Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors remain the primary driver in the current oil market, with significant attention on the potential for conflict between the US and Iran. The market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $8-10 per barrel related to Iran [15][17]. - The report anticipates that if the situation with Iran does not escalate into a full-blown conflict, oil prices may revert to supply-demand fundamentals, potentially leading to a price decline [15][17]. - The report highlights that the recent cold wave and reduced production in Kazakhstan have slowed the accumulation of global inventories, with expectations of a return to a higher accumulation rate in the coming weeks [17][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a weekly increase of +7.95%, with specific indices such as the oil and gas resources index rising by +7.79% and the oil and gas extraction services index by +7.96% [10][11]. Oil Sector - As of January 29, WTI crude oil was priced at $65.42, up by $6.06, while Brent crude was at $72.57, up by $6.60. The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels [16][17]. - The report notes that US crude oil production stands at 13.696 million barrels per day, with a decrease in net imports by 61.8% [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries was reported at 80.02%, with a slight increase of 1.24 percentage points from the previous week. The average refining margin for major refineries was 659.83 yuan per ton, down by 101.65 yuan per ton [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has increased to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees at 374.32 yuan per ton. The report indicates a decline in profitability for polyester products, with average profit levels for various types of polyester showing negative margins [16]. Olefins Sector - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33%. The propylene market saw an increase in average transaction prices to 6400 yuan per ton, up by 3.64% [16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a rapid increase in prices due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran's potential actions in the Strait of Hormuz, with a risk premium estimated at $8-10 per barrel [15][16]. - The overall supply remains in excess, with previous supportive factors like cold weather and reduced production in Kazakhstan starting to stabilize [15]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across various segments of the petrochemical industry, with oil and gas resources showing a +7.79% increase, while the polyester index decreased by -1.82% [10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The petrochemical sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with various indices showing significant weekly changes, including the oil and gas extraction service index at +7.96% and the refining and chemical index at +6.75% [10][11]. Oil Market - As of January 29, WTI crude oil closed at $65.42, up $6.06 from the previous week, while Brent crude closed at $72.57, up $6.60 [16]. - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels, with a notable drop in gasoline inventories as well [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries increased to 80.02%, with a slight rise in gasoline demand due to seasonal travel [16]. - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 659.83 yuan per ton, down 101.65 yuan from the previous period [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has risen to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees reported at 374.32 yuan per ton [15]. - The report notes a decline in profitability for various polyester products, with average profit levels for POY150D at -21.03 yuan per ton [15]. Olefins Market - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [15]. - Propylene prices in Shandong increased by 225 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.64% rise [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural chemical industry is entering a period of layout opportunities, driven by the increasing importance of food security amid geopolitical fluctuations. The focus is on enhancing planting efficiency through technological empowerment [8] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of leading companies in the agricultural chemical sector, particularly those focused on technology services, including plant growth regulators, compound fertilizers, and pesticide formulations [3][8] - The report highlights the recovery opportunities in various sub-sectors of the chemical industry, including MDI, PVC, and refining, with specific companies recommended for investment [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Agricultural Chemical Sector - The report identifies growth opportunities in the agricultural chemical sector, particularly for companies that provide technology-driven services. Key areas include: 1. Plant growth regulators, which are characterized by low usage, high effectiveness, and cost efficiency, are seen as essential for modern agriculture [8] 2. Compound fertilizers are crucial for providing precise nutrient ratios to crops, with room for growth in China's compound fertilizer application rates compared to developed countries [8] 3. The potential for Chinese pesticide formulation companies to expand internationally, breaking the monopoly of traditional multinational corporations [8] Chemical Industry Recovery - The report notes a positive outlook for the recovery of various chemical sub-sectors, including: - MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) [3] - PVC industry players such as Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated) and Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated) [3] - Refining sector leaders like Sinopec (600028, Buy) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy) [3] - The report anticipates continued price increases for high-energy products, particularly in the PVC sector, due to supply constraints and structural demand shifts [8]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报： 春节前终端需求减弱叠加工人返乡增多，织机开机率下滑 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2404元/吨，环比-32元/吨（环比-1%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1092元/吨，环比-44元/吨（环比-4%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6900/7143/8064元/吨，环比分别+179/+179/+207元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为-66/-171/-156元/吨，环比分别-37/-37/-18元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 14.0/15.7/20.0天，环比分别+0.1/-0.8/-1.2天，长丝开工率为86.1%，环比-2.5pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率 为42.4%，环比-8. ...

2026 年 2 月 1 日 行业研究 地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度 ——石油化工行业周报第 438 期（20260126—20260201） 要点 地缘局势紧张抬升油价，预计 26 年油价或在 60-80 美元/桶区间宽幅震荡。 本周伊朗地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，布伦特、WTI 原油期货价格分别报收 69.83、65.74 美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨 6.7%、7.3%。全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治 的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。此外，考虑到：（1）美国页岩油边际 成本高企，25Q1 调查边际成本约为 65 美元/桶，有望成为原油供给端边际减 量；（2）OPEC+于 26Q1 暂缓增产，体现其平衡油价诉求，长期来看 OPEC+ 各国财政依赖原油销售收入，中高油价诉求有望持续；（3）26 年原油需求预 期向好，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油需求增长 93 万桶/日，高于 2025 年的 85 万桶/日。我们认为油价未来将在 60-80 美元区间宽幅震荡，油价中高位运行 有望为石化板块景气奠定基础。 全球深 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The cost support for the chemical products and polyester industry chain is strong, leading to price increases [2] - Domestic key refining project price difference is 2537.18 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 18.62 CNY/ton (+0.74%) as of January 30, 2026 [3] - International oil prices have shown a significant increase, with Brent and WTI prices at 70.69 and 65.21 USD/barrel respectively, reflecting increases of 4.81 and 4.14 USD/barrel [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The geopolitical situation involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine has influenced oil prices, with a notable increase in geopolitical risk premiums due to US military actions in the Middle East [2] - Domestic refined oil prices have shown slight fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6265.14, 7535.14, and 5183.14 CNY/ton respectively [2] - The price difference between domestic refined oil and crude oil has decreased, indicating a potential impact on profitability [2] Chemical Sector - The chemical products sector is experiencing strong cost support, with price differences for pure benzene and styrene continuing to rise due to robust cost support and expected maintenance in overseas markets [2] - The polyester industry chain has seen comprehensive price increases, driven by enhanced cost support and market sentiment [2] - The market for nylon has seen price adjustments, although the price difference has slightly narrowed [2] Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock price performance of six major private refining companies shows varied results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical increasing by 7.51% and Dongfang Shenghong by 16.48% over the past week [2] - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has increased by 31.81%, indicating strong market performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical plans to increase its investment in Wanhua Olefins Company by 19.086 billion yuan, consolidating its ethylene-related assets to enhance operational management and competitiveness in the carbon two industry [2][3]. Group 1: Investment and Capital Structure - The capital increase includes 1 billion yuan added to registered capital and 18.086 billion yuan to capital reserves, raising Wanhua Olefins' registered capital from 3 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan, maintaining its status as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wanhua Chemical [3]. - The total investment of 19.086 billion yuan consists of 1.4586 billion yuan in ethylene integration assets and 4.5 billion yuan in debt claims [2]. Group 2: Operational Enhancements - Wanhua Olefins Company focuses on the olefin industry chain and has successfully resumed production of qualified products from its 1 million tons/year ethylene unit after a recent technical upgrade [4]. - The upgrade shifts the raw material route from propane (C3) cracking to a more cost-effective ethane (C2) cracking, marking a significant transition in Wanhua Chemical's "Big Ethylene" strategy towards cost reduction and efficiency [4]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Prospects - By the end of 2025, China's ethylene production capacity is expected to exceed 62 million tons/year, accounting for approximately 25% of global capacity, positioning China as the largest ethylene producer [6]. - Despite a significant increase in production capacity, the C2 industry chain faces severe supply-demand imbalances, with many products experiencing weak market conditions [6]. - Wanhua Chemical is also developing high-end polyolefin materials, with a current production capacity of 200,000 tons/year for POE and plans for expansion to 600,000 tons/year [7].

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中国无人驾驶"军团"，"武装"阿布扎比 （记者 曾健辉） 截至2025年11月30日，除本次董事会审议的担保事项外，公司及控股子公司对合并报表外单位提供的担 保总余额为7亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的2.83%，无逾期担保。 每经AI快讯，恒逸石化1月30日晚间发布公告称，海南逸盛是恒逸石化与荣盛石化合作投资建设的国内 大型PTA、瓶片生产企业，海南逸盛注册资本为人民币458,000万元，其中公司的子公司恒逸贸易出资 229,000万元，占海南逸盛注册资本的50%；荣盛石化的子公司逸盛投资出资229,000万元，占海南逸盛 注册资本的50%。 公司及其子公司拟为海南逸盛提供人民币综合授信担保，合计金额不超过120,000万元，担保期限为1 年。根据担保要求并经各方协调，恒逸贸易作为海南逸盛的股东拟通过公司及其子公司为海南逸盛提供 担保，其他股东逸盛投资未对海南逸盛提供对应股权比例的相等担保或反担保。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from the "dual carbon" policy implementation [5]. Core Insights - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to significantly impact the chemical industry, with a focus on carbon emissions control becoming a rigid constraint during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][14]. - The report identifies that the attention towards "dual carbon" from provincial leaders has increased by 137% since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards carbon emissions as a critical performance metric [7][18]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo structural changes, with high carbon intensity sectors facing supply constraints, while low-carbon leaders are expected to benefit from the transition [8][30]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan": Carbon Peak Closing Battle - Local carbon assessments may treat carbon emissions as an equally important rigid constraint [15]. - High carbon intensity sectors such as ammonia fertilizer, coal chemical, and chlorine-alkali are likely to face capacity constraints first [29][30]. 2. Petrochemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to undergo a transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand structures [38]. - Refining sector dynamics are shifting towards improved supply-demand balance due to stringent approval processes for new projects and the elimination of high-energy-consuming capacities [38]. 3. Basic Chemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - Coal chemical industry is projected to stabilize supply under carbon limits, driving quality improvements in the sector [3.1]. - Carbon fiber and fluorochemical sectors are expected to benefit from process optimization and green transitions [3.2][3.3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of leading companies: 1. Integrated leaders in the oil chemical sector with scale and efficiency advantages [8]. 2. Coal chemical leaders with advanced processes and low emissions [8]. 3. High-quality firms in fluorochemical and carbon fiber sectors that align with "dual carbon" goals [8].

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