2026 年 2 月 1 日 行业研究 地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度 ——石油化工行业周报第 438 期（20260126—20260201） 要点 地缘局势紧张抬升油价，预计 26 年油价或在 60-80 美元/桶区间宽幅震荡。 本周伊朗地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，布伦特、WTI 原油期货价格分别报收 69.83、65.74 美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨 6.7%、7.3%。全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治 的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。此外，考虑到：（1）美国页岩油边际 成本高企，25Q1 调查边际成本约为 65 美元/桶，有望成为原油供给端边际减 量；（2）OPEC+于 26Q1 暂缓增产，体现其平衡油价诉求，长期来看 OPEC+ 各国财政依赖原油销售收入，中高油价诉求有望持续；（3）26 年原油需求预 期向好，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油需求增长 93 万桶/日，高于 2025 年的 85 万桶/日。我们认为油价未来将在 60-80 美元区间宽幅震荡，油价中高位运行 有望为石化板块景气奠定基础。 全球深 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong price support from factories, with solid methionine prices rebounding [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products are provided, showing fluctuations in pricing and profitability across different segments [2]. - The report identifies key listed companies in the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and others [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The report includes a weekly overview of the basic chemical index trends, indicating overall market movements [10]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported as 17,543, 13,864, and 14,085 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -171, -36, and +110 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 4,171, 1,493, and 2,363 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -332, -196, and -15 CNY/ton [2]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are reported as 1,416, 4,349, 520, and 4,074 CNY/ton respectively, with increases of +147, +52, +0, and +171 CNY/ton [2]. - The average price for polyethylene is 7,162 CNY/ton, showing a rise of +62 CNY/ton [2]. - The theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene production are reported as 694, 1,438, and -245 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -161, +41, and -127 CNY/ton [2]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,184, 1,745, 3,962, and 2,579 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -27, +5, +68, and -21 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 199, 72, -92, and 445 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -21, +1, +10, and -8 CNY/ton [2]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - Average prices for VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine are reported as 61.5, 55.1, 17.9, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with changes of -0.7, +0.6, +0.3, and +0.0 CNY/kg [2].

| [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-01 | [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 5 期） 25 年行业利润下降 42%，26 年盈利有望改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from the "dual carbon" policy implementation [5]. Core Insights - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to significantly impact the chemical industry, with a focus on carbon emissions control becoming a rigid constraint during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][14]. - The report identifies that the attention towards "dual carbon" from provincial leaders has increased by 137% since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards carbon emissions as a critical performance metric [7][18]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo structural changes, with high carbon intensity sectors facing supply constraints, while low-carbon leaders are expected to benefit from the transition [8][30]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan": Carbon Peak Closing Battle - Local carbon assessments may treat carbon emissions as an equally important rigid constraint [15]. - High carbon intensity sectors such as ammonia fertilizer, coal chemical, and chlorine-alkali are likely to face capacity constraints first [29][30]. 2. Petrochemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to undergo a transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand structures [38]. - Refining sector dynamics are shifting towards improved supply-demand balance due to stringent approval processes for new projects and the elimination of high-energy-consuming capacities [38]. 3. Basic Chemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - Coal chemical industry is projected to stabilize supply under carbon limits, driving quality improvements in the sector [3.1]. - Carbon fiber and fluorochemical sectors are expected to benefit from process optimization and green transitions [3.2][3.3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of leading companies: 1. Integrated leaders in the oil chemical sector with scale and efficiency advantages [8]. 2. Coal chemical leaders with advanced processes and low emissions [8]. 3. High-quality firms in fluorochemical and carbon fiber sectors that align with "dual carbon" goals [8].

截至2026年1月30日 11:20，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌2.55%。成分股方面涨跌互现，恩捷股份领 涨4.25%，瑞丰新材上涨0.34%，宝丰能源上涨0.25%；华峰化学领跌，和邦生物、藏格矿业跟跌。 长期以来，传统化工行业因无序扩产导致产能严重过剩，成为压制盈利的核心症结。2025–2026年，供 给端迎来根本性变革：国家出台《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，明确遏制盲目投 资、推动落后产能有序退出，各地配套政策同步落地。在此引导下，行业自发开启"反内卷"模式——企 业主动安排装置检修、收缩低效产能。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证细分化工产业主题指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、盐湖股 份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、巨化股份、恒力石化、华鲁恒升、宝丰能源、云天化、金发科技，前十大权 重股合计占比45.31%。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金(013527)关注化工板块投资机遇。 国海证券指出，展望2026年，中国化工行业推行反内卷，化工有望迎来景气上行周期 ...

截至2026年1月30日10:02，中证石化产业指数下跌1.41%。成分股方面涨跌互现，东方盛虹、宝丰能源、华鲁恒升等领涨；华峰化学、和邦生物、盐湖股份 等领跌。石化ETF(159731)下跌1.42%。流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手13.12%，成交1.98亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至1月29日，石化ETF近1周 日均成交2.63亿元。 石化ETF紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证石化产业指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、中国石油、中国石化、盐湖股 份、中国海油、藏格矿业、巨化股份、恒力石化、华鲁恒升、宝丰能源，前十大权重股合计占比56.73%。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近17天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"11.86亿元。石化ETF最新份额达14.35亿份，最新规模达15.10亿元，创新高。 天风证券表示，化工行业2025年政策、资本开支拐点已现；"反内卷"的提出提供了对后续行业盈利改善、长期走向更健康发展的预期。 截至1月29日，石化ETF近2年净值上涨68.09%。从收益能力看，截至2026年1月29日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86% ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share liquor sector experienced a significant surge, with a rise of 9.68% on January 29, leading the market performance for the day [1][2] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector also saw a notable increase of 8.18%, with a total transaction volume of 32.31 billion [2] - The precious metals sector rose by 8.04%, with a transaction volume of 70.62 billion, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 2: Energy and Petrochemical Sector Dynamics - The energy and petrochemical sector's rise began in early January 2026, with domestic crude oil futures rebounding from 411 yuan/barrel to 475 yuan/barrel, a 15% increase [4] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector has accumulated a remarkable increase of 44.22% year-to-date, ranking second in market performance, only behind precious metals [7] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown a cumulative increase of 14.71% since the beginning of the year, reflecting strong investor interest [9] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The recent surge in the petrochemical sector is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, raising concerns over oil supply stability [11] - The market has priced in a risk premium of $3-8 per barrel due to fears of potential disruptions in oil supply from Iran, which produces approximately 3.3 million barrels per day [11] - The classic rotation pattern in commodity markets, where precious metals lead, followed by industrial metals and then energy, is being validated again [14][16] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to gain market attention as commodity prices rise, driven by increased costs in agricultural production due to higher energy prices [17][24] - The CPI and food prices have shown signs of recovery, with the CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential shift in consumer price dynamics [18] - The agricultural ETF (516810) tracks a comprehensive index covering the entire agricultural value chain, which may benefit from the rising commodity prices [26] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry is at a turning point, with new policies aimed at preventing excessive competition and improving profitability [22] - The capital expenditure ratios in the refining and chemical sectors are showing a trend towards conservatism, indicating a strategic shift among companies [23] - The anticipated recovery in the petrochemical sector is supported by both geopolitical factors and the broader commodity market dynamics, suggesting a favorable outlook for industry leaders [24][25]

昨天，整个市场有超过3600只股票是下跌的，大盘走得摇摇晃晃。 但就在这种让人提不起精神的行情里，有一批股票却像坐了火箭。 更关键的是，这批暴 涨的股票背后，站着同一个"超级主力"——全国社保基金。 回顾2025年的表现，社保基金被证明是市场上最"聪明"的钱之一。 全年，社保基金的持仓组合里，跑出了59只股价翻倍的股票，其中有16只股票的涨幅甚 至超过了200%。 在很多人抱怨赚钱难的年份里，社保基金的投资组合却取得了稳健的回报。 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-03-31 | 2024-12-31 | | 2024-09-30 | 该股票最热门的概念 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 前十大流通股东累计持有A、H流通股:109.76亿股,累计占A、H流通股比:64.14%,较上期减少2.58亿股 | | | | | | | | 机构或基金名称 | | | 持有数量(股) | 持股变化(股) | 占流通股比例 | 变动比例 | | 中国铝业集团有限公司 | | | 52.35亿 | 不变 | 30.60% | 不变 ...

买入（维持） 新项目提升竞争力，继续推进规模扩张 宝丰能源（600989）深度报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 分析师：苏治彬 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523080001 电话：0769-22110925 邮箱： suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn | 主要数据 2026 年 | 1 | 月 | 28 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | 23.82 | | | | 总市值（亿元） | | 1,746.81 | | | | 总股本(亿股) | | 73.33 | | | | 流通股本(亿股) | | 73.33 | | | | ROE（TTM） | | 23.39% | | | | 12 月最高价(元) | | 24.13 | | | | 12 月最低价(元) | | 13.28 | | | 股价走势 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 度 研 究 公 司 研 究 证 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the chemical materials sector is experiencing a shift from a "cost-sensitive" model to a "structural growth" model, driven by policies on carbon emissions, global energy transitions, and domestic manufacturing recovery [1] - The China Securities Index shows that the chemical industry index rose by 7.29% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.91 percentage points, with all 24 sub-industries within the sector recording gains [1] - The implementation of a dual control system for carbon emissions in China marks a new phase in institutionalizing green and low-carbon development, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity in high-energy-consuming and high-emission chemical sub-industries [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., and Cangge Mining, with these stocks collectively accounting for 45.31% of the index [2] - The chemical ETF managed by Harvest (159129) closely tracks the China Securities Index for the chemical industry, focusing on the new round of prosperity cycle against the backdrop of "anti-involution" in the industry [2] - Investors can also explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector through the chemical ETF linked fund (013527) [3]