Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a mid-term dividend to reward shareholders. For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 116.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.81% [4][6] - The revenue for Q2 2025 was 60.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.87% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.65%. The net profit for Q2 was 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.18% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.13% [4] - The performance fluctuations were mainly due to increased profits from the production and sales of primary aluminum and alumina, alongside decreased margins from self-produced coal and reduced profits from trading activities [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue from the primary aluminum segment was 75.95 billion yuan (up 11.38% year-on-year), while the alumina segment generated 33.24 billion yuan (up 5.75% year-on-year). Production volumes for metallurgical-grade alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and coal increased by 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The average price of alumina in the domestic futures market for H1 2025 was 3,192 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The price of alumina is expected to stabilize as industry supply pressures ease [5] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained its mid-term dividend policy, planning to distribute a cash dividend of 0.123 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders, totaling 2.11 billion yuan (before tax), which accounts for approximately 30% of the company's net profit for the first half of 2025 [6] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 14.84 billion yuan, 15.89 billion yuan, and 16.61 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.08, 8.48, and 8.11 times [7]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) has launched a special action plan for 2025 aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency while returning value to shareholders, aligning with various governmental guidelines and market initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Work Goals - The company aims to produce 16.81 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 4.46 million tons of fine alumina, 7.8 million tons of primary aluminum (including alloys), 14.1 million tons of raw coal, and generate 41.2 billion kWh of electricity by 2025 [2]. - The strategic focus includes building a world-class aluminum company through resource mining, technological innovation, advanced materials, and green low-carbon initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Performance in the First Half of 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved production of 8.6 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 3.97 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and 6.61 million tons of coal, representing year-on-year increases of 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% respectively [3]. - The company reported revenue of 116.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.12%, and a total profit of 13.2 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 7.1 billion yuan, marking increases of 2.16% and 0.81% respectively [3]. Group 3: Future Work Measures - The company plans to enhance production operations, upgrade management, and drive technological innovation to improve profitability and value creation [4][5]. - Key initiatives include rigorous cost control, project implementation, and optimizing traditional industry structures to support sustainable development [4][5]. Group 4: Enhancing Market Recognition - The company will improve information disclosure to enhance transparency and maintain high-quality communication with investors [5][6]. - Strengthening investor relations through multiple engagement channels and enhancing shareholder returns through cash dividends and share buybacks are also prioritized [5][6]. Group 5: ESG and Value Management - The company aims to lead in green and sustainable development within the aluminum industry by enhancing its ESG governance and performance [6]. - A focus on value management will be established to improve investment value and shareholder returns through various strategic tools [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating at a high level [11] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [13] - Lead: Oscillating [14] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly [16] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating [22] - Tin: Oscillating [23] 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues have pushed non - ferrous metals back to the upper edge of the recent range. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar and supply disturbances support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. In the long term, potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin support non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are supported by macro factors and supply disturbances; alumina prices are under pressure due to over - supply; aluminum prices are affected by supply, demand, and inventory; and so on [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Information Analysis: The Fed's potential September rate - cut and the resilience of the US economy boost copper prices. In August, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly year - on - year. The spot price showed a premium, and the inventory increased. The processing fees of copper ore and blister copper are low, and the raw material supply is tight. The cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, and some smelters may reduce production [6]. - Main Logic: Macro factors and supply disturbances support copper prices. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation was not obvious. Low inventory supports copper prices in the short term [6]. - Outlook: Copper supply constraints remain, and the inventory is low. However, the US copper tariff is not conducive to the Shanghai copper price. Copper is expected to oscillate [7]. Alumina - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of alumina in most regions was stable, while that in Xinjiang decreased. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi reduced production due to ore shortages. The winning bid price of a tender in Xinjiang decreased, and the railway freight in Shandong changed. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [7][8]. - Main Logic: The high - profit margin of smelters has shrunk, but the raw materials are relatively abundant. The operating capacity is at a high level, and the supply is in excess. The warehouse receipts and inbound volume have increased, and the price is expected to be under pressure. However, short - term supply capacity fluctuations and medium - to - long - term mine disturbances need attention [8]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider short - selling on rallies and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [10]. Aluminum - Information Analysis: On September 1, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE decreased. An Indonesian Chinese - funded electrolytic aluminum enterprise plans to put into production. The performance of some listed aluminum companies was released [10][11]. - Main Logic: The short - term US rate - cut expectation increases, and the US dollar is weak. The supply capacity is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the terminal consumption is not strong. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot discount is widening. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate [11]. - Outlook: Observe the short - term consumption and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of Baotai ADC12 was stable, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The SHFE adjusted the margin and price limit of cast aluminum alloy futures. The performance of some listed companies was released [11][12]. - Main Logic: The cost is supported by scrap aluminum. The supply decreased during the off - season, and some recycling plants reduced production due to policy changes. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [12][13]. - Outlook: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13]. Zinc - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of zinc showed a discount. The inventory of zinc ingots increased. A smelter in Guangxi plans to stop production for maintenance due to raw material supply interruption [13]. - Main Logic: The macro environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelter's profitability is good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - Outlook: In September, the zinc ingot production will remain high, and the demand recovery is limited. The inventory may continue to accumulate. The zinc price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead were stable. The spot price of lead ingots was stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The traditional peak season of the lead - acid battery market was average, and the transportation was restricted in some regions, affecting the inventory [14][15]. - Main Logic: The spot discount and the price difference between primary and secondary lead are stable. The supply of lead decreased slightly, and the demand is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. The demand for lead ingots is stable [15][16]. - Outlook: The macro environment is positive. The supply may tighten slightly this week, and the demand is stable. However, the release of accumulated lead ingots after the end of transportation restrictions may put pressure on the price. The lead price is expected to oscillate [16]. Nickel - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Some nickel - related projects and policy changes were reported, such as a new nickel and copper refinery in Tanzania and the change of RKAB approval in Indonesia [16][17][18]. - Main Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The ore supply may be loose after the rainy season. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the nickel salt price has declined slightly. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Use a short - term trading strategy [21]. - Outlook: The equity market is strong, and the expected RKAB approval in Indonesia in mid - September will make the nickel price oscillate strongly in the short term. Take a wait - and - see attitude in the long term [21]. Stainless Steel - Information Analysis: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price showed a premium. The production and logistics in the nickel industry chain in Indonesia were not affected by the demonstrations [22]. - Main Logic: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The stainless steel production increased in August. Pay attention to the demand during the peak season. The inventory decreased slightly, and the structural over - supply pressure has eased [22]. - Outlook: Be wary of the possible expansion of production cuts by steel mills. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes [22]. Tin - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight [23]. - Main Logic: The resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight supply of tin ore in China. The export of refined tin in Indonesia decreased, and the production and export in Africa are unstable. The supply is tight, supporting the tin price. The terminal demand has weakened, and the inventory reduction is difficult [23]. - Outlook: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of ore. It is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase in August [23].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a slight consolidation, with a noticeable trend of "high cutting and low buying" in recent funds, particularly focusing on the solid performance and high valuation of the non-ferrous metal sector during the interim report season [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant net inflow of over 1 billion yuan in a single day, with four out of the last five days showing net inflows totaling over 1.85 billion yuan [3] - As of the latest data, the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has surpassed a scale of 10 billion yuan, with both fund shares and scale reaching new highs since its listing [3] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) experienced a net subscription of 2.9 million shares, translating to a real-time net subscription amount exceeding 37 million yuan [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Silver trading prices have surpassed 40 USD per ounce, marking the highest level since 2011 [5] - On September 1, tungsten concentrate prices surged by 12,000 yuan, reaching 264,000 yuan per ton, with a growth rate of 4.76%, and a cumulative increase of nearly 35% over the past two months [5] - COMEX gold futures rose over 1% on September 1, reaching a peak of 3,552 USD per ounce, setting a new historical high [5] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Analysts indicate that the A-share precious metals and industrial metals sectors are currently in a "high profitability, low valuation" phase, with expectations for valuation increases driven by active capital market trading and the "high cutting and low buying" rotation effect [3] - The non-ferrous sector is experiencing a comprehensive growth across various sub-sectors, with price-driven earnings per share (EPS) and improved sentiment contributing to a dual boost in price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [5] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading option for investors looking to capitalize on future opportunities in precious and industrial metals, given its higher copper content and scale [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Free Cash Flow ETF has shown strong performance with significant inflows and high returns, indicating a favorable investment environment for companies with robust free cash flow [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of September 1, 2025, the Free Cash Flow ETF has achieved a 0.36% increase, with notable stocks like Jiejia Weichuang and Midea Group also rising [3]. - The ETF has seen a total inflow of 619 million yuan over the past 11 days, with a peak single-day inflow of 144 million yuan [3]. - The latest share count for the ETF reached 4.015 billion, with a total asset size of 4.518 billion yuan, both marking new highs since inception [3]. Group 2: Fund Management and Fees - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past two months is 0.068%, indicating the highest tracking precision among similar funds [4]. Group 3: Index Composition - The National Index of Free Cash Flow reflects the price changes of listed companies with high and stable free cash flow levels [4]. - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, and Midea Group, collectively accounting for 57.95% of the index [4].

Core Insights - The China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index (932365) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.86% increase as of September 2, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Silver Nonferrous (601212) up by 10.08% and Jiejia Weichuang (300724) up by 8.93% [1] Performance Summary - The Free Cash Flow ETF Fund (159233) has experienced a 1.24% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.14 yuan. Over the past two weeks, the fund has accumulated a total increase of 3.58% [1] - The fund's liquidity is reflected in a turnover rate of 1.07% and a trading volume of 1.2954 million yuan. The average daily trading volume over the past week was 17.6088 million yuan [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of 19.1927 million yuan recently, with a total of 25.8568 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days, averaging 5.1714 million yuan per day [1] Return Metrics - Since its inception, the Free Cash Flow ETF Fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 7.80% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 3 months, with a total increase of 12.56%. The average return during up months is 4.07%, with a monthly profit probability of 92% [2] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 3.28%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.24%. The recovery period after drawdown is 12 days, indicating a relatively quick recovery compared to comparable funds [2] - The fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [2] Top Holdings - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), Wuliangye (000858), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919), collectively accounting for 57.03% of the index [3]

Group 1: Smart Wearable Technology - A stylish smart temperature-controlled down jacket was showcased at the 7th China International New Materials Industry Expo, capable of heating up in 2 seconds and featuring four temperature settings [1] - The core technology of the jacket is based on a two-dimensional material that offers high electrical conductivity, stability, and processability, along with precise temperature control through smart algorithms [1] - The company, Harbin Yunjing Technology Co., Ltd., focuses on applying new energy and new material technologies in smart wearable products, including low-pressure rapid heating systems and smart fabrics [1] Group 2: Eco-friendly Materials - An eco-friendly bag made from plant fiber biodegradable materials was presented, capable of holding over 10 kilograms, demonstrating its strength and durability [3] - The biodegradable material used for the bag is advantageous due to its full biodegradability, low cost, and the ability to avoid "white pollution" caused by traditional plastic products [3] - The company, Heilongjiang Jinying Nafu Biotechnology Co., Ltd., specializes in producing fully biodegradable materials for various applications, including packaging and agricultural films [3] Group 3: Aluminum Materials in Automotive Industry - China Aluminum Corporation showcased an all-aluminum car body model, highlighting the advantages of aluminum alloy automotive panels, such as higher strength, lighter weight, and ease of forming [5] - The aluminum materials produced by the company have reached international advanced levels, with certifications from over 25 major manufacturers for more than 90 vehicle models [5] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 320,000 tons in 2024, leading the domestic market share in aluminum automotive materials [5]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China Aluminum (601600)(02600) achieved a net profit of 7.1 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with earnings per share of 0.412 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs has raised its profit forecast for China Aluminum for 2025-2026 by 11% to 15%, expecting regular net profits to remain strong at 13.3 billion RMB in 2025 and 14 billion RMB in 2026 [1] - The free cash flow yield for the next two years is projected to reach 22% [1] Price Forecasts - The target price for China Aluminum's H-shares has been increased from 6.3 HKD to 7.6 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Margin Adjustments - The forecast for alumina gross margins has been raised by 30% to 70% for the next two years, reflecting higher average selling prices achieved in the first half of the year [1] - However, due to expected acceleration in imports from Guinea, the profit forecast for self-supplied bauxite alumina has been lowered, with import bauxite prices adjusted down from 90 USD per ton to 75 USD per ton for the second half of this year through 2026 [1] - The alumina production forecast for 2026 has been increased by 9%, reflecting the full production of the Guangxi Huasheng project [1] - The aluminum gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026 have been reduced by 12% to 18%, reflecting higher operating costs observed in the first half of the year, with unit operating cost estimates raised by 5% to 6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance, with the market influenced by supply-side regulations and increasing demand from various sectors, including automotive and electronics [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 1, 2025, the China Rare Earth Industry Index decreased by 0.58%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1]. - Xiamen Tungsten Industry led the gains with a rise of 5.78%, while Shenghe Resources saw the largest decline at 4.60% [1][7]. - The rare earth ETF, Jiashi, experienced a weekly increase of 10.67% as of August 29, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Performance - The Jiashi rare earth ETF had a turnover rate of 5.82% and a transaction volume of 478 million yuan [4]. - The fund's latest scale reached 8.256 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, and it holds the top position among comparable funds [4]. - Over the past year, the Jiashi ETF's net value increased by 121.12%, ranking it in the top 3.25% among index equity funds [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The release of the "Interim Measures for Total Quantity Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Separation" on August 22 has intensified supply-side controls [5]. - Demand for rare earth products is expected to grow due to advancements in industries such as automotive, 3C electronics, and emerging sectors like humanoid robots and aerospace [5]. - Following the implementation of export controls in April 2025, there has been a recovery in the export volume of certain rare earth products, with significant price increases observed in overseas markets [5]. Group 4: Key Stocks and Weightings - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index account for 62.15% of the index, with Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth being the largest contributors [4]. - The performance of these stocks varies, with Northern Rare Earth down by 0.46% and China Aluminum up by 0.89% as of the latest data [7].

为其最重要的贸易伙伴。究竟是什么力量，让地缘政治回归现实轨道？ 为了落实这一战略，蒙古国还出台了配套法规：明确禁止原矿直接出口中国，并限制中资控股比例。甚至在《矿产法》中，刻意留下模糊条款，以便日后有 更多空间施压外资。此前中铝试图收购蒙古煤矿项目，就因此功败垂成。这一系列政策清晰地勾勒出"远交近防"的外交思路。但问题在于，这种用政治意志 硬抗地理逻辑的尝试，注定带有理想化色彩。早前他们计划向美国出口稀土，却因中俄拒绝过境申请，计划瞬间泡汤。奥尤陶勒盖铜矿距中国边境不足百公 里，却被迫舍近求远，这本质上是一场与现实角力的实验。 2009年，一份关于奥尤陶勒盖世界级铜矿的合同悄然签订，但它从第一天起就带有鲜明的政治烙印。合同中的核心条款赫然写着：禁止矿石出口至毗邻的中 国。换句话说，这并非单纯的商业行为，而是蒙古"第三邻国"外交战略的一次高调实践。对于这个夹在中俄两大强国之间的内陆国家来说，他们幻想用一份 契约来突破"地理宿命"。而他们的合作伙伴，则是来自澳大利亚的力拓集团——一家百年矿业巨头。蒙古国希望通过西方资本，不仅获取资金，还能借助先 进技术与国际话语权。 文 | 北什么 地理引力真的完全无法抗衡吗？十 ...