Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company is recognized as an excellent international brand operator, with a promising future as it rebounds from a low point. It operates notable brands including Clarks, Bossini, and Testoni, and has established a joint venture to manage the outdoor brand Haglöfs in Greater China. For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HK$48.1 billion (down 5.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of HK$1.8 billion (up 60.9% year-on-year) [1][4] - Clarks, a 200-year-old global footwear brand, holds a market share of 14.6% in the UK (ranked first) and 1.8% in the US (ranked eighth). The brand's revenue for the first half of 2025 was HK$41.5 billion (down 5.3% year-on-year), accounting for 85.7% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 48.7% (up 0.1 percentage points) [2] - The company is actively expanding its online sales network, with a 9.7% year-on-year increase in online revenue to HK$6.3 billion for the first half of 2025, representing 15.2% of total revenue [3] - The newly appointed co-CEO, Victor Herrero, has extensive management experience and has successfully led the company to profitability, with a 60.9% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [4] - The company is also focusing on the outdoor segment by enhancing its presence with the high-end outdoor brand Haglöfs, planning to open over 20 stores in Greater China by 2025 [5] - Profit forecasts indicate a positive outlook, with expected net profits of HK$2.1 billion, HK$5.1 billion, and HK$5.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting significant growth [6] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HK$48.1 billion and a net profit of HK$1.8 billion, with projections for 2025-2027 indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [1][6] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is HK$10,466 million, with a projected net profit of HK$208.2 million, marking a significant turnaround from a loss in 2024 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is recognized as an excellent international brand operator with a promising future, having a diverse portfolio that includes Clarks, Bossini, and Testoni, among others. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HK$48.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.9% to HK$1.8 billion [1][4] - Clarks, a well-known global footwear brand, holds a market share of 14.6% in the UK and 1.8% in the US. The brand's revenue for the first half of 2025 was HK$41.5 billion, down 5.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.7% [2] - The new co-CEO, Victor Herrero, has extensive management experience and has successfully led the company to profitability, with a significant increase in net profit in the first half of 2025 [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of HK$2.1 billion, HK$5.1 billion, and HK$5.7 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [6] - The projected revenue for 2025 is HK$10.47 billion, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [11] Online and Offline Expansion - Clarks is actively expanding its online sales network, with a projected online revenue increase of 9.7% to HK$630 million in the first half of 2025, accounting for 15.2% of total revenue [3] - The company plans to open new concept stores globally, including three independent Cloudstepper™ stores in Malaysia and the US by 2025, and a larger Canvas retail concept store in London's Tottenham Court Road [2][3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its outdoor brand presence by establishing a joint venture to operate the Haglöfs brand in Greater China, with plans to open over 20 stores by 2025 [5] - The company is also leveraging social media platforms for targeted marketing to boost brand recognition [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][11]. Core Insights - The company, 古茗 (Gu Ming), is positioned in the tea beverage sector with significant growth potential, driven by rapid product innovation and a strong supply chain [3][7]. - The company has implemented a new franchise policy to encourage existing franchisees to open more stores, which is expected to enhance local brand visibility and operational efficiency [6][8]. - The company has a robust research and development team, with approximately 120 members, focusing on product development and supply chain optimization [7]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 134 billion, RMB 163 billion, and RMB 198 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a net profit of RMB 27.5 billion, RMB 28.4 billion, and RMB 35.4 billion [9][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 101% in 2025, 76% in 2026, and 71% in 2027, while net profit growth is anticipated at 86% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 24% in 2027 [10][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 22 in 2025 to 17 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [10][11]. Market Position and Strategy - As of November 2025, the company has 13,117 stores, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, with significant presence in key provinces [9]. - The company’s strategy of regional clustering for store openings is expected to enhance consumer reach and operational management [8][9]. - The company has established a strong supply chain with direct sourcing and self-operated logistics, ensuring product quality and cost control [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 97.3, representing a potential upside of 17.8% from the current price of HKD 82.6 [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the performance of the two main brands, Anta and Fila, in Q4 2025 showed contrasting results, with Anta experiencing a slight decline in retail sales while Fila saw growth due to strategic adjustments by the new management [1][2]. - The long-term growth of the company is expected to rely on its multi-brand globalization strategy, despite short-term pressures on profit margins in 2026 [3][2]. - The report emphasizes that while the market sentiment may remain weak in the short term, the company's ongoing efforts in brand diversification and global expansion are likely to drive sales and profit growth in the long run [3][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Anta's revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 62,356 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2%. The revenue is expected to reach RMB 79,961 million in 2025, growing at 12.9% [10]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 10,236 million, with a significant increase of 34.9% compared to the previous year. However, a decline of 15.9% is anticipated for 2026, with a recovery expected in 2027 [10][12]. - The operating profit margin is projected to decrease from 24.6% in 2023 to 22.8% in 2025, reflecting the anticipated pressures on profitability [12]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail sales in Q4 2025 recorded a slight decline of less than 1% year-on-year, while Fila's sales grew in the mid-single digits, attributed to effective management strategies [1][2]. - Other brands under the company are expected to maintain high double-digit growth in 2026, although at a slower pace compared to 2025 [2][3]. Market Strategy - The company plans to enhance its market investment in 2026, coinciding with major events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games, which is expected to support brand visibility and sales [2]. - The report suggests that the market should focus on the strategic significance of new brand acquisitions for long-term growth rather than short-term performance impacts [3].

证券研究报告 小菜园 (999 HK) 港股通 强化性价比优势拥抱高质量增长 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 华泰研究 | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 目标价(港币): | 11.41 | | 2025 年餐饮行业整体表现受到外卖补贴节奏扰动较明显，中低客单价大众 | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | | 日常品类在较大幅度补贴下性价比优势显著放大、阶段性需求表现占优。回 | | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 | fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 | SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070021 hongyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 1 月 20 日) | 8.81 | | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading diversified copper producer under China Minmetals, aiming to achieve a copper production target of over 1 million tons by 2030 [6][21]. - The Las Bambas copper mine is identified as a "global resource flagship," with the "Heart of Bambas" strategy expected to stabilize its cash flow [6][5]. - The company is set to benefit from the integration of the Khoemacau copper mine and the expansion of the Kinsevere mine, which are anticipated to enhance copper production and profitability [6][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates as the core international mining platform of China Minmetals, focusing on a diversified portfolio of copper and zinc assets, with operations in Australia, South America, Africa, and North America [5][14]. - The company aims to leverage its expertise in both Chinese and international markets to diversify its resources and products [17]. Las Bambas Copper Mine - The Las Bambas mine, with a 62.5% ownership, is among the top ten copper mines globally, with significant copper reserves [5][18]. - The mine has faced community-related issues affecting production, but the implementation of the "Heart of Bambas" strategy is expected to restore stable cash flow [5][6]. Kinsevere Copper Mine - The Kinsevere mine, fully owned by the company, is transitioning from high-grade oxide ore to sulfide ore, with an expansion project expected to extend its operational life until 2035 [5][6]. Khoemacau Copper Mine - The Khoemacau mine, located in Botswana, is a large, long-life copper mine with significant production potential, aiming to increase its output from 50,000 tons to 130,000 tons by 2028/2029 [5][6]. Australian Zinc Mines - The Dugald River and Rosebery mines provide stable cash flow, with the Dugald River being one of the top ten zinc mines globally, expected to see a 401% increase in EBITDA in 2024 [5][6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $4.48 billion in 2024, growing to $7.91 billion by 2027, with net profits projected to rise from $162 million in 2024 to $1.17 billion in 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [6] Core Insights - The signing of the Chinese Olympic Committee in the first half of 2025 marks the beginning of a new product and marketing cycle for Li Ning, with expectations for improved performance and stock price recovery in the medium to long term [1][14] - The company has faced pressure on its fundamentals due to fluctuations in the consumer environment, with a reported revenue of 14.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year change of +3.3% and -11% respectively [1][15] - The sportswear market is expected to grow, with the Chinese sports apparel market projected to reach 260.2 billion yuan by 2024, and a CAGR of 9% from 2025 to 2029 [2] Company Overview - Li Ning's short-term operations are experiencing fluctuations, but the fundamentals are expected to improve. The company has seen a decline in revenue and net profit since 2022, with a forecasted revenue of 28.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 3 billion yuan for 2024 [15] - The revenue structure is primarily wholesale, with 46% from wholesale, 23% from direct sales, and 29% from e-commerce as of the first half of 2025 [15] Industry Trends - The demand for sports footwear and apparel among residents is resilient, with increasing participation in sports leading to a diversified and professionalized market [2] - The report highlights the importance of the Olympic cycle in enhancing brand strength and increasing sponsorship in niche categories [2] Competitive Positioning - Li Ning is focusing on product optimization and enhancing brand strength during the Olympic cycle, with a significant increase in sponsorship for running and basketball categories [3] - The company is also expanding its outdoor product offerings and enhancing the diversity of its store inventory to drive revenue growth [3] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 2.742 billion yuan, 2.901 billion yuan, and 3.302 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of -9%, +5.8%, and +13.8% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2026, indicating potential for valuation improvement as the company's marketing strategies and product optimizations take effect [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's main brand experienced a slight decline in retail revenue in Q4, while FILA showed mid-single-digit growth. Other brands not included in the new additions recorded a significant growth of 35-40% [2][3]. - The overall performance for 2025 indicates low single-digit growth for the main brand, mid-single-digit growth for FILA, and 45-50% growth for other brands [2][4]. - The company is focusing on maintaining healthy inventory and operational quality, with expectations for continued growth in its multi-brand matrix [4][5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4, the main brand's retail revenue saw a low single-digit decline due to external demand and competitive pressures, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth. Other brands recorded a robust 35-40% growth [2][3]. - For the full year of 2025, the main brand is projected to achieve low single-digit growth, FILA mid-single-digit growth, and other brands 45-50% growth [2]. Operational Analysis - The main brand's Q4 revenue slightly decreased, but the overall annual revenue showed steady growth. The online discount rate narrowed by 2 percentage points to approximately 55% [3]. - FILA's Q4 revenue growth accelerated compared to previous quarters, with offline sales showing high single-digit growth and online sales low double-digit growth [3][4]. - The company is expanding its new store formats, with significant performance from the Champion series and continued international expansion [3][4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.74, 5.06, and 5.70 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [5]. - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantages despite short-term adjustments in operations and retail environments [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The main brand of the company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure, but the mid-term outlook remains positive due to the company's multi-brand international competitiveness [2][9] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts slightly downward for the main brand's revenue growth over the next three years, while also increasing the sales and management expense ratios for 2026 and 2027 [10] - The target price is set at 113.00 HKD, based on a 20x PE valuation for 2026 [3][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2023A: 62,356 - 2024A: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,495 - 2026E: 85,296 - 2027E: 92,805 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 16.2%, 13.6%, 10.8%, 8.7%, 8.8% [4] - Operating Profit (in million RMB): - 2023A: 15,367 - 2024A: 16,595 - 2025E: 18,116 - 2026E: 19,321 - 2027E: 21,369 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 36.8%, 8.0%, 9.2%, 6.6%, 10.6% [4] - Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company (in million RMB): - 2023A: 10,236 - 2024A: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,177 - 2026E: 14,231 - 2027E: 15,931 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 34.9%, 52.4%, -15.5%, 8.0%, 11.9% [4] - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): - 2023A: 3.66 - 2024A: 5.58 - 2025E: 4.71 - 2026E: 5.09 - 2027E: 5.70 [4] - Gross Margin (%): - 2023A: 62.6% - 2024A: 62.2% - 2025E: 61.9% - 2026E: 62.2% - 2027E: 62.5% [4] - Net Margin (%): - 2023A: 16.4% - 2024A: 22.0% - 2025E: 16.8% - 2026E: 16.7% - 2027E: 17.2% [4] - Return on Equity (%): - 2023A: 18.3% - 2024A: 23.4% - 2025E: 17.3% - 2026E: 16.5% - 2027E: 16.2% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - Short-term negative sentiment may persist, but there is optimism about the long-term development trend of the brand globalization [3] - The performance of the two main brands, Anta and Fila, shows contrasting results in Q4 2025, with Anta experiencing a slight decline in retail revenue while Fila saw growth [1][2] - The company is expected to face pressure on profit margins in 2026, influenced by various factors including increased market investment and potential losses from acquisitions [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Anta's retail revenue in Q4 2025 recorded a year-on-year decline of less than 1%, primarily due to weak industry demand and warmer weather [1] - Fila's revenue in Q4 2025 grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, accelerating compared to the previous quarter [1] - Other brands experienced a revenue growth of 35-40% in Q4 2025, with Descente growing by 25-30% and Kolon by 50-55% [1] Future Projections - The management aims for Anta's revenue to achieve positive growth in 2026, supported by adjustments in online operations and store renovations [2] - Fila's operational adjustments are expected to maintain its revenue growth momentum in 2026, while other brands are projected to sustain high double-digit growth, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025 [2] - The company plans to increase marketing investments in 2026, coinciding with major events like the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [2] Financial Estimates - The report maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 but has slightly lowered the net profit expectations for 2026 due to anticipated weaker profit margins [3] - The projected revenue for 2026 is RMB 88.553 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 14.361 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [10][16] - The company's profit margin is expected to face significant pressure in 2026 due to various factors, including potential losses from acquisitions [2][3]