个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 540.00 | 港元 | 583.00↑ | +8.0% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | | AI+应用或在腾讯生态最快落地，上调目标价 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 6.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 157,688 | 222,703 | 244,774 | 268,648 | 289,453 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 16.33 | 23. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 16% year-on-year growth, but reported a net loss of 210 million yuan primarily due to goodwill impairment of 1.1 billion yuan [1][7] - Adjusted net profit, excluding goodwill impairment, was 1.14 billion yuan, showing a 1% increase year-on-year [1][7] - The online reading business stabilized with a revenue of 4.03 billion yuan in 2024, a 2% increase, marking a recovery from previous declines [7] - The company is focusing on high-quality content production, which may extend the development cycle of new projects and increase overall production costs, leading to a forecasted decline in profits in the coming years [7] - The derivative products and other copyright operations are progressing positively, with a 36% year-on-year revenue growth in self-owned copyright operations, excluding the impact of goodwill impairment [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2024 is 8.12 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 1% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 and 2027 [3][8] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 1.28 billion yuan in 2025, with a 12% year-on-year growth, and 1.42 billion yuan in 2026, with an 11% growth [3][8] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.25 yuan in 2025 and 1.38 yuan in 2026 [3][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to decrease from 23 in 2024 to 21 in 2025 and further to 19 in 2026 [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 118.8, indicating a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of HKD 97.9 [2][5]. Core Insights - Despite facing significant pressure on profit margins in the short term, Anta's revenue from its main brand is expected to steadily expand, with other brands maintaining rapid growth. The contribution from Amer Sports is projected to significantly increase, supporting a high growth rate in core net profit by 2025. The multi-brand strategy is anticipated to continue driving overall revenue expansion for the company [1][7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 78,838 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% [9][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from RMB 15,596 million in 2024 to RMB 13,965 million in 2025, indicating a decline of 10.5% [9][13]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 62.5% in 2025, with operating profit margin slightly declining to 23.2% [11][12]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand revenue is expected to grow at a high single-digit percentage in 2025, while Fila is projected to grow in the mid-single digits. Other brands like Descente and Kolon are anticipated to exceed 30% growth [7][8]. - The online sales channel is expected to continue to grow, contributing to the overall revenue but also leading to increased discounting pressures on margins [7][8]. Market Strategy - Anta plans to increase market investments in 2025, focusing on expanding the new retail formats, enhancing overseas market presence, and increasing product launches. The company aims for overseas revenue to account for 15% within five years [7][8]. - The multi-brand strategy is expected to be a key driver for long-term revenue growth, with Descente and Kolon brands showing strong growth momentum [7][8].

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 重申小米的"买入"评级：在 2024 年四季度，小米的收入、经调整 后净利润、经调整后核心业务净利润分别录得人民币 1,090 亿、83 亿、 90 亿元，均取得历史新高，增长强劲。这两年的经营表现充分体现 其公司战略方向和管理层执行力。小米人车家生态闭环，给予公司长 期增长空间。手机、新能源车、IoT 等业务板块均有望取得中国和全 球领先的位置。这将带来公司收入规模的增长和潜在利润的加速释放。 作为行业首推之一，当前小米市盈率为 42.1x，考虑其新能源车增长、 AI 战略定位和多业务板块龙头估值溢价，估值仍然具备上升空间。我 们对于小米长期的价值增长保持较为乐观的判断。 小米集团（1810.HK）：四季度业绩创 历史新高，看好公司长期价值成长 小米 2025 年展望：1）智能手机：我们预期今年出货量有望达 1.8 亿 部以上。受益于上游成本下行、高端化战略、中国国补等，手机毛利 率有改善空间。2）IoT：大家电板块及境外业务拓展将推动该业务板 块收入增长超 20%。3）互联网：得益于用户基数持续增长及结构改 善，互联网业务将保持收入稳定增长及高毛利率水位。4）智能电动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 700 HKD, representing a potential upside of 30% from the current price of 540 HKD [4][7]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q4 2024 revenue reached 172.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11%, exceeding market expectations by 2.3%. The gross margin improved to 52.6%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, with adjusted net profit growing by 30% to 55.3 billion RMB [2][4]. - The report highlights strong performance in domestic gaming, with Q4 2024 revenue up 23% to 33.2 billion RMB, driven by low base effects and healthy performance of flagship games. International gaming revenue also grew by 15% to 16 billion RMB [3][4]. - Tencent is increasing its investment in AI, with Q4 2024 capital expenditure related to AI at 39 billion RMB, and plans to continue this trend in 2025, targeting a capital expenditure of approximately 90 billion RMB [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY23, Tencent reported total revenue of 608.94 billion RMB, with projections for FY24 at 659.62 billion RMB and FY25 at 724.40 billion RMB. Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from 157.61 billion RMB in FY23 to 238.35 billion RMB in FY25 [6][13]. - The report forecasts a steady increase in operating profit, with FY24 projected at 211.79 billion RMB and FY25 at 237.44 billion RMB, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [6][13]. - Key financial ratios indicate an improvement in profitability, with adjusted net profit margin expected to rise from 25.9% in FY23 to 32.9% in FY25 [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 118.8, indicating a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of HKD 97.9 [1][2]. Core Views - Despite facing significant pressure on profit margins in the short term, Anta's revenue from its main brand is expected to steadily expand, with other brands maintaining rapid growth. The contribution from Amer Sports is anticipated to significantly increase, supporting a high growth rate in core net profit by 2025. The multi-brand strategy is expected to continue driving overall revenue expansion for the company [1][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 78,838 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% [9][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from RMB 15,596 million in 2024 to RMB 13,965 million in 2025, indicating a decline of 10.5% [9][13]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 62.5% in 2025, with operating profit margin slightly declining to 23.2% [11][13]. Brand Performance - The management anticipates that the Anta brand's revenue will grow at a high single-digit percentage in 2025, while Fila is expected to see mid-single-digit growth. Other brands like Descente and Kolon are projected to exceed 30% growth [7][15]. - The online sales channel is expected to continue driving revenue growth for Fila, which is projected to contribute 40% of its revenue in 2024, up from 35% in 2023 [7][11]. Market Strategy - Anta plans to increase market investments in 2025, focusing on expanding the new retail format (Super Anta stores), enhancing overseas market presence, and increasing sponsorship for domestic events [7][11]. - The multi-brand strategy is expected to be a key driver for long-term revenue growth, with Descente and Kolon brands contributing 15% of the group's revenue in 2024 [7][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][22][23] Core Insights - The company is experiencing orderly business expansion, with a significant increase in non-property transaction services, which accounted for 34% of total net income in 2024, up 9.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][8][14] - The total transaction volume for 2024 reached 33,494 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, while net income was 935 million, reflecting a 20.2% increase [6][7][12] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be 103.50 billion, with a net profit of 56.97 billion, leading to a valuation range of 62.87-71.44 RMB, equivalent to 68.33-77.65 HKD per share [22][23] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's total revenue was 93,457 million, a 20.2% increase from 2023, while net profit was 4,065 million, down 30.9% year-on-year [5][12][27] - The gross profit margin decreased from 28% in 2023 to 25% in 2024, primarily due to a decline in the contribution margin from the existing housing business [11][27] - The company has implemented a share repurchase plan, spending approximately 7.16 billion USD in 2024, which represents about 3.89% of the total shares issued at the end of 2023 [6][8] Business Segment Performance - The existing housing business generated net income of 28.2 billion in 2024, remaining stable compared to 2023, while the total transaction volume increased by 10.8% to 22,465 billion [6][14] - The new housing business saw net income rise to 33.7 billion, a 10.1% increase, despite a 3.3% decline in total transaction volume [17][21] - The home decoration and furniture business achieved net income of 14.8 billion, a 36.1% increase, driven by synergies with property transactions [18][21] User and Store Metrics - By the end of 2024, the company had 51,573 stores, a 17.7% increase year-on-year, with active agents numbering 499,937, up 16.9% [13][21] - The average monthly active user count remained stable at 43.2 million, indicating consistent user engagement [13][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The valuation of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has lagged behind trading volume, with a recovery in IPOs positively impacting the long-term Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [4][6] - In 2025, the ADT is projected to reach 2200 billion HKD, with a year-on-year increase of 66.9% [4] - The company's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 168, 169, and 172 billion HKD, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.0%, 0.2%, and 2.2% [4] Summary by Sections Market Activity and Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a continuous improvement in activity, with the ADT reaching a historical peak of 2973 billion HKD in February 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 230% [13][14] - The trading volume remained active in March, with figures of 3181 and 2863 billion HKD, showing year-on-year increases of 203% and 152% respectively [13] Regulatory Support for IPOs - Regulatory measures have encouraged A-share companies to list in Hong Kong, enhancing market capitalization and activity [6] - As of February 2025, 10 IPOs have occurred, doubling year-on-year, with a financing scale of 7.8 billion HKD, up 258% [32][34] - The approval process for IPOs has been optimized, facilitating the listing of mainland companies in Hong Kong [36] Financial Projections - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 27,785 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 24.18% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 16,828 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.95% [7] - The sensitivity analysis indicates that an ADT of 1700, 2200, and 3000 billion HKD corresponds to net profit changes of +8%, +29%, and +62% respectively [27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The valuation of Hong Kong Exchanges is lagging behind trading volume, with a recovery in IPOs benefiting the long-term Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [4] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market has been active, with February's ADT reaching a historical peak of HKD 297.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 230% [13] - The company has adjusted its ADT forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 2200 billion, HKD 2000 billion, and HKD 2000 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 66.9%, a decline of 9.1%, and flat growth [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to HKD 16.8 billion, HKD 16.9 billion, and HKD 17.2 billion respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 29.0%, 0.2%, and 2.2% [4] Summary by Sections Market Activity and Trading Settlement Business - The Hong Kong stock market's activity has been improving, with February's ADT reaching a historical peak of HKD 297.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 230% [13] - The trading settlement business, which is highly correlated with ADT, contributed over 53% of the company's revenue in 2024 [5] IPO Recovery and Market Structure - Regulatory support for A-share companies to list in Hong Kong is expected to enhance market capitalization and activity [6] - In the first two months of 2025, there were 10 IPOs in Hong Kong, doubling year-on-year, with a financing scale of HKD 7.8 billion, an increase of 258% [6][32] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be HKD 27.785 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.18% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at HKD 16.828 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 28.95% [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 27.8 times for 2025, compared to a historical average of approximately 37 times over the past decade [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.58 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit of 1.24 billion RMB, up 20.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has successfully divested its KP business, which has alleviated profit drag, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 1.0 percentage points to 9.1% [6] - The main brand, Xtep, and the professional sports brand, Saucony, are focusing on running and retail reform, with significant growth in the professional sports segment [12][13] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown for 2024 shows footwear, apparel, and accessories contributing 59.3%, 38.5%, and 2.2% respectively, with footwear revenue growing by 15.9% [7] - The gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 43.2%, with the professional sports segment's gross margin rising significantly due to acquisitions [8] - Operating profit margin for 2024 was 14.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [11] Retail and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the running segment, with the main brand's running shoes leading in major marathon events [12] - The number of adult stores decreased by 2.9% to 6,382, while the number of children's stores decreased by 7.0% to 1,584 [7] - The company plans to enhance direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies, aiming to reclaim distribution rights for 400-500 stores by late 2025 to 2026 [12] Future Outlook - The company expects steady growth for the main brand in 2025, with Saucony's revenue projected to grow by 30-40% [12] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.50, 0.55, and 0.61 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [12][14]