Core Insights - The total industrial feed production in China is projected to reach 34,225.3 million tons by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 8.6% [1] - The increase in domestic livestock and poultry production capacity is expected to drive a more than 8% year-on-year increase in compound feed demand, providing strong support for corn prices [1] - Due to reduced profits and potential losses in livestock farming, it is anticipated that the production capacity of pigs and the inventory of laying hens may decline in 2026, leading to total feed demand in 2026 being lower than in 2025 but higher than in 2024, maintaining a relatively high level [1] - The usage of corn in feed is expected to slightly decrease year-on-year, which may weaken its supporting role for corn prices [1]

Group 1: Consumer Building Materials Industry - The consumer building materials industry is expected to experience a mild price recovery, with potential marginal improvement in the gross margins of leading companies [1] - Recent price increases have been announced by leading companies in segments such as waterproofing, gypsum boards, and municipal channels, driven by supply optimization and rising prices of upstream raw materials like PVC and emulsions [1] - Companies to watch include Oriental Yuhong (002271), Sankeshu (603737), Beixin Building Materials (000786), China Liansu (02128), and Weixing New Materials (002372) [1] Group 2: Glass Industry - The glass industry is under profit pressure, with expectations for accelerated cold repair processes [2] - As of January 29, the average price of float glass was 1,145 RMB per ton, with negative gross margins for various production inputs, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [2] - Companies to focus on include Xinyi Glass (00868) and Qibin Group (601636) [2] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is experiencing weak profits during the off-season, with ongoing internal competition [2] - Current gross margins for cement are at historical lows, with limited room for further decline [2] - The industry is expected to see marginal improvements in capacity utilization due to the continuation of anti-involution policies, with companies to watch including Conch Cement (600585) and Shangfeng Cement (000672) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall price of eggs in Hubei province increased in January due to rising demand, but a decline is expected in February as demand weakens and inventory builds up during the Spring Festival [2][10]. Price Trends - In January, the average price of eggs in Hubei was 3.36 yuan per jin, with a month-on-month increase of 16.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.63% [11]. - The highest price recorded was 3.82 yuan per jin on January 29, while the lowest was 2.86 yuan per jin at the beginning of the month, resulting in a price range of 0.96 yuan per jin [11]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for eggs increased as food companies prepared for the Spring Festival, leading to higher procurement volumes [4][13]. - The average daily sales volume of eggs in major sales areas was 1,035.46 tons in January, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.73% [4][13]. - Weekly average shipments in Hubei were 361 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9.06% [4][13]. Supply Conditions - The number of new laying hens decreased in January due to low profitability, resulting in a limited decline in the stock of laying hens, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.11% [6][15]. - Some farmers held back on selling older hens due to rising egg prices, which affected the outflow of older hens [6][15]. Future Outlook - Demand is expected to weaken in February due to the Spring Festival holiday, leading to increased inventory levels and a potential decline in egg prices [7][16]. - The average price of eggs may drop to between 2.50 and 2.60 yuan per jin in February as supply pressures increase and demand weakens [7][16].

Market Overview - The digital media sector experienced a decline of 3.85% on February 4, with ZhiDeMai leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] Individual Stock Performance - *ST Fanli (600228) closed at 6.04, up 5.04% with a trading volume of 161,100 shares and a transaction value of 95.06 million [1] - Sanliu Wu Wang (300295) closed at 11.78, up 2.52% with a trading volume of 96,200 shares and a transaction value of 112 million [1] - Other notable declines include ZhiDeMai (300785) down 11.55% to 67.65, and XinHua Net (603888) down 6.29% to 24.29 [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The digital media sector saw a net outflow of 1.039 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 919 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that major stocks like *ST Fanli and Shengyi Bao experienced mixed capital movements, with significant outflows from institutional investors [3] Detailed Stock Capital Flow - *ST Fanli had a net inflow of 15.74 million from major investors, but a net outflow of 9.61 million from speculative investors [3] - Shengyi Bao saw a net inflow of 3.15 million from major investors, but also faced outflows from both speculative and retail investors [3] - The largest net outflow was observed in Mango Super Media (300413) with 40.88 million from major investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 10.68 million [3]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者何一华 李未来 北京报道 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 本次涨价政策落实之后，用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯测算，油箱容量在50升的小型私家车加满一箱油 将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口也就是 2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。 与此同时，物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启 前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更 ...

机构观点 2月3日，上期所石油沥青厂库期货仓单26490吨，环比上个交易日持平；石油沥青仓库期货仓单13580吨，环比上个交易日持平。 新湖期货：春节临近，市场供需呈南北分化。南方区域部分项目施工进入尾声阶段，终端少量释放，市场零星成交；北方市场上下游参与意愿均 不足，买卖氛围清淡，贸易商及下游企业逐步进入年度收尾阶段，整体交投活跃度持续走低。短期盘面重点关注原油价格变动。 上周沥青开工率环比回落1.3个百分点至25.5%，较去年同期低了2.6个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。 国信期货：据卓创资讯（301299），供应方面，中国沥青日度开工负荷率为28.95%，延续偏低位区间运行，支撑较为稳固。需求方面，冬季沥青 刚性需求整体呈现偏弱特征。中东等地缘局势的不确定性从成本端对沥青价格产生影响。操作上短期建议以震荡思路为主。 2月4日，沥青期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报3370.00元/吨，震荡上行1.97%。 截止到2026年1月26日，国内沥青104家社会库库存共计120.5万吨，较1月22日增加2.6%，同比增加21.0%。 【消息面汇总】 ...

广发证券认为，近期，动力煤日耗维持中高位，1月下旬至2月上旬高位有望继续消化，而临近春节供应 总体收窄，预计煤价有望延续整体稳定。焦炭首轮提涨顺利落地，下游采购情绪整体向好，预计焦炭价 格有望稳中有升。该行认为，进入26年，预计供应端增速较前期大幅下降，同时考虑到25年需求受到制 约26年也有较大改善空间，预计煤价中枢有望稳步回升。 消息面上，据证券时报报道，近日，焦炭年内首轮调涨落地。据卓创资讯（301299）数据，唐山市场主 流钢厂对湿熄焦炭价格上调50元/吨、干熄焦上调55元/吨，2026年1月30日零时起执行。邢台、天津地 区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭上调50元/吨、干熄焦炭上调55元/吨，2026年1月30日零点执行。石家庄地区个 别钢厂对湿熄焦炭上调50元/吨、干熄焦炭上调55元/吨，2026年1月30日零点执行。 煤炭股早盘走高，截至发稿，兖矿能源（600188）(01171)涨6.67%，报11.98港元；兖煤澳大利亚 (03668)涨5.84%，报33.34港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨4.19%，报11.43港元；力量发展(01277) 涨4%，报1.82港元；中国神华（60108 ...

本次上调落实后，消费者用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯（301299）研报显示，油箱容量在50升的小型私 家车加满一箱油将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次 调价窗口2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。 今年以来，国内油价已经历两轮调价窗口。本轮调价周期内，国际原油价格持续上涨，成品油对应调整 幅度扩大。价格落地后，今年调价格局将变为"两涨一搁浅"。根据"十个工作日"原则，下一轮成品油零 售调价窗口将在2月24日24时开启。 商报讯(记者朱光函)昨天下午，记者从浙江省发改委官网了解到，根据国家发展改革委官网新闻发布中 心公布的《2026年2月3日国内成品油价格按机制调整》，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，浙江省自2026 年2月3日24时起，汽、柴油价格(标准品)每吨分别提高205元和195元，折合成升价，每升92号汽油、95 号汽油和0号柴油的升幅分别在0.16元、0.17元、0.17元。调价落地后，92号汽油、95号汽油和0号柴油 的每升价格分别为6.91元、7.35元和6.56元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have experienced consecutive increases in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton respectively, leading to higher consumer fuel costs [1][2]. Group 1: Price Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that from February 3, 2026, gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter respectively [1]. - Consumers filling a 50-liter tank will incur an additional cost of approximately 8 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. affecting production, with Brent crude oil prices initially exceeding $70 per barrel before dropping to around $66 [2]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, while the International Energy Agency has increased its oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that after the recent price adjustments, the price change rate may turn negative, with significant variability in future crude oil prices [3]. - Increased gasoline demand is expected due to the Spring Festival travel season, while diesel demand remains subdued due to reduced construction activities [3]. - Domestic supply of refined oil is expected to be relatively ample, with increased operational capacity in refineries, leading to potential downward pressure on gasoline and diesel prices in the short term [3].

2月3日24时，国内成品油零售价格迎来"二连涨"，本轮是今年第三次调价，也是第二次上调。 近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对 比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别上 涨205元和195元。 折合成升价，每升92号汽油、95号汽油和0号柴油的升幅分别在0.16元、0.17元、0.17元。本次调价过 后，2026年成品油调价将呈现"两涨零跌一搁浅"的格局，今年国内汽、柴油价格每吨累计上涨290元和 280元。 本次上调落实后，消费者用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯分析师曹莹莹指出，油箱容量在50升的小型私家 车加满一箱油将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调 价窗口2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。物流行业，以月跑1万公里，百公里油耗在38升 的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 计价周期内国内成品油价格上涨 本轮计价周期内，国内汽油柴油价格均有所上涨，但受需求差异影响，汽油价格涨幅大于柴油。 1月份成品油市 ...