证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 24 日 凯莱英（002821.SZ） 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 7825 | 5805 | 6617 | 7627 | 8859 | | 同比增长 | -24% | -26% | 14% | 15% | 16% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2571 | 1079 | 1237 | 1455 | 1810 | | 同比增长 | -31% | -58% | 15% | 18% | 24% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2269 | 949 | 1078 | 1265 | 1569 | | 同比增长 | -31% | -58% | 14% | 17% | 24% | | 每股收益(元) | 6.29 | 2.63 | 2.99 | 3.51 | 4.35 | | PE | 10.7 | 25.5 | 22.4 | 19.1 | 15.4 | | PB | 1.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 has negatively impacted the overall annual results, but the upcoming production at the Nantong factory is expected to enhance production and sales significantly [7] - The company is facing a decline in revenue due to weak downstream demand, with a projected revenue of 6.927 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The Nantong project, with a total investment of 2.126 billion yuan and an expected production capacity of 2.1 million tons, is anticipated to commence operations in the first half of 2025, potentially reducing logistics costs significantly [7] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to recover to 11.056 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 60% increase year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 4.59 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.0, 5.0, and 4.2 for the years 2025 to 2027 [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 6.5% in 2024 to 10.3% by 2027 [19] - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 67.1% in 2024 to 56.9% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [19] Stock Performance - The current stock price is 7.9 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4 billion yuan [4] - The stock has shown a relative performance of -17% over the past month and +13% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the media and internet industry, specifically recommending leading companies in various segments such as Shenzhou Taiyue, Southern Media, and Tencent Holdings [1][3]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown resilience with a 1.73% increase in the past week, ranking 7th among all sectors. Year-to-date, the media sector has increased by 0.16% [7][10]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the film industry, particularly due to the success of "Nezha 2," which is expected to drive growth in the cinema sector. Hengdian Film's Q1 report exceeded market expectations, with a 50.76% increase in box office revenue [7][17]. - The gaming sector is also viewed positively, benefiting from valuation, performance growth, and policy support, particularly in relation to AI development [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The media sector index rose by 1.73% from April 14 to April 20, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 0.59% [10]. - Individual stock performance showed significant gains for companies like Ciwen Media (14.58%) and Huawen Group (13.18%), while companies like Beijing Culture saw declines of up to 9.48% [12][13]. Film Industry Data - The top films for the week included "Xiangyang·Hua" and "Nezha: The Devil's Child," with weekly box office revenues of 47.21 million and 41.01 million respectively [18]. - The overall box office for the Chinese film market reached 24.39 billion, reflecting a 49.10% year-on-year increase [7][17]. Television and Streaming Insights - The top-rated TV dramas included "Chengjia" on Hunan TV with a rating of 2.331% and "Zhangxin" on Zhejiang TV with a rating of 2.095% [21][22]. - Online dramas such as "My Second Half" and "Manhao's Life" led in streaming indices, indicating strong viewer engagement [23][24]. Gaming Sector Highlights - Tencent's "Honor of Kings" topped the iOS sales chart, with six of its games in the top ten [30]. - The gaming industry continues to thrive, with significant contributions from mobile gaming and emerging titles [30][32]. Publishing Sector Overview - The report notes that the publishing industry remains stable, with companies like Zhongyuan Media increasing dividends and reporting high growth in Q1 [7][8]. - Best-selling books in March included "Nezha: The Three Realms" and "To Live (2021 Edition)," indicating strong consumer interest in both fiction and non-fiction categories [33][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - Tesla's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with Non-GAAP net profit at $930 million, reflecting a significant decline of 39.2% year-on-year and 55.7% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - Revenue for Q1 2025 was reported at $19.34 billion, down 9.2% year-on-year and 24.8% quarter-on-quarter, which was 2.6% lower than market expectations [3]. - The automotive business revenue was $13.97 billion, showing a decline of 19.6% year-on-year and 29.5% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to decreased deliveries and average selling price (ASP) [3]. - The gross margin was reported at 16.3%, slightly above market expectations, while the automotive sales gross margin was 11.3%, reflecting a decrease [3][4]. - Tesla delivered 336,700 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a decline of 13% year-on-year and 32.1% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Non-GAAP net profit was $930 million, significantly below market expectations of $1.29 billion [3]. - GAAP net profit was $410 million, down 70.6% year-on-year and 80.8% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Free cash flow remained positive at $660 million, benefiting from a 46% reduction in capital expenditures [4]. Market Reaction - The stock price increased post-earnings call, indicating market tolerance for the disappointing results and reflecting pre-emptive pricing in of Elon Musk's return [5][6]. - The report suggests that the market is optimistic about future developments, particularly the upcoming robotaxi trials and Musk's increased involvement [5]. Future Outlook - The report highlights a potential shift towards a more optimistic scenario, with key validation points being April sales figures and the June robotaxi trial [5]. - The report notes that the North American model's localization rate for parts has reached 85%, providing a competitive advantage over other manufacturers [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has shown rapid revenue and profit growth, driven by strong demand for 400G and 800G optical modules, with 2024 revenue reaching 23.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.64%, and a net profit of 5.171 billion yuan, up 137.93% [1][6] - The gross margin has been improving, reaching 33.81% in 2024 and 36.70% in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of high-end products and cost reductions [6][7] - The company is expected to see significant growth in 800G product shipments in 2025, with 1.6T products gradually ramping up in Q2 and Q3 [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 23.862 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.171 billion yuan, with Q1 2025 revenue at 6.674 billion yuan and net profit at 1.583 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 37.82% [1][6] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 3.165 billion yuan, a 66.81% increase year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 2.164 billion yuan, up 232.74% [6][7] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.277 billion yuan, 10.134 billion yuan, and 11.814 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.1, 9.1, and 7.8 [6][7] Market Outlook - The domestic market is expected to see increased orders and revenue in 2025, with significant growth in 400G optical module demand and accelerated adoption of 800G modules by customers [2][6] - The overseas market also showed strong performance, with 2024 overseas revenue reaching 20.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.32% [2][6] - Supply-side constraints in optical chips are anticipated to ease as overseas manufacturers expand capacity, and the company plans to increase its silicon photonic module production in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [2][6]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 24 日 蒙娜丽莎（002918.SZ） 行业竞争压力仍存，经销渠道持续提升 中游制造/建材 公司 2024 年实现营业总收入 46.31 亿元，同比下降 21.79%；归母净利润 1.25 亿元，同比下降 53.06%；扣非后归母净利润 1.03 亿元，同比下滑 57.53%；基 本 EPS 为 0.31 元/股，同比减少 51.56%；加权平均 ROE 为 3.64%，同比下降 4.31pct。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：8.74 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 415 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 219 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1.9 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 8.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.7 | | 资产负债率 | 52.6% | | 主要股东 | 萧华 | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -8 0 -8 相对表现 -5 5 -16 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Apr/24 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company's revenue in Q4 increased by 41.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders turned from loss to profit, indicating a recovery in the vinegar main business [5][6] - The new chairman emphasizes the development of the vinegar main business, aiming to enhance growth capabilities and boost internal morale [6] - The company is expected to improve its performance in 2025, driven by ongoing reforms and a focus on core business growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.25%, and a net profit of 127 million yuan, up 46.5% year-on-year [5][7] - In Q4, the company reported revenue of 665 million yuan, a 41.9% increase year-on-year, primarily due to a rebound in vinegar sales [5][6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 34.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost reductions and efficiency improvements in the supply chain [5][7] Business Segment Analysis - The vinegar segment's revenue for 2024 was 1.266 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, with a Q4 revenue increase of 9.4% [5][6] - The overall trend in the seasoning business showed an increase in volume but a decrease in price, primarily due to last year's subdued demand [5][6] - The company plans to focus on enhancing brand influence and expanding product offerings, particularly in the vinegar and health product categories [6] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its reform efforts and improve internal morale, with expectations for better overall performance in 2025 and beyond [6][7] - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 0.17 yuan and 0.19 yuan, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company continues to enhance its investment in core technologies and innovation in the field of edge intelligence, with expectations of improved operational performance in the second half of 2024 and further advantages in 2025 [1][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.385 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.72%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.60% to 407 million yuan [7][14]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product and service structure, increasing the proportion of high-value-added businesses, and securing major customer demands through strategic partnerships [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total market capitalization of the company is 24.5 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 19.6 billion yuan [4]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 5.929 billion yuan, 6.714 billion yuan, and 7.862 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 413 million yuan, 524 million yuan, and 676 million yuan [8][14]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 59.3, 46.7, and 36.2, respectively [8][15]. Business Performance - The company’s revenue from the smart automotive sector was 2.416 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.42%, while the smart software and IoT sectors saw revenues of 1.423 billion yuan and 1.545 billion yuan, respectively [7]. - The gross margin for the company was 34.29%, a decrease of 2.66 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to a significant decline in the gross margin of smart software [7][15]. - The company has established R&D centers in 16 countries or regions globally, with overseas revenue reaching 1.958 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.87% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the securities and insurance sectors, indicating a positive outlook despite potential challenges from trade friction and economic pressures [5][6]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector's overall holdings have decreased, with brokerage and insurance holdings at 0.54% and 0.91% respectively, reflecting a decline of 0.10 percentage points and 0.15 percentage points [1][5]. - The total market value of the industry is reported at 554.33 billion, with a circulating market value of 529.29 billion, representing 6.6% and 6.9% of the total market respectively [2]. - The report highlights a shift in investment style towards growth sectors, with significant outflows from high-dividend defensive sectors [16][19]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Market Size - As of Q1 2025, the total fund net value is 31.6 trillion, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2% [10]. - The non-monetary fund size is 18.3 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2% [10][11]. Non-Bank Sector Holdings Analysis Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's holdings have decreased to 0.54%, significantly below the benchmark of 4.54%, primarily due to a clear focus on technology-driven growth sectors [20][21]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds reached 1.75 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 71% [19]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's holdings are at 0.91%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a significant gap from the benchmark of 1.99% [23]. - The report notes a contraction in the scale of new insurance products, with a year-on-year decline in original insurance premiums of 2.2% for January-February [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific brokerage firms such as CITIC Securities, China Galaxy, and Guotai Junan, as well as insurance companies like China Life and Ping An [6][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the gaming sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the National Press and Publication Administration approved 118 domestic game licenses and 9 imported game licenses, with a stable frequency of issuance, which is expected to boost market confidence in the gaming industry [5]. - The report highlights key games that received licenses, including titles from major companies such as Tencent, NetEase, and Giant Network, indicating a diverse and competitive gaming landscape [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of several companies, including Tencent's ongoing game operations, Kaiying Network's active share buybacks, and Giant Network's collaboration with Alibaba to embrace AI [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The gaming industry consists of 161 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,653.7 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,494.6 billion [3]. Key Company Financial Metrics - Kaiying Network (002517.SZ): Market Cap 34.6 billion, 2023 EPS 0.68, 2024 EPS 0.83, 2024 PE 19.6, PB 5.7, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [3]. - Giant Network (002558.SZ): Market Cap 26.6 billion, 2023 EPS 0.56, 2024 EPS 0.74, 2024 PE 18.4, PB 2.2, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [3]. - Yaoji Technology (002605.SZ): Market Cap 10.7 billion, 2023 EPS 1.36, 2024 EPS 1.44, 2024 PE 17.9, PB 3.2, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [3]. - Shenzhou Taiyue (300002.SZ): Market Cap 22.7 billion, 2023 EPS 0.45, 2024 EPS 0.73, 2024 PE 15.9, PB 3.3, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [3]. - G-bits (603444.SH): Market Cap 15.6 billion, 2023 EPS 15.62, 2024 EPS 13.12, 2024 PE 16.6, PB 3.2, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [3]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -6.7%, with a 6-month performance of 13.5% and a 12-month performance of 22.5% [4].