Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the chemical sector, with a focus on specific stocks that are expected to perform better in the current market conditions [3][4]. Core Insights - The overall allocation of public funds in the chemical sector has decreased, reaching a low of 1.81% in Q2 2025, down 0.19 percentage points from the previous quarter [10][17]. - The top ten chemical stocks held by public funds have seen their market value share decline by over 50% in the past year, suggesting that market sentiment may have bottomed out [17][18]. - The report highlights a shift in focus towards refrigerants, civil explosives, and certain new materials, while the share of export-oriented stocks has decreased [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1.1 National and Regional Allocation of Chemical Stocks - In Q2 2025, the allocation of chemical stocks by public funds has continued to decline across all regions, with East China at 2.01%, South China at 2.13%, and North China at 1.24% [10][22]. 1.2 Changes in Fund Holdings of Chemical Stocks - The number of funds holding major export-oriented stocks has significantly decreased due to external trade tensions, with notable declines in holdings for Wanhu Chemical and Sailun Tire [22][30]. - The total market value of the top 30 chemical stocks held by funds was 47.835 billion yuan, down 9.4% from the previous quarter, indicating a slight decrease in concentration [6][33]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks such as Wanhu Chemical, coal chemical companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy, and specific agricultural chemicals [4][18]. - For fluorochemical refrigerants, the long-term upward trend remains intact, with recommendations for stocks like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyue Group [4][18]. - In the semiconductor materials sector, stocks with low valuations and stable earnings such as Yake Technology and Dinglong Co. are highlighted as potential investments [4][18].

金融界7月28日消息，上证指数高开震荡，上证一带一路主题指数 (沪新丝路，000160)下跌0.78%，报 1876.36点，成交额608.92亿元。 从上证一带一路主题指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 从上证一带一路主题指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比61.26%、原材料占比23.60%、能源占比 10.42%、通信服务占比3.47%、公用事业占比1.27%。 资料显示，指数样本每季度调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年3月、6月、9月和12月的第二个星 期五的下一交易日。每次调整的样本比例一般不超过20%。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间 与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对 指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的 处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 来源：金融界 数据统计显示，上证一带一路主题指数近一个月上涨7.85%，近三个月上涨9.64%，年至今上涨1.68%。 据了解，上证一带一路主题指数选取基础建设、交通运输、高端装备、电力通信、资源开发等五大产业 中最具主题代表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" expectations are strengthening, suggesting attention to five major investment themes: 1. Polyester filament: The industry is expected to see a recovery in prosperity due to a high-quality development initiative and price increases driven by raw material costs and downstream recovery [5]. 2. MDI: The MDI market is characterized by high technical and capital barriers, with a concentrated competitive landscape. The report anticipates a shift in supply focus towards China due to aging overseas facilities [5]. 3. Industrial silicon and organic silicon: The report notes a potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics for industrial silicon, while organic silicon may see coordinated production cuts as a new norm [5]. 4. Polyester bottle chips: A significant portion of the industry is expected to undergo production cuts, which may lead to a recovery in industry profits [5]. 5. Sucralose: The report highlights a collaborative pricing strategy among leading companies, which is expected to support price increases in the coming periods [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 4%, ranking 8th among 31 industry sectors [6][18]. Key News and Company Announcements - The report discusses the launch of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, which is expected to significantly boost demand for chemical materials [6][31]. Product Price Changes - The report lists the top price increases for chemical products, including lithium carbonate and DMC, while also noting significant declines in products like hydrochloric acid [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, as well as industries facing supply constraints that may see price elasticity [7][15][16].

证券研究报告：基础化工|行业周报 发布时间：2025-07-28 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 3782.32 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3782.32 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2687.54 | 行业相对指数表现 -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 29% 33% 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张泽亮 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100003 Email:zhangzeliang@cnpsec.com 分析师:许灿杰 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040002 Email:xucanjie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关注雅下水电站相关和涨价线》 - 2025.07.21 基础化工行业报告 （2025.07.21-2025.07.25） 关注化工龙头和农药反内卷 ⚫ 投资要点 防止内卷式竞争关注化工龙头标的，硅料、农 ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance among bank stocks, while oil, coal, and electric power stocks declined [1][6] Banking Sector - Everbright Bank had a market capitalization of 242.84 billion with a trading volume of 0.38 billion, closing at 4.11, up by 0.03 (0.74%) [3] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance had a market capitalization of 382.10 billion, with a trading volume of 1.46 billion, closing at 59.62, up by 1.12 (2.99%) [3] - China Pacific Insurance had a market capitalization of 371.44 billion, with a trading volume of 1.02 billion, closing at 38.61, up by 1.54 (2.65%) [3] - Ping An Insurance had a market capitalization of 1,085.69 billion, with a trading volume of 5.02 billion, closing at 8.64, up by 0.17 (2.01%) [3] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai had a market capitalization of 1,806.43 billion, with a trading volume of 3.41 billion, closing at 122.78, down by 16.99 (-1.17%) [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu had a market capitalization of 221.85 billion, with a trading volume of 1.14 billion, closing at 1438.01, down by 3.73 (-2.01%) [3] - Wuliangye had a market capitalization of 476.58 billion, with a trading volume of 1.31 billion, closing at 181.85, down by 0.76 (-0.62%) [3] Technology Sector - Haiguang Information had a market capitalization of 246.59 billion, with a trading volume of 1.20 billion, closing at 341.73, down by 0.23 (-0.07%) [3] - Northern Huachuang had a market capitalization of 282.22 billion, with a trading volume of 4.45 billion, closing at 674.60, up by 1.30 (0.19%) [3] - Cambricon Technologies had a market capitalization of 32.38 billion, with a trading volume of 1.79 billion, closing at 139.31, down by 2.18 (-1.54%) [3] Energy Sector - Sinopec had a market capitalization of 269.58 billion, with a trading volume of 5.34 billion, closing at 5.88, down by 0.11 (-1.27%) [3] - PetroChina had a market capitalization of 1,566.66 billion, with a trading volume of 8.05 billion, closing at 8.56, down by 0.06 (-1.08%) [3] Automotive Sector - BYD had a market capitalization of 1,846.26 billion, with a trading volume of 5.87 billion, closing at 37.78, down by 0.47 (-2.26%) [3] Securities Sector - CITIC Securities had a market capitalization of 363.53 billion, with a trading volume of 32.66 billion, closing at 29.86, up by 0.41 (2.03%) [4] Consumer Electronics - Luxshare Precision had a market capitalization of 272.89 billion, with a trading volume of 23.13 billion, closing at 28.83, up by 0.17 (0.59%) [4] Home Appliances - Gree Electric had a market capitalization of 228.16 billion, with a trading volume of 10.44 billion, closing at 25.72, down by 0.09 (-0.19%) [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - Heng Rui Medicine had a market capitalization of 404.93 billion, with a trading volume of 4.53 billion, closing at 48.52, up by 4.61 (8.17%) [4]

在国企改革向纵深推进的关键阶段，以及新质生产力加快发展迅速跃升的时代背景下，7月28日，山东 能源集团新材料公司(以下简称新材料公司)迎来了成立三周年纪念日。 3年来，新材料公司锚定"打造一流新材料产业集团"的发展定位，在延链补链强链和项目并购重组的双 轮驱动下，高端化工、纤维复合、钙基材料、光电新材料四大产业集群聚链成势。截至目前，新材料公 司资产总额达439亿元，比成立之初增长了227%。 战略突围强主业 新材料公司在新材料产业发展的竞速跑道上，处处标注着国有企业守正创新、担当突破的醒目注脚。 高端化工新材料的基础更牢、底气更足。新材料公司聚焦增量跨越担当，成功收购齐翔腾达，成为化工 及新材料主业协同发展、深度融合的典型案例。齐翔腾达依托碳三碳四产业优势，锚定一体化、链式 化、绿色化沿链聚合的发展方向，在建设高端化工一流企业的征程上掀开了新的一页。新材料公司甲乙 酮、顺酐产销量稳居世界第一，长碳链尼龙突破"卡脖子"技术，尼龙弹性体产能全球第三，阻燃剂品种 国内最全。 纤维复合新材料规模更大、效率更高。新材料公司坚持建设"黑灯工厂"示范，新建改造智能化生产线6 条，综合智能化水平达到80%以上，产能规模同比 ...

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号:F3051631 投资咨询号:Z0015756 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 联 系 人： 陈沐之 执业编号:F03142903 2025-07-28 01 核心观点总结 塑料：维持供强需弱局面，预计短期回调 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：7月25日塑料主力合约收盘价7216元/吨，较上周-75元/吨。LDPE均价为9383.33元/吨，环比-1.16%， HDPE均价为7987.50元/吨，环比-0.99%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7408.24元/吨，环比-0.67%。 LLDPE华南基差收于42.82元/吨，环比-77.92%，6-9月差32元/吨（+23）。基差走缩，月差走扩。 2 基本面变化：成本利润端成本方面，本周WTI原油报收65.07美元/桶，较上周-0.96美元/桶，布伦特原油报收76.60 美元/桶，较上周-1.63美元/桶。无烟煤长江港口报价为1000元/吨 ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 24 July 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Global Chemicals China's "anti-involution" targets shutdown of 20 year "old capacity"; prefer ABS/Rubber with tailwinds for PE/ PP/PVC/TDI depending on ...

"反内卷"势在必行，化工行业新一轮供给侧改革呼之欲出 20250727 摘要 化工行业面临供给侧改革的必然性，传统市场出清机制失效，大型龙头 企业凭借前期利润积累和政府支持，具备较强抗风险能力，导致价格下 跌未能引发破产潮。 当前化工板块配置普遍偏低，投资者应关注即将出台的新政策，调整投 资策略，关注具备技术优势、成本控制能力强且具有长期发展潜力的龙 头企业。 2025 年上半年，化工行业供需失衡，产品价格跌至历史低位，但中游 制造业企业未大规模破产，表明传统需求拉动模式受限，依赖供给侧改 革恢复盈利水平。 历史周期表明，有效的政策干预和结构调整可实现产业复苏，如 2015 年供给侧改革对钢铁、煤炭等行业的成功经验，为当前化工行业提供了 参考。 当前 PPI 已连续负增长 33 个月，预示经济环境严峻，需结构性调整和政 策支持以实现复苏，短期关注盈利修复，长期期待更大规模的结构性改 革或政策刺激。 Q&A 近年来化工行业的供给侧改革和反内卷趋势是如何发展的？ 政府正采取措施缓解光伏、钢铁、汽车等领域的内卷问题，稳增长与调 结构优供给政策及碳排放双控政策旨在淘汰落后产能，提高能耗标准。 增配化工板块，优先购买龙 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Express Delivery Industry**: The industry is responding to internal competition through price increases and regulatory intervention. Prices in Yiwu have gradually increased from 1.0 to 1.1 RMB per package after a drop to 1.0 RMB earlier in the year. Shentong's acquisition of Danying Express aims to enhance market share and reduce costs, focusing on single-package profit elasticity [1][4][5]. - **Aviation Industry**: Airlines are addressing price wars under the guidance of the Civil Aviation Administration by implementing minimum price restrictions and improving OTA disturbances. The summer travel season has seen poor passenger flow, prompting airlines to form alliances to stabilize prices and capacity. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines and major state-owned airlines [1][6]. - **Bulk Commodities**: Jiayou International has benefited from a significant rise in coking coal futures prices, increasing from 720 to over 1,200 RMB. The company is also seeing growth in its African projects, suggesting a positive outlook for its stock [1][7]. - **Chemical Industry**: The CCPI price index has slightly increased, with certain products experiencing price rises due to accidents and policy expectations. Investment opportunities are identified in the chemical sector due to industry recovery, liquidity easing, and policy catalysts. The negative PPI growth is expected to end, with a focus on bottom-tier chemical blue-chip stocks and elastic varieties [1][8][9]. - **Pesticide and Polyester Industries**: The rise in glyphosate prices and increased demand for wheat herbicides are noted. The polyester filament industry is performing well, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating a potential for future growth in companies like Yangnong Chemical and Tongkun Co. [1][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Express Delivery**: The price adjustments and regulatory measures are stabilizing the market, with Shentong's acquisition expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [1][4][5]. - **Aviation Response**: The implementation of minimum pricing and improved booking systems aims to mitigate the impact of OTA price wars, with a focus on maintaining operational stability during low demand periods [1][6]. - **Bulk Commodities Performance**: Jiayou International's stock is recommended due to its strong performance linked to rising coal prices and successful project expansions [1][7]. - **Chemical Sector Recovery**: The chemical industry is poised for recovery with expected PPI improvements and favorable policy changes, making it an attractive investment area [1][9]. - **Pesticide and Polyester Demand**: The increasing prices and demand in the pesticide sector, along with the strong performance in polyester production, highlight potential investment opportunities in these industries [1][12]. Additional Insights - **Coal Industry**: The coal sector has seen significant policy support, leading to an 8% increase in stock prices. The focus on supply-side reforms aims to balance the market through capacity control and monitoring [2][18][19]. - **Challenges and Opportunities in Coal**: The coal industry faces challenges in policy implementation but has opportunities for quicker supply-demand balance due to ongoing reforms and seasonal factors [21][23]. - **Future Outlook for Coal Market**: The long-term outlook for the coal market remains optimistic, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics driven by regulatory measures and seasonal demand [23]. - **Investment Selection**: Recommendations include focusing on bottom-tier chemical blue-chip stocks and high-elasticity varieties in the chemical sector, as well as monitoring developments in the pesticide and polyester industries for potential growth [10][11].