured major photovoltaic projects and is expanding its footprint in the energy storage market, ranking eighth globally in terms of shipment volume [3] - In the communication network sector, the company is focusing on the development of hollow-core fibers and high-speed copper cables to meet the rising demand for AI computing [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.519 billion yuan, 4.132 billion yuan, and 4.641 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13x for 2025 [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is a leading brand in the snack food sector, with a clear growth path for its major products. Fish products provide a stable foundation, while quail eggs are expected to create a second growth curve. Potential categories like tofu and konjac have significant growth opportunities, and the expansion into new channels in 2025 is anticipated to drive revenue and profit beyond expectations [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Major Product Growth - The company's major product, deep-sea fish, has shown double-digit growth in Q1 2025 despite a high base from the previous year. The company expects rapid growth in fish products due to channel deepening and breakthroughs in new high-potential channels [2] - Quail eggs are positioned as the second growth curve, with ongoing product upgrades such as selenium-enriched and soft-boiled quail eggs. The company aims to enhance profitability and gross margin through differentiated products and brand innovation [2] - Potential products like tofu and konjac are in a rapid cultivation phase, with innovative offerings like short-shelf-life tofu and new flavors of konjac sauce expected to drive significant growth [2] New Channel Expansion - The company has a clear omnichannel strategy, with successful offline channel expansion and stable growth in distribution channels. High-potential channels like membership-based supermarkets are progressing well, and the snack wholesale channel is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2025 [3] - Although online channels saw a decline in Q1 2025, they are entering a recovery phase, with expectations for future growth. The entry into new high-potential channels is expected to further enhance profitability [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The market anticipates the company will achieve mid-double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with profit growth lagging behind revenue due to adjustments in online channels and competition in the quail egg sector. However, the company is expected to exceed market expectations for revenue and slightly improve net profit margins [4] - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 28.9 billion, 34.34 billion, and 41.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.82%, 18.83%, and 19.51% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 3.43 billion, 4.18 billion, and 5.15 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.85%, 21.82%, and 23.18% respectively [11]