Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it enters a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise was due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. However, this week, due to the marginal weakening of overall fundamentals of butadiene and synthetic rubber and the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened, leading to a correction. But due to the strong expectations of butadiene still bringing some speculation, it enters a volatile pattern in the short term [4][5] - **Butadiene**: In the short term, the relatively low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, and the trading situation improves. Overall, butadiene rebounds in the short term, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - **Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber this cycle is 30,600 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 7.89%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.26%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber plants [4] - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,300 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to move up slightly. The valuation logic has switched from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 17, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [4] 3.1.2 Demand - **Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly. Currently, the shipment rhythm of each enterprise is slow, the finished product inventory continues to rise, and under the pressure of production and sales, enterprises continue to control production flexibly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will continue to operate weakly next cycle [4] - **Substitute Demand**: Currently, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitute demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - **Production**: This cycle (from December 12 to December 18, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 112,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 112,600 tons, a slight increase compared with this cycle [7] - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] 3.2.2 Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain at a high level, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant overhauls in December, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with limited incremental demand [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene, with little change [9] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (from December 11 to December 17, 2025), the domestic butadiene inventory has fluctuated slightly, and the total sample inventory has increased by 0.49% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory has increased by 0.73% compared with last week, and the sample port inventory has increased by 0.28% compared with last week [9]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "New Quality Zhejiang Merchants" (新质浙商) was introduced at the Zhejiang Provincial Economic Work Conference, highlighting a shift in the characteristics of Zhejiang entrepreneurs towards knowledge-based, innovative, and technology-oriented business practices [3][11][22] Group 1: Characteristics of New Quality Zhejiang Merchants - Innovation is emphasized as a crucial mission, encompassing not only technological innovation but also management and business model innovation, marking a transition from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth [4][5] - The new generation of Zhejiang merchants is encouraged to establish world-class enterprises, combining technological prowess, cultural depth, and international standards to enhance competitiveness on a global scale [8] - There is a notable shift from traditional entrepreneurial models to those that integrate scientific and entrepreneurial skills, with examples of entrepreneurs who are also researchers, reflecting a new archetype for Zhejiang entrepreneurs [9] Group 2: Economic Context and Trends - The emergence of "New Quality Zhejiang Merchants" aligns with the broader trend of Zhejiang's economic transformation from traditional industrialization to modern service-oriented and innovative digital economies [3][12] - The Zhejiang region has seen significant success in the private sector, with over 600,000 Zhejiang merchants operating domestically and more than 200,000 globally, showcasing the extensive reach and influence of Zhejiang's entrepreneurial spirit [12] - The recent achievements of Zhejiang in the national rankings of private enterprises indicate a robust ecosystem that supports innovation and the development of new industries [13][14] Group 3: Strategies for Cultivating New Quality Zhejiang Merchants - A strong innovation ecosystem is deemed essential for fostering new quality merchants, with initiatives aimed at enhancing the business environment and supporting long-term investments in technology and innovation [18][19] - The cultivation of new quality merchants is recognized as a gradual process requiring sustained effort and patience from both entrepreneurs and policymakers [19][20] - The emphasis on intergenerational knowledge transfer among Zhejiang merchants is crucial for maintaining the momentum of innovation and ensuring the legacy of entrepreneurial spirit [20][22]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the petrochemical sector, with the overall performance of the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.57% this week [9]. Core Insights - Oil prices have remained volatile, influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the fluctuating situation in Venezuela, which has led to a widening discount on Venezuelan oil [14]. - The average operating rate of domestic refineries is stable at 75.11%, while the average refining profit for major refineries is reported at 613.88 CNY/ton, showing a decrease from the previous period [3]. - The polyester sector is experiencing weak demand as the year-end approaches, with expectations of reduced operating rates for weaving machines [3]. - The ethylene market remains stable, with domestic prices holding steady, while propylene prices have seen a slight decline due to ample supply [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The petrochemical sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with various indices showing mixed performance, such as the polyester index increasing by 4.65% [9][10]. Oil and Gas Sector - As of December 18, WTI crude oil is priced at 56.15 USD, down by 1.45 USD, while Brent crude is at 61.43 USD, down by 0.95 USD. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.274 million barrels [14]. - The U.S. active oil rig count increased by 1 to 414 rigs, indicating a slight uptick in exploration activity [14]. Refining Sector - The average refining profit for major refineries is reported at 613.88 CNY/ton, a decrease of 31.59 CNY/ton from the previous period [3]. - The average operating rate for major refineries is stable at 75.11% [3]. Polyester Sector - The average profit for polyester products shows a decline, with POY150D at 38.35 CNY/ton, down by 71.09 CNY/ton, and FDY150D at -166.66 CNY/ton, down by 81.13 CNY/ton [3]. - PTA processing fees have slightly decreased to 156.51 CNY/ton, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability within the sector [3]. Olefins Sector - Ethylene prices remain stable at 6172 CNY/ton, while propylene prices in Shandong have decreased to 5955 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.22% decline [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the peak of short - term arrivals in China has passed, the inventory accumulation rate has slowed but the absolute inventory level is still high. The price difference between the US and South Korea has been repaired to a relatively high level, but the overseas gasoline cracking spread has been continuously weakening, reducing the support of overseas oil blending for pure benzene. Domestic production has decreased due to low profits. In the downstream, attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of styrene, while non - styrene production remains weak, with CPL production at a low level this year and phenol and aniline production further declining [3] - For styrene, the decline rate of port inventory slowed down during the week, and the port basis continued to decline after reaching the peak. On one hand, it is related to the trading of styrene resumption, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Satellite Petrochemical. On the other hand, downstream pick - up has decreased. Downstream production has decreased again during the off - season, with EPS and PS production declining and ABS production fluctuating at a low level. There is still inventory pressure on EPS and ABS finished products [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene include the relationship between the pure benzene main contract basis and the futures price, the main contract basis, the spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [8][11] - Figures related to styrene include the relationship between the styrene main contract basis and the main contract, the EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [16][17] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Price Differences - Figures related to production costs and spreads include naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan [21] - Figures related to production profits include the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, the production profit of pure benzene imports, and the production profit of styrene imports [25][32] - Figures related to price differences between regions include the price differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf, FOB South Korea, CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam; and the price differences between styrene FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][26][37] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory and Production Rates - For pure benzene, figures show the inventory in East China ports and the production rate [38] - For styrene, figures show the inventory in East China ports, commercial inventory in East China, factory inventory, and the production rate [41][43] IV. Styrene Downstream Production Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [51][53][56] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Production Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the production rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][66][72]

证券日报网讯12月18日，卫星化学（002648）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司POE产品正在加 快推进，各个牌号的样品都在测试，具体进展请关注公司官方信息或披露公告。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical (002648) emphasizes its decision-making is centered around maximizing company interests, allowing for flexible adjustments in the ratio of self-use and external sales of ethylene oxide based on market conditions [1] Group 1 - The company is responsive to market conditions, indicating a strategic approach to managing its ethylene oxide production and sales [1]

Group 1 - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with technology stocks under pressure while high-dividend sectors like oil, coal, and banking saw gains, supporting the resilience of the indices through a dividend cash flow strategy [1][10] - The 300 Cash Flow Index rose by 0.16% at the close, maintaining above the 5-day moving average [1][10] - Shaanxi Coal Industry rose by 3.74% following the release of a new guideline on clean and efficient coal utilization by multiple government departments, indicating a strategic investment opportunity in high-quality coal companies [1][10][14] Group 2 - "Two barrels of oil," namely China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, increased by 2.1% and 1.13% respectively, with other companies like Focus Media, COSCO Shipping, and China Railway High-speed also seeing gains of over 1% [3][14] - The 300 Cash Flow ETF (562080), the largest in terms of scale and liquidity, also saw a slight increase of 0.17%, indicating a trend of capital flowing into high cash flow assets as year-end approaches [16][18] - The 300 Cash Flow Index underwent a quarterly rebalancing on December 15, enhancing its focus on high cash flow, high dividend, and low valuation characteristics, with a more balanced market capitalization distribution and a defensive industry structure [18][20] Group 3 - The market is experiencing a clear shift in style, with funds moving away from high-valuation growth stocks towards stable assets, reflecting a preference for companies with stable cash flows and strong dividend capabilities [10][22] - The 300 Cash Flow ETF is positioned as a tool for investors to access high cash flow quality companies within the CSI 300, which are expected to perform well across economic cycles [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the broad application prospects of POE (Polyolefin Elastomer) in various sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, polymer modification, and daily consumer products, with a significant reliance on imports in China [1] - The company is addressing the challenge of domestic substitution by independently developing α-olefin raw materials, catalysts, and polymerization processes [1] - The company aims to provide comprehensive solutions centered around customer needs [1]

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 成本：12 月 17 日布油主力收盘 55.1 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 58.9 美元/桶（-1.7 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5285 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.7 万吨（-1.4 万吨），纯苯港口库存 26.0 万吨 （+3.6 万吨）。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.3%（-0.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 53.8%（- 2.6%），ABS 产能利用率 70.5%（+2.2%），PS 产能利用率 58.3%（- 0.7%）。 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 18 日 星期四 纯苯苯乙烯高库存淡季承压震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 17 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.37%，报 6404 元/吨；纯 苯主力合约收跌 0.96%，报 5388 元/吨。 （2）观点 纯苯：短期来看，国内纯苯到港高峰阶段性结束，港口库存增速明显放 缓，但库存 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 18% 24% 30% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3,870.28 | 1.19 | | 深证成指 | 13,224.51 | 2.40 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 4,579.88 | 1.83 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 4,441.29 | 1.74 | | 中证 500 | 7,137.83 | 1.95 | | 中证 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 2000 | ...