[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 09 月 30 日 证券研究报告•公司动态跟踪报告 持有 （维持） 当前价：2.10 港元 长安民生物流（1292.HK）交通运输 目标价：——港元 国内需求稳定增长，海外物流能力逐步加强 [Table_Summary 事件：9月 25]日，"2024重庆企业 100强""2024重庆服务业企业 100强" 名单发布，长安民生物流连续两年上榜，同时入选"2023—2024 年度西部物流 百强企业"，进一步彰显了经营实力和品牌美誉度。1-8 月累计出口整车 22.9 万台，同比增长 71.41%，累计出口 KD件 10000余台套，同比增长 152.43%； 零部件入厂配送 126.5万辆，整车发运 145.3 万台。 业绩稳步增长。2024年上半年公司实现营业收入 41.65亿元，同比增加 4.54%， 实现归母净利润 2926.01万元，同比增加 4%。分业务来看，整车运输、商品销 售、汽车原材料及零部件供应链管理实现收入分别为 19.24 亿元、8.61 亿元、 13.81 亿元，占集团总收入为 49.19%、20.66%、33.15%。公司保持较高的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for New Oriental Education & Technology Group (9901 HK) with a target price of **HKD 80.00**, implying a potential upside of **25.2%** [2][4] Core Views - New Oriental continues to maintain its leading position in international education, with steady expansion in its education business [2] - The company's education business is expected to achieve a **24% CAGR** in revenue from FY2024 to FY2027, driven by ongoing margin optimization [2] - The offline teaching center expansion is progressing well, with a **6% QoQ increase** in Q1 FY2025, adding **60+ new centers**, primarily in Tier 1 and New Tier 1 cities [2][5] - The education business is valued at **20x P/E** for the 12 months ending February 2026, excluding contributions from Dongfang Zhenxuan [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts Q1 FY2025 Preview - Total revenue is expected to grow **33% YoY** to **USD 1.46 billion**, in line with the company's guidance of **31-34%** [3] - Non-Dongfang Zhenxuan revenue is projected to increase **33% YoY** to **USD 1.247 billion** [3] - Adjusted operating profit is estimated at **USD 320 million**, with an operating margin of **21.9%**, driven by a **2 percentage point improvement** in non-Dongfang Zhenxuan business margins [3] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at **USD 259 million**, with a net margin of **17.7%** [3] Segment Performance - Overseas test preparation revenue is expected to grow **21% YoY**, high school revenue **27%**, university/adult education **26%**, and new businesses **52%** [3] - Gross margin is projected to improve to **58%**, up **2.5 percentage points** from the previous forecast [4] Long-Term Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from **USD 4.314 billion** in FY2024 to **USD 7.646 billion** in FY2027, with a **24% CAGR** [6] - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted to increase from **USD 473 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.196 billion** in FY2027 [6] - Adjusted net profit is projected to rise from **USD 381 million** in FY2024 to **USD 1.043 billion** in FY2027 [6] Industry and Peer Comparison - The report covers multiple companies in the internet and education sectors, with **Buy** ratings for peers like TAL Education (TAL US) and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US) [8] - New Oriental's valuation and growth prospects are highlighted as favorable compared to its peers in the education sector [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" [3][5]. Core Views - The adjustment of agency deposit rates is expected to significantly enhance profits by approximately 17%, with a projected reduction in agency fees by 13% to 100.6 billion yuan, resulting in a savings of 15.1 billion yuan [1][5]. - The new pricing scheme for agency fees will be linked to revenue growth, which is anticipated to stabilize the cost-to-income ratio in the long term and support steady profit growth [5][6]. - The bank's unique partnership with the postal system provides a strong deposit absorption capability, mitigating the impact of the fee reduction on deposit levels [5][6]. Summary by Sections Agency Fee Rate Adjustment - The agency fee rates for various deposit types have been significantly reduced, with the overall average rate dropping from 1.24% to 1.08%, a decrease of 16 basis points [1][8]. - Specific reductions include: - Demand deposits from 2.33% to 1.992% - Time deposits (1 year) from 1.10% to 0.999% - 2-year deposits from 0.35% to 0.149% - 3-year deposits from 0.10% to 0.020% [1][8]. Financial Projections - For 2023, the bank's total agency fees are projected to be 115.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% despite a decrease in the average fee rate [2][6]. - The bank's net profit for 2024 is estimated at 88.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [6][7]. Cost-to-Income Ratio - The cost-to-income ratio for 2023 is reported at 64.82%, with expectations for improvement following the fee adjustments [5][7]. - The bank aims to align the growth of agency fees with revenue growth, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 87.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.8% from the current price of HKD 69.15 [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the approval of two new indications for the company's products, significantly expanding its commercial portfolio into non-oncology areas. The approval of the drug 开坦尼 for first-line treatment of gastric cancer is expected to greatly increase its potential patient population, with an estimated peak sales forecast adjustment to RMB 5.2 billion. Additionally, the approval of AK102 for primary hypercholesterolemia and mixed dyslipidemia is noted as a strong competitive advantage in the market [1][2]. - Recent clinical data releases from major conferences such as ESMO and EADV have shown promising results for the company's products, particularly for IL-17 古莫奇单抗 in treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis and for the drug 依沃西 in various solid tumors, which may enhance the clinical application and extend the product lifecycle [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been increased by 6-10% due to the recent approvals and positive clinical developments. The new revenue estimates are RMB 2,849 million for 2024, RMB 4,786 million for 2025, and RMB 6,465 million for 2026, reflecting significant growth compared to previous forecasts [4][5]. - The company is expected to report a net profit of RMB 786 million in 2025 and RMB 1,880 million in 2026, indicating a recovery from losses in 2024 [4][5]. - The DCF valuation model suggests a fair value of HKD 87.0 per share, supported by anticipated catalysts such as the outcomes of insurance negotiations and the approval of new indications [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China National Aviation (China National Airlines) [2][7]. Core Views - The aviation demand shows resilience, and supply-demand dynamics are expected to continue recovering. The company is projected to see a significant increase in profitability as supply-demand conditions improve [6][7]. - The report anticipates a net profit of -2.8 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, indicating a continued reduction in losses compared to the previous year [7]. - The company is adjusting its net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 0.8 billion and 6.1 billion RMB respectively, while introducing a new forecast of 15 billion RMB for 2026 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to rise from 52.9 billion RMB in 2022 to 141.1 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a 167% increase. Projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 169.9 billion, 182.5 billion, and 199.1 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 20%, 7%, and 9% [5]. - Gross profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of 29.9 billion RMB in 2022 to a profit of 7.1 billion RMB in 2023, with further increases to 10.8 billion, 19.8 billion, and 31.8 billion RMB in the following years [5]. - Net profit is projected to shift from a loss of 38.6 billion RMB in 2022 to a loss of 1.0 billion RMB in 2023, followed by profits of 0.8 billion, 6.1 billion, and 14.9 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its high-quality flight network, which is expected to enhance long-term value despite short-term pressures [7]. - The report highlights that the company’s fleet size has increased by 14% compared to 2019, with a 5% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK), although recovery in wide-body aircraft operations remains slow [7]. - The strategic acquisition of Shandong Airlines is expected to bolster the company’s market position, enhancing its operational capabilities and profitability potential [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is initiating a significant asset restructuring, aiming to enhance its position as a clean energy leader by acquiring shares in Yuanda Environmental through its hydroelectric assets [3]. - The restructuring aligns with national policies promoting state-owned enterprise reforms and capital market improvements, capitalizing on a favorable regulatory environment [3]. - Following the restructuring, the company will establish a red-chip structure, with Yuanda Environmental serving as the platform for integrating hydroelectric assets, while the company will operate as a comprehensive clean energy platform [3][4]. - The company’s valuation is currently at a low price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.76, suggesting potential undervaluation in the market, especially in light of recent capital increases from institutional investors [4][3]. - The earnings forecast for the company remains strong, with projected net profits of 48.1 billion, 56.6 billion, and 64.1 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 8, and 7 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is part of the State Power Investment Corporation and is focused on integrating its coal, hydro, and renewable energy assets to create a leading clean energy platform [3][4]. Financial Data - As of September 30, 2024, the company's closing price is HKD 3.71, with a market capitalization of HKD 459 billion and a PB ratio of 0.76 [2]. - The total assets amount to 325,581 million RMB, with net assets of 100,271 million RMB, translating to a net asset value per share of 4.46 RMB [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 44,262 million RMB in 2023 to 58,543 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [5]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly, with a forecasted growth rate of 80.8% in 2024 compared to 2023 [5].

[Table_StockNameRptType] 联想集团（00992） 港股深度 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

吉利汽车（0175.HK）系列点评十四 新能源销量亮眼 极氪+银河新品周期强劲 2024 年 10 月 02 日 ➢ 事件概述：公司发布 9 月销量公告，9 月批发总销量 20.2 万辆，同比+18.5%， 环比+11.4%；1-9 月累计 149.0 万辆，同比+29.4%。其中，9 月新能源销量 91,134 辆，同比+69.7%，环比+20.7%，渗透率 45.1%；1-9 月新能源销售 54.6 万辆，同比+82.0%。 分品牌看：吉利品牌 9 月销量 15.5 万辆（银河 29,047 辆），1-9 月累计 115.1 万辆（银河 15.4 万辆），同比+249.8%；极氪 9 月销量 21,333 辆，1-9 月累计 142,873 辆，同比+81.0%；领克 9 月销量 25,803 辆，1-9 月销售 195,603 辆， 同比+39.9%。 ➢ 9 月批发强劲 新能源表现亮眼。受银河、极氪品牌新品上量及出口强劲增 长驱动，公司整体批发销量表现强劲，批发总销量 20.2 万辆，同比+18.5%，环 比+11.4%。受益银河 E5 销量提升、极氪改款后需求恢复，新能源销量表现强 劲，9 月公司新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China Eastern Airlines [2][4]. Core Views - The airline industry is recovering in 2024, with China Eastern Airlines leading in the recovery of international routes and achieving a basic recovery in fleet turnover and passenger load factor during the summer travel season. The report anticipates an upward trend in profitability as industry supply and demand recover, alongside market-driven ticket pricing and a gradual reduction in capacity growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -2.8 billion RMB, continuing to reduce losses year-on-year. The fleet size has increased by nearly 13% compared to 2019, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growing by 10%. The daily aircraft utilization and passenger load factor are close to 2019 levels. Passenger revenue has increased by 3% compared to 2019, while seat revenue has grown by 1% [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The summer travel demand remains strong, with passenger traffic increasing by nearly 18% compared to 2019, and over 12% year-on-year, setting a new historical high. The company is actively restoring international routes, particularly to Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and Australia, with international ASK showing positive growth compared to 2019 [4][6]. Future Outlook - The report projects a downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 200 million RMB and 4.67 billion RMB, respectively, while introducing a new net profit forecast of 8.8 billion RMB for 2026. The company is expected to continue its capacity reduction planning despite having a substantial order book for new aircraft, which aligns with the long-term constraints of China's airspace [4][6].

Company Rating - Buy/Buy rating for NetEase (NTES.O) and NetEase-S (09999.HK) with a current price of $86.98/133.10 HKD and a fair value of $132.34/206.01 HKD [1] Core Views - NetEase reported 24Q2 revenue of 254.9 billion RMB, a YoY increase of 6% but a QoQ decrease of 5% [2] - Gross margin improved by 3.08 percentage points to 62.9% in 24Q2 [2] - GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.759 billion RMB, while Non-GAAP net profit was 7.819 billion RMB, with a Non-GAAP net margin of 30.68% [2] - Game-related value-added services revenue reached 200.56 billion RMB, a YoY increase of 6.7%, with mobile games contributing 76.4% of online game revenue [2] - New games such as "World Beyond," "Naraka: Bladepoint Mobile," and "Marvel Duel" contributed to performance growth [2] - The company has a strong pipeline of games, including "Marvel Rivals" and "Where Winds Meet," expected to launch within the year [2] Business Performance - Mobile games revenue grew by 16.06% YoY to 147.25 billion RMB, while PC games revenue slightly declined by 0.05% to 45.49 billion RMB [2] - Classic mobile games like "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Identity V" maintained strong performance, with "Identity V" showing significant improvement in revenue rankings [2][9] - NetEase's Youdao segment reported a 9.54% YoY increase in revenue to 1.322 billion RMB, with a focus on AI+education driving future growth [11] - Cloud Music's H1 revenue reached 4.07 billion RMB, exceeding expectations, with a 48% YoY increase in gross profit and a 176% YoY increase in net profit [12] Financial Projections - NetEase's total revenue is projected to be 1.09 trillion RMB in 2024, 1.225 trillion RMB in 2025, and 1.336 trillion RMB in 2026 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 33.3 billion RMB in 2024, 37.2 billion RMB in 2025, and 40.7 billion RMB in 2026 [2] - The SOTP valuation method yields a fair value of $132.34 per ADS (US) and 206.01 HKD per share (HK) [2] Game Pipeline and Strategy - NetEase has a robust game pipeline, including "Marvel Rivals" and "Where Winds Meet," which are expected to launch within the year [2] - The return of Blizzard games in China is expected to provide additional support to the PC gaming segment [2] - Long-term growth is supported by the company's strong R&D capabilities and its ability to consistently produce high-quality games [2] Segment Valuation - The gaming segment is valued at 574.5 billion RMB based on a 20x PE multiple [16] - Youdao is valued at 3.1 billion RMB with a 1x PS multiple [17] - Cloud Music is valued at 13.2 billion RMB with a 16x PE multiple [18] - The total SOTP valuation for NetEase is 596.6 billion RMB, translating to $850 billion USD or 661.5 billion HKD [18]