长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-11-24 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：上行压力较大，预计区间震荡 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：11月21日塑料主力合约收盘价6770元/吨，环比-1.21%。LDPE均价为9033.33元/吨，环比-0.91%，HDPE均价 为7457元/吨，环比-1.00%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7260.59元/吨，环比-0.44%。LLDPE华南基差收于490.59元/ 吨，环比+11.66%，1-5月差-62元/吨（+17）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6357元/吨，较上周末-117元/吨，环比-1.81%.生意 社聚丙烯现货价报收6406.67元/吨（-80）。PP基差收50元/吨（+37），1-5月差-117元/吨（-16）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率82.71%，较上周-0.71个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量67.03万吨，环比- 0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - favorable expectations support the rubber price to steadily rise tentatively. Some cis - butadiene rubber plants are planned for scheduled rotation maintenance, but the overall operating rate is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 20, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber was in a stalemate, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened, driving the supply and market prices to rise slightly, but downstream resistance to price increases emerged [6]. - The report also presents price data of various synthetic rubber products such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, including ex - factory prices and market prices, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Butadiene: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 115,600 tons (a 1.75% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.53%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while Guangxi Petrochemical stably increased production, leading to an overall increase in total production [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhenhua New Materials restarted, the cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance, and the cis - butadiene plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to undergo regular maintenance next week. The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber production last week was 29,200 tons (a 3.88% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.64% [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - Semi - steel tires: The semi - steel tire market remained stable during the period. The all - season tire market was still dull, with channels mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and the inventory clearance rhythm did not change significantly. The supply of winter tires was abundant, and terminal sales advanced steadily [3]. - All - steel tires: This week, the all - steel tire market was relatively stable compared to last week, with weak trading. Due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand weakened, channel inventory was relatively sufficient, and merchants' willingness to restock was limited. However, as inventory is digested and monthly purchase tasks are due, agents are still expected to make purchases in the next cycle [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Butadiene: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 39,800 tons, a 37.24% increase from the previous week. Most refinery plants were operating stably, but some enterprises' inventory increased due to downstream load and external sales trading rhythm. Port inventory increased due to relatively concentrated vessel arrivals and slow spot price increases [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 31,510 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. Raw material buyers were actively following up, the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, production enterprise inventory increased, and trading enterprise inventory changed slightly [3]. 3.4 Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 335 yuan/ton, in East China was - 135 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 85 yuan/ton [3]. - Spread/Price Ratio: The RU - BR spread was 4855 yuan/ton (a 1.78% increase); the NR - BR spread was 1900 yuan/ton (a 4.40% increase); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.21 [3]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - Butadiene: The production gross profit from butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1514 yuan/ton, and that from C4 extraction was 194.88 yuan/ton [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 784 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 7.91% [3]. 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The US Department of Labor reported that the non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Department of Labor also revised down the non - farm payroll data for July and August [3]. - US sanctions on top Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21 [3]. - There are expectations that China and the US will reach an agreement to reduce tariffs on November 27 [3]. - Delegations from Ukraine and the US will hold consultations in Switzerland on the parameters of a possible future peace agreement with Russia [3]. - China has taken counter - measures due to remarks by the Japanese Prime Minister on the Taiwan issue, leading to a deterioration in Sino - Japanese relations [3]. 3.7 Investment Views and Trading Strategies - Investment View: The overall operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitical situations [3].

A股三大股指11月24日集体高开。盘初快速下挫后，三大股指早盘震荡下行转跌。午后反转，三大股指直线拉升转涨，但尾盘出现了跳水。 社会服务涨幅居前，君亭酒店（301073）、实朴检测（301228）、中国高科（600730）、国脉科技（002093）等涨停或涨超10%，创业黑马 （300688）、豆神教育（300010）、安车检测（300572）等涨超4%。 石油石化高开低走领跌两市，和顺石油（603353）跌超5%，中国海油（600938）、中国石油（601857）、荣盛石化（002493）、中国石化 （600028）等跌超2%。 煤炭股跌幅靠前，安泰集团（600408）、美锦能源（000723）、晋控煤业（601001）等跌超2%，大有能源（600403）、中国神华（601088）等跌 超1%。 从盘面上看，军工、卫星导航、低空经济、AI应用、云计算、6G、电商概念股表现活跃；锂电池产业链再度回调，锂矿方向领跌；海南本地股走 弱。 至收盘，上证综指涨0.05%，报3836.77点；科创50指数涨0.84%，报1296.6点；深证成指涨0.37%，报12585.08点；创业板指涨0.31%，报2929.04 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 国家知识产权局信息显示，中国石油天然气股份有限公司取得一项名为"一种炼化生产计划优化的方 法、装置及应用"的专利，授权公告号CN 120069145 B，申请日期为2023年11月。 天眼查资料显示，中国石油天然气股份有限公司，成立于1999年，位于北京市，是一家以从事石油和天 然气开采业为主的企业。企业注册资本18302097万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油天然气股 份有限公司共对外投资了1293家企业，参与招投标项目443次，财产线索方面有商标信息38条，专利信 息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可168个。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the rapid growth of liquid cooling technologies, particularly immersion cooling, as essential for meeting the demands of modern data centers driven by the explosion of artificial intelligence technology [8][9] - It highlights the significant market potential for liquid cooling solutions in China, projecting the liquid cooling server market to reach $2.37 billion in 2024, a 67% increase from 2023, and expects the market to exceed 180 billion RMB by 2030 [8] Industry Trends - The article discusses the transition from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling methods, with immersion cooling being recognized for its superior thermal conductivity and energy efficiency [8] - It notes the challenges faced by the domestic immersion cooling technology, including the need for localization of core materials and overcoming technical bottlenecks in dual-phase cooling systems [9] Market Opportunities - The article outlines the expected growth of the liquid cooling materials market, estimating it to reach between 36 billion to 45 billion RMB [8] - It mentions various technological routes for cooling liquids, including fluorinated liquids, synthetic oils, and bio-based coolants, indicating a diverse landscape of innovation [8] Event Information - The first "Cooling Liquid and Liquid Cooling Technology Forum" is scheduled for November 27-28, 2025, in Wuzhen, Zhejiang, focusing on material innovation and the commercial application of efficient liquid cooling technologies [9][18] - The forum aims to gather leading companies and research institutions to discuss breakthroughs in materials, technological advancements, and application scenarios [9][18]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the complexity of challenges and opportunities faced by enterprises in a rapidly evolving global industrial landscape, driven by digital transformation, supply chain restructuring, policy changes, and upgraded market demands [3]. Group 1: Industry Focus - The electronic and semiconductor industry is characterized by rapid technological updates and is influenced by global digital economy growth and geopolitical factors. The research team provides insights into wafer manufacturing, packaging testing, and equipment materials to help clients maintain technological leadership [4]. - The mechanical equipment industry is undergoing a deep transformation towards digital systems driven by smart manufacturing and automation trends. Research focuses on production models, supply chain structures, and overseas market expansion to identify digital transformation opportunities [5]. - The chemical and new materials industry faces higher demands for green transformation and sustainable development. The research team explores innovations in production processes and downstream market changes to help companies find breakthroughs under policy and market pressures [5]. - The automotive and rail transit industry is being redefined by the rise of electric vehicles and smart transportation. Research covers battery supply chains, autonomous driving, and smart cockpit technologies to assist manufacturers in strategic planning [5]. - The renewable energy sector is becoming a core growth driver amid the "dual carbon" strategy and global energy transition. Research focuses on breakthroughs in materials and equipment, battery technology, and smart grid systems to help companies seize opportunities in the low-carbon economy [5]. - The pharmaceutical and medical industry is rapidly growing due to aging populations and increased health demands. Research spans from raw materials to high-end formulations, providing market data and insights for pharmaceutical companies and healthcare institutions [5]. - The consumer goods industry is experiencing rapid iteration driven by consumption upgrades and digital retail. Research analyzes market size, consumer behavior, and supply chain management to support sustainable growth strategies [5]. - The software and services industry has evolved into a key driver of economic and social development, with a focus on cloud computing, big data, and AI. Research helps clients understand the transition from "tool software" to "platform ecosystems" [5]. Group 2: Customized Solutions - The company offers three core service models to meet diverse client needs: standardized research reports, customized research solutions, and strategic consulting with deep collaboration [6][8][9]. - Standardized research reports provide comprehensive industry data, market size forecasts, competitive landscape analysis, and policy environment interpretations to help clients quickly understand the industry [7]. - Customized research solutions are tailored to specific client needs, such as entering new markets or evaluating new technologies, ensuring alignment with strategic goals [8]. - Strategic consulting involves long-term collaboration, where the company acts as a strategic advisor, participating in the strategy formulation process and continuously updating market information [9]. Group 3: Professional Service Capabilities - The company's professional service capabilities include in-depth research across the entire industry chain, from raw materials to end-user applications, and from technological trends to market models [10]. - The company maintains an international perspective, tracking global market dynamics to assist clients in developing globalization strategies [10]. - Emphasis is placed on the practical application of research, ensuring that solutions are feasible and actionable, enabling clients to find breakthroughs in complex environments [10].

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum experienced a decline of 0.89% in stock price on November 21, with a trading volume of 2.239 billion yuan, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Financing Summary - On November 21, China Petroleum had a financing buy-in amount of 160 million yuan and a financing repayment of 199 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 38.61 million yuan [1] - The total financing and securities lending balance for China Petroleum reached 2.137 billion yuan as of November 21, with the current financing balance of 2.115 billion yuan accounting for 0.13% of the circulating market value, which is below the 10% percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing level [1] Securities Lending Summary - On November 21, China Petroleum repaid 261,700 shares in securities lending and sold 170,900 shares, with the selling amount calculated at 1.7141 million yuan based on the closing price [1] - The remaining securities lending volume stood at 2.2451 million shares, with a securities lending balance of 22.5184 million yuan, which exceeds the 80% percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level of securities lending [1] Company Overview - China Petroleum and Natural Gas Corporation, established on November 5, 1999, and listed on November 5, 2007, is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, production, transportation, and sales of crude oil and natural gas, as well as renewable energy [2] - The company's revenue composition includes refining products (69.64%), crude oil (43.27%), natural gas (39.98%), chemical products (8.78%), and other segments [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, China Petroleum reported a revenue of 2.169256 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 126.279 billion yuan, down 4.71% year-on-year [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, China Petroleum had 503,900 shareholders, an increase of 4.46% from the previous period, with an average of 324,618 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 4.33% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation, holding 1.02 billion shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 521 million shares, which saw a reduction of 336 million shares compared to the previous period [3]

Core Insights - Yunnan Province has steadily promoted the opening of environmental protection facilities to the public, resulting in an increasing number of open units, more diverse forms of engagement, and heightened public enthusiasm for environmental protection [1][2][3] Group 1: Public Engagement and Participation - From January 2021 to the present, Yunnan Province's environmental protection facilities have conducted a total of 1,460 public visits, attracting 186,000 participants through both online and offline formats [1] - Various ecological environment bureaus have organized targeted visits for different groups, including party members, representatives, and students, to enhance awareness and responsibility for environmental protection [2] Group 2: Thematic and Event-Based Openings - Environmental facilities have been opened to the public during significant events such as National Security Education Day and World Environment Day, focusing on themes like water resource protection and waste disposal [1][2] - The China National Petroleum Corporation's Yunnan Petrochemical Company has established a training base for environmental law enforcement and has become a national model for public engagement in the petrochemical sector [1] Group 3: Innovative Outreach Methods - Environmental bureaus have adopted a combination of online and offline methods for public engagement, utilizing platforms like Douyin for live broadcasts and creating VR videos to enhance participation [3] - The promotional video "Director Takes You into Environmental Facilities" produced by Kunming City has garnered over 100,000 views, demonstrating the effectiveness of innovative outreach [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the establishment of a world-class enterprise evaluation index system for state-owned enterprises across 16 industries, aimed at promoting the construction of more world-class enterprises in China [1] - The first batch of evaluation index systems was released in November 2024, covering 11 industries, followed by a second batch of 5 industries in November 2025 [1] - The evaluation index system includes industries such as electric power, oil and gas exploration, telecommunications, automotive, metallurgy, aviation, mining, equipment manufacturing, shipping, construction, petroleum refining, pharmaceuticals, building materials, logistics, inspection and testing [1] Group 2 - A total of 45 central enterprises participated in the evaluation, with 13 enterprises, including China National Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and State Grid, ranking in the top tier of their respective industries [1] - The evaluation results indicate that central enterprises are making solid progress in building world-class enterprises [1] - The evaluation is based on data from the year 2024, assessing the construction of world-class enterprises across the 16 industries [1] Group 3 - The article outlines the construction of the evaluation index system, detailing the calculation methods for various indicators such as operating income, total assets, and net profit [2][3] - Key indicators include operating income, total assets, net profit, and return on equity, which are essential for assessing the competitiveness and efficiency of enterprises [2][3] - The evaluation system aims to provide a comprehensive framework for measuring the performance and competitiveness of state-owned enterprises in various sectors [2][3]

Core Insights - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has shown a slight increase of 0.03% as of November 24, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Bomeike (603727) up 5.58% and China Merchants Energy (601872) up 4.68% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF (159697) increased by 0.26%, with the latest price at 1.14 yuan [1] - The index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to Huatai Securities, the demand from oil-producing countries remains focused on value rather than volume, suggesting that OPEC+ may sacrifice prices in the short term to gain market share [1] - The Brent crude oil price is expected to be supported around $60 per barrel due to pressures for rebalancing and the impact of North American shale oil costs, particularly before the acceleration of global energy transition and increased supply from South America [1] - High-dividend energy leading companies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, as well as growth in natural gas business, may present investment opportunities [1] Group 3: Index Composition - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index include China National Petroleum (601857), China Petroleum & Chemical (600028), and China National Offshore Oil (600938), collectively accounting for 65.09% of the index [2]