Investment Rating - The report provides a strong buy recommendation for several companies in the HVDC and power equipment sector, including Kehua Data, Kstar, Sungrow, and others [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the transition from traditional UPS systems to HVDC as a key trend for powering large data centers, driven by increasing ICT equipment power density and the limitations of existing UPS technology [1][9]. - It emphasizes the opportunity for Chinese companies to participate in the HVDC supply chain, particularly as overseas firms seek collaboration and outsourcing due to the rapid evolution of technology [1][43]. Industry Overview - The industry consists of 303 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 7,321.6 billion [4]. - The absolute performance of the power equipment and new energy sector has shown significant growth, with a 12-month increase of 45.3% [6]. Key Companies and Financial Metrics - Kehua Data (002335.SZ): Market Cap 35.6 billion, 2025 EPS 1.18, PE 58.3, Investment Rating: Strong Buy [3]. - Kstar (002518.SZ): Market Cap 24.4 billion, 2025 EPS 0.99, PE 42.2, Investment Rating: Strong Buy [3]. - Sungrow (300274.SZ): Market Cap 303.8 billion, 2025 EPS 6.59, PE 22.2, Investment Rating: Strong Buy [3]. - Other notable companies include Megmeet, Shenghong, and Hewei Electric, all receiving strong buy ratings [3][8]. HVDC Technology Adoption - The report discusses the shift towards HVDC systems as a more efficient alternative to UPS, particularly for large-scale data centers, highlighting the advantages of reduced energy conversion losses and lower copper usage [31][34]. - It notes that the efficiency of HVDC systems can be 2-3% higher than traditional UPS systems, with significant reductions in copper requirements [31][34]. Opportunities for Chinese Companies - The report identifies potential opportunities for Chinese firms to engage in OEM and direct supply for HVDC systems, as established overseas companies look to leverage local expertise and manufacturing capabilities [1][54]. - Companies like Kehua Data, Megmeet, and Kstar are positioned to benefit from this trend due to their existing technological capabilities and market presence [55][56]. Related Companies - The report highlights several companies involved in HVDC technology and related components, including: - Kehua Data: Leading in HVDC solutions for various data center applications [55]. - Megmeet: Established in server power supply and expanding into HVDC [56]. - Kstar: Strong background in power electronics and renewable energy solutions [57]. - Sungrow: Notable for its global leadership in power electronics and potential in HVDC [58]. - Hewei Electric: Focused on high-power electronics and emerging HVDC applications [61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming Q3 performance period and suggests a focus on valuation shifts in thriving sectors such as beverages, snacks, and pet products [13][14]. - It notes that the consumption sector has shown relative weakness, but low valuations may attract investment [13]. - The report emphasizes the stable growth of key companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye, with the latter's major shareholder completing a significant share buyback, reflecting confidence in the company [2][3]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Shanxi Fenjiu's "Glass Fen" series is experiencing steady growth, with plans to expand into markets with weaker consumption atmospheres [10]. - Wuliangye's major shareholder has completed a buyback of shares worth over 800 million yuan, increasing their stake to 55.1% [3]. - Chongqing Beer is expected to continue gaining market share in China, with a current market share of 9%, up from 6% in 2017 [11]. - Qiaqia Foods has seen improved sales in September, with expectations of a slight recovery in gross margin for Q3 [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on growth stocks in the snack sector, particularly Ximai Foods and Wei Long [14]. - It continues to recommend leading companies in the Hong Kong market such as Nongfu Spring and H&H International Holdings, while suggesting attention to Haitian Flavoring [14]. - In the new consumption sector, it highlights Zhongchong Co., Guibao Pet, and Bairun Co., with additional recommendations for Yuanfei Pet and Petty Co. [14]. - Traditional consumption is entering a configuration phase, with a focus on leading liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Guizhou Moutai [14].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 10 月 12 日 短期扰动不改看好观点 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20251012 1. 当前市场观察 ❑ 节后两日市场先涨后跌，成长风格明显回调，价值风格逆势上涨。具体来 看，万得全 A 指数下跌 0.36%，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 1000 分别下跌约 0.47%、0.51%、0.54%。国证价值上涨约 1.52%，而国证成长下跌约 1.41%，创业板指、科创 50 分别下跌约 3.85%、2.85%。 ❑ 择时观点上，10 月 10 日夜间中美摩擦再度升级，下周一权益市场大概率走 弱，不过从历史统计上来看，类似事件发生后 5 日内权益资产大概率会有所 修复，结合当前交易情绪仍偏强，我们认为短期扰动并不会改变前期对 A 股 市场震荡看好的观点。具体来看，我们统计了 2018 年以来包括中美贸易摩 擦、疫情、地缘冲突等事件发生当日、5 日、20 日内股、债、商、汇、权益 风格走势，可以发现利空事件发生当日 A 股、港股、美股均有较为明显的回 调（万得全 A 与恒生科技平均跌幅为 3.80%和 4.94%），顺周期的商品如铜 也会明显走低（平均跌幅 2. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, predicting a net profit of 850 million yuan for 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 4.02 billion, 480 million, and 460 million yuan respectively in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 15.6%, 12.4%, and 12.7% [1]. - The company is experiencing high growth in net orders, particularly in the AIDC sector, with significant contributions from new energy and power equipment [1][8]. - The SST solutions have been successfully applied in direct current distribution network projects, enhancing the company's capabilities in the AIDC field [8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.751 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.639 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% [3][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 627 million yuan in 2023 to 1.148 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 16% [3][20]. - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 29.9 in 2023 to 16.4 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [4][20]. Business Performance - The company reported a sales gross margin of 30.5% in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower margins in the power plant and industrial automation sectors [8][10]. - New energy generation and secondary equipment orders have shown strong performance, with new orders in the secondary equipment segment growing approximately 15% [8]. - The company has made significant strides in new business areas, including power electronics and AI applications in the power sector, which are beginning to contribute to revenue growth [8].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 关税问题再次升级，短期如有调整带来买入良机 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 由于特朗普关税威胁，美股大跌，工业金属价格本周大涨，周五大幅回落。本 周贵金属冲高之后横盘，周五冲高。4 月美国关税超预期，市场经历过压力测 试，预计本次对工业金属压力相对可控。我们认为以铜为代表的有色金属大叙 事不改，短期调整是加仓的机会。周四连发四文全方位升级稀土出口管制，看 好稀土的战略地位提升。我们持续看好有色资源股，调整买入。重点关注铜金 银铝钴稀土钨锑镍铀等品种。此外，关注科技成长相关新材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 236 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 6038.2 | 5.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 5646.1 | 5.9 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 7.4 | 59.4 | 62.2 | | 相对表现 | 3.6 | 35.8 | 46.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the transportation industry, highlighting potential rebound opportunities in various sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of shipping rates post-holiday, the impact of US-China tariff disputes on shipping prices, and the potential for price recovery in the aviation sector due to increased travel demand [1][14]. - It identifies key investment opportunities in infrastructure and logistics, particularly in companies with attractive dividend yields and stable earnings [16][18]. Shipping - Post-holiday shipping rates have shown recovery, with the SCFI for the US East route increasing by 2.8% to $2452/FEU, and the European route rising by 10% to $1068/TEU [12]. - The report notes that the US-China tariff disputes are causing short-term fluctuations in shipping rates, particularly affecting oil tankers [14]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy due to expected benefits from these market dynamics [14]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that highway stocks have fallen to a dividend yield of over 5%, suggesting potential for a rebound if market sentiment shifts [16]. - Weekly data shows a 27.6% decrease in truck traffic, while rail freight increased by 0.95% [15][16]. - Key recommended stocks include China Merchants Highway, Anhui Expressway, and Qingdao Port [16]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a stable growth rate, with a 12.3% year-on-year increase in business volume in August 2025 [17]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy that is expected to ease price competition and improve valuations in the sector [18]. - Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, with a focus on price performance during the peak season [18]. Aviation - The aviation sector is seeing a recovery in passenger numbers, with a 3.9% year-on-year increase during the holiday period [19]. - The report suggests that the low base effect in Q4 could lead to price recovery opportunities for airlines [19]. - Recommended airlines include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [19]. Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes and stable short-haul freight rates [21]. - The report notes that the logistics market is benefiting from increased demand and improved operational efficiencies [21].

Group 1 - The report highlights the long-term allocation value of Hong Kong-listed central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dividend assets, which have shown stable performance amid global economic uncertainties and recent tariff conflicts [1][7][19] - As of October 10, 2025, the returns of major indices over the past two years are as follows: Hang Seng Index at 45.85%, Hang Seng Tech at 54.03%, Hang Seng High Dividend at 51.35%, and the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index at 31.15% [8][9][19] - The report indicates that dividend assets have lower volatility and stronger stability compared to other indices during market fluctuations, particularly during the recent tariff shocks [11][19] Group 2 - The trading congestion of Hong Kong SOE dividend assets has increased, yet they remain relatively undervalued, offering high investment value [19][45] - The dividend yield of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index is 6.07%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield by 4.22 percentage points [25][27] - The report notes that the relative attractiveness of dividend assets has improved due to declining bond yields, with the yield ratio of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index to the 10-year government bond yield reaching 3.29 as of October 10, 2025 [26][27] Group 3 - As of October 10, 2025, the total market capitalization of Hong Kong-listed SOEs is 13.5 trillion HKD, accounting for 17% of the overall market [35][36] - The report details that the H-share SOE PE (TTM) averages are 4.93, with a market-weighted average of 9.38, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the overall Hong Kong market [45][51] - The report also highlights that the dividend yield of Hong Kong SOEs is generally higher than that of A-shares, with a significant contribution from state-owned enterprises [8][9][69]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Multi-cycle timing model for domestic interest rate price-volume trends **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to capture interest rate trend patterns, identifying support and resistance lines based on different investment cycles. It provides composite timing signals by analyzing the shape of interest rate movements across long, medium, and short cycles[10][24][29] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Data Input**: Use 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond YTM data as the basis for analysis[10][24][29] 2. **Cycle Definition**: Define long, medium, and short cycles with average switching frequencies of monthly, bi-weekly, and weekly, respectively[10][24][29] 3. **Signal Generation**: - If at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs of the support line and the interest rate trend is not upward, allocate fully to long-duration bonds - If at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs of the support line but the interest rate trend is upward, allocate 50% to medium-duration bonds and 50% to long-duration bonds - If at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs of the resistance line and the interest rate trend is not downward, allocate fully to short-duration bonds - If at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs of the resistance line but the interest rate trend is downward, allocate 50% to medium-duration bonds and 50% to short-duration bonds - In other cases, allocate equally across short, medium, and long durations[24][29][29] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong adaptability across different market environments and provides consistent timing signals based on multi-cycle resonance[10][24][29] - **Model Name**: Multi-cycle timing model for U.S. interest rate price-volume trends **Model Construction Idea**: The domestic price-volume timing model is applied to the U.S. interest rate market, analyzing long, medium, and short cycles to generate composite timing signals[21][23][24] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Data Input**: Use 10-year U.S. Treasury YTM data for analysis[21][23][24] 2. **Cycle Definition**: Define long, medium, and short cycles with average switching frequencies of monthly, bi-weekly, and weekly, respectively[21][23][24] 3. **Signal Generation**: Similar to the domestic model, signals are generated based on the number of cycles showing breakthroughs of support or resistance lines and the direction of interest rate trends[21][23][24] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures U.S. interest rate trends and provides reliable timing signals for investment decisions[21][23][24] Model Backtesting Results - **Domestic Multi-cycle Timing Model** - **5-year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.5% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.91 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 1.86% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.15 - Long-term excess return: 1.07% - Excess return-to-drawdown ratio: 0.62 - Short-term excess return: 0.86% - Excess return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.18[25][27][37] - **10-year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.09% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.23 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.35% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.07 - Long-term excess return: 1.66% - Excess return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.16 - Short-term excess return: 1.56% - Excess return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.46[28][32][37] - **30-year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.38% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.73 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.98% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.26 - Long-term excess return: 2.42% - Excess return-to-drawdown ratio: 0.87 - Short-term excess return: 2.87% - Excess return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.21[33][35][37] - **U.S. Multi-cycle Timing Model** - **10-year YTM**: - Composite signal: Long cycle upward breakthrough, medium and short cycles downward breakthrough - Final signal: Bullish[21][23][24]

Core Insights - The recent escalation of the US-China supply chain and tariff conflict is a continuation of trade frictions since 2018, and it is not a new negative factor for the A-share market. Historical experience shows that such shocks often create phase low points and investment opportunities [2][6][10] - Compared to the tariff shock in April this year, the current market has more favorable conditions, including investor expectations of tariff threats and stronger market resilience due to key resistance levels being surpassed [4][10] - Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but the market still shows resilience, with the potential for new highs after the shock ends. This adjustment may serve as an opportunity to optimize the investment structure [2][10] Industry and Company Analysis - The classic response strategy to the US-China conflict emphasizes self-sufficiency and domestic circulation, suggesting a focus on sectors with relatively low positions and marginal improvements, such as military industry, semiconductors, software self-sufficiency, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - The current market sentiment is bolstered by a stronger willingness of residents to invest, increased protective actions from important institutional investors, and accelerated trends in new industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which provide long-term value during corrections [4][10] - The average guarantee ratio in the market has significantly improved from 261% in April to 287%, enhancing the market's ability to withstand downturns despite a larger scale of financing [4][9][10] - The recent market dynamics indicate that sectors such as gold, copper, cobalt, photovoltaic batteries, lithium battery equipment, wind power, semiconductors, and automotive are experiencing improvements or high levels of prosperity [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [4][29]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 1.5% during the week of October 5 to October 11, 2025, with various segments showing mixed performance [2][10]. - New energy vehicle sales reached record highs in September, with Leap Motor delivering over 60,000 units, marking a significant milestone for the industry [21]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, announced adjustments to the technical requirements for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles for 2026-2027 [22]. Market Performance Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.9% during the same period [2][8]. - The automotive sector's secondary segments mostly declined, with the automotive services sector showing a notable increase of 1.7% [10]. Individual Stock Performance - Among automotive stocks, Meili Technology saw the highest increase at 18.9%, while Mingxin Xuteng experienced the largest decline at 18.5% [3][12]. - Key covered stocks showed a mixed performance, with Kabeiyi rising by 13.2% and Hengshuai falling by 10.6% [15]. Recent Industry Developments - BYD announced the production of its 14 millionth new energy vehicle, marking a significant milestone in its global expansion [23]. - Changan Avita completed the payment for the acquisition of a 10% stake in Huawei's subsidiary, marking the completion of the transaction [24]. - Tesla's Q3 vehicle deliveries increased by 7.4% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations, with a total of 497,099 vehicles delivered [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [7]. - For commercial vehicles, it suggests investing in Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Weichai Power [7].