Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) for Meituan-W (03690 HK) [3] Core Views - Meituan-W reported better-than-expected Q3 2024 results with revenue of RMB 93 6 billion (+22 4% YoY) and Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 12 8 billion (+124% YoY) [4] - Local core commerce revenue grew 20 2% YoY to RMB 69 4 billion with an operating profit margin of 21% (+3 5pct YoY) [4] - New business revenue increased 28 9% YoY to RMB 24 2 billion with a narrowed operating loss of RMB 1 billion (-79 9% YoY) [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 3 376/3 941/4 461 billion in 2024/2025/2026 with Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 43 8/57 0/73 3 billion respectively [4] Business Segment Analysis Food Delivery and Instant Retail - Food delivery and instant retail transaction volume reached 7 077 billion in Q3 2024 with daily orders of 76 93 million (+14 5% YoY) [4] - Delivery revenue grew 21% YoY to RMB 27 8 billion driven by reduced subsidies and increased merchant adoption of delivery services [4] - Flash purchase business saw double-digit growth in user numbers and transaction frequency with faster growth in non-food categories [4] In-Store Hotel and Travel - In-store hotel and travel order volume increased over 50% YoY in Q3 2024 with record high annual transacting users and active merchants [4] - The business achieved rapid growth in lower-tier markets with increased user frequency and new user acquisition [4] - Hotel business maintained stable room night growth with the Shen Membership program becoming a new growth driver [4] New Businesses - New businesses excluding Meituan Select achieved overall profitability in Q3 2024 [4] - Meituan Select continued to narrow losses despite increased cold chain investments [4] - Overseas expansion began with the launch of Keeta in Riyadh in October 2024 [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15 1% from 2024 to 2026 reaching RMB 4 461 billion in 2026 [8] - Non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to improve from 13 0% in 2024 to 16 4% in 2026 [8] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 16 61% in 2024 to 20 45% in 2026 [8] - P E ratio is expected to decline from 21 64x in 2024 to 12 94x in 2026 reflecting earnings growth [4]

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [4] Core Views - Existing school utilization is improving, driving profit growth, while the light-asset model for expansion is expected to drive growth beyond expectations [3] - The market underestimates the company's endogenous growth potential, with the current utilization rate of existing schools at 50%, and the potential to accommodate 160,000 students, driving a CAGR of over 23% in revenue from 2024 to 2027 [3] - The company's high school business is expected to see a 10% improvement in expense ratio from 2024 to 2027, leading to a CAGR of over 28% in adjusted profits [3] - The light-asset model, including托管 (trusteeship) services, is expected to drive rapid expansion, with the potential to contribute an additional revenue of 27 billion yuan in the long term [3] Company Overview - Tianli International Holdings is a leading private education company in China, focusing on K12 education with a strong emphasis on academic performance [22] - The company operates 58 schools across 18 provinces, with a mature school network achieving over 55% first-tier university admission rates and 90% undergraduate admission rates [3] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the founder holding 43% of the shares, and has been actively repurchasing shares since July 2023, demonstrating confidence in future growth [28] - The company has successfully transitioned its business model post-policy changes, focusing on profitable high schools and expanding into comprehensive素养 (quality education) services,游学研学 (study tours), and托管 (trusteeship) services [38] Industry Analysis - Private education serves as an important supplement to public education, especially in the high school segment, where public财政 (fiscal) resources are limited [49] - The政策 (policy) encourages the expansion of优质 (high-quality) high school education, with民办 (private) high schools playing a significant role in补充 (supplementing) public resources [74] - The民办 high school sector has seen rapid growth, with the number of students in民办 high schools increasing at a CAGR of 10% from 2019 to 2023, and the market share rising from 9% in 2010 to 20% in 2023 [74] - The适龄 (school-age) population for high schools is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.2% from 2023 to 2030, with the入学率 (enrollment rate) for普通 (regular) high schools expected to increase, providing opportunities for民办 high schools [78] Business Strategy - The company has adopted a "一干多支" (one trunk, multiple branches) strategy, focusing on profitable high schools as the core business while expanding into multiple ancillary services [82] - The high school segment has shown strong growth, with the number of high school students increasing by 47% in the 2024-2025 academic year, driven by excellent academic performance [84] - The company has developed a comprehensive curriculum and teacher training system, ensuring high-quality education delivery and supporting future growth [90] - The company is expanding its多元 (diverse)升学 (college entrance) services, including艺术 (art),国际 (international), and复读 (repeater) programs, to meet the diverse needs of students [108] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and profit have shown strong growth, with FY2024 revenue increasing by 44% and profit by 66% [38] - The company's毛利率 (gross margin) has stabilized at around 34%, with the净利润率 (net profit margin) recovering to 17% in FY2024 [47] - The company's托管 (trusteeship)业务 (business) is expected to become a second growth curve, with the potential to contribute significantly to future revenue [127]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Meituan's revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 22.4% year-on-year to 93.577 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.73%. The core business and new business revenues were 69.373 billion yuan and 24.204 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 20.25% and 28.91%. Operating profit surged by 307.5% to 13.685 billion yuan, also surpassing expectations by 41.04%. Adjusted net profit rose by 124.0% to 12.829 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10.07% [1][2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 sales expenses increased by 6.20% year-on-year to 17.953 billion yuan, driven by higher advertising, user incentives, and employee compensation. The sales expense ratio decreased by 2.92 percentage points to 19.19% due to improved marketing efficiency. R&D expenses decreased by 0.52% to 5.293 billion yuan, with a R&D expense ratio of 5.66%, down 1.3 percentage points. Management expenses rose by 10.24% to 2.798 billion yuan, primarily due to increased compensation and taxes related to business growth, with a management expense ratio of 2.99%, down 0.33 percentage points [2]. Core Local Business - The core local business revenue grew by 20.2% to 69.373 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg expectations by 1.52%. Operating profit increased by 44.44% to 14.582 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 13.69%, with an operating profit margin of 21.02%, up 3.52 percentage points. The order volume for the delivery business increased by 14.5% to 7.078 billion orders [2][3]. New Business Development - New business revenue grew by 28.91% to 24.204 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 3.90%. Operating loss narrowed by 79.93% to -1.026 billion yuan, better than expectations by 42.41%, with an operating profit margin of -4.24%, up 22.99 percentage points. The Meituan Preferred business saw a reduction in losses due to efficiency improvements and healthy growth [4][10]. Future Projections - Meituan is expected to achieve revenues of 336.898 billion yuan, 389.849 billion yuan, and 446.912 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.74%, 15.72%, and 14.64%. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 41.737 billion yuan, 53.882 billion yuan, and 67.344 billion yuan, with growth rates of 79.49%, 29.10%, and 24.98%, respectively [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company successfully renewed the negotiation for the national medical insurance drug list for Savolitinib, with no price reduction in the recent negotiations. The drug is expected to be submitted for approval in the US by the end of 2024, following positive results from overseas Phase II clinical trials for second-line EGFRm+ MET-driven NSCLC [2] - The overseas sales of Fuzulopatinib continue to grow, and the company anticipates approval for new indications domestically. Fuzulopatinib is the first and only small molecule targeted drug approved for third-line mCRC in the US in the past decade, and it has been included in the NCCN guidelines. The drug has achieved net sales of $200 million overseas in the first three quarters of this year [2] - The potential best-in-class Syk inhibitor, Solitomab, has commenced overseas clinical trials. The number of existing ITP patients in China is expected to exceed 300,000 by 2027, with 67% of patients entering second-line treatment. The competition landscape is favorable due to limited innovative therapies [3] - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are $665 million, $808 million, and $969 million, respectively, with profitability expected in 2025. The company has multiple catalysts in play, and the overseas market is opening up, indicating high growth certainty [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million USD) is projected to be $665.00 in 2024, $808.00 in 2025, and $969.00 in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of -20.64% in 2024, followed by 21.50% in 2025 and 19.93% in 2026 [1][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -$41.78 million in 2024, $48.83 million in 2025, and $178.71 million in 2026, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 216.88% and 265.95% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1][3] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be -$0.05 in 2024, $0.06 in 2025, and $0.21 in 2026 [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for RoboSense (02498 HK) [1] Core Views - RoboSense achieved significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 1 135 billion, a year-on-year increase of 91 5% [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 17 5% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 3 9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - RoboSense has made breakthroughs in the L4 autonomous driving market, securing partnerships with global ride-hailing leader DiDi and Pony ai [1] - The company has expanded its presence in the robotics sector, launching an 8-degree-of-freedom dexterous hand and securing multiple overseas robotics customer contracts [1] Financial Performance - RoboSense reported a gross profit of RMB 170 million in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 375 4% [1] - The company's R&D expense ratio decreased to 41 0% in the first three quarters of 2024, down 20 2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - RoboSense's sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased to 7 4% and 10 5% respectively in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] Market Position - RoboSense holds approximately 35% market share in China's L2 autonomous driving market [1] - The company's total LiDAR sales reached 382 000 units in the first three quarters of 2024, with automotive LiDAR sales accounting for 366 000 units [1] - RoboSense has secured 7 OEM customers for its MX product, a $200 technology democratization solution [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts RoboSense's revenue to reach RMB 1 72 billion in 2024, RMB 2 45 billion in 2025, and RMB 3 53 billion in 2026 [1] - The company is expected to achieve positive net profit in 2026, with projected net profit of RMB 69 million [1] - RoboSense's PS valuation is estimated at 4 5x for 2024, 3 2x for 2025, and 2 2x for 2026 [1] Industry Analysis - LiDAR is expanding beyond automotive applications into robotics and other fields [1] - RoboSense is positioned as a leader in both LiDAR and AI+robotics sectors [1] - The company's inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program in June 2024 enhances its market visibility [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (09896.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.28 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, with an adjusted net profit of 1.928 billion RMB, up 13.7% [2] - The revenue for Q3 2024 was 4.52 billion RMB, reflecting a 19.3% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 686 million RMB, a 6.9% increase [2] - Domestic revenue grew by 9% while overseas revenue surged by 40% in Q3 2024 [2] - The company plans to open 900-1100 new stores globally in 2024, focusing on innovative store formats and expanding in North America [2] Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2024 is 17.177 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 24.12% [4] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 2.815 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 19% [4] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 43.7%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 15.89, 12.98, and 10.43 respectively [4] Operational Insights - The company has successfully expanded its store count to 4,250 in China, with significant growth in high-tier cities [2] - The overseas store count reached 2,936, with a notable increase in North America and Latin America [2] - The company is leveraging IP product innovation and supply chain integration to enhance its market position [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][6] Core Views - JD Group reported Q3 2024 revenue of 260.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The revenue breakdown includes JD Retail at 225 billion yuan, JD Logistics at 44.4 billion yuan, and new businesses at 5 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 6.6%, and -25.7% [2][3] - The operating profit for the quarter was 12 billion yuan, with JD Retail, JD Logistics, and new businesses having operating profit margins of approximately 5.2%, 4.7%, and -12.4% respectively. The non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of about 5.1% [2][3] - The report highlights the continuous expansion of product categories and improvement in profit structure, driven by effective policies such as the trade-in program and the growth of high-margin businesses [3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1,136.3 billion yuan, 1,197.9 billion yuan, and 1,260 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5% for each year. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 41.8 billion yuan, 46.5 billion yuan, and 51.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19%, 11%, and 10% respectively [4][5] - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization of 465.3 billion yuan for JD Group, corresponding to target prices of 40 USD and 157 HKD [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company has successfully returned to the offshore bond market after three years, indicating improved refinancing capabilities and diversified financing channels [2][6] - The company plans to issue up to $300 million in senior unsecured bonds with an initial guidance price set in the 8.875% range, which will help refinance existing offshore debt and improve capital structure and liquidity [6][7] - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 2.15 billion, CNY 3.29 billion, and CNY 4.56 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 55.6%, 53.1%, and 38.8% [6][8] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue is expected to increase from CNY 198.2 billion in 2023 to CNY 267.245 billion in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.5% in 2026 [8] - The company's net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of CNY 832 million in 2022 to a profit of CNY 4.56 billion in 2026, with a net profit margin increasing from -0.5% in 2022 to 1.7% in 2026 [8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from CNY 0.2 in 2023 to CNY 0.6 in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 23.0 in 2023 to 7.0 in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Gushengtang (2273 HK) with a target price of HKD 48 98 [4][14] Core Views - Gushengtang is a leading player in the TCM (Traditional Chinese Medicine) diagnosis and treatment service industry with a strong presence both online and offline [1][3] - The company benefits from favorable policies supporting the TCM industry and the increasing demand for TCM services due to China's aging population [2][12] - Gushengtang's revenue grew from RMB 900 million in 2019 to RMB 2 32 billion in 2023 with adjusted net profit increasing from RMB 77 million to RMB 305 million during the same period [1] - The company's OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) model effectively integrates online and offline services enhancing patient experience and expanding market reach [3][85] Industry Overview - The TCM health industry in China is expected to grow from RMB 12 82 trillion in 2022 to RMB 18 16 trillion in 2025 with a CAGR of 12% [2] - TCM diagnosis and treatment services account for the largest share of the TCM health industry with a market size of RMB 5 76 trillion in 2022 expected to reach RMB 9 89 trillion by 2025 [2][39] - The penetration rate of TCM diagnosis and treatment services is projected to increase from 13 3% in 2019 to 19 6% by 2030 driven by policy support and the aging population [43][46] Company Operations - Gushengtang operates 74 offline clinics as of July 2024 covering major regions in China including East China South China and North China [1] - The company has a robust network of over 37 000 TCM practitioners including 14 000 with senior titles [3] - Membership revenue accounted for 47% of offline revenue in H1 2024 up from 25% in 2020 indicating strong customer loyalty [3][74] - Online business revenue increased to 10% of total revenue in H1 2024 driven by the OMO model and the acquisition of online platforms like Bailu [3][86] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 3 042 million in 2024 to RMB 5 006 million in 2026 with a CAGR of 28% [4][95] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from RMB 409 million in 2024 to RMB 691 million in 2026 [4][95] - The gross margin for the core medical health solutions business is expected to improve from 30 8% in 2024 to 32 3% in 2026 [10][95] Valuation - The report uses both relative and absolute valuation methods to derive a target price of HKD 48 98 [4][14] - Relative valuation based on a PE multiple of 28x suggests a fair value of HKD 51 05 [97] - Absolute valuation using the FCFF method yields a fair value of HKD 46 90 [103] Growth Drivers - Expansion through self-built and acquired clinics is expected to drive market coverage and revenue growth [13][105] - Increasing demand for TCM services due to rising chronic disease prevalence and aging population [13][105] - Potential for further policy support for the TCM industry [13][105]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.804 billion and a net profit of 1.130 billion for FY24/25H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.8% and 23% respectively, driven by successful product category expansions such as sun-protective clothing and lightweight down jackets [1] - The company received government subsidies of 196 million, an increase from 110 million in the same period last year, and reported goodwill impairment losses of 70 million [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.06 HKD per share [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue breakdown for FY24/25H1 shows down jacket/OEM/women's wear/diversified clothing revenues of 6.063 billion, 2.316 billion, 308 million, and 117 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.7%, 13.4%, -21.5%, and 21.3% [2] - The down jacket segment saw revenue contributions from brands such as Bosideng, Xuezhongfei, and Bingjie, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.4%, 47.1%, and 61.5% respectively [2] - Direct sales and wholesale revenues were 2.262 billion and 3.429 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.7% and 12.6% [2] Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin for FY24/25H1 was stable at 49.9%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - Operating profit margin (OPM) and net profit margin were 16.7% and 12.8%, reflecting increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 25.8%, attributed to improved cost control [2] Inventory and Receivables - Inventory increased by 53.4% year-on-year to 5.939 billion, with raw materials accounting for 35% of the total [2] - The inventory turnover days rose to 189 days, an increase of 29 days year-on-year, indicating a strategic shift in supply chain management [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a flexible supply chain management approach, allowing for timely replenishment based on sales performance [6] - New product launches in sun-protective clothing and lightweight down jackets are anticipated to enhance seasonal product offerings [6] - The company maintains a cautious revenue forecast for FY25-27, projecting revenues of 26.5 billion, 30.1 billion, and 34.2 billion respectively [6]