Group 1 - The current commodity market is transitioning from a "general rise" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][2] - Precious metals are leading the market, followed by industrial metals, while energy and chemical sectors are starting to rise from low levels [1][2] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy sources (crude oil, coal) is becoming evident, with the former experiencing tight supply and explosive demand, while the latter faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is more akin to a recovery phase rather than overheating, driven by demand growth from the AI technology revolution rather than traditional economic overheating [3] - The supply chain is shifting from a focus on efficiency to a focus on security, with resource country policies becoming key price drivers [3][4] - The recent price fluctuations in gold and silver are seen as corrections rather than reversals of long-term trends, with the long-term upward logic for these metals remaining intact [3][4] Group 3 - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a paradigm shift, with the strong performance of precious and strategic metals driven by structural narratives rather than robust global economic growth [5][6] - The traditional sequence of commodity price movements is being disrupted, with the new sequence being gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → electric infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [10][11] - The market is witnessing significant differentiation, with precious and non-ferrous metals showing strong performance while traditional economic growth-related sectors remain weak [10][11] Group 4 - The current commodity market is in a critical transition phase, similar to the 1970s, but with new variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [9][10] - The price resilience of commodities is stronger, but the volatility is also more extreme due to the combination of historical inflation and new demand drivers like AI and green transition [9][10] - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the new market dynamics and structural changes rather than relying on historical patterns [10][11]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格 6122 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6235 元/吨（+0），华南 瓶片价格 6250 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 973 手至 7.39 万手，空头持 仓减少 1425 手至 7.7 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 30.3 万吨，环比+0.38 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.4%，环比+0.8%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5662 元， 环比-151 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-26 元/吨，环比+22 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5. ...

Core Insights - The capacity of the futures market to serve the real economy has been widely recognized, with increasing market attractiveness and vitality [1][3] Group 1: Market Growth and Statistics - As of the end of January this year, the total funds in the futures market reached approximately 2.57 trillion yuan, a growth of about 20% compared to the end of 2025 [1] - The total number of effective clients in the market reached 2.78 million, an increase of 11% compared to 2024 [1] - In 2025, the total funds in the futures market are projected to be around 2.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a 32% growth from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Market Growth - The significant increase in effective client numbers is attributed to three main factors: heightened demand from enterprises for hedging price risks due to increased commodity price volatility, orderly entry of medium- to long-term funds, and continuous improvement in service quality within the futures industry [2] - The attractiveness of commodity funds has been enhanced, particularly in the precious metals sector, which has drawn a large number of traders into the market [2] - The diversification of futures and options products has met varied investor needs, with new strategic products introduced last year, providing more investment choices for various industries [2] Group 3: Client Composition and Market Dynamics - In 2025, a total of 940,000 new futures clients were opened, marking a significant increase from 2024, with special unit clients representing medium- to long-term funds showing a strong growth trend [3] - The increase in client numbers reflects the recognition of the futures market's ability to serve the real economy, driven by risk management needs and improved institutional environments [3] - The participation of individual investors is influenced by wealth effects, market service capabilities, and the demand for diversified asset allocation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The CME Group's margin adjustments, effective after the market close on February 6, are seen as an emergency response to extreme market conditions rather than a routine risk control measure, significantly impacting the global commodity market and investor operations [2][3]. Group 1: Margin Adjustments - The initial margin for non-high-risk accounts in gold futures has increased from 8% to 9%, while for high-risk accounts, it has risen from 8.8% to 9.9% [2]. - In silver futures, the initial margin for non-high-risk accounts has been raised from 15% to 18%, and for high-risk accounts, from 16.5% to 19.8% [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Experts believe that the high-frequency margin adjustments will lead to forced liquidations in precious metals and increased volatility, shifting the funding structure towards institutional dominance [3][4]. - The adjustments are a response to extreme price drops in precious metals, with silver experiencing a more than 35% drop on January 30, marking the largest single-day decline in 46 years [3]. Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The tightening of liquidity due to margin increases is expected to lead to short-term price crashes in precious metals, but mid-term volatility is likely to decrease as leverage is reduced [4]. - As investors focus more on fundamentals, the influence of pure sentiment and momentum trading will diminish, leading to a rational pricing logic for precious metals [4].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical factors and macroeconomic sentiment, leading to significant premium trading risks in domestic oil and gas funds, prompting warnings from major public fund institutions [2][4]. Group 1: Fund Company Announcements - Multiple fund companies, including Southern Fund, have issued risk warnings regarding their oil LOF products, highlighting that secondary market prices are significantly higher than net asset values, indicating a large premium [3][4]. - Southern Fund has issued multiple announcements regarding the premium risk of its Southern Oil Securities Investment Fund A class shares, noting a closing price of 1.397 yuan on February 2, 2026, compared to a net asset value of 1.2304 yuan on January 29, 2026 [3]. - Other fund companies, such as GF Fund and E Fund, have also issued similar warnings about their oil LOF products, indicating significant price deviations from net asset values [4]. Group 2: Premium Rate Trends - The premium rates of certain oil LOF funds have shown signs of cooling, with the Huaan S&P Global Oil Index Securities Investment Fund experiencing a drop in premium rates from over 40% to just 2.01% as of February 6 [5][6]. - The measures taken by public fund institutions to manage high premiums have begun to show initial effectiveness, as evidenced by the significant reduction in premium rates [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures - Starting from late January, several fund companies implemented a combination of "suspension" and "strict purchase limits" on their oil LOF products to manage the high premium situation [7][8]. - Specific measures included suspending trading for certain funds and drastically reducing purchase limits, with some funds lowering limits from 100 yuan to as low as 2 yuan [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the oil market will continue to face a supply surplus in the medium to long term, despite potential short-term geopolitical disruptions [9]. - Supply from OPEC+ is expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026, while global demand is projected to rise by only 0.8 to 1 million barrels per day, indicating a continued oversupply situation [9].

Report Overview - The report reviews the weekly market conditions of the domestic futures market from February 2 - 6, 2026, covering various sectors including agriculture, black commodities, energy and chemicals, and financial futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance this week, with more declining varieties than rising ones in the commodity futures market. Different sectors were affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and policy regulations [1]. Summary by Sector Agricultural Futures - **Corn**: The spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation, with the futures price rising 0.13% and closing at 2274 yuan/ton. Near - term, the spot market will be quiet due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to trade within a wide range. The 2603 contract has support at 2250 and short - term pressure at 2280 [4]. - **Pig**: The spot price was weak, with the average price on the 6th at 11.96 yuan/kg. The futures price of the 2603 contract dropped 3.21% to 10860 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the average price hovers around 12 yuan/kg. Near - month short positions were suggested to take profits, and far - month short positions were to test the lower support [5][6]. - **Egg**: The egg price dropped sharply and then stabilized, with the Hebei Guantao price at 2.96 yuan/jin on the 6th. The futures price of the 2603 contract fell 3.26% to 2904 yuan/500KG. In the short term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may continue to pressure the price. Mid - term, the supply pressure is postponed. Previously held short positions were advised to take profits below 3000, and now it's mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6]. - **Jujube**: The Xinjiang jujube trees are in dormancy, and the Hebei market price is stable. The futures price was weakly oscillating. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing the price, and the CJ605 contract is expected to seek historical low support. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The northern beet sugar production is nearly over, and the southern is in the peak season. After the Spring Festival stocking, there is no obvious positive support, but some overseas institutions' reduction of the 2026/27 global sugar surplus may boost the far - month price. It's expected to trade within a range next week [7]. - **Log**: The log futures market is complex. The downstream 3 - meter wood square price in Lanshan is rising, and radiation pine traders' quotes are firm. If the price transmission is smooth, the spot price may rise, and the futures market has some positive factors [7]. - **Apple**: The apple market is structurally differentiated. High - quality apples support the price in the long - term, while ordinary apples face sales pressure. Near the end of the Spring Festival, the market will continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [8]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, cotton supply is tightening, and demand is resilient. Brazilian exports are down, and Australian production is expected to decrease. US net signing and shipping volumes are stable. Domestically, the supply - demand pattern is stable, but demand is seasonally weakening. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract will oscillate between 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [8]. Black Commodities - **Steel Products**: The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 819.9 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 4.6% to 1337.75 million tons. Consumption decreased by 5.1%, with a significant drop in building materials and a slight increase in plates. The downstream winter - storage willingness is weak, and the price is expected to remain in the oscillation range before the Spring Festival, with 3050 as strong support for the rebar main contract [9][10]. - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. Domestic mine production decreased, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Iron water production remained stable, and steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost over. The first support for the main contract is 750, the second is 730, and the first pressure is 800, the second is 830 [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated sharply. The supply is decreasing as coal mines close for the holiday, but Mongolian coal imports are high. Steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost done, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the price fluctuated greatly. The US - Iran negotiation and the US manufacturing PMI affected the market sentiment. Before a conclusion on the US - Iran situation, the price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It was under pressure due to the decline of precious and non - ferrous metals and the strengthening of risk management by the exchange. With the approaching Spring Festival, long - position holders are more willing to close positions. It's expected to oscillate widely between 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and a short straddle option strategy can be considered [14]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is decreasing, and Iranian plants are resuming production. The downstream olefin plant operating rate is low, and the inland market is mainly for inventory clearance. It will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [15]. - **Urea**: The seasonal demand is starting, and the upstream inventory pressure is reducing. However, the high - supply situation remains. The price is expected to oscillate strongly within a key range, and investors can wait for price corrections to enter the market [15][16]. - **Bottle Chips**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the price followed the raw materials to oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the short - term. It's recommended to operate lightly within the 6100 - 6450 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillated weakly, with cost support from raw materials but weakening demand due to the approaching holiday. Synthetic rubber's BR main contract fell from a high level due to the weakening of raw material cost support and increased market supply. Both are expected to have a weak performance before the Spring Festival [17]. Financial Futures - The new nominee for the Fed Chairman's monetary policy of "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" has led to global de - leveraging. The A - share market is in an adjustment period, and the US stock market is accelerating de - leveraging. Before the Spring Festival, it's necessary to prevent the impact of the US stock market on A - shares, and it's recommended to close long positions, reduce equity assets, or hedge risks [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market mostly expects the steel market to remain stable after the holiday. The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Market Conditions - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed up, and closed down at night [1] Important Information - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.15 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 million tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month [1] - In late January 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons (8.8%) from the previous ten - day period; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the same ten - day period of last month; a decrease of 0.64 million tons (4.2%) compared with the same ten - day period of last year; an increase of 2.51 million tons (20.6%) compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [1] - In January, 1329 projects started nationwide, with a total investment of about 733.1 billion yuan [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,700 tons (0.4%); the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 592,400 tons (4.6%); the weekly consumption of five major products was 7.6066 million tons, a decrease of 5.1%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 16.6% month - on - month, and the consumption of plates increased by 0.1% month - on - month [1] Market Logic - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market for steel after the holiday is mostly expected to be stable. The disk trend depends on sentiment and funds [1] Trading Strategy - The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend. Maintaining the previous view, 3050 for rebar is still a strong support. It is recommended to carefully layout short - term long positions between 3050 - 3100 and set stop - losses [1]

格林大华期货副总经理、首席专家王骏在接受记者采访时也表示，三个核心因素驱动期货市场有效客户 数量增长。一是商品价格波动加剧，风险管理刚需凸显。地缘冲突加剧、供应链重构等多重因素交织， 实体企业面临前所未有的经营不确定性，通过期货市场进行套期保值成为稳定经营的必然选择。二是政 策持续引领，服务体系升级。期货和衍生品法落地施行，为产业客户参与期货市场提供了明确的法律保 障；期货交易所与期货公司联合开展产业培育计划，不断提升实体企业运用期货和衍生品能力。三是工 具供给丰富，满足多样化避险需求。期货市场品种与工具持续扩容，为产业链各环节精准管理风险提供 了更多选择。 据了解，2025年，期货市场活跃度显著提升，参与者结构趋于多元化。恒泰期货首席经济学家魏刚告诉 记者，2025年A股市场呈现"慢牛"格局，中国权益资产吸引力显著增强，特殊法人客户通过股指期货进 行风险对冲的需求大增。此外，黄金、白银等贵金属以及铜、铝、碳酸锂等工业金属表现亮眼，由于这 些品种与传统资产的相关性较低，成为机构投资者大类资产配置的重要选择。宏观对冲基金、CTA基金 良好的表现，也吸引了市场更多的关注。 中国期货市场监控中心近日发布数据显示，截 ...

【导读】金价、银价再度拉升，现货白银涨超12% 中国基金报记者 晨曦 刚刚，贵金属再度暴涨！ 2月3日晚间，现货黄金价格一路飙升，盘中涨超6%，最高价突破4950美元/盎司。 | 〈 | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4944.760 | 昨结 | | | 开盘 4669.080 | | | +285.482 +6.13% | 总量(kg) | 0.00 | | 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 | 4951.110 持 | 0 | | 2 | 0 | | 最低价 | 4666.083 增 仓 | 0 | | 内 | 0 | | સ્ત્રે | 五日 日K 周K | | | 月K 重念 | | | 營加 | | | | 均价: -- 盘口 | | | 4951.110 | | | | 6.26% 卖1 4945.640 | 0 | | | | | | 买1 4944.360 | 0 | | | | | | 21:47 4945.738 | 0 | | | | | | 21:4 ...

联系方式：010-56711796 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周五螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、交通运输部：2025 年预计完成交通固定资产投资超 3.6 万亿元。 2、据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2026 年 2 月空冰洗排产合计总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 2 震荡 | 量共计 2379 万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降 22.1%。 3、Mysteel 调研 95 家独立电弧炉钢厂春节停产情况，多集中在 2 月份停产，其中 月 1 日至 2 月 8 日停产钢厂最多，为 44 家，占 47.83%，接近一半水平。剩余 9 家钢厂将于 2 月 8 日之后陆续停产，最晚停产的钢厂将于 2 月 15 日停产。 4、湖北建筑钢材钢厂冬储调研显示，锁 ...