证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 05 月 24 日 刚需+出海+历史低位，多重因素凸显制药价值 ——华宝中证制药 ETF 投资价值分析 随着保健意识的提升及国内人口老龄化趋势的发展，药品作为人们生活中的刚 性需求，其市场需求量日益增长。从供给端来看，原研药专利集中到期，创新 药频获出海订单，中药受政策大力扶持，各细分领域药企均迎来发展机遇。时 逢相关标的位于历史的价格低位，药品制造业显示出一定的投资机会。华宝中 证制药 ETF（认购代码：562053.OF）通过紧密跟踪中证制药指数，一键式配 置制药行业优质上市企业，值得投资者关注。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn ❑ 风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金产品过往业绩并不预示其未来表 现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议，新发基金无历史业绩可参考。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 专题报告 ❑ 在新兴市场经济快速发展和各国医疗保障制度的逐渐完整之下，全球医药 市场规模仍旧维持着稳定增长态势。而据统计，我国的人均药品用量仍远 低于世界发达国家水平，国内药品用量的需求增长仍然具有较大的空间。 ❑ 在供给端，各细 ...

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 公募新规对市场影响几何？ 公募新规量化观察系列之一 2025 年 5 月 7 日，《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》发布，针对公募基金 行业核心痛点，从基金运营、业绩考核、行业发展、强监管和风险防控四个方 面进行了系统性完善。本文主要研究公募新规对市场、行业及个股可能带来的 影响。核心内容如下： 风险提示：本报告结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发 生变化时模型存在失效的风险；本报告所提及个股或基金仅表示与相关主题有一定 关联性，不构成任何投资建议。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@cmschina.com.cn 杨航 S1090523010004 yanghang4@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 05 月 23 日 ❑ 沪深 300 和中证 800 是主动权益型基金基准指数中应用最多的两个指数。 其中，以沪深 300 为最大权重指数的基金有 1534 只，对应总规模为 13118.75 亿元，规模占比为 4 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 05 月 23 日 关于美国财政：市场在定价什么？ ❑ 一、美国新版减税法案进展到哪一步？ ❑ 4 月 11 日两院共同预算决议通过后，众议院授权委员会已经在 5 月 12 日 公布草案。5 月 12 日-5 月 21 日本轮协调法案仅在众议院授权委员会内部 便经历 3 次修改过程后提交至参议院，而众议院目前提交的 3.3 万亿美元 净赤字和参议院 5.8 万亿美元净赤字仍有较大差距，两院或仍有多轮磋商 博弈过程，预计未来数周才能开启投票过程。历史上从发起协调指引的国 会预算决议到制定最终协调法案的平均时间长度为 148 天，范围从 27 天 到 384 天不等。本轮协调法案发起协调指引的时间是 2 月 21 日，若按历 史平均来看约在 7 月下旬通过，若按贝森特的说法，财政部希望在 7 月 4 日前完成减税的立法程序，那么 7 月将是重要的时间节点。 ❑ 二、参众两院分歧有多大？ ❑ 参众两院分歧主要有三点：1）参议院设定了更高的增赤和债限规模；2） 参议院减税更为激进；3）参议院国防增赤更多、几无减赤，众议院国防 增赤更少，减赤近 2 万亿美元。最终赤字控制的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2,100.00 CNY, while the current stock price is 1,586.0 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - Guizhou Moutai is positioned as a national brand capable of navigating through economic cycles, emphasizing its commitment to quality and cultural values [6]. - The company has set a sustainable growth target of 9% for 2025, focusing on three major transformations: customer base expansion, innovative product offerings, and channel optimization [6][7]. - The report highlights the company's strong historical performance in overcoming past crises and its confidence in future growth despite current industry pressures [6][7]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 150,560 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. This is expected to grow to 190,109 million CNY by 2025, reflecting a 9% growth rate [8][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 74,734 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 93,944 million CNY by 2025, with a similar growth rate of 9% [8][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are estimated to be 59.49 CNY for 2023, rising to 74.78 CNY in 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21.2 for 2025 [8][14]. Market Position and Strategy - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on international expansion and targeting younger demographics to enhance brand vitality and innovation [6]. - The company is implementing a multi-channel strategy to optimize distribution and reach a broader consumer base [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining product quality and cultural integrity as key drivers for the brand's long-term success [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue of 5.4 billion yuan represents a 2.2% year-on-year increase, aligning with the guidance of 0%-4% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA and net profit for Q1 2025 were 1.5 billion yuan and 780 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 5.3% and 0.5% respectively [7] - The domestic hotel segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of 1.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.7% increase year-on-year [7] - The company has a robust membership system and an attractive investment return model, which is expected to attract more franchisees and accelerate store expansion [7] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 21.882 billion yuan for 2023, with a projected growth of 9% in 2024 and 5% in 2025 [3] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at 3.926 billion yuan, representing a 29% increase compared to 2024 [3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 33.2% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The total number of domestic hotels reached 11,564, marking a 19.4% increase, with a net addition of 539 hotels in Q1 2025 [7] Market Position - The company’s current stock price is 28.7 HKD, with a market capitalization of 174.1 billion HKD [4] - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 29.0% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 82.7% [4] - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 1%-5% in Q2 2025, with domestic hotel revenue projected to grow by 3%-7% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the gaming sector, specifically recommending the leading company, Kaiying Network [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI is significantly aiding overseas tech companies in reducing costs and improving efficiency, which is reflected in the performance of companies like Spotify and Shopify [1]. - The gaming sector is experiencing a temporary adjustment, but the report argues that this is an overreaction, citing strong quarterly results from major players like Tencent and Kaiying Network [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the robust growth in revenue and profit margins for Kaiying Network, with a projected revenue increase of 221.48% in overseas markets for 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry saw a decline of 0.67% last week, ranking 26th among all sectors, while it has increased by 3.91% year-to-date, ranking 6th overall [1][10]. - The report notes that the gaming sector has shown resilience, with Tencent's gaming business growing over 20% in the first quarter [1][2]. Financial Data - Kaiying Network's net profit margin has improved from 24.28% in 2021 to 38.30% in Q1 2025, attributed to reduced management and R&D costs [2]. - The company has a rich pipeline of products, with several games set to launch in 2025, including titles based on popular IPs [2]. AI Integration - The report discusses the introduction of Kaiying Network's self-developed AI model, which has automated various aspects of game development, significantly reducing production time and costs [2]. Industry Size - The report indicates that there are 161 companies in the media sector, with a total market capitalization of 1684.8 billion [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry experienced steady growth in fund utilization, with a net increase of over 1.6 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, bringing the total fund utilization balance to 34.93 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the beginning of the year [5][6]. - The allocation of funds has shifted, with bonds and stocks reaching their highest proportions in recent years, highlighting a more pronounced "barbell" structure in investment strategy [6]. - The report notes a significant increase in equity investments, with insurance companies actively increasing their positions in the transportation sector and continuing to engage in shareholding activities primarily in the banking and public utility sectors [6][15]. Summary by Sections Fund Utilization - As of Q1 2025, the balance of funds utilized by insurance companies was 34.93 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 31.38 trillion yuan (89.8% of the total) and property insurance companies holding 2.27 trillion yuan (6.7% of the total) [5][6]. - The bond allocation reached 16.97 trillion yuan, accounting for 50.4% of total investments, the highest level in recent years, driven by a strategic increase in long-term bond investments [6]. - The stock balance increased to 2.82 trillion yuan, representing 8.4% of total investments, also the highest level in recent years, with a net increase of 389.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [6]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of long-duration bonds and high-dividend stocks as key components for insurance companies' revenue stability [6]. - The investment strategy is diversifying, with a cautious increase in equity allocation expected, alongside a richer variety of investment products [6]. Sector Focus - The top sectors for insurance equity investments include banking (45.8%), transportation (10.8%), real estate (7.4%), telecommunications (6.9%), and public utilities (6.1%) [10][11]. - The report highlights a trend of insurance companies increasing their stakes in high-dividend stocks, which provide stable returns and lower risk, aligning with long-term strategic investment goals [6][15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks such as China Taiping and China Ping An, while suggesting to pay attention to New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life Insurance for their long-term investment value [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer electronics sector, suggesting a focus on AI edge applications and automotive intelligence as key investment themes [1]. Core Insights - Recent easing of tariff pressures allows for a focus on innovation in AI and undervalued quality companies within the consumer electronics sector [1]. - Apple is expected to minimize tariff impacts through inventory and supply chain optimization, with a significant portion of production now in India and Vietnam [2][21]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the smartphone, PC, and wearable segments driven by AI innovations and government subsidies [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Terminal Trends and Innovation Tracking - Smartphone shipments in Q1 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with a notable rise in China due to government subsidies [2]. - PC shipments grew by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1, driven by pre-emptive shipping to counter tariffs and AI innovations [3]. - Wearable devices, particularly AI glasses, saw a significant increase in shipments, with a 216% year-on-year growth in Q1 [4]. Industry Chain Tracking - The easing of tariff negotiations is seen as a turning point for the industry, with a focus on AI edge and cloud-side innovations [12]. - Domestic SoC companies reported high growth in Q1, with major international firms accelerating their AI application layouts [13]. - The battery sector is entering a seasonal slowdown, but long-term trends indicate innovation driven by AI applications [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can benefit from Apple's global layout and cost efficiency, particularly in the supply chain [21]. - For the Android chain, the impact of tariffs is minimal, and there are opportunities for growth through AI innovations and subsidy policies [22]. - The automotive sector is highlighted for its rapid development in smart driving technologies, with significant opportunities in the supply chain [24]. - The XR segment is expected to see long-term growth, particularly in AR applications, with a focus on companies involved in Apple's Vision Pro and related products [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the beryllium industry [2]. Core Insights - The global beryllium resource distribution is highly concentrated, with the United States, Brazil, and China being the primary producers, accounting for 49%, 22%, and 21% of global production respectively [6][19]. - Beryllium is identified as a key metal for controlled nuclear fusion, with significant applications in various fields including optics, semiconductors, aerospace, nuclear industry, military, and household appliances [6][11]. - The beryllium market is expected to grow due to increasing demand in industrial components and automotive electronics, with global beryllium production projected to rise from 210 tons in 2017 to 364 tons by 2024 [19][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Beryllium Resource Distribution - Beryllium resources are primarily located in the United States, Canada, and Brazil, with the U.S. holding approximately 60% of the known global resources [16][19]. - China's beryllium resources are abundant but of lower quality, leading to challenges in industrial utilization [16][19]. 2. Applications and Strategic Value of Beryllium - Beryllium is utilized in high-performance applications due to its high stiffness, excellent thermal conductivity, and dimensional stability, making it crucial in defense, aerospace, and energy sectors [25][27]. - The beryllium supply chain includes raw material extraction, intermediate product manufacturing, and high-value end products such as beryllium copper alloys, beryllium aluminum alloys, and beryllium oxide ceramics [25][26]. 3. Key Companies in the Beryllium Industry - Materion Corporation is the largest beryllium supplier globally, holding a 70% market share, and provides a range of high-performance beryllium products for various industries [43][44]. - NGK Insulators, Ltd. is the second-largest producer of beryllium copper alloys, sourcing beryllium oxide from Materion and serving multiple sectors including aerospace and electronics [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a rapid recovery in downstream demand, with three major growth curves poised for explosive growth [5]. - The company reported a revenue of 331 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.94 million yuan, up 15.28% year-on-year [5]. - The company has a strategic focus on special optical devices, new materials, and equipment, aiming to strengthen its market position in both military and civilian sectors [5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 331 million yuan, with a breakdown showing optical ring devices generating 124 million yuan (up 69.07% year-on-year) and new materials contributing 24.06 million yuan (up 15.60% year-on-year) [5]. - The gross profit margin for optical ring devices remained stable, while the overall gross margin decreased by 7.57 percentage points to 44.62% due to price adjustments in military products and changes in product mix [5]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 84 million, 122 million, and 150 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47.4, 32.5, and 26.5 [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its industrial synergy through the acquisition of "Shengyisheng," which will improve its production capabilities in optical gyroscope photon chip devices and expand its market reach [5]. - The strategic layout includes a focus on three growth curves: enhancing sensor solutions, developing energy transmission solutions, and advancing thermal management and next-generation optical communication [5]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 32.48 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 3.1 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 1.7% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 21.4% [2].