Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Hong Kong Exchanges achieved record high quarterly profits supported by trading volume, with a 33% year-on-year increase in revenue to HKD 14.076 billion and a 39% increase in net profit to HKD 8.519 billion for the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The trading fee income from the stock market saw a significant increase of 112% to HKD 2.556 billion, driven by a 122% year-on-year growth in average daily trading volume [2] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, projecting HKD 17 billion, HKD 18 billion, and HKD 19.6 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 13.48, HKD 14.22, and HKD 15.43 [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 1H25, the revenue breakdown by business lines showed significant growth rates: cash market at 62%, derivatives at 15%, commodities at 8%, data and connectivity at 5%, and company projects at 28% [1] - The trading and transaction system usage fees increased by 49%, while listing fees rose by 30% due to a recovery in the IPO market [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 26% for 2025, followed by 6% and 7% in subsequent years, with net profit growth rates of 31%, 6%, and 9% respectively [3][7] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 33, 31, and 29 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decrease in unit costs and a downward adjustment in volume growth guidance due to changes in the economic and competitive landscape [5][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 22.723 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 4.312 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Operating Performance - In Q2 2025, the company handled 9.850 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, maintaining a market share of approximately 19.5%, which is the highest in the industry [3] - The average revenue per parcel in Q2 2025 was 1.12 yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, influenced by intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [3] - The unit cost for express delivery in Q2 2025 was approximately 0.58 yuan, a decrease of 11.0% year-on-year, with line haul costs down 15.0% and sorting costs down 5.1% [4] Volume Growth Guidance - The company has adjusted its full-year volume growth target for 2025 to 14%-18%, down from the previous 20%-24% due to the current economic and competitive environment [5] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has growth potential, particularly with the rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales, despite the downward trend in individual parcel values [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policies and changes in the competitive landscape within the express delivery sector [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 is 9.297 billion yuan, 10.881 billion yuan, and 12.782 billion yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth of -7.77%, +17.04%, and +17.48% respectively [7] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's leading unit profitability and cash flow, alongside its scale and management advantages [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and adjusted net profit for H1 2025 were 439 million and 63 million respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.63% but a decline in net profit by 23.86% due to the impact of new campus ramp-up in Guangzhou and personnel adjustments in Shenzhen [2] - The company has a total of 184 learning centers, a 26.9% increase year-on-year, with 15 new centers opened in H1 2025 [3] - The company is actively seeking new business opportunities, including educational tourism and international courses, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [3] Financial Summary - The company's gross margin, operating profit margin (OPM), and adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 were 34.3%, 17.6%, and 18.5% respectively, reflecting declines of 10.1, 10.9, and 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s contract liabilities decreased by 24.5% year-on-year to 182 million [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted down to 1,053.78 million and 1,317.77 million respectively, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 186.77 million and 261.18 million [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.33 and 0.46 respectively, with a new EPS forecast of 0.64 for 2027 [5] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.85% from 2023 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 58.03% and 69.38% for 2023 and 2024 respectively [8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 7.87, 5.63, and 4.07 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company exceeded market expectations in H1 2025 with revenue, net profit, and operating cash flow of $1.229 billion, $98 million, and $155 million respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.4%, 16.8%, and 255.4% [2] - The company plans to expand its customer base in Europe in the second half of 2025, which is expected to drive future growth [3] - The company declared a dividend of 16.3 HK cents per share for H1 2025, up from 13.8 HK cents in H1 2024, with a payout ratio of 60% and an annualized dividend yield of 5.4% [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 19.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by improved production efficiency in leisure and underwear segments [4] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 8.0%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with stable administrative and R&D expenses [4] - The company’s inventory increased by 18.51% year-on-year to $352 million, leading to an increase in inventory turnover days by 4 days to 59 days [5] Growth Strategy - The company aims to leverage growth opportunities in Europe and Asia, with a focus on expanding its customer base and establishing new production facilities [3][6] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 is set at $2.813 billion, with net profit expected to be $235 million, corresponding to an EPS of $0.08 [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of denim and underwear customer segments, as well as the growing demand in the women's sports market [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9, 8, and 7 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 13.91% from 2025 to 2026 [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao [3][8] Core Views - China Jinmao is undergoing significant changes, including new management, cost reduction, and operational efficiency improvements. The company is backed by its major shareholder, Sinochem Group, which has increased its financial support significantly [7][8] - The company has outperformed the industry in land acquisition and sales, ranking 4th in land acquisition and 9th in sales as of July 2025, with a projected sales target of 110 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [7][8] - The company has adequately provisioned for impairments, gradually alleviating historical burdens, and has introduced a new product line, "Jin Yu Man Tang," which has been well-received in the market [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for China Jinmao are as follows: - 2023: 72.404 billion yuan - 2024: 59.053 billion yuan - 2025E: 49.620 billion yuan - 2026E: 44.037 billion yuan - 2027E: 39.390 billion yuan - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.701 billion yuan in 2024, 0.738 billion yuan in 2025, 0.792 billion yuan in 2026, and 0.869 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 110.2%, 5.2%, 7.3%, and 9.7% [6][8] Key Changes - **Change 1**: New management has been appointed, focusing on cost reduction and operational benchmarks. The new CEO, Tao Tianhai, has a history of rapid expansion in the East China region, which now contributes 40% of the company's sales [7][18] - **Change 2**: Sinochem Group, the major shareholder, has increased its financial support to the company by 25.6 billion yuan, highlighting the company's importance within the group [7][20][22] - **Change 3**: The company has significantly outperformed the industry in land acquisition and sales, with a sales amount of 61.8 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [7][27] - **Change 4**: The company has made substantial impairment provisions since 2020, totaling 17.5 billion yuan, which is higher than the industry average [7][49] - **Change 5**: The introduction of the "Jin Yu Man Tang" product line has set new benchmarks for quality housing, with several projects achieving rapid sales [7][50] Valuation and Target Price - The report estimates a target market value of 31.3 billion HKD for China Jinmao, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.75x, reflecting the company's anticipated growth in sales and profitability [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) with a target price of 293.51 HKD [5][3] Core Views - The introduction of well-known Korean music labels and the promotion of original music are expected to drive growth in online music MAU (Monthly Active Users) [3][8] - The company reported a 25H1 revenue of 3.83 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, which was slightly below Bloomberg's expectations [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 25H1 was 1.89 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 133%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 57% [8] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 2.81 billion, 2.17 billion, and 2.54 billion CNY respectively [3] - The revenue for 2025 is expected to be 7.93 billion CNY, with a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, followed by a growth of 9.7% in 2026 [10] - The report anticipates that the online music revenue for 25H2 may reach 3.2 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [8] - The company is focusing on its core music business while adjusting its social entertainment segment, which saw a significant decline in revenue [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 25H1 was 36%, which was 2 percentage points higher than Bloomberg's expectations [8] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 12.91 CNY, with a net profit margin of 35.4% [10] - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 is estimated at 19.7 times, while the price-to-book ratio is projected at 4.3 times [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 met expectations, with significant growth driven by brand influence and product optimization [7] - The company continues to expand its offline and online sales channels, achieving remarkable revenue growth [7] - The brand's high-end positioning is validated by increasing customer loyalty and market overlap with luxury brands [7] - The company is well-positioned for future growth due to its unique product offerings and ongoing store expansion [7] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 12.354 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 251.0%, and a profit of 2.268 billion RMB, up 285.8% [7] - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be 4.899 billion RMB, 6.607 billion RMB, and 8.466 billion RMB, with growth rates of 232.5%, 34.9%, and 28.1% respectively [8] - The average sales performance per store in a shopping mall reached approximately 459 million RMB, ranking first among all jewelry brands in mainland China [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company has opened 41 self-operated stores across 16 cities, with a focus on high-end shopping centers [7] - The brand's customer base is expanding to include high-net-worth individuals across different age groups [7] - The company plans to adjust product prices to support profit performance, reflecting its high-end brand positioning [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) with a target price of HKD 515.00, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 441.2 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that HKEX achieved record half-year results in H1 2025, with total revenue of HKD 14.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 8.5 billion, up 39% year-on-year [1][5]. - The report emphasizes strong trading activity in both the cash and derivatives markets, contributing to the revenue and profit growth [5][8]. - The report projects continued growth in net profit for HKEX, estimating HKD 16.6 billion, HKD 18.1 billion, and HKD 19.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 9%, and 7% respectively [8]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 financial highlights include: - Total revenue: HKD 14.1 billion, +33% YoY - Net profit: HKD 8.5 billion, +39% YoY - EBITDA: HKD 10.9 billion, +43% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 79%, up 6 percentage points YoY [1][5][8]. - Revenue breakdown by business segment for H1 2025: - Cash market: HKD 6.7 billion, +62% YoY - Equity securities and financial derivatives: HKD 3.55 billion, +15% YoY - Other segments also showed positive growth [5][8]. Market Activity - The report notes that the cash market saw record trading volumes, with average daily turnover (ADT) reaching HKD 222.8 billion, a 122% increase YoY [5][6]. - The primary market experienced a strong momentum with 44 new listings in H1 2025, raising HKD 109.4 billion, which is more than eight times the amount raised in H1 2024 [8][34]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected financial metrics for HKEX: - Revenue growth forecast for 2025: HKD 27.8 billion, +24% YoY - Projected PE ratio for 2025: 22.23 [7][33]. - The report indicates a strong return on equity (ROE) of 25.1% and a book value per share of HKD 41.0 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 54.07, based on a 43x PE ratio [4][7]. Core Insights - The company, 康耐特光学, is a leading global manufacturer of resin eyeglass lenses, with a strong focus on customized and high-refractive lenses, which has driven significant revenue and profit growth [1][3]. - The global lens market is expected to grow steadily, driven by factors such as aging populations and increased screen time, with the Chinese market showing higher growth rates than the global average [2][43]. - The company has a robust product matrix and is expanding its market presence through innovative business models, including a C2M (Customer to Manufacturer) approach, which allows for personalized lens production [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Lens Manufacturing Leader - 康耐特光学 ranks second in global resin lens sales volume and fifth in sales revenue, with a market share that positions it as a domestic leader [1][13]. - The company has achieved a revenue CAGR of 15.82% from 2018 to 2024, growing from CNY 854 million to CNY 2.061 billion, and a net profit CAGR of 32.81%, reaching CNY 428 million [1][28]. - The gross margin improved from 30.61% in 2018 to 38.58% in 2024, while the net margin increased from 9.19% to 20.78% during the same period [31]. 2. High-End Market and Industry Growth - The global lens market is projected to grow from USD 5.2 billion in 2019 to USD 6.2 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.6% [33][34]. - The Chinese lens market is expected to grow from CNY 154.8 billion to CNY 207.2 billion from 2019 to 2024, with a CAGR of 6.0% [43][44]. - The demand for high-refractive and functional lenses is increasing, driven by consumer preferences for quality and advanced features [48]. 3. Product Quality and Market Expansion - The company has exclusive production capabilities for high-refractive lenses (1.74) and offers competitive pricing compared to international brands [3][13]. - The C2M model is being utilized to enhance customer engagement and reduce inventory costs, allowing for rapid market penetration [3][4]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity to meet the growing demand for AI glasses and XR lenses, with plans for a new production line in Thailand [3][4]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 2.43 billion, CNY 2.84 billion, and CNY 3.31 billion, with respective growth rates of 17.91%, 16.89%, and 16.71% [4][8]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are CNY 550 million, CNY 665 million, and CNY 801 million, with growth rates of 28.29%, 21.10%, and 20.30% [4][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5][25]. Core Views - Lenovo Group has experienced rapid revenue growth across all business segments, with a reported revenue of $18.83 billion for FY1Q2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.9%. Net profit reached $505 million, up 107.6% year-on-year and 462.2% quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The company has strengthened its global PC market share, achieving a record high of 24.8% in Q2 2025, with significant growth in AI PC penetration and smartphone sales exceeding market growth for eight consecutive quarters [2][21]. - The financial outlook has been adjusted upwards due to the rapid growth in AI PC penetration and smartphone sales, with projected net profits for FY2026-FY2028 estimated at $1.723 billion, $1.909 billion, and $2.187 billion respectively [3][25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY1Q2026, Lenovo's revenue was $18.83 billion, with the Intelligent Devices Group (IDG), Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), and Solutions and Services Group (SSG) generating revenues of $13.46 billion, $4.29 billion, and $2.26 billion respectively, all showing double-digit growth [1][7]. - The company reported a gross margin of 14.7%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to pressures in the smartphone and server businesses [3][24]. Market Position - Lenovo's global PC market share increased to 24.8%, with commercial PCs at 27.9%, consumer PCs at 20.2%, and gaming PCs at 18.5%, all ranking first in their respective categories [2][21]. - In the AI PC segment, Lenovo holds a 30.6% market share, the highest globally, with significant engagement in AI applications [2][21]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied by region, with China and Asia-Pacific (excluding China) showing strong growth rates of 36% and 39% respectively, while Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and the Americas grew by 9% and 14% [18].