2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 3 | | 铜：外强内弱，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：底部横盘 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：外盘休市，警惕回调 | 14 | | 钯：投资情绪转向，料下行幅度较大 | 14 | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 | 16 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注复产进展与情绪降温 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注工厂减产情况 | 20 | | 多晶硅：增加交割厂库，关注情绪面 | 20 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：震荡反复 | 27 | | 焦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment: - **Strongly Bullish (Trend Intensity: +2)**: None - **Bullish (Trend Intensity: +1)**: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Bean Meal [49][185] - **Neutral (Trend Intensity: 0)**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Platinum, Palladium, MEG, Logs, PX, PTA, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Eggs, Hogs, Peanuts [16][19][81][185] - **Bearish (Trend Intensity: -1)**: Carbonate Lithium, Platinum, Palladium [42][52] - **Strongly Bearish (Trend Intensity: -2)**: None 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Macroeconomic Policy The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 2025 meeting decided to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and strengthening the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [7]. 2.2 Commodity Market - **Silver**: Although there is a short - term adjustment demand at high levels, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to the unsolvable global inventory contradiction. There is a possibility of intensified contradictions until 2026 [8]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental situation is weak, but news and capital disturbances are intensifying. There is a risk of a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. There are also structural opportunities, such as internal - external positive spreads and nickel - iron and futures spreads [10]. - **MEG**: Affected by the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant next month, the price increased. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations will limit the price increase [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Focus - **Central Bank Policy**: The Q4 2025 meeting of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee decided to continue the moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [7]. - **Recommended by the Director**: Silver is highly recommended, with recent price fluctuations driven by macro - liquidity and the performance of platinum and palladium. Nickel has a weak fundamental situation but potential for a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. MEG rose due to the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant [8][10][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining [16]. - **Silver**: High - level adjustment is expected, with a long - term upward trend supported by inventory contradictions [8]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is strong overseas but weak domestically, limiting price increases [23]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation [26]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price [29]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted [32]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, while alumina is at the bottom and moving sideways [36]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - **Nickel**: There is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [44]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is affected by Indonesian nickel ore news [45]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is strong, and the price trend is upward [81]. - **MEG**: The valuation has bottomed out and rebounded, but there is medium - term pressure [82]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating strongly [83]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is entering an oscillating phase with weak current situation and strong expectations [86]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable [89]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is a short - term rebound, but the height is limited [177]. - **Soybean Oil**: The impact of US soybeans is limited, and range - bound operation is recommended [177]. - **Bean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose, and Dalian bean meal may rebound and oscillate [183]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [186]. - **Sugar**: There is an expectation of a weak basis [190]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [195]. - **Eggs**: They are in an oscillating adjustment phase [202]. - **Hogs**: Speculative demand has been fulfilled [204]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills [209].

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价震荡收十字星，总持仓下降 9850 手，盘面 01-02 价差缩窄至 190，现货铜跌 205 至 93470，现货贴水扩大 20 至 215，现货进口亏损扩大至 1600 以上，进口窗 口关闭，LME0-3back 扩大至 6.58，同时沪伦比值继续下跌，外盘价格表现持续强 于内盘。日内有 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of copper is rising due to the continuous decline of the US dollar [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 93,930, with a daily decline of 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 94,890, with a night - session increase of 1.02%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,055, with an increase of 1.21% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 260,740, a decrease of 144,031 from the previous day, and the open interest was 635,670, a decrease of 9,850. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,306, an increase of 10,441, and the open interest was 342,000, a decrease of 2,837 [1] - **Inventory and Cancellation Rate**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 49,543, an increase of 1,001. The LME Copper inventory was 158,575, an increase of 825, and the cancellation rate was 30.82%, a decrease of 1.98% [1] - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads such as LME copper premium/discount, bonded warehouse warrant premium, etc., showed different changes compared with the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: In 2026, efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, control increments, reduce inventories, and optimize supplies according to local conditions. The US Q3 GDP increased by 4.3% year - on - year, the core PCE increased by 2.9%, the October durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, and the consumer confidence in December declined for five consecutive months. The labor market is recovering [1] - **Industry**: Glencore expanded its business in Peru by acquiring the Quechua copper project. The Peruvian Congress extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners to the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper output from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year, reaching 431,998 tons [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the copper market trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2] - Silver: Reached a new high [2] - Copper: The price is rising due to the continuous decline of the US dollar [2] - Zinc: Trading in a sideways range [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2] - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2] - Aluminum: Trading in a narrow range [2] - Alumina: Rebounded from the bottom [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: The overseas market has broken through the previous high, with strong upward momentum [2] - Palladium: Continues to rise following platinum [2] - Nickel: Concerns about Indonesian policies have led to an emotional rally in the market [2] - Stainless steel: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and are affected by news of Indonesian nickel mines [2] Summary by Related Categories Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,014.24, up 1.34% [4]. The trading volume of Comex Gold 2602 was 241,461, an increase of 42,965 from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 93,711 kg, an increase of 1,995 kg from the previous day [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, growing at 4.3%, the fastest in two years [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0 [7] Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 16,441, up 1.50% [4]. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2602 was 127,435, an increase of 30,063 from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 899,663 kg, a decrease of 1,805 kg from the previous day [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 0 [7] Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Copper contract was 93,930, down 0.41%, and the night - session price was 94,890, up 1.02% [8]. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 260,740, a decrease of 144,031 from the previous day [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 49,543 tons, an increase of 1,001 tons from the previous day [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1 [10] Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 23,090 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [11]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 133,845 lots, a decrease of 579 lots from the previous day [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 41,343 tons, a decrease of 1,247 tons from the previous day [11]. - **News**: The US Q3 GDP grew at 4.3% [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [13] Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 16,995 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [14]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 44,610 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots from the previous day [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 12,509 tons, a decrease of 1,329 tons from the previous day [14]. - **News**: The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, growing at 4.3% [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 344,750, up 1.27% [17]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 228,643, a decrease of 11,222 from the previous day [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,340 tons, an increase of 655 tons from the previous day [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, growing at 4.3% [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract was 22,195, a decrease of 25 from the previous day [21]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Alumina contract was 168,096, a decrease of 1,987 from the previous day [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was - 2.80 million tons [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US October durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; Alumina trend intensity is 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 619.95, up 9.06% [24]. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 155,413, an increase of 101,107 from the previous day [24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum was 624,733 ounces (previous day) [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US economy expanded at a 4.3% rate in Q3 [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 1; Palladium trend intensity is 1 [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 123,440 [32]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 386,986, an increase of 190,610 from the previous day [32]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production target in 2026 [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is + 1; Stainless steel trend intensity is + 1 [36]

分析师表示，国际铜业研究小组（ICSG）预测，2026年将出现15万吨的供应缺口，如果智利的项目停 滞不前，这一缺口还会扩大。 "从长远来看，建设新矿并非易事。全球经济想要投资的几乎所有领域都离不开铜，包括能源转型和人 工智能领域，"Benchmark Minerals公司铜分析师Albert Mackenzie 表示。 Guzmán称，智利2026年项目面临的主要风险在于社区关系，而非市场动态或2026年3月上任的新政府。 12月22日（周一），随着全球供应紧张的担忧导致铜价上涨，预计2026年，13个价值148亿美元的智利 铜矿项目将达到关键里程碑。 据官方数据显示，智利有望从中受益，其中7个国内项目计划于明年投产，新增近50万吨年产能，投资 额达71亿美元。 这些项目包括英美资源集团/嘉能可的Collahuasi基础设施和产能升级项目（即C20 项目）、智利国家铜 业公司（Codelco）的Rajo Inca结构项目、Capstone Copper公司的Mantos Blancos项目以及备受争议的 Andes Iron的Dominga项目。 另有六个开发项目计划开工建设，与铜在能源和技术领域的战略作用 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices continue to rise amid geopolitical tensions, particularly due to the interruption of Venezuelan oil exports, which is a significant factor supporting market sentiment [4][10][30]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On Tuesday, oil prices experienced a steady increase, with Brent crude rising approximately $0.5, indicating strong geopolitical performance [4]. - WTI crude oil futures closed at $58.38 per barrel, up $0.37 or 0.64%, while Brent crude futures closed at $61.87 per barrel, up $0.29 or 0.47% [26]. - The market is currently facing a resistance zone, and technical analysis suggests a need for price correction, indicating that further price increases may be limited [5][25]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. continues to exert pressure on Venezuela, with President Trump stating that actions such as seizing oil tankers aim to force President Maduro out of power [4][30]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved, with direct attacks on energy facilities continuing, which adds to the geopolitical uncertainty affecting oil prices [4][10]. - Recent U.S. actions against Venezuelan oil exports have led to a significant slowdown in loading activities, further impacting the supply chain [37]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The API reported an increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories, indicating a potential oversupply situation, especially as December is traditionally a period of high demand due to holidays [5][25]. - The floating crude oil inventory in Asian waters has reached a three-year high, but it is expected to decline as sanctioned oil exports slow down and procurement increases [28]. - The market is closely monitoring the supply dynamics, particularly the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices and inventory levels [29][38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers insights and analyses on various commodities in the futures market, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro and industry news for each commodity, along with corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend intensity of 0 [6]. - **Platinum**: Domestic and international markets resonate, and the bullish sentiment remains unabated, with a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. - **Palladium**: The climbing pace has slowed, with an upward trend in oscillations, and a trend intensity of 1 [26][28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rose as the US dollar declined, with a trend intensity of 1 [10][12]. - **Zinc**: Narrow - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][15]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [16]. - **Tin**: Supply has encountered new disruptions, with a trend intensity of 1 [18][22]. - **Aluminum**: Range - bound oscillations, with a trend intensity of 1; Alumina had a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 0; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and concerns about Indonesian policies have increased, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the news of Indonesian nickel mines has caused disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [30][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: Not specifically mentioned in a comprehensive way, but some related commodities like fuel oil and asphalt are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rose, and short - term volatility increased, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Mainly followed the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [139]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price had a narrow - range adjustment, remaining stable despite the oil price trend, with a trend intensity of 1 [80][89]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Do not chase the high price, and it is in a high - level oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **MEG**: The trend is relatively weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [63][70]. - **LLDPE**: Some full - density products have been redirected, and the valuation support is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [94][96]. - **PP**: The PDH profit has been compressed again, and the trend is weakly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [97][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: A short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, with a trend intensity of 0 [100][102]. - **Methanol**: Oscillations are supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [112][115]. - **Urea**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [116][119]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has changed little, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - **LPG**: The external cost is relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [127][132]. - **Propylene**: There are expectations of supply - demand tightening, and the short - term trend is supported, with a trend intensity of 0 [128][132]. - **PVC**: A short - term rebound, but the upward space may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [136][137]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production cut is gradually being realized, and there is a short - term rebound, with a trend intensity of 1 [168][174]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans rebounded, and it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations, with a trend intensity of 0 [168][174]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans rose overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate, with a trend intensity of +1 [175][177]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [175][177]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [178][181]. - **Sugar**: There is an expectation of a weak basis, with a trend intensity of 0 [182][185]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking, with a trend intensity of 0 [187][191]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting, with a trend intensity of 0 [193]. - **Hogs**: Hold the reverse spread, with a trend intensity of - 1 [195][200]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [202][204]. Others - **Logs**: Low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [59][62]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center has moved up, with a trend intensity of 0 [77][79]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [104][106]. - **Glass**: The raw sheet price is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [109][110]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Iron**: The sector and fundamentals resonate, and the trend is strongly oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The long and short sentiments are intertwined, and the trend is widely oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][54]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [55][58]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Near - term contracts should focus on the opening guidance, while far - term contracts should focus on the progress of the Gaza peace talks, with a trend intensity of 0 [141][155]. - **Short Fibre**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with compressed processing fees, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term follow - up of raw materials, with a trend intensity of 0 [157][158]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0 [160]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [165][166].

Group 1 - China Nonferrous Mining announced the acquisition of 64,700 shares of SM Minerals for $89 million, increasing its stake to 70% [1] - The core project of SM Minerals is the Bonkar project in Kazakhstan's Aktobe province, covering an area of 34.3 square kilometers, with a resource of 384 million tons of ore and 1.58 million tons of copper [3] - The project is expected to have a processing capacity of 14 million tons per year, with an estimated annual production of 45,000 tons of copper concentrate starting in 2029 [3] Group 2 - Kazakhstan is rich in mineral resources, holding approximately 25% of the world's uranium, 16% of chromium, and 28.5% of tungsten, making it a strategic location for international mining capital [5] - Glencore and Rusal are key international players in Kazakhstan's mining sector, with significant production capacities in zinc and aluminum [5] - The geopolitical landscape surrounding Kazakhstan is becoming increasingly complex, with major powers vying for control over strategic resources such as gold, copper, rare earths, lithium, and cobalt [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4] - Silver: Reaching new highs [2][4] - Copper: With the dollar falling, the price is rising [2][8] - Zinc: Trading in a narrow range [2][11] - Lead: Reduced inventory is supporting the price [2][14] - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][16] - Aluminum: Trading within a range; Alumina: Slightly rebounding; Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Platinum: Domestic and international markets are in resonance, and bullish sentiment remains strong [2][24] - Palladium: The upward pace has slowed, and it is moving up in a volatile manner [2][24] - Nickel: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, but Indonesian policies are causing concerns [2][28] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news about Indonesian nickel mines is causing fluctuations [2][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Fundamental Data - **Price**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 979.90 with a -0.06% daily change; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4368.70 with a 0.11% daily change. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 15376 with a -0.93% daily change; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 67.395 with a 2.97% daily change [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Gold 2602 had a trading volume of 328,878 (up 87,762 from the previous day) and an open interest of 189,662 (down 7,090 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver 2602 had a trading volume of 1,904,227 (up 332,489 from the previous day) and an open interest of 337,467 (down 25,935 from the previous day) [4] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory was 91,716 kg (unchanged from the previous day); Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 36,070,160 (up 78,815 from the previous day). Shanghai Silver inventory was 899,636 kg (down 12,528 from the previous day); Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before) was 453,176,217 (up 225,434 from the previous day) [4] News - The competition for the Fed Chairmanship is intensifying. Waller is said to have performed "outstandingly" in the interview and has the support of corporate executives. Wall Street is lobbying for Warsh, and Trump may shift his focus to the job market [4] - Fed's "third - in - command" Williams said there is no urgency to cut interest rates further, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted [4] Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 94,320 with a 1.22% daily change; the LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 11,911 with a 0.34% daily change [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Copper index had a trading volume of 404,771 (up 90,659 from the previous day) and an open interest of 645,520 (up 13,578 from the previous day). The LME Copper 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 15,865 (down 3,536 from the previous day) and an open interest of 345,000 (up 2,699 from the previous day) [8] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 48,542 (up 2,803 from the previous day); LME Copper inventory was 157,750 (down 2,650 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 32.81% (down 2.39% from the previous day) [8] News - Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru, expanding its business in the country [8] - The Peruvian Congress approved a one - year extension of temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [8] - Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons [8] Zinc Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 23,115 with a 0.17% daily change; the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3078 with a 0.65% daily change [11] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a trading volume of 134,424 (up 46,063 from the previous day) and an open interest of 90,612 (up 4,247 from the previous day). The LME Zinc had a trading volume of 8,494 (down 14,475 from the previous day) and an open interest of 229,088 (up 1,627 from the previous day) [11] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 42,590 tons (down 2,588 from the previous day); LME Zinc inventory was 99,250 tons (down 650 from the previous day) [11] News - The Japanese Finance Minister warned the foreign exchange market, suggesting that the intervention threshold has been approved by the US. The Japanese government's aggressive fiscal stimulus has pushed up Japanese government bond yields to a 27 - year high [11] - 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed does not need to cut interest rates at least until next spring, and the November CPI inflation data may be distorted [11] Lead Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16,920 with a 0.24% daily change; the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1984.5 with a 1.25% daily change [14] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Lead main contract had a trading volume of 49,244 (down 7,217 from the previous day) and an open interest of 59,586 (down 2,591 from the previous day). The LME Lead had a trading volume of 5,862 (down 6,084 from the previous day) and an open interest of 177,303 (up 635 from the previous day) [14] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory was 13,838 tons (down 349 from the previous day); LME Lead inventory was 255,950 tons (down 2,675 from the previous day) [14] News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [14] - Trump's "appointed" Fed理事Milan said the Fed will face a recession risk if it does not cut interest rates next year. A 2026 Fed voter is hawkish, saying there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months, and the November CPI is underestimated [14] Tin Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 343,040 with a 2.59% daily change; the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,975 with a 0.13% daily change [16] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The Shanghai Tin main contract had a trading volume of 240,305 (down 3,224 from the previous day) and an open interest of 33,801 (down 107 from the previous day). The LME Tin 3M electronic disk had a trading volume of 180 (down 9 from the previous day) and an open interest of 13,988 (up 53 from the previous day) [16] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,844 (up 242 from the previous day); LME Tin inventory was 4,645 (up 220 from the previous day), and the canceled warrant ratio was 6.57% (down 0.38% from the previous day) [16] News - Similar to gold and silver news, including Fed Chairmanship competition, Fed's Williams' remarks, Japanese central bank's interest rate hike, etc. [16] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 22,220. The LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2956. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract had a trading volume of 253,929 and an open interest of 314,299. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 2.70 million tons [21] - **Alumina**: The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2498. The main contract had a trading volume of 170,083 and an open interest of 151,207 [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,290. The main contract had a trading volume of 4,594 and an open interest of 17,184 [21] News - Goldman Sachs believes that the global market in 2026 will be a "Song of Ice and Fire." The asset valuation is "overheated," and AI valuation has led the fundamentals significantly [23] - China's energy storage batteries are booming, with expected global shipments to jump 75% this year [23] Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 568.45 with a 6.54% increase; palladium futures 2606 closed at 508.45 with a 5.88% increase [24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai Platinum had a trading volume of 54,306 (down 99,605 from the previous day) and an open interest of 41,087 (up 3,000 from the previous day). Shanghai Palladium had a trading volume of 28,327 (down 80,134 from the previous day) and an open interest of 17,699 (up 2,478 from the previous day) [24] News - Fed理事Milan said the necessity of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has weakened. Trump may appoint a new Fed Chair in the first week of January next year [27] - The negotiation between Ukraine and the US ended, and Zelensky said the key work of the "peace plan" draft was completed [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 121,260. The 1 imported nickel price was 118,825 [28] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,850 [28] News - The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [28] - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [29] - The Indonesian government has taken various measures regarding the nickel mining and smelting industry, such as sanctions on mining companies, changes in RKAB approval procedures, and suspension of new smelting license issuance [29][30][31]