利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 114573 H 利 # 江 -4185 外购锂辉石精矿利润 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 111677 外购锂云母精矿利润 -3885 行业 12月25日晚，湖南裕能，万润新能公告拟对部分产线就产检修。湖南裕能公告检修时间从2026年1月1日起预计一个月，本次检修预计减少公司 盐正极材料产品产量1.5至3.5万吨。万润新能公告，自2025年12月28日起，公司将对部分产线按照预定计划进行减产检修，预计检修时 个月,预计减少公司磷酸铁锂产量5000吨至2万吨。 主要 污灾方面,终端(储能+新能源车) 旺季持续,材料端1月停产检修增加,社会库存"上游-下游-终端"移动的链条流畅。供给方面,尚未见大 墙产。产业链博弈长协价格,上游挺价意愿增加,再次验证终端需求旺盛,中长期支撑价格。短期内,价格快速上涨, 十十八 7117 警惕追言风险。 xiti 贡 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做低何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing price negotiations between lithium iron phosphate manufacturers and downstream battery cell factories, indicating strong demand in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Negotiations and Market Dynamics - Lithium iron phosphate companies are in the second round of price negotiations with downstream battery manufacturers, while many other material manufacturers have yet to finalize the first round of negotiations [1][3]. - The adjustment of the spot trading settlement price model by Tianqi Lithium reflects the robust demand from downstream sectors [1][3]. Group 2: Production Cuts and Supply Impact - Companies such as Hunan Youneng, Deyang Nano, and Wanrun New Energy have announced production cuts, with Hunan Youneng reducing 15,000 to 35,000 tons of cathode material and Wanrun New Energy cutting 5,000 to 20,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate [2]. - The production cuts are expected to support price stability in the market, potentially allowing lithium prices to rise and be transmitted downstream [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Outlook - Lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing for 19 consecutive weeks, with a current inventory of 109,773 tons, marking a reduction of 652 tons from the previous week [4]. - The total production capacity of lithium batteries in China is projected to be approximately 210 GWh in January 2026, a 4.5% decrease from the previous period, which is better than market expectations [4]. Group 4: Energy Storage Demand and Future Projections - The domestic energy storage sector is expected to benefit from declining costs and new policies, leading to improved profitability and increased demand [5]. - Global shipments of energy storage lithium batteries are forecasted to reach 620 GWh in 2025, a 77% year-on-year increase, and are expected to grow to 960 GWh in 2026, representing a 54.8% increase [5]. Group 5: Future Technologies and Demand Drivers - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to drive new demand for lithium, with projected shipments of 5.1 GWh in 2025 and nearly 80 GWh by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 64% [6]. - The lithium consumption per kilowatt-hour for solid-state batteries is expected to double compared to current lithium battery systems, further increasing lithium demand [6]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies with significant growth potential in the mining sector include Tianhua New Energy, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Cangge Mining, Salt Lake Co., Yahua Group, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium [7].

Industry Dynamics - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its commercialization, with companies like Xinwangda Power and Zhongwei signing strategic cooperation agreements [1] - QuantumScape has signed a joint development agreement for solid-state batteries with a top ten global automaker, while Factorial has reached a final business merger agreement with CGCT, planning to list on NASDAQ [1] - Jinlongyu plans to establish a 1.5 billion yuan industrial merger fund focused on investments in the new energy solid-state battery supply chain [1] Lithium Battery Supply Chain Developments - CATL has signed a ten-year deep cooperation agreement with Lantu and a three-year 50GWh energy storage cooperation memorandum with Siyuan Electric [1] - CATL has also secured a 350,000-ton electrolyte order from South Korea's Enchem, while Huayou Cobalt has signed a 79,600-ton ternary precursor order with a well-known international client [1] - Haike Xingyuan has signed a three-year 270,000-ton order for electrolyte solvents and additives with Fainlight [1] New Energy Vehicle Industry Data - In November, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.823 million units, up 21% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 53.2%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In the first eleven months, domestic new energy vehicle sales totaled 14.78 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31% [3] - In Europe, nine countries saw new energy vehicle sales of 288,700 units in November, up 41% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 34.6% [3] - In the U.S., November new energy vehicle sales were 83,600 units, down 42% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 6.6% [3] Lithium Material and Battery Prices - Lithium carbonate prices have risen to 111,900 yuan per ton, an increase of 17,400 yuan compared to two weeks ago [4] - Prices for ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, and wet separators have also increased, while anode prices remain stable [4] - The prices for square ternary power cells, lithium iron phosphate power cells, and energy storage cells have seen slight increases compared to two weeks ago [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies in the lithium battery industry with low valuations and strong demand include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [4] - Leading companies in the low-altitude economy and robotics sectors are also recommended, such as Wolong Electric Drive and Weilan Lithium [4] - Companies with a strong focus on solid-state battery materials, such as Xiamen Tungsten and Rongbai Technology, are highlighted for investment [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the metal zinc sector leading in gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3964.65, up 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13604.30, flat, and the ChiNext Index was at 3237.77, down 0.19% [1] Fiscal Policy - The National Financial Work Conference held on December 27-28 emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, with a focus on boosting consumption through special actions and financial support for consumer goods [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement measures to enhance consumption, including adjusting and optimizing subsidy ranges and standards [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)," advocating for more proactive macro policies to mitigate risks in key areas and improve the investment environment for long-term capital in A-shares [1] Industry Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced refined rules for commercial rocket companies under the fifth set of listing standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, emphasizing the importance of industry ranking and recognition from market participants [1] - The establishment of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence standardization technical committee was announced, focusing on developing industry standards in key technology areas [2] Economic Indicators - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that from January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 66,268.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [2] Digital Currency - The People's Bank of China is set to introduce an action plan to strengthen the management and service system for digital currency, with a new framework and ecosystem expected to launch on January 1, 2026 [2] Trade Regulations - The National People's Congress Standing Committee passed a revised foreign trade law, effective March 1, 2026, which establishes a trade adjustment assistance system to stabilize supply chains [2] Market Trends - China's ETF market has reached a scale of 6.03 trillion yuan, marking a growth of over 60% from the beginning of the year [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is implementing a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, with an estimated total reduction of approximately 1.113 billion yuan [3] Corporate Announcements - Zhong Aluminum International signed a project contract worth approximately 14 billion yuan with overseas clients [6] - The announcement from Xinyi Solar indicated compliance guidance for the photovoltaic industry to maintain fair competition [4] - The announcement from Xiaomi Group revealed plans for co-founder Lin Bin to sell up to $500 million of Class B common stock every 12 months [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, expand fiscal spending, and optimize the government bond tool portfolio [2][14]. - The profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises from January to November has slowed down, but the growth trend since August continues, and new kinetic energy industries are growing rapidly [2][14]. - The prices of domestic precious metals and base metals have risen collectively, with many varieties hitting new highs, while the price of palladium futures has fallen [3]. - The Baltic countries' natural gas reserves are extremely low, which may lead to supply problems during the cold season [9]. - The acquisition of autumn grains this year is at a record - high level, and the grain output has increased, mainly driven by the increase in corn production [10]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile by the end of the year, and the direction of the market depends on policies and supply [21][22]. - The A - share market is expected to be a volatile market with structural opportunities, and the cycle sector, especially non - ferrous metals, is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [33][35]. Summary by Directory Macro Data Quick View - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the new social financing scale was 24885.00 billion yuan, compared with 8161.00 billion yuan in the previous month and 23288.00 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, down from - 2.1% in the previous month [1]. - In November 2025, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The 2026 fiscal work will focus on six key tasks, including boosting consumption, increasing investment in key areas, and promoting employment [2][14]. - From January to November, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%, but the profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [2][14]. - On December 26, 30 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The prices of domestic precious metals and base metals rose, with platinum futures hitting the daily limit, and palladium futures falling [3]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for platinum and palladium futures during the New Year's Day holiday [3]. - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, and the silver price may continue to rise [4]. Metals - The price of silver has risen sharply, with the international spot silver price breaking through $82 per ounce [5]. - Gold, silver, and platinum prices hit new highs on December 26, supported by geopolitical risks and a weak dollar [5]. - The price of gold jewelry has exceeded 1400 yuan, and the gold recycling market has shown a "polarized" situation [5]. - Several lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have announced production shutdowns for maintenance due to equipment maintenance and cost pressures [6]. - The CME will raise the margin requirements for gold, silver, and lithium futures after the close on December 29 [6]. - The price of silver has increased by 175% this year, and there are concerns about its impact on industrial development and potential price corrections [6]. - As of December 26, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.27% to 1071.13 tons [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Chile's state - owned copper company and a lithium giant will merge their subsidiaries to develop lithium in the Atacama Salt Flats [8]. Energy and Chemicals - As of December 28, Xinjiang Oilfield's carbon dioxide injection exceeded 1 million tons, marking a key step in the large - scale application of CCUS technology [9]. - The natural gas reserves in the Baltic countries are extremely low, which may cause supply problems during the cold season [9]. Agricultural Products - As of now, the purchase of autumn grains has exceeded 200 million tons, 32 million tons more than the same period last year [10]. - China's grain output in 2025 was 1.43 trillion catties, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, mainly driven by corn production [10]. - The South American soybean growing area has received good rainfall, which is beneficial to the growth of sown soybeans. The production of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 25 decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, and exports increased by 1.6% month - on - month [11]. - The prices of rice and eggs in Japan have reached record highs [11]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market [12]. - On December 26, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders, with a total winning amount of 210 billion yuan [12]. - On December 26, the central bank conducted 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [12]. Important News - The 2026 National Two Sessions will be held in March, and the review of the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft is on the agenda of the National People's Congress [13][15]. - The National People's Congress Standing Committee passed a new version of the Foreign Trade Law, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026 [15]. - The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", aiming to maintain financial stability and create a suitable monetary and financial environment [17]. - The central bank will pay close attention to the real estate market and promote its stable and healthy development [18]. - The China National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, focusing on early - stage projects in key areas [18]. - Hainan Free Trade Port has launched the full - island customs closure operation, and relevant policies have achieved initial results [18]. - The central bank and the foreign exchange administration will promote cross - border corporate currency integration funds pool business nationwide [19]. - Hong Kong's economy is expected to maintain a good momentum in 2026 [19]. - The issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds this year has reached 2.26 trillion yuan [19]. - The first industrial plant REITs project in the inter - institutional market has been listed [19]. - Vanke's second 3.7 billion yuan bond extension plan has not been approved [20]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market has warmed up, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and treasury bond futures rising [21]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally rose, while industrial and financial bonds generally fell [22]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.04%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.23% [22]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and short - term Shibor rates mostly rose [23]. - Most bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - silver repurchase fixed - rate bonds fell [23][24]. - Most US Treasury yields fell, except for the 30 - year yield [24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0085, down 19 points from the previous trading day [26]. - The US dollar index rose 0.12%, and major non - US currencies showed mixed performance [26]. Research Report Highlights - In 2025, the bond market was a typical "sideways market", and investors faced challenges in a low - interest - rate environment [27]. - The steel industry may see continued improvement in supply and demand in 2026, and steel bond investment should focus on central and state - owned enterprises [27]. - Since mid - November, long - term bonds, especially ultra - long - term bonds, have been significantly adjusted, possibly due to banks' end - of - year duration constraints [28]. - The risk of systemic default of weak - region urban investment bonds in 2027 is limited, but there are valuation and liquidity risks [29]. - The issuance scale and duration of government bonds have increased this year, and the supply pressure on long - term bonds will remain high in 2026 [29]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the RMB may appreciate moderately in 2026, but one - sided bets should be avoided [29]. - Ultra - long - term bonds have certain allocation value in the long run [30]. Today's Reminders - On December 29, 210 bonds will be listed, 61 bonds will be issued, and 459 bonds will pay principal and interest [31][32]. Stock Market News - In the last three trading days of 2025, the A - share market is expected to be a volatile market with structural opportunities [33]. - In 2025, there were 528 double - digit stocks in the A - share market, mainly AI and merger - concept stocks [33]. - As of December 26, the highest return of public active equity funds reached 236.88%, and 72 funds had returns exceeding 100% [34]. - The A - share private placement market has recovered in 2025, with public and private funds investing over 41 billion yuan and achieving high floating profit ratios [34]. - Since 2025, the enthusiasm of A - share companies to list in Hong Kong has increased, and the "A + H" dual - listing model has seen explosive growth [35]. - The cycle sector, especially non - ferrous metals, has strong growth momentum in 2025 and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [35].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The US real estate market is currently in a "weak supply and demand" state, with expectations of a weak recovery by 2026 due to challenges in policy transmission and external risks [2] - Industrial profits in November continued to decline year-on-year, with only the midstream equipment sector showing stable growth, while upstream and downstream sectors weakened [3] - The A-share market has not shown clear signs of a bull market peak, indicating continued potential for market performance [4] Group 2: Market Strategies - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally supported by ongoing policy efforts and capital inflows, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors [5] - The REITs market has shown signs of price recovery after five weeks of decline, with notable returns compared to other asset classes [6] - Credit bond issuance increased by 15.42% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in the credit market [7] Group 3: Industry Research - The green methanol sector is rapidly growing under the "carbon neutrality" initiative, with a focus on companies that have established a complete supply chain [10] - The engineering machinery industry is witnessing a recovery in domestic demand and accelerated overseas growth, with several key manufacturers recommended for investment [11] - Strategic metals are expected to see investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [12] Group 4: Company Research - Sinopec Engineering's acquisition of the East China Pipeline Design Institute is expected to enhance its competitive edge in pipeline transportation [19] - China Oil Engineering has signed a $424 million EPC contract for a pipeline project in Kazakhstan, indicating its proactive expansion into overseas markets [20] - Jinhui Liquor is positioned to benefit from regional brand advantages and market expansion, with strong revenue and profit growth projections [21]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The Ministry of Finance announced that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue in 2026, expanding fiscal spending and supporting consumption through trade-in subsidies for consumer goods [5] - The government aims to optimize the combination of government bond tools and enhance the effectiveness of transfer payment funds, ensuring necessary expenditure [5] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a strong IPO wave, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange releasing guidelines for commercial rocket companies to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [6] - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace and the inclusion of the sector in national strategic plans are expected to enhance industry efficiency and international competitiveness [6] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence in Finance - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to advance AI applications in finance in a safe and orderly manner, highlighting the importance of AI in the modern financial system [7] Group 4: Raw Material Price Trends - Prices of core raw materials for lithium batteries have surged, leading to price increases in battery products, with companies like Dejia Energy raising prices by 15% [8] - A collective price increase in lithium iron phosphate is anticipated due to production cuts from major suppliers, affecting supply-demand dynamics in January [9] Group 5: Human-Robot Industry Developments - UBTECH Robotics secured contracts worth over 1.3 billion yuan for humanoid robots, aiming for an annual production capacity of 10,000 units by 2026 [10] - The establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence is expected to enhance industry standards and promote technological advancements [13] Group 6: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have reached record highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar, with silver prices increasing by approximately 18% in the past week [14] - The surge in precious metals is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties [14] Group 7: Regulatory Actions - Six listed companies are under investigation or facing penalties from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, indicating a tightening regulatory environment [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on December 29, 2025, and the trends of the main (continuous) contracts in December 2025. It also provides resistance and support levels for each futures contract [2][5]. - The report analyzes the macro - information, including national policies, economic data, and international events, and their potential impacts on the futures market [7]. - It elaborates on the price trends and influencing factors of precious metals, such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as other commodities like crude oil, copper, and aluminum [13][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - The 19th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee passed a decision on convening the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress and the agenda. It also passed the revised Foreign Trade Law, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026 [7]. - The 2026 National Two Sessions' convening time is determined. The 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held on March 4, 2026, and the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held on March 5, 2026 [8]. - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 6,626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [9]. - The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology deployed ten key tasks for 2026, including curbing low - price and low - quality competition, supporting AI research, and promoting the development of new businesses [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in 2025, the industrial economy advanced steadily, with the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size expected to increase by 5.9% year - on - year [9]. - The National Financial Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued, with an expansion of fiscal expenditure and optimization of government bond tools [10]. - The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", indicating that relevant departments will improve the institutional environment for long - term investment in the A - share market and promote the improvement of listed companies' quality [11]. - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched, focusing on early - stage projects and seed enterprises in fields such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, etc. [11]. - This year, the global M&A transaction volume exceeded $4 trillion, reaching $4.5 trillion, the second - highest level in history [11]. - A new convention on global trade rules, the "United Nations Convention on Negotiable Transport Documents", was passed at the 80th United Nations General Assembly [12]. 3.2 Commodity Futures - Related Information - Global major economies' monetary policies are turning loose, geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and central banks are strengthening capital flow supervision, which enhances the institutional attractiveness of precious metals. On December 26, international gold and silver prices reached new highs [13]. - The reasons for the recent rise in precious metal prices include geopolitical tensions, a weakening US dollar, and low market liquidity. Silver's performance is more remarkable, driven by speculative capital inflows and supply mismatches [14]. - CME Group will comprehensively increase the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium, and other metal futures after the close on December 29 [14]. - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the "one - year silver swap spread" dropping to - 7.18%, indicating an extreme shortage of spot silver [15]. - On December 26, the prices of domestic precious metals and base metals rose collectively, with many varieties reaching new highs. The Shanghai Futures Exchange reminded to control market risks [15]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit ranges and trading margin standards of platinum and palladium futures contracts during the New Year's Day holiday in 2026 [15]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On December 26, the main contracts of stock index futures, such as IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603, showed a trend of opening high, rising, then falling back and oscillating upward [16][17][18]. - It is expected that on December 29, stock index futures will likely show a strong - biased oscillation. For example, IF2603 has resistance levels at 4,667 and 4,691 points and support levels at 4,625 and 4,611 points [24]. - In December 2025, the main (continuous) contracts of stock index futures are expected to show a strong - biased or strong - biased oscillation trend, with corresponding resistance and support levels provided [23]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On December 26, the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, T2603, opened slightly higher and oscillated upward. The 30 - year main contract also rose [44]. - It is expected that on December 29, the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, T2603, will likely show a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance levels at 108.36 and 108.43 yuan and support levels at 108.21 and 108.17 yuan [46]. - The main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, opened slightly higher and oscillated upward on December 26. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29, with resistance levels at 113.2 and 113.6 yuan and support levels at 112.4 and 112.1 yuan [48][50]. 3.3.3 Precious Metal Futures - **Gold Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of gold futures, AU2602, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [50][52][51]. - **Silver Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of silver futures, AG2602, opened flat, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward significantly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [59][64][63]. - **Platinum Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of platinum futures, PT2606, opened with a gap up, then rose and oscillated strongly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [67]. - **Palladium Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of palladium futures, PD2606, opened with a large gap up, then fell after a rebound and oscillated downward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [74]. 3.3.4 Base Metal Futures - **Copper Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of copper futures, CU2602, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward strongly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [77][79]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of aluminum futures, AL2602, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [85]. - **Alumina Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of alumina futures, AO2605, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward significantly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased wide - range oscillation [90]. - **Nickel Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of nickel futures, NI2602, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation after an initial decline [95]. - **Tin Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of tin futures, SN2602, opened slightly higher, then rose and oscillated strongly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [98]. 3.3.5 Other Commodity Futures - **Polysilicon Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of polysilicon futures, PS2605, opened slightly lower, then fell after a rebound and oscillated weakly downward. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures, LC2605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward significantly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [106][107]. - **Rebar Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of rebar futures, RB2605, opened slightly higher, then fell after a rebound and oscillated slightly downward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [112]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures, HC2605, opened flat, then rose after a fall and oscillated slightly upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 [117]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of iron ore futures, I2605, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [119]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of coking coal futures, JM2605, opened slightly lower, then fell after a rebound and oscillated downward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a weak - biased wide - range oscillation [123]. - **Glass Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of glass futures, FG605, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation [127]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of soda ash futures, SA605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation [133]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of crude oil futures, SC2602, opened slightly lower, then fell after a rebound and oscillated slightly downward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation [137]. - **PTA Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of PTA futures, TA605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward strongly. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29 [143][144]. - **PX Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of PX futures, PX603, opened slightly higher, then rose and oscillated upward strongly. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29 [146]. - **PVC Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of PVC futures, V2605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 [149].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing a price increase trend, while the price competition for lithium battery materials is intensifying [1]. - In the fourth quarter, which is the peak sales season for new energy vehicles, domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to maintain high growth in 2025, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - The solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, and attention should be paid to the verification progress of related materials and equipment companies [1]. - The report emphasizes a "de-involution" strategy as the main investment theme for photovoltaics, with the integration and acquisition of polysilicon production capacity becoming more proactive [1]. - The demand for wind power is expected to continue growing, with a focus on wind turbines and offshore wind power [1]. - The energy storage sector remains highly prosperous, with recommendations to focus on energy storage cells and large-scale integrated plants [1]. - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to open up demand for green hydrogen, with a focus on downstream hydrogen-based energy applications [1]. - The report suggests monitoring core suppliers in the nuclear fusion sector as it represents a long-term catalytic direction for future energy development [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The power equipment and new energy sector rose by 5.37% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.88% [10]. - The wind power sector saw the highest increase at 7.14%, followed by the photovoltaic sector at 6.56% [13]. Lithium Battery Market - The price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at approximately 98,000 RMB per ton, reflecting an 8% increase [25]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells has also seen an upward trend, with prices for various models ranging from 0.285 to 0.425 RMB per watt-hour [26]. Photovoltaic Market - The price of polysilicon remains stable, with tight supply and weak downstream demand affecting price transmission [15]. - The price of silicon wafers has shown a significant increase, driven by rising silver prices and industry self-discipline [16]. - The price of battery cells has increased to 0.34 RMB per watt, with manufacturers actively raising prices due to cost pressures [17]. Energy Storage Market - The price of energy storage systems has rebounded, with prices for various configurations ranging from 0.40 to 0.82 RMB per watt-hour [27]. - The demand for energy storage remains strong, particularly in overseas markets, contributing to price stability [26].

Group 1: Market Strategy - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" supported by continuous policy efforts and increased capital inflows, with historical trends indicating such rallies occur almost every year in the A-share market [5] - Economic growth is anticipated to remain within a reasonable range, further solidifying the foundation for the capital market's prosperity [5] - Focus on growth and consumer sectors for industry allocation, with a specific emphasis on the commercial aerospace concept during market dips [5] Group 2: Lithium Industry - Major lithium producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to support lithium prices and improve the supply-demand balance, with carbon lithium inventory decreasing for 19 consecutive weeks [6] - The demand for energy storage is projected to boost expectations for the industry, leading to a favorable supply-demand outlook for 2026 [6] Group 3: Copper Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need for enhanced management and optimization of the copper smelting industry, which is expected to support copper prices despite a decrease in cable enterprise operating rates [7] - The supply-demand situation for copper remains tight, leading to a positive outlook for copper prices [7] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - The oil and petrochemical index saw a 15.1% increase in 2025, with strong stock performance expected from major oil companies and related engineering firms [8] - The coal chemical industry is anticipated to improve profitability due to declining coal prices and accelerated industrial upgrades [8] Group 5: Basic Chemical Industry - The basic chemical industry recorded a 41.4% increase in 2025, ranking fifth among all industries, with expectations for supply-demand optimization and recovery in profitability in 2026 [9] - Strong growth momentum is anticipated in new chemical materials driven by demand from AI, OLED, and robotics [9] Group 6: New Energy and Environmental Protection - Key areas for investment during the current spring rally include AIDC power storage, lithium batteries, and hydrogen ammonia, with significant potential for overseas orders in AIDC power [9] - The supply-side changes in lithium carbonate and the anticipated domestic energy storage tenders in 2026 are expected to enhance price support [9]