证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 2025年12月24日 牧业大周期更新点评 重视牧业大周期反转，肉奶联动有望打开成长空间 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | | 农林牧渔  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 鲁家瑞 | 021-61761016 | lujiarui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520110002 | | 证券分析师： | 李瑞楠 | 021-60893308 | liruinan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523030001 | | 证券分析师： | 江海航 | | jianghaihang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070003 | 事项： 据农业农村部统计，截至 2025 年 12 月 18 日，国内主产区牛肉均价为 65.73 元/kg，较年初低点累计上涨 16%；主产区生鲜乳均价为 3.02 元/kg，较年初累计下跌约 3%；肉奶比（牛肉价格/生鲜乳价格）已接近 22，创历史新高。 国信农业观点：1） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU dairy imports, which is expected to accelerate domestic product substitution and stabilize raw milk prices. The policy will impose temporary countervailing measures on EU dairy products starting December 23, 2025, with subsidy rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [2][8]. - The policy targets high-fat dairy products, particularly cheese and cream, which have a high dependency on imports. This is expected to significantly increase the cost of EU products, thereby enhancing the price advantage for domestic manufacturers [8]. - The domestic dairy processing industry has historically relied on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology. The report estimates that the domestic production of similar products accounted for only 14%-18% in 2023, indicating a substantial market opportunity for local producers [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry comprises 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 46,266.30 billion and a circulating market value of 45,144.74 billion [5]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -2.1%, with a 6-month performance of 2.7% and a 12-month performance of -4.9%. Relative performance shows a decline of -5.9% over one month, -17.1% over six months, and -22.4% over twelve months [6]. Policy Impact - The countervailing measures are expected to create a market space of approximately 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese, accelerating domestic substitution. The report highlights that the production capacity of deep processing projects is expected to consume over 400 million tons of raw milk, potentially leading to a reversal in the raw milk cycle by the second half of 2026 [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment opportunities: - Domestic substitutes that will directly benefit from the policy, with a focus on companies like Lihigh and Miaoke, which are positioned to capture high-end market segments [8]. - Dairy farms such as Youran and Modern Dairy, which are expected to benefit from a reversal in raw milk prices [8]. - Leading dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu, which are anticipated to strengthen their competitive edge through accelerated deep processing business and improved operational stability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has imposed temporary anti-subsidy tariffs of up to 42.7% on EU dairy products, significantly impacting French companies and altering the global trade landscape [1][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The temporary anti-subsidy tariffs are categorized into three tiers: 21.9% to 42.7% for sampled companies cooperating with the investigation, a uniform rate of 28.6% for other cooperating EU companies, and a maximum rate of 42.7% for non-cooperating companies [1][3]. - The affected dairy products include fresh cheese, processed cheese, blue cheese, and cream, excluding infant formula [3][5]. - The new tariffs increase the effective tax rates on EU cheese exports to China by over 20 percentage points, with some products exceeding a total tax rate of 50% [3][5]. Group 2: Background and Investigation - The trade dispute began with a complaint from the China Dairy Industry Association in August 2024, leading to an investigation into EU subsidies affecting Chinese dairy companies [5][10]. - The investigation revealed that EU subsidies under the Common Agricultural Policy have significantly harmed Chinese dairy producers, with EU dairy exports to China reaching €1.7 billion in 2023, accounting for over 30% of China's total dairy imports [5][10]. Group 3: Impact on Companies - French dairy companies, particularly those producing high-end products like Roquefort and Camembert, are expected to face severe impacts, with prices for French cheese in China projected to rise by 30% to 50% [8][12]. - New Zealand is positioned to benefit significantly from this trade dispute, as it currently supplies 60% of China's cheese imports, and the new tariffs will likely allow New Zealand to capture the market share left by EU products [12][14]. - Domestic dairy companies in China, such as Yili and Mengniu, are expected to accelerate their production capabilities in response to the tariff changes, with Yili planning to expand its cheese production lines [12][14].

聚焦"一老一小一全家"：以精准营养回应家庭真实需求 面对这一课题，三只小牛给出的答案是：以"新洞察"驱动"新产品"，围绕"一老一小一家庭"的核心 需求，为全生命周期用户构建精准营养产品矩阵。 针对"全家"营养需求，三只小牛率先洞察到乳糖不耐受群体的饮奶困境，开创"软牛奶"品类，让牛 奶成为全家人都能轻松享受的日常营养来源。三只小牛也被权威机构认证为软牛奶品类开创者、中国软 牛奶行业领导者品牌，印证了品牌在细分赛道中的引领地位。 12月22日，三只小牛在安徽省马鞍山市举办了2026现代牧业·三只小牛新品发布暨营商大会。会 上，两款战略新品正式亮相，标志着品牌从"服务大众营养"向"深耕精准营养"的战略升级迈出关键一 步。现代牧业业务部总经理吕志强出席活动并发表讲话。 一杯牛奶背后的国民健康课题 牛奶富含优质蛋白与钙质，是国民日常膳食的重要营养来源。然而有数据显示，中国人均饮奶量不 足膳食指南推荐量的十分之一，也间接导致钙、维生素D、钾等关键营养素缺口显著。这一差距背后， 折射出两重困境。其一是"不能喝"。中国约有6.6亿人存在乳糖不耐受或疑似乳糖不耐受，饮用普通牛 奶后容易产生腹胀、腹泻等不适，"想喝却不敢喝"成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products are expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the dairy processing sector, with temporary anti-subsidy deposits imposed on EU dairy imports starting December 23, 2025, at rates between 21.9% and 42.7% [1][2] - The share of EU dairy products in China's total dairy imports has been significant, ranging from 23.6% to 34.6% from 2020 to March 2024, indicating a substantial market impact [2] - Domestic dairy companies such as Miao Ke Lan Duo, Yili, Mengniu, and Li Gao are actively expanding their deep processing capabilities, which is expected to enhance demand for raw milk and improve the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk industry [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the implementation of temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy imports, which is anticipated to shift processing activities back to domestic producers [1][2] Market Dynamics - The deep processing of dairy products is projected to increase raw milk consumption, driven by expanding demand from new consumption scenarios such as milk tea [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong potential in deep processing and raw milk supply-demand balance, specifically recommending Miao Ke Lan Duo, Yili, Mengniu, Li Gao for deep processing, and You Ran Mu Ye, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu for upstream dairy farming [2]

Market Performance - Huazhong Biopharmaceutical (02396) saw a significant drop of nearly 30% on its debut and continued to decline by over 17% today. The company, established in 2012, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of wound healing therapies, but has not generated any revenue from product sales yet [1] - Zai Lab (02617) fell by over 16% following the unlocking of cornerstone lock-up shares on December 23 [1] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) increased by over 7% after announcing plans to spin off its subsidiary "Rare Earth Gold" for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Goldwind Technology (02208) rose nearly 1% as the world's largest integrated green hydrogen and ammonia project, built by China Energy Engineering, officially commenced production [1] - Guizhou Zhenjiu (06979) saw an increase of over 4% after announcing a phased halt to large-scale recruitment in certain regions, which has shown significant progress during the industry's adjustment period [1] Company Developments - Taobo (06110) experienced a decline of over 7% as it reported a high single-digit year-on-year drop in total sales for its retail and wholesale business for the third quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year [2] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) rose nearly 6% after its chairman increased his stake by acquiring 13.454 million shares at approximately HKD 8.1957 per share, totaling around HKD 110 million [2] - Shandong Gold (01787) increased by nearly 6% as spot gold prices reached a historical high of USD 4,400 per ounce, with predictions from JPMorgan estimating an average gold price of USD 5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026 [2] Industry Trends - The dairy sector saw active trading, with companies like Modern Dairy (01117), Original Ecology Dairy (01431), Mengniu Dairy (02319), and China Feihe (06186) all experiencing gains. This follows the Ministry of Commerce's announcement of temporary anti-subsidy measures on dairy products imported from the EU starting December 23, 2025 [3] - CIMC Enric (03899) rose by over 7% after signing a memorandum of cooperation with the Yangpu Economic Development Zone Management Committee at a recent offshore wind power industry chain conference [4] US Market Highlights - The US solar energy sector saw strong performance, with companies like Sunrun (RUN.US) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) rising by 10.84% and 10.78% respectively, following a Goldman Sachs report indicating a structural investment window in the solar sector [5] - Cytokinetics (CYTK.US) increased by 4.59% after receiving priority review approval for its innovative drug, which treats obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in adults [5] - Tesla (TSLA.US) rose by 1.56% as a prominent analyst expressed optimism about the company's expansion of its autonomous taxi service by 2026 [6] - Quantum computing stocks surged, with D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US) rising by 20.02% and IonQ Inc (IONQ.US) by 11.1% [6] - Cryptocurrency stocks continued to rise, with Hut 8 (HUT.US) increasing by 14.21% as Bitcoin and Ethereum prices surged [7]

Group 1 - Dairy stocks showed significant activity in early trading, with Modern Dairy (01117) up 3.42% at HKD 1.51, Original Ecology Dairy (01431) up 2.88% at HKD 0.25, Mengniu Dairy (02319) up 1.5% at HKD 15.56, and China Feihe (06186) up 1.42% at HKD 4.28 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting from December 23, 2025, temporary countervailing duties will be imposed on imported dairy products from the EU, which is expected to benefit domestic dairy producers [1] - Changjiang Securities indicated that with the growth in domestic product demand and low-cost domestic milk prices, the domestic substitution of deep-processed products is likely to accelerate [1] Group 2 - Zhongyou Securities noted that the government is releasing policies to stimulate demand, including the National Healthcare Security Administration's goal for "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth by 2026, along with local childcare subsidies [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments are working to enhance coordination between commerce and finance to boost consumption [1] - After previous capacity adjustments and accelerated reduction in dairy cow inventory, raw milk prices have stabilized, and a supply-demand turning point is expected in 2026, increasing the certainty of rising milk prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy sector is experiencing active trading, with several companies showing positive stock performance amid new government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Modern Dairy (01117) increased by 3.42%, trading at HKD 1.51 [1] - Original Ecology Dairy (01431) rose by 2.88%, trading at HKD 0.25 [1] - Mengniu Dairy (02319) saw a 1.5% increase, trading at HKD 15.56 [1] - China Feihe (06186) gained 1.42%, trading at HKD 4.28 [1] Group 2: Government Policies - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary countervailing measures on dairy products imported from the EU, effective December 23, 2025 [1] - Jiangsu Securities noted that the domestic demand for related products is increasing, and low domestic milk prices are expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of deep-processed products [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Zhongyou Securities highlighted that policy measures are being released to stimulate demand, including a goal for "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth by 2026 and local subsidies for childcare [1] - After previous capacity adjustments, the reduction in dairy cow inventory is accelerating, and raw milk prices have stabilized, indicating a potential supply-demand turning point in 2026 [1]

Macro and Strategy - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its dual industrial and financial attributes, with over 60% of silver used in industrial applications as of December 2025 [6][7] - The recent surge in silver prices was triggered by significant physical deliveries at the New York COMEX, with registered inventories dropping over 70% from their peak in 2020 [6] - Long-term demand for silver is expected to grow due to industrial applications in solar energy, AI, and electric vehicles, alongside continued global monetary easing [6] Industry and Company - The agricultural sector is witnessing a bullish trend in livestock prices, particularly for beef and milk, with expectations of a cyclical recovery in the meat and dairy markets [24][26] - The price of live pigs has increased to 11.57 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 2.03%, while beef prices are also on an upward trajectory [24][26] - The media and internet industry has shown resilience, with a 0.54% increase in the sector, outperforming major indices, driven by upcoming IPOs and strong box office performances from films like "Avatar 3" [27][28] - The copper industry is facing a significant shift as long-term processing fees for copper concentrate have been set to zero, indicating a potential improvement in the industry structure [31] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a downturn, with retail sales down 19% year-on-year in November, although there are signs of recovery in exports for certain categories like refrigerators and washing machines [32][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced preliminary findings of a countervailing investigation against imported dairy products from the EU, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic dairy industry in China. A temporary countervailing duty will be implemented starting December 23, 2025 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Ministry of Commerce's announcement (Document No. 83 of 2025) revealed that imported dairy products from the EU are subsidized, leading to significant harm to the domestic dairy industry. The State Council Tariff Commission will impose temporary countervailing duties starting December 23, 2025 [4]. Event Commentary - The countervailing investigation was initiated following a request from the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association in July 2024. The investigation confirmed that the subsidization of EU dairy products has resulted in increased inventory and a shift from profit to loss for domestic producers. The subsidy rates for sampled companies ranged from 21.9% to 42.7% [4]. Market Opportunities - The reliance on EU imports for various dairy products presents opportunities for domestic alternatives. In 2024, the B-end market for cheese, cream, and butter is projected to reach approximately 27.4 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.6% over the past decade. Key recommended companies include Miaokelando, Yili, Mengniu, New Dairy, and Lihai Foods [4]. Raw Milk Price Outlook - There is an expectation for a turning point in raw milk prices, as domestic fresh milk prices have decreased significantly while international prices for bulk powder have shown an upward trend. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to stabilize by 2026, with recommendations for companies like Youran Dairy and Modern Dairy [4].