Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales in April has slightly narrowed, while the effects of expanded consumption policies continue to be evident [2][4][22] - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 161,845 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.7%, and the monthly growth rate for April was 5.1% [14][22] - The report highlights that essential consumption remains stable, with the year-on-year growth rate of grain and oil food retail sales increasing to 14.0% in April [18][22] Group 2 - The industrial robot and metal cutting machine production saw a three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate expand in April, indicating a positive trend in the automation equipment sector [2][4][22] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high or improving prosperity, including home appliances, traditional Chinese medicine, household goods, entertainment products, jewelry, and green electricity [2][4][23] - The report notes that the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increased by 25.3% year-on-year, driven by demand for value preservation amid rising gold prices [18][22][23] Group 3 - In the information technology sector, the DDR4 DRAM memory prices have risen, while smartphone production has seen a three-month rolling year-on-year decline [4][7][22] - The semiconductor industry shows mixed signals, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declining while the Taiwanese semiconductor industry index increased [4][7][22] - The report indicates that the average daily power generation of key power plants has increased year-on-year over the past 12 weeks, reflecting growth in the public utility sector [4][7][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The policy dividend drives the rapid expansion of the science - innovation bond market. The new policy has three major focuses, which will promote the diversification of bond - issuing entities and the optimization of the bond structure [2]. - The science - innovation bond market has investment value. Most science - innovation bonds have a small premium compared to ordinary credit bonds, and high - rating science - innovation bonds are highly recognized by the market. In the future, the market liquidity of science - innovation bonds is expected to improve, and the variety premium may be compressed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Science - innovation Bond Regulatory Policy History - **From "Double - innovation Bonds" to Science - innovation Bonds**: The prototype of science - innovation bonds can be traced back to the "double - innovation bonds" in 2015. After multiple stages of development, in 2022, a dual - market pattern of "exchange science - innovation bonds + inter - bank science - innovation notes" was formed, and in 2025, the policy support was further strengthened [8][9][10]. - **Three Key Points of the New Science - innovation Bond Policy**: The new policy broadens the issuing entities and the scope of use of raised funds, encourages the creation of science - innovation bond index products to guide investment institutions to increase their allocation, and improves the risk - sharing mechanism. There are also supporting policies such as fee reduction and a "green channel" for review [12][13][14]. 3.2 Science - innovation Bond Issuance Characteristics and Future Outlook - **Market Expansion**: Since 2021, the cumulative issuance of science - innovation corporate bonds and science - innovation notes has reached 2.7 trillion yuan. After the new policy, the issuance of science - innovation bonds has increased significantly. Nearly 500 market institutions plan to issue science - innovation bonds with a cumulative scale of over 300 billion yuan [16]. - **Diversification of Issuing Entities**: The issuing entities of science - innovation bonds are mainly central and local state - owned enterprises, and the new policy may increase the proportion of financial institutions [18]. - **Policy Support for Low - cost and Long - term Bonds**: The weighted average issuance term of science - innovation bonds has increased in recent years. Although currently, most issued science - innovation bonds are still 3 - year bonds, policy guidance may encourage the issuance of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds [26]. - **Improvement of Risk - sharing Mechanisms**: The new policy aims to reduce the default loss risk of science - innovation bonds through diversified credit enhancement measures. Currently, most issued science - innovation bonds are unsecured, but in the future, diversified credit enhancement measures may be continuously implemented [29]. 3.3 Secondary Market Performance and Investment Analysis of Science - innovation Bonds - **Yield Performance**: Most science - innovation bonds have a small premium compared to ordinary credit bonds. High - rating science - innovation bonds are more recognized by the market, with a smaller spread compared to general credit bonds. The yield of science - innovation bonds issued by the National Development Bank is lower than that of the same - term national development bonds [33]. - **Liquidity Performance**: After the new policy, the turnover rate of newly issued science - innovation bonds is higher than that of science - innovation notes and science - innovation corporate bonds. The main buyers in the first week of issuance are joint - stock banks, public funds, and other institutions. In the future, the market liquidity of science - innovation bonds is expected to improve [39][44]. - **Investment Suggestions**: It is recommended to actively pay attention to the investment opportunities of medium - and short - duration science - innovation bonds with an implicit rating of AA + or above. For medium - and low - rating science - innovation bonds with credit enhancement measures, appropriate exploration can also be carried out [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 13.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 4.19 billion yuan, up 3.3%, both slightly exceeding market expectations. Domestic leisure travel demand has shown steady improvement, while outbound and international business continues to grow significantly, supported by optimized overseas marketing expenses [1][8]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to the vast growth potential in overseas markets, with expectations of continued performance improvement as international operations mature and profitability enhances [1][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 44.51 billion yuan - 2024: 53.29 billion yuan (+20%) - 2025E: 61.81 billion yuan (+16%) - 2026E: 70.80 billion yuan (+15%) - 2027E: 80.91 billion yuan (+14%) [3][11]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.92 billion yuan in 2023, reaching 23.99 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13% [3][11]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 19.11 yuan in 2023 to 37.56 yuan in 2027 [3][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.2 in 2023 to 12.3 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [3][12]. Business Performance - The company’s revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 includes: - Accommodation bookings: 5.54 billion yuan (+23.2%) - Transportation ticketing: 5.42 billion yuan (+8.4%) - Travel vacation: 0.95 billion yuan (+7.2%) - Business travel management: 0.57 billion yuan (+12.1%) - Other businesses: 1.37 billion yuan (+33.0%) [8]. - The overall gross margin for the reporting period was 80.4%, slightly down by 0.8 percentage points, while the operating profit margin (OPM) was 29.2%, exceeding the expected 27.5% [8]. Market Outlook - The company’s outbound and international business continues to show high growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels, and international OTA platform bookings increasing by over 60% year-on-year [8]. - The report anticipates a 15%-20% growth in outbound business for 2025, driven by high-margin outbound operations [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the easing of tariff policies, which may enhance profitability in the pulp shipping market [2]. - The company's performance in 2024 is projected to be at the upper limit of previous forecasts, with a significant increase in gross profit driven by rising shipping rates and increased automotive transport volumes [2][3]. - The company anticipates steady growth in its mechanical equipment and automotive transportation segments, supported by favorable trade relations [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 1.53 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 44% [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit was 350 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit for 2024 is expected to reach 3.66 billion yuan, a 73% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.8%, up by 4.2 percentage points [2][3]. Segment Performance Summary - The multi-purpose and heavy-lift vessels generated a combined gross profit of 1.37 billion yuan in 2024, a 91% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand in advanced manufacturing exports [2]. - The gross profit from pulp and automotive vessels reached 1.26 billion yuan, a 255% increase year-on-year, with automotive shipments increasing by 46% [2]. - The semi-submersible vessels reported a gross profit of 490 million yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, primarily due to delayed contracts [2]. Future Profitability Outlook - The company expects profits of 1.88 billion yuan, 2.28 billion yuan, and 2.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 22%, and 9% [2][3]. - The estimated PE ratio for 2025 is projected to be 9.3x, indicating favorable growth potential [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the beauty and personal care industry, highlighting the continued growth of leading domestic brands [2]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a divergence in performance, with leading domestic brands achieving good growth due to their competitive pricing, differentiated products, and effective online operations [1][10]. - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is expected to further catalyze growth for domestic brands, particularly in the cosmetics sector [1][6]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics - In 2024 and Q1 2025, leading domestic brands continued to show strong growth, with significant revenue increases reported: - Molybdenum Biological: +33% revenue, +32% net profit - Giant Biological: +57% revenue, +42% net profit - Upper Beauty: +62% revenue, +69% net profit [11][13]. - The overall performance of the cosmetics sector is characterized by a mix of growth and decline among various companies, with some like Proya showing resilience in profit despite revenue slowdowns [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on brands with strong single-product strategies and innovative ingredients, such as Giant Biological and Molybdenum Biological, as well as those with strong brand positioning like Mao Geping [1][6]. Personal Care - The personal care segment has seen robust performance from leading domestic brands, with notable revenue growth in Q1 2025: - Baiya: +30% - Stable Medical: +36% - Hao Yue Care: +42% [6][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product upgrades and channel expansion for these brands, which have outperformed OEM companies [1][6]. - The ongoing trend of online expansion and the shift towards mid-to-high-end branding remains strong, with companies like Baiya and Stable Medical showing promising developments [6][12]. Market Trends - The overall market for cosmetics in early 2025 showed a slight increase in retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% in the first four months [23]. - Online platforms like Tmall and Douyin have seen varying performance, with Douyin showing higher growth rates in certain categories compared to Tmall [26][29]. Key Brand Performance - Key brands have demonstrated significant growth in both Tmall and Douyin platforms, with notable increases in GMV for brands like Mao Geping and Kefu Mei [33]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, with domestic brands increasingly capturing market share from international brands due to their pricing and innovative marketing strategies [1][6].

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 5 月 20 日 群策群力，锚定绝对收益目标 天弘基金固收+基金分析 天弘基金旗下固收+业务追求绝对收益，以回撤作为产品定位目标，并以此设定资 产配置中枢。公司实行团队制管理，在资产配置、行业配置和个股选择等关键环节 倾向群策群力。稳健型和积极型固收+基金（详细划分标准参考全文）成立以来整 体实现了较好的收益风险性价比，大部分年份实现了平均正收益。本报告将针对天 弘基金固收+业务产品布局、业绩表现、团队建设、投资风格等方面展开分析。 ❑ 风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，亦不构 成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 高艺 S1090524020001 gaoyi2@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 天弘含权债基发展概况：天弘基金布局含权债基时间较早，产品线在 2021 年 迎来规模大发展，主要为二级债基贡献。2021 年之前主要被机构持有，之后 个人增持相对较多，目前机构与个人持有份额各半。 ❑ 天弘固收+基金布局情况：天弘 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The banking sector has consistently outperformed the market in most years since the end of 2008, with a cumulative return significantly higher than that of the broader market indices [6][10]. - The report highlights that the banking sector benefits from a shift in institutional investment styles, favoring long-term performance and actual profitability, which is expected to lead to a valuation recovery for the sector [6][10]. - High-profit growth banks have shown exceptional performance, with a cumulative increase of 2322% and an annualized return of 21.5% since the end of 2008, indicating the potential for higher returns through selective investment within the banking sector [6][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The banking sector comprises 41 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 9875 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 9784.5 billion [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the banking sector over different time frames is as follows: 1 month: 4.7%, 6 months: 11.8%, and 12 months: 24.3% [5]. - The banking index has outperformed the market indices, with the A-share banking index showing a cumulative increase of 404% and an annualized return of 10.4% since 2018 [6][10]. Historical Returns - From 2008 to the present, the banking sector has outperformed the CSI 300 Total Return Index in 10 out of 17 years, demonstrating a high success rate for investments in this sector [6][10]. - The report provides detailed cumulative return data, showing that the banking sector's returns have generally exceeded those of the broader market indices in most years since 2008 [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the insurance industry [2][51][58] Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing market risk appetite and the new public fund regulations, which will enhance performance benchmarks [1][6][51] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a comprehensive positive growth in new business value (NBV) for life insurance, with significant improvements in the liability structure [51][54] - The property and casualty (P&C) insurance sector experienced steady premium growth and a notable improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) [51][54] - Investment performance varied among companies due to differing strategies, with a general increase in asset scale and a reduction in real estate exposure [51][54] Summary by Sections 1. Life Insurance Overview - The new business value (NBV) for listed insurance companies continued to grow, with notable increases: New China Life +67.9%, China Pacific Insurance +39.0%, China Ping An +34.9%, and China Life +4.8% [10][11] - The individual insurance channel transformation is deepening, with stable agent numbers and increasing productivity [13][16] - The efficiency of the bancassurance channel has significantly improved, supporting overall performance [16][17] 2. Property and Casualty Insurance Overview - The premium income growth for the "old three" P&C insurers was as follows: China Pacific Insurance +3.7%, Ping An Insurance +7.7%, and Taiping Insurance +1.0% [21][24] - The combined operating ratio (COR) for the "old three" insurers improved, with China Pacific at 94.5%, Ping An at 96.6%, and Taiping at 97.4% [27][30] 3. Investment Performance - The total investment assets of listed insurers showed steady growth, with China Life at 68,191.73 billion, Ping An at 59,200 billion, and China Pacific at 28,102.08 billion [31][36] - The annualized net investment yield for the first quarter was: Ping An 3.6%, China Pacific 3.2%, and China Life 2.6% [36][38] - The annualized total investment yield varied significantly, with New China Life at 5.7%, China Pacific at 4.0%, and China Life at 2.8% [38][42] 4. Profit and Net Asset Differentiation - The net profit growth rates for the first quarter were: China Re +43.4%, China Life +39.5%, New China Life +19.0%, China Pacific -18.1%, and Ping An -26.4% [45][50] - The net asset growth rates at the end of the first quarter were: China Life +4.5%, China Re +3.9%, Ping An +1.2%, China Pacific -9.5%, and New China Life -17.0% [50][53] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a positive outlook for the insurance sector, with life insurance product transformation expected to yield positive results and P&C insurance leaders likely to maintain their advantages [51][54][55] - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the insurance sector due to supportive financial policies and improved market conditions [55][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to overcome operational bottlenecks and improve profitability, moving towards becoming a comprehensive supplier of contrast agents [1][7]. - The management efficiency has improved significantly under the current chairman, with revenue per employee increasing from 550,000 RMB in 2015 to 1,340,000 RMB in 2025 [7][19]. - The company is entering a phase of increased production capacity for iodine contrast agents, with capital expenditures (CAPEX) peak passed and utilization rates expected to rise [7][19]. - The domestic and international demand for contrast agents is expanding, with the company positioned as a key supplier in the iodine contrast agent market [7][27]. Financial Data and Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 0.7 billion RMB in 2025, 2.3 billion RMB in 2026, and 3.5 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 58, 18, and 11 [8][75]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.196 billion RMB in 2023 to 3.516 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% [8][85]. - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to recover from a loss of 0.054 billion RMB in 2024 to a profit of 0.277 billion RMB in 2026 [8][85]. Market Dynamics - The global market for contrast agents is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8%, with iodine contrast agent demand expected to double in the next decade [7][31]. - The supply of iodine is constrained, with major producers unable to significantly increase output, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand [22][27]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the iodine contrast agent market, with a comprehensive product range and established customer relationships [7][34]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has completed the construction of over 2,400 tons of raw material capacity, with approximately 1,800 tons certified under major quality systems [7][37]. - The company plans to utilize funds from a recent capital increase to expand production capacity for non-ionic CT contrast agents and iodine compounds [37][38]. Competitive Position - The company has a significant market share in iodine contrast agents, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and enhancing its competitive edge through strategic investments [7][34]. - The domestic procurement policies are expected to benefit the company, as it has a strong cost and scale advantage in raw materials [7][57]. International Expansion - The company is leveraging its international platform, IMAX, to enhance its global presence, with sales revenue from overseas operations increasing by 60% year-on-year [72]. - The company anticipates completing EU-GMP certification for its Shanghai facility in 2025, facilitating further international market penetration [72][75].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Vanke A, indicating a potential upside in the stock price despite current challenges [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was negatively impacted by a further decline in development gross margins, resulting in losses. However, the major shareholder continues to provide support to help the company manage its maturing debts [1][10]. - Vanke A is actively engaging in resource revitalization, achieving a total of 40.9 billion in cash recovery from 24 transactions in Q1 2025 [1][10]. - The company is facing significant downward pressure on sales, with projected EPS for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E at -1.35, -0.52, and -0.14 respectively, leading to corresponding PE ratios of -5.0, -13.2, and -49.2 [1][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 465.739 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to drop to 343.176 billion, reflecting a 26% decrease [1][11]. - The company reported a net profit of 12.163 billion in 2023, which is expected to turn into a loss of 49.478 billion in 2024, marking a 507% decline [1][11]. - The debt situation remains critical, with a total interest-bearing debt of 361.6 billion as of Q1 2025, and a net debt ratio of 86.7% [1][10]. Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, Vanke A's total sales amounted to 34.9 billion, a 40% decrease year-on-year, with a sales area of 2.54 million square meters, down 35% [1][10]. - The average sales price per square meter was 13,748, reflecting a 7% decline compared to the previous year [1][10]. Shareholder Support - The major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has been actively supporting the company in managing its debt obligations, providing loans totaling 70 billion to assist with debt repayments [1][10]. - The company successfully completed the repayment of 98.9 billion in public debts for Q1 2025, aided by the support from its major shareholder [1][10].