| 五、宏观信息 | | | --- | --- | | 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊2月28日上午遇袭身亡，伊朗政府宣布40天全国哀悼，将很快选举最高领袖。美国总统特朗普表示，对伊朗的军事行动可能持续四周左 | | | 右。特朗普称，伊朗新领导层希望恢复谈判，他已同意进行对话。当被问及对话时间时，特朗普表示，不便透露。此次冲突升级，冲击中东地区金融市场，伊 | | | 朗股市暂停交易。3月1日，沙特证交所全股指数收跌2.18%，埃及证交所EGX30价格指数下跌2.5%，阿曼和巴林股市走弱。 | | | 外交部长王毅应约同俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫通电话。王毅表示，在中俄推动下，联合国安理会就当前伊朗局势举行紧急会议。王毅指出，中方的立场是：第一， | | | 立即停止军事行动。防止战火蔓延和外溢，避免局势发展到不可收拾的地步。中方重视海湾国家安全，支持他们保持克制态度。第二，尽快重回对话谈判。各 | | | 方应强力劝和阻战，敦促当事方尽快重返对话谈判轨道。第三，共同反对单边行径。未经联合国安理会授权对主权国家大打出手，破坏二战之后建立的和平根 | | | 基。国际社会应当发出明确、清晰声音，反对世界倒退回丛林法则。 | ...

· 国都港股操作导航 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 48977.92 | -1.05 | | 标普 500 指数 | 6878.88 | -0.43 | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 22668.21 | -0.92 | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 10910.55 | 0.59 | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 25284.26 | -0.02 | | 日经 225 指数 | 58850.27 | 0.16 | | 台湾加权指数 | 35414.49 | 0 | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 4162.88 | 0.39 | | 深证成指 | 14495.09 | -0.06 | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 26630.54 | 0.95 | | 国企指数 | 8859.49 | 0.51 | | 红筹指数 | 4439.65 | 0.63 | | 恒生科技指数 | 5137.84 | 0.56 | | AH 股溢价指数 | 118.17 | -0.54 | | 恒生期货 (3 月) | 26465 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（34）期 发布日期：2026-03-02 | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 | | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/3/2 | 2026/3/1 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,078.00 | 1,093.50 | -15.50 | -1.417 | | | 焦炭 | 1,624.50 | 1,635.50 | -11.0 | -0.673 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,990.00 | 17,155.00 | -165.0 | -0.962 | | | 20号胶 | 13,655.00 | 13,765.00 | -110.0 | -0.799 | | | 塑料 | 6,633.00 | 6,597.00 | 36.0 | 0.546 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,641.00 | 6 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20260301 美股:英伟达"交卷"，美伊局势"搅局"— —美股周观点 [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（2026 年 2 月 23 日-2026 年 2 月 27 日）市场回顾：新兴市场继续上涨（2.8%）， 发达市场零涨幅。 美股：本周道指领跌，下跌 1.3%，纳指下跌 1.0%，标普下跌 0.4%。行业上，公共事 业、日常消费品领涨，金融、工业领跌。标普 500 成份股上涨占比 58%，其中德科 技、派拉蒙、亚安、奈飞、戴尔科技等领涨。 美股冲高回落，整体收跌。美股 AI 进入验证期，美伊紧张局势反复，导致美股市场 本周呈现冲高回落的走势，三大指数全周均录得下跌。具体来看： 其一，英伟达财报尚未完全缓解 AI 焦虑。尽管英伟达财报超预期，持续释放积极信 号，包括 Networking 业务表现强劲，以及英伟达在每瓦推理性能方面的领先优势， 推理的 Token 增长将推动 CSP 收入增长等。但亮眼业绩难掩市场对 AI 泡沫的担忧， 市场对 2027 年数据仍存焦虑。市场对超大规模企业的资本支出何时见顶以及英伟达 盈利触顶心存疑虑。 其二，美伊局势紧张 ...

四维图新 20260226 公司战略转型 Tier 1 供应商，从地图商向软硬件一体化解决方案提供商 转型，历时三年，产品以中低阶智驾方案为主，2026 年将正式量产交 付中高阶智驾方案，形成全栈智驾系统交付能力。 通过 2.5 亿元现金+智驾子公司资产作价的方式，获得建智机器人 39% 股权成为第一大股东，合并智驾团队与建智算法团队，形成 500-600 人 规模的智驾方案交付团队，承担全产品线交付。 智驾芯片方面，延续与地平线的合作，同时保留跨平台能力，支持地平 线和高通方案，面向 2026 年以后量产的订单仍以地平线全系合作为主。 客户结构上，低阶产品客户包括比亚迪、北汽、长城，通过整合滴滴智 驾团队补齐舱泊算法能力，新增东风客户，国际品牌客户方面，广丰成 为主要下单主体，G6B 为广丰采用地平线芯片的全球车型首发项目，计 划在 2026 年上半年量产。 2024-2025 年智驾收入增长受单一车企集中量产节奏影响，2026 年后 客户结构多元化，预计至少 4 家车厂同时进入量产周期，2025 年智驾 收入约 2 亿元。 Q&A 2025 年以来，公司从地图商向面向 OEM 的软硬一体 Tier 1 转 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI industry and gaming sectors, indicating that recent market corrections may present better investment opportunities [12] - E-commerce sector shows mixed results, with Alibaba leading in AI advancements but facing pessimistic revenue growth expectations, leading to stock price fluctuations [16] - Social entertainment media, particularly Tencent and Bilibili, are expected to maintain strong growth, with Bilibili's advertising growth likely to outperform the overall internet advertising market [16] Group 2: E-commerce Insights - Alibaba's AI developments are significant, with the launch of the Qwen 3.5-Plus model, which has shown competitive performance at a lower cost, enhancing its market position [13] - Meituan is expected to face challenges due to intense competition in the food delivery sector, impacting profitability in the short term [16] Group 3: Gaming Sector Insights - The gaming sector is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook, with new product launches expected to drive growth in 2026 [14] - Companies like Century Huatong and Perfect World are highlighted for their strong product pipelines and potential for revenue growth [18] Group 4: AI Developments - The report notes a growing concern about AI's impact on traditional industries, with a shift in market focus towards model technology pricing and capabilities [20] - The upcoming second quarter of 2026 is expected to see a new wave of model iterations, with domestic models catching up rapidly [20] Group 5: Advertising and Marketing - The advertising sector is seeing increased activity, with companies like Focus Media ramping up ad placements, particularly in consumer goods ahead of major events like the World Cup [18] - AI marketing is gaining traction, with companies like Titanium Technology preparing for an IPO, indicating strong growth potential in this area [19] Group 6: Media and Entertainment - The long video sector is stabilizing, with companies exploring new business avenues, while short video platforms like Kuaishou are benefiting from technological advancements [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of content production capabilities and project pipelines for companies in the film and television industry [19]

Group 1 - The report highlights a peak in lock-up expirations in March 2026, with a total of HKD 87.2 billion in lock-up shares set to be released, primarily affecting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, tea beverages, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [4][33] - The upcoming earnings disclosure deadline for Hong Kong companies, particularly those with fiscal years aligned with the calendar year, is expected to exert downward pressure on stock performance, with many companies required to announce preliminary results by March 31 [4][39] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of military conflicts involving Iran, are noted as a secondary factor impacting market sentiment, although the overall effect on Hong Kong stocks may be limited due to a prevailing bullish trend in global risk assets [4][45] Group 2 - The report suggests that the period from mid to late March 2026 may present an opportunity for negative sentiment to dissipate, as the peak of the aforementioned pressures passes [4][50] - The performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to improve as major companies within the index are likely to report earnings by mid to late March, potentially alleviating market concerns [5][39] - The potential visit of former President Trump to China at the end of March to early April could also positively influence market sentiment [5][52] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market does not exhibit a significant seasonal effect post-Chinese New Year, with the Hang Seng Index showing only a 46.7% probability of rising during this period over the past 15 years [7][13] - The report emphasizes that the recent appreciation of the Renminbi is not driven by domestic economic fundamentals, which may lead to a divergence between currency strength and Hong Kong stock performance [20][21] - The report notes that the core variable influencing foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks is the expectation of China's economic fundamentals rather than short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate [21][22]

本周观点 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，整体咖啡行业价格竞争趋缓；阿 拉比卡咖啡期货价格持续下跌，后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台 AI 流量大战，奶茶成为 引流品，数据依旧具备韧性；但有关"糖税"征收相关研究讨论引发市场担忧。 电商：持续承压。受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商基本面表现平淡。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放。 网易云音乐 2025 年收入略微不及预期，关注 2026 年音乐订阅业务有望量价齐升。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：地缘冲突风险加剧，币价持续承压。香港 2026-2027 年度财政预算案确认香港年内将 提交法案，建立虚拟资产交易商及托管服务提供者的发牌制度，监管范围将进一步扩展至场外交易等数字资产买 卖业务。 汽车服务：IAM中，多家主机系汽服连锁蛰伏后市场，车后连锁品牌持续加码开店 ...

纳指跌1.18%！美股重挫，英伟达领跌，中概股普跌 熬夜看美股的朋友，昨晚估计都没睡踏实。前半夜还在盼着AI龙头再冲一波，后半夜直接被大盘砸懵，三大指数集体走弱，科技股成了重灾区，连 常年坚挺的英伟达都罕见大跌，整个市场一片绿油油，看得人心里拔凉拔凉。 本来以为只是小幅震荡调整，没想到跌得这么干脆利落，纳指直接跌超1%，芯片股、科技股全线躺平，中概股也没能独善其身，跟着一起回调。多 少投资者本想赚点海外市场的收益，结果一夜之间账户缩水，关灯吃面的段子又在投资圈里刷屏。 一、美股全线翻车！纳指跌1.18%，科技股集体躺平 据纳斯达克交易所官方数据，美东时间2月26日，纳斯达克综合指数单日大跌1.18%，收盘报22878.38点，单日蒸发273.7点，科技股成为下跌绝对主 力，把整个美股市场都拖入调整行情。标普500指数同步下跌0.54%，只有道琼斯指数勉强微涨0.03%，勉强维持一点面子。 大跌的核心原因很简单，利好出尽+资金获利了结。英伟达最新财报业绩亮眼，但市场早已提前透支涨幅，高位筹码松动，资金集中出逃。同时， 公司大额长期采购承诺引发市场对成本与需求持续性的担忧，双重压力下，股价直接大幅跳水。 英伟达作 ...

Company Overview - ATRenew Inc. is the leading player in China's pre-owned consumer electronics recycling market, operating the largest network in this niche [2] - The company has developed a vertically integrated platform that includes sourcing through AHS Recycle, B2B distribution via PJT Marketplace, and B2C sales through Paipai, transforming a fragmented ecosystem into a standardized marketplace [2] Operational Scale and Efficiency - ATRenew operates over 2,000 stores and eight operation centers across nearly 300 cities, creating significant economies of scale and indirect network effects [3] - The company's data flywheel enhances pricing accuracy and operational efficiency over time, supported by strategic partnerships with major platforms like JD.com and Apple [3] Financial Performance - ATRenew has demonstrated strong financial momentum, with revenue growth exceeding 27% and earnings expanding more than fourfold, driven by automation and improved scale economics [4] - The company is experiencing margin expansion and rising returns on invested capital [4] Market Potential - The long-term growth potential is substantial, as China's mobile device recycling rate is only around 2%, indicating significant room for penetration [5] - Expansion into multi-category recycling and selective international opportunities provides additional growth options [5] Valuation and Market Perception - The market undervalues ATRenew due to perceptions of recycling as a low-quality industry, leading to modest valuation multiples despite its growth profile and competitive advantages [6] - Continued earnings execution and improving profitability could lead to a sentiment rerating, presenting a compelling asymmetric investment opportunity with significant upside potential [6]