证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 08 月 01 日 业务量快速增长，反内卷利好行业价格与估值修复 快递行业 2025 年 6 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注：关注 25 年价格竞争情况和行业估值修复潜力。 ❑ 快递行业核心数据：1）量，2025 年 6 月，全国快递业务量完成 168.7 亿件， 同比增长 15.8%；2）收入，快递业务收入完成 1263.2 亿元，同比增长 9.0%；3） 价格，单票收入为 7.49 元，同比下降 5.9%；4）消费数据，6 月全国社零总额为 4.23 万亿元，同比增长 4.8%；1-6 月，累计社零总额为 24.55 万亿元，同比增长 5.0%，其中实物商品网上零售额 6.12 万亿元，同比增长 6.0%。 ❑ 上市快递公司核心数据：1）量，2025 年 6 月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通分别完成业 务量 14.6/26.3/21.7/21.8 亿票，同比增速分别为 31.8%/19.3%/7.4%/11.1%；2）价 格，6 月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通单票价格分别为 13.7/2.1/1.9/2.0 元，同比变动分别 为-13.3%/-6.5%/-4.5%/- ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the AI PCB sector, indicating strong growth potential driven by AI demand and product upgrades [1][8]. Core Insights - North American cloud service providers (CSPs) have reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, leading to upward revisions in future capital expenditure (Capex) forecasts, indicating sustained demand for AI computing power [1][2]. - The AI PCB product upgrade trend is expected to significantly enhance the average selling price (ASP) of AI PCBs, driven by advancements in technology and increased complexity in design [3][7]. - The report emphasizes that the expansion of AI PCB production capacity is unlikely to lead to oversupply in the short to medium term, as demand continues to outpace supply due to high technical barriers and increasing design specifications [8][9]. Summary by Sections AI Computing Power Trends - Major CSPs like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon have increased their AI Capex forecasts significantly, with Google raising its 2025 Capex from $75 billion to $85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62% [2]. - The demand for AI computing power is expected to remain robust, with significant investments in AI infrastructure across the industry [2]. AI PCB Product Upgrade Trends - The introduction of next-generation AI server products, such as NVIDIA's Rubin series, is anticipated to require higher-layer HDI and advanced CCL materials, which will increase the value of AI PCBs [3][7]. - The report highlights that the complexity and performance requirements of AI PCBs are increasing, leading to a higher demand for advanced materials and manufacturing techniques [7][10]. Impact of PCB Capacity Expansion - A number of PCB manufacturers in China are planning significant capacity expansions to meet the growing demand for AI PCBs, with companies like Huadian and Pengding Holdings announcing substantial investments [8][9]. - The report suggests that the competitive landscape will favor leading manufacturers with established relationships and technological advantages, reinforcing a "stronger gets stronger" trend in the industry [8][9]. Upstream Material Impact - The demand for high-end materials such as M8/M9 CCL and specialty fiberglass is expected to rise sharply, with a projected CAGR of 26% for high-end CCL materials from 2024 to 2026 [10]. - The supply of these materials is currently constrained, presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share in high-end product segments [10]. Equipment Demand from PCB Expansion - The expansion of high-end PCB production is expected to drive demand for advanced PCB manufacturing equipment, with the market for PCB-specific equipment projected to grow significantly [11][12]. - Domestic equipment manufacturers are likely to benefit from this trend, particularly in areas such as drilling and exposure equipment, as they seek to replace imported high-end equipment [11][12].

Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% in the previous period[12] - Sales in May rose by 3.30% year-on-year, compared to 3.68% previously[12] - The U.S. is confirmed to be entering an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025[12] - A brief replenishment demand is expected in June and July, after which active destocking will continue[12] Industry Inventory Cycle - Six out of fourteen major industries are in active destocking as of May, including oil, gas, chemicals, transportation, automotive parts, textiles, and food[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in May is 32.4%, with construction materials at 83.6% and chemicals at 69.3%[19] - The first round of excess imports is estimated at $180 billion and the second at $100 billion, totaling $280 billion, which may be exhausted by November[12] - Recent rapid declines in copper prices are attributed to a 50% tariff on copper products while exempting raw materials, disrupting supply and demand dynamics[13] Risk Factors - The potential for U.S. economic fundamentals and policies to exceed expectations poses a risk to inventory and pricing stability[8]

Economic Growth - The initial estimate of the US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 is 3.0%, a significant increase from the previous value of -0.5%[1] - Net exports contributed 5.0 percentage points to GDP growth, reversing the previous drag of 4.6 percentage points[1] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q2 2025, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter, contributing 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth[1] - Goods consumption increased to 2.2% from 0.1%, while services consumption rose to 1.1% from 0.6%[1] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment recorded a growth of 1.9%, down from 10.3%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth[1] - Residential investment declined by 4.6%, worsening from a previous decline of 1.3%, detracting 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth[1] Inventory and Government Spending - Inventory investment negatively impacted GDP growth by 3.2 percentage points, a shift from a positive contribution of 2.6 percentage points in the previous quarter[1] - Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, with federal government spending detracting 0.2 percentage points[1] Trade Dynamics - The trade deficit for May 2025 was recorded at $71.517 billion, with a goods trade deficit of $96.423 billion and a services trade surplus of $25.994 billion[1] - The impact of "import rush" has diminished, leading to a rapid narrowing of the trade deficit, which has now become a contributor to GDP growth[1]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% and kept the balance sheet reduction pace unchanged at $50 billion per month for U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion per month for MBS[5] - Powell expressed concerns about stagflation risks, indicating that as long as the inflation gap exceeds the employment gap, the Fed will find it difficult to lower interest rates[7] Inflation and Tariffs - As of May, the actual tariff rate for the U.S. was approximately 9.6%, with potential increases to 15%-16% after new tariffs take effect on August 1, and possibly up to 18%-19% when considering specific goods[2] - The effective tariff rate could pose an inflation risk of 30-60 basis points, with the impact on inflation data expected to manifest in September and further affect October-November figures[2] Market Outlook - Short-term volatility in U.S. stocks is anticipated, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to trade agreements and supportive government policies[3] - The market currently prices a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating that the risk-free rate is no longer a positive factor[8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy grew by 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, with consumer spending slowing and real estate remaining weak[4] - Labor market conditions are showing synchronized declines in demand and supply, with a focus on the unemployment rate as a key indicator[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy in the second half of the year is set to "continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner" to promote the recovery of domestic demand and achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% [2][3]. - The "anti - involution" policy will be steadily advanced, and it is expected that CPI and PPI will rise moderately in the second half of the year [4]. - Fiscal policy emphasizes accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, and attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. - Monetary policy maintains a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus, and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened [7]. - The bond market will experience increased volatility, and the investment strategy should be defensive [8]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Macro - policy orientation - The macro - policy in the second half of the year needs to continue and increase force to consolidate the economic recovery and achieve the 5% GDP growth target. It aims to release domestic demand potential by promoting consumption and expanding effective investment [2][3]. II. "Anti - involution" and price trends - The "anti - involution" policy will be advanced to promote the balance of supply and demand and the return of prices to a reasonable level. It is expected that CPI and PPI will rise steadily in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity governance measures in key industries [4]. III. Fiscal policy - The fiscal policy is set to be more proactive. As of July 30, the cumulative issuance of local new general bonds was 538.3 billion with a progress of 67.3%, and that of local new special bonds was 277.6 billion with a progress of 63.13%. Attention should be paid to whether there will be additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [4][5]. IV. Monetary policy - Monetary policy will maintain a loose tone, with structural monetary policy tools as the focus. The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be strengthened to keep liquidity abundant and lower the comprehensive social financing cost [7]. V. Bond market strategy - The influence of the stock market on the bond market has increased, bringing re - pricing pressure on long - term bonds. The short - term risk of a bearish bond market is low. The investment strategy suggests that the 10 - year treasury bond rate of 1.75% - 1.8% has allocation value, and attention can be paid to the allocation value of short - duration and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds after adjustment [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company focuses on digital power grids and smart cities, possessing comprehensive solutions for the energy IoT sector. With the acceleration of the new power system transformation and the promotion of smart city construction, domestic business is expected to continue expanding. Additionally, the company is actively seizing overseas development opportunities, particularly in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, leading to anticipated high growth in overseas revenue [2][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.368 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 305 million yuan, up 12.24% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 3.358 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 770 million yuan, also reflecting a 22% growth [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.57 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22.0x [3][15]. - The overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 283 million yuan, accounting for 20.82% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 25.75% [7][14]. Business Expansion and Market Position - The company is enhancing its overseas localized production capacity, with the establishment of a manufacturing base in Indonesia and plans for factories in Saudi Arabia and Mexico. This dual approach of trade and localized production is expected to drive future growth in overseas business contributions [7][14]. - The report highlights that the national grid's investment in 2025 is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan, marking a historical high, which will significantly benefit the company as it participates in the construction of the new power system [7][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strong Buy" for key companies such as Shenzhou Digital and Midea Group [2]. Core Insights - The water purifier industry is experiencing continuous growth driven by rising health awareness among consumers and technological advancements in product features. Domestic subsidies are accelerating market penetration, leading to an increase in average prices and a gradual replacement of foreign brands by domestic ones. The overseas demand remains strong with high purchasing power [1][6][11]. Industry Overview - The global water purifier market is projected to reach USD 35 billion by 2024, with North America holding approximately 34% of the market share, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 30% and Europe at 25% [6][13]. - In China, the retail sales of water purifiers reached CNY 11 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 22% year-on-year increase. The current penetration rate in first and second-tier cities is about 40%, while the overall penetration is only 23%, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed countries [6][21]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a shift from a focus on "safe drinking water" to a broader demand for "healthy water" that encompasses various household uses. This change is driven by heightened consumer awareness regarding water quality [11][15]. - The online sales channel accounted for 55% of the market share in 2025, with significant growth in offline sales driven by government subsidies [25][51]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape features four main categories of players: global companies (e.g., A.O. Smith), home appliance giants (e.g., Midea, Haier), specialized brands (e.g., Qinyuan, Angel), and internet players (e.g., Xiaomi, Yunmi). The latter two categories are gaining market share through competitive pricing and user engagement strategies [47][48]. Company Focus: Yunmi Technology - Yunmi Technology has restructured its business to focus on water purifiers, achieving profitability after a challenging period. The company is closely tied to Xiaomi, benefiting from its brand strength and distribution channels [56][61]. - In 2024, Yunmi's revenue is expected to reach CNY 2.12 billion, a 29% increase, with a net profit of CNY 62 million, marking a turnaround from previous losses [58][70]. Product Trends - The market is witnessing a rise in the popularity of mineral water purifiers and integrated heating purifiers, with their market shares increasing significantly due to consumer preferences for health-oriented products [35][43]. - The average price of water purifiers in the first half of 2025 was CNY 1,729 online and CNY 4,933 offline, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.85% and 7.47%, respectively [35][42]. Future Outlook - The domestic market for water purifiers is expected to grow significantly, driven by government subsidies and increasing consumer awareness of health. The overseas market, particularly in North America and Southeast Asia, shows promising growth potential [70][74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 12 billion to 12.5 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255%. The net profit is projected to be between RMB 2.23 billion and 2.28 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 279% to 288% [1][7]. - The report has revised profit forecasts, estimating net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 4.582 billion, RMB 6.458 billion, and RMB 8.563 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 211%, 41%, and 33% [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 25.214 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 196% [2][10]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 4.582 billion, reflecting a growth of 211% compared to the previous year [2][11]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is expected to be 24.5 [2][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 61.6% in 2025 [11]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in brand influence and channel expansion, with new store openings in high-end shopping centers in major cities and overseas [7]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 is expected to be between 17.8% and 19.0%, an improvement from 16.7% in the first half of 2024 [7].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant growth in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 23.76%, outperforming major global indices such as Germany's DAX and the UK's FTSE 100 [6][13][16] - The influx of southbound capital has been substantial, with a cumulative net purchase of 731.19 billion HKD through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 96.86% [6][10][11] - The primary drivers of the index's rise are the valuation recoveries in innovative pharmaceuticals and AI technologies, indicating a structural market rather than a broad-based rally [13][20] Group 2 - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by stable earnings from leading companies and the potential for upward revisions in profitability as AI technologies become commercialized [14][20][22] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of the Hang Seng Technology Index stands at 20.84, which is relatively low compared to historical averages, suggesting room for growth [20][21] - The report highlights the increasing R&D expenditure in China, projected to reach 3.61 trillion CNY in 2024, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the technology sector [22][23] Group 3 - Mainland investors can participate in Hong Kong's technology sector through various passive investment vehicles, including QDII funds, Hong Kong Stock Connect funds, mutual recognition funds, and interconnectivity funds [26][27] - The majority of passive products tracking Hong Kong technology indices are linked to the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has the largest number of products and the highest total assets under management [28][30] - As of mid-2025, there are 33 QDII funds tracking technology-related indices with a total scale of 116.47 billion CNY, and 37 Hong Kong Stock Connect funds with a total scale of 106.96 billion CNY [27][28] Group 4 - The report compares various Hong Kong technology indices, noting that the Hang Seng Technology Index and the China Securities Hong Kong Technology Index do not have connectivity restrictions, allowing for a broader selection of stocks [33][36] - The Hang Seng Port Connect Technology Theme Index focuses more on traditional TMT sectors, indicating a higher concentration in specific industries compared to other indices [36][38] - The top ten constituents of the Hong Kong technology indices include major players like Xiaomi, Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and Kuaishou, reflecting a high concentration of significant technology firms [38][39]