市公司 型 ( 2025 年 12 月 23 日 (06110) 三季度基本符合预期,经营指标健康,需求仍待回暖 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 ar (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.12 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8939.68 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币) | 4.13/2.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 193.48 | | 流通 H 股 (百万股) | 6,201.22 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9068 | -年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位:人民币 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(亿元) | 289.3 | 270.1 | 252.7 | 266.2 | 282.7 | | 同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported third-quarter operational data for FY26, which was generally in line with expectations, with retail and wholesale sales experiencing a high single-digit decline year-on-year [7] - Retail performance outpaced wholesale, with online sales outperforming offline sales. The decline in retail was mitigated by a low base effect from the previous year, while online growth slowed due to a high base [7] - Inventory levels remain healthy, with a stable discount rate year-on-year. The total inventory decreased, and the company is focused on maintaining a healthy inventory turnover [7] - The core brand is enhancing product innovation and retail capabilities while increasing inventory recovery efforts. Collaborations with key retailers aim to optimize online market management and address pricing inconsistencies in the industry [7] - The company is expected to significantly reduce store closures compared to FY25, with a slight decrease in direct store sales area [7] - Retail demand has weakened since the fourth quarter, posing challenges to achieving annual guidance, although the company is still working towards this goal [7] - The company focuses on high-quality growth in sports apparel retail, with a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts for FY26-28 [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 28.93 billion RMB (7% growth) - FY2025: 27.01 billion RMB (7% decline) - FY2026E: 25.27 billion RMB (6% decline) - FY2027E: 26.62 billion RMB (5% growth) - FY2028E: 28.27 billion RMB (6% growth) [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2024: 2.21 billion RMB (21% growth) - FY2025: 1.29 billion RMB (42% decline) - FY2026E: 1.25 billion RMB (3% decline) - FY2027E: 1.39 billion RMB (11% growth) - FY2028E: 1.51 billion RMB (9% growth) [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 41.8% in FY2024, declining to 38.4% in FY2025, and gradually improving to 40.0% by FY2028 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][6] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in the shipment of power batteries, with a market share of 4.7% in the global power battery market as of January to October 2025, showing a continuous year-on-year increase. In October, the company surpassed LG Energy in monthly installations, marking its entry into the global top three [4][7]. - The company is diversifying its customer base and expanding globally, with significant partnerships in the passenger vehicle sector with companies like XPeng, Leap Motor, GAC, and Changan, as well as in the commercial vehicle sector with clients such as Geely, Chery, and others [4][7]. - The company is also seeing rapid growth in energy storage battery shipments, with expectations to reach approximately 45 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 75%. The company is enhancing its product offerings and expanding its international presence [5][8]. Summary by Sections Power Battery Segment - The company is projected to achieve nearly 70 GWh in power battery shipments in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 50%. The company is focusing on global diversification and has secured orders from leading overseas passenger vehicle clients [4][6][7]. Energy Storage Segment - The company is one of the earliest to mass-produce 314Ah cells and is continuously optimizing its product lineup. It has established deep collaborations with major clients like Sungrow and CRRC Zhuzhou, while also expanding its overseas footprint in regions like Saudi Arabia and Europe [5][8]. Financial Projections - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to fluctuations in shipment structures, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised due to positive impacts from storage and commercial vehicle demand. Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.215 billion, 2.675 billion, and 3.904 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 106%, 120%, and 46% [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175.HK) [1] Core Views - The completion of the privatization of Zeekr enhances profits and promotes strategic integration, expected to increase net profit by 2-3 billion RMB in 2026 [1] - The company is in a strong new product cycle with high hit rates for new models, including the Galaxy A7 and Galaxy M9, which are expected to maintain strong sales [1] - Sales growth combined with a shift towards higher-end models is anticipated to significantly boost profits, with projected net profit margins increasing to 6.4% by 2027 [1] - Geely is considered a top pick for the upcoming recovery in the automotive sector due to its low valuation and strong growth potential [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 241,099 million RMB, 349,740 million RMB, 448,010 million RMB, and 496,572 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.5%, 45.1%, 28.1%, and 10.8% [1] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 16,632 million RMB, 18,645 million RMB, 26,296 million RMB, and 31,749 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 213.3%, 12.1%, 41.0%, and 20.7% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.65 RMB, 1.74 RMB, 2.45 RMB, and 2.96 RMB for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 9, 9, 6, and 5 for the same years [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.82 [1][5][11] Core Insights - The company has successfully licensed its SIM0613 (LRRC15 ADC) to France's Ipsen for an upfront payment of USD 45 million and a total deal value of USD 1.06 billion, marking the third licensing deal in 2025 and indicating the company's innovative drug pipeline is entering a monetization phase [1][2] - The SIM0613 ADC platform shows significant potential, with advantages demonstrated in preclinical models and no direct competitors in clinical stages, positioning it as a potential first-in-class (FIC) product globally [2][3] - The company is accelerating its global pipeline expansion, with multiple products and technology platforms poised for overseas exploration, including promising candidates in autoimmune and oncology fields [3][4] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB 1.18 billion, RMB 1.40 billion, and RMB 1.52 billion respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [5][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are RMB 0.45, RMB 0.54, and RMB 0.59, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to be 33.19x for 2026 [5][11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales for FY2026Q3, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The retail environment remains volatile, with pressures from store closures and competition affecting offline sales [1] - E-commerce sales are expected to continue growing due to the company's strong operational capabilities and enhanced digital marketing strategies [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its brand portfolio in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with various brands to meet diverse consumer needs [2] - The overall revenue is projected to decline by 7% and net profit by approximately 4% for FY2026, influenced by the current consumer environment and inventory management [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY2026 is estimated at 25,062 million, a decrease of 7.2% year-on-year [4] - Net profit for FY2026 is projected at 1,229 million, down 4.4% year-on-year [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is expected to be 0.20 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY2026 is estimated at 14.3 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.6% for FY2026 [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading mid-priced beverage enterprise in China, focusing on high-quality, affordable drinks. Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 2.2 billion in 2022 to CNY 3.28 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 22% [1][2]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is valued at over CNY 510 billion in 2023, with sustained double-digit growth. The market for freshly brewed coffee and tea is expected to grow significantly, indicating ample room for expansion [1][2]. - The company has launched over 300 new products and established a robust supply chain, contributing to its rapid store expansion from 5,307 in 2022 to 9,176 by 2024 [1][2]. Company Overview - The company, known as "沪上阿姨," has evolved from a local brand to a national leader in the ready-to-drink tea market, with a focus on high cost-performance products. It operates under three brand matrices: "沪上阿姨," "沪咖," and "茶瀑布," catering to various price segments [10][11]. - The company has experienced significant growth, with its store count increasing from 5,307 in 2022 to 9,176 in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 31.5% [28][31]. Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is expanding rapidly, with a projected market size of CNY 1 trillion by 2028. The mid-price segment is expected to capture the largest market share, driven by consumer preferences for quality and affordability [1][2]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the ready-to-drink beverage market, particularly in lower-tier cities where market penetration remains low [1][2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for the company are CNY 4 billion in 2025, CNY 4.6 billion in 2026, and CNY 5.5 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits of CNY 505 million, CNY 578 million, and CNY 694 million [2][20]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong operating capability and market share, justifying a valuation premium with projected P/E ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of 5.7 out of 10 for the IPO of the company, suggesting a recommendation for subscription based on the potential growth in AI computing demand and the company's strong technological barriers and order reserves [16]. Core Insights - The company focuses on general-purpose graphics processing unit (GPGPU) chips and intelligent computing solutions, which are critical for AI model training and inference, positioning itself as a key player in the AI infrastructure market [1]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 3.37 billion in 2024 and RMB 589 million in the first half of 2025, supported by a strong order backlog totaling RMB 20.63 billion [2][5]. - The Chinese intelligent computing chip market is expected to reach USD 50.4 billion by 2025, indicating substantial growth potential for the company, which aims to capture approximately 0.2% of the market share [3][9]. Company Overview - The company has developed a complete solution comprising hardware systems and software platforms, including PCIe cards, OAM modules, and servers, which enhance energy efficiency in data centers [2]. - The company is the first in China to adopt 2.5D chip packaging technology for dual AI computing bare chips, showcasing its advanced technological capabilities [1][4]. - The company holds a robust patent portfolio with 613 patents granted and 972 pending, indicating strong technical reserves [4]. Industry Status and Prospects - The market is characterized by a concentration of leading players, with the top two companies holding 94.4% of the market share, providing a unique competitive space for the company [3]. - The domestic competition in the intelligent computing chip sector is expected to grow, with local companies projected to increase their market share from 20% in 2024 to 60% by 2029, benefiting the company as a local core enterprise [9]. Advantages and Opportunities - The company has a strong technical barrier and iterative capability, with a high proportion of R&D personnel (83%) and significant investment in R&D, exceeding 70% of total operating expenses from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The company has a solid order reserve, with 24 unfulfilled binding orders valued at RMB 822 million and additional sales agreements worth RMB 1.241 billion, indicating strong revenue certainty for the future [5]. Commercialization Progress - The company has begun generating revenue from its intelligent computing solutions in 2023, with a steady increase in customer quality, moving from small trial customers to leading enterprises in the ICT and data center sectors [2][5]. - The company operates under a fabless model, focusing on core design and solution integration, allowing for flexible supply chain responses to customer needs [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company [2] Core Insights - The company develops General-Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) chips and AI computing solutions, providing essential computational power for artificial intelligence (AI) [2] - The company's GPGPU-based solutions have strong performance and efficiency in training and inference of large language models (LLMs), giving it a competitive edge in the domestic market [2] - The Chinese smart computing chip market is expected to reach USD 50.4 billion by 2025, with the company aiming for a market share of approximately 0.2% [2] - The global smart computing chip market is projected to grow from USD 6.6 billion in 2020 to USD 119 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.0% [2] - The company’s revenue for 2022 to 2024 is projected to be RMB 0.5 million, RMB 62.03 million, and RMB 336.8 million, with net losses of RMB -1,474.31 million, RMB -1,743.95 million, and RMB -1,538.1 million respectively [2] - The GPGPU market has significant long-term growth potential and is currently in a rapid development phase [2] - The company's Hong Kong IPO valuation is approximately 117 times price-to-sales (PS) for 2024, leading to a recommendation for cautious subscription due to unclear profitability timeline [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to Hesai Technology (02525.HK) with a target price of HKD 235.93, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current price of HKD 175.10 [3][9]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology is a leading global developer and manufacturer of LiDAR technology, with a comprehensive product matrix covering ADAS, autonomous driving, and robotics markets. The company has achieved significant milestones, including being the first to deliver over 10,000 units of LiDAR in a month and achieving Non-GAAP profitability in 2024 [6][14]. - The report highlights the expected rapid growth in the LiDAR market, driven by the increasing adoption of L2+/L3/L4 regulations, with projections indicating that the global automotive LiDAR market could reach USD 9 billion by 2030 and USD 14.8 billion by 2035 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hesai Technology was founded in 2014 and has established itself as a leader in the LiDAR industry, focusing on high-performance products. The company has developed eight major product series, including AT, ET, FT, Pandar, OT, XT, QT, and JT, catering to various applications in the automotive and robotics sectors [6][21]. - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues of CNY 2.08 billion in 2024, growing to CNY 5.82 billion by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.4% [2][9]. LiDAR Industry - The LiDAR market is expected to expand rapidly, with the domestic installation of LiDAR units projected to reach 2.5 million by 2025, achieving a penetration rate of 9.0%. The report notes that the price of LiDAR units is expected to decrease to around CNY 1,450, which will further drive market growth [6][7]. - The report identifies key technological advancements in LiDAR, including the transition to mixed solid-state and full solid-state technologies, which are anticipated to enhance performance and reduce costs [7][8]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes Hesai's competitive advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, a leading manufacturing system, and a diverse customer base that includes major players in the ADAS and robotics sectors. The company has secured significant contracts with top automotive manufacturers and is recognized as a preferred supplier for leading Robotaxi companies [6][8][9]. - The expected growth in the robotics LiDAR market is highlighted, with projections indicating that the market for robotic LiDAR solutions could grow from USD 600 million in 2024 to USD 5.1 billion by 2029, representing a CAGR of 56% [8][9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Hesai's net profit will turn positive in 2025, reaching CNY 358 million, and is expected to grow to CNY 887 million by 2027. Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase significantly, from CNY 478 million in 2025 to CNY 995 million in 2027 [2][9]. - The valuation is based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of CNY 33.4 billion [9].