Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to slightly slow down to 3.1% in 2026. Overseas macro themes will return to global central bank monetary policies, the US dollar exchange - rate center, and AI - driven global industrial transformation. The US may see further fermentation of the Fed's easing expectations, while the eurozone will enter a cycle of low - inflation and weak recovery. China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth under the dual - loose tone of monetary and fiscal policies. Global electrification transformation and the AI technological revolution will drive copper consumption growth [4][115]. - In terms of supply, the growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2026 may be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of overseas interrupted mines and limited release of new production capacity. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline by 2.5% year - on - year in 2026 due to low processing fees and reduced imports caused by a shortage of overseas non - US supplies [4][115]. - In terms of demand, new energy vehicles are expected to maintain strong growth, grid investment will maintain a steady growth rate, the wind and photovoltaic industries will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and AI computing power demand will drive the data - center construction into a new cycle. It is estimated that the domestic refined copper consumption growth rate will maintain at 2.1% in 2026, and there will be a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic refined copper market [4][116]. - In 2026, copper prices are expected to continue rising under the background of a warming global macro - environment and a tight supply - demand fundamental situation. The main operating range of Shanghai copper is expected to be between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and that of London copper is expected to be between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [4][116]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review - The copper price in 2025 showed a trend of first hitting the bottom and then rebounding. In the first quarter, it rose from 73,000 to a maximum of 83,000 due to factors such as the easing of trade concerns and AI - driven optimistic expectations. In April, it dropped significantly due to US tariff concerns. In the second quarter, it rebounded due to China's export resilience and domestic macro - economic policies. In the third quarter, it rose again due to intensified overseas mine - end disturbances. In the fourth quarter, it reached a new high under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. By December 5, the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 25.8% year - on - year, and the London copper rose by 32.8% year - on - year [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased in 2025. The social inventory of electrolytic copper in the second half of the year remained at a low level below 200,000 tons. The overall supply - demand structure was in a tight - balance state, and it is expected that the tight - balance will continue in 2026 with a downward trend in absolute inventory [15][16]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US and Eurozone Economic Situations**: The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The US economy is driven by traditional manufacturing and AI, but trade protectionism may challenge the global supply - chain elasticity. The eurozone economy shows a weak - recovery trend, with the performance of Germany and France diverging [18][19][20]. - **Monetary Policies**: The Fed may have about two interest - rate cuts in 2026, and inflation is expected to rise moderately in the first half of the year and then gradually return to the 2% target. The ECB is expected to maintain a stable monetary - policy stance, and the risk of inflation rising due to tariff policies is low [21][22][24]. - **China's Economic Situation**: China's economy maintained stable growth in 2025. In 2026, China will implement expansionary fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on high - quality development, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will promote new economic growth points [25][26][27]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis - **Supply Disturbances and TC Forecast**: In 2025, global mainstream copper mines faced frequent supply disturbances, and the actual growth rate of copper concentrate supply was low. The annual long - term contract TC is expected to hit a new low in 2026 [28][32]. - **Growth Rate Forecast**: Without considering interference factors, the global mainstream mines will contribute about 980,000 tons of new copper - concentrate output in 2025, but the actual growth rate is only 1%. In 2026, the new output will be 533,000 tons, and the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5% [34]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis - **Domestic Production and Reduction Plan**: China's electrolytic copper production increased in 2025. However, the state will strictly control the expansion of electrolytic - copper smelting capacity, and CSPT members may jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. It is expected that the domestic refined - copper output will decrease in 2026 [44][45][46]. - **Overseas Capacity Release**: Overseas refined - copper capacity release in 2026 is limited. Some overseas smelters have stopped or reduced production, and the net new capacity is only about 600,000 tons, accounting for 2.1% of the global total in 2025 [47][48]. - **Import Volume Forecast**: China's refined - copper imports showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing in 2025. In 2026, imports are expected to decline to 3.1 - 3.2 million tons due to high premiums of overseas US - dollar supplies [51][52]. - **Scrap - Copper Import and Recycling**: In 2025, China's scrap - copper imports shifted from the US to Southeast Asia. In the future, China will strengthen the internal recycling of scrap - copper resources, and the refined - scrap price difference is expected to narrow slightly in 2026 [65][66]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 26, 2025, the global visible inventory increased significantly. Overseas inventory had a structural mismatch, and non - US inventory may remain at a low level. Domestic inventory is expected to decline slightly in 2025 [71]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis - **Grid Investment**: China's grid investment in 2025 was lower than the target. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the total grid investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan, and the investment growth rate in 2026 is expected to be 3 - 3.5% [75]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market in 2025 was in a downturn. In 2026, the industry will focus on high - quality development, but the copper consumption in the real estate sector is expected to decline by more than 10% [76][77][78]. - **Air - Conditioning Industry**: The air - conditioning industry in 2025 faced challenges such as the uncertainty of national - subsidy policy continuation and weak external demand. The copper consumption growth rate in 2026 is expected to drop to 4 - 5% [79][80][81]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, new energy vehicles maintained strong growth. In 2026, although the purchase - subsidy policy will be adjusted, the sales are still expected to reach 1.85 million vehicles, and the copper - consumption growth rate will drop to about 15% [82][83][84]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: The global photovoltaic - installation capacity is expected to decline in 2026. China's photovoltaic - installation capacity will remain between 235 - 270GW. The wind - power growth rate may gradually get out of the trough, but the copper - consumption growth rate in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is expected to decline [86][88]. - **AI Data Centers**: The demand for AI computing power is driving the data - center construction into a new cycle. The global data - center scale is expected to reach 95GW in 2026, bringing about 1 million tons of copper - consumption increment [91][92]. - **Overall Consumption Forecast**: In 2026, new trends will drive domestic refined - copper consumption growth, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2.1% [95]. 6. 2026 Market Outlook - **Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors**: The global economic growth rate will slow down slightly in 2026. The supply of global copper concentrate will be tight, and domestic refined - copper supply will decline. The demand for refined copper will maintain growth, resulting in a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic market [115][116]. - **Price Forecast**: Copper prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, with the main operating range of Shanghai copper between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton and that of London copper between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [116].

1. Report Summary - The report provides a morning strategy briefing for metal options on December 11, 2025, covering various metal options including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals [1][2]. 2. Core Views - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, a neutral volatility selling strategy is recommended [2]. - For black metals with large - amplitude fluctuations, a short volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals experiencing a rebound, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2601) is 91,770, with a price increase of 290 and a trading volume of 14.61 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The report calculates the volume PCR and open - interest PCR for different metal options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For instance, the pressure level of copper is 94,000 and the support level is 84,000 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report provides information on the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and historical implied volatility difference for each metal option [6]. 3.3 Option Strategies by Metal 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short volatility option selling combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [8]. - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a selling combination strategy of slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Zinc**: Build a selling combination strategy of neutral call and put options and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Nickel**: Construct a selling combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [11]. - **Tin**: Build a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a selling combination strategy of neutral call and put options and a spot long - hedging strategy [12]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Build a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a slightly bullish short volatility option selling combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [13]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a selling combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - covered - call strategy [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Build a selling combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [14]. - **Ferro - alloys**: For manganese silicon, construct a short volatility strategy; for industrial silicon, build a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short volatility selling combination strategy of call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy; for glass, construct a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short volatility selling combination strategy of call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15][16].

Group 1 - In October, Codelco's copper production decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, reaching 111,000 tons [1] - Escondida copper mine, owned by BHP, saw an increase in production of 11.7% year-on-year, totaling 120,600 tons, making it the largest copper mine globally [1] - Collahuasi, operated by Glencore and Anglo American, experienced a significant production drop of 29.3% year-on-year, with output at 35,000 tons [1] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [1] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" in both Chinese and English [1]

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - Copper prices have shown strong performance this year, with significant fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies [1] - The first quarter saw an initial price increase, followed by a more pronounced rise in mid-April, culminating in accelerated growth by year-end [1] - Despite macroeconomic disturbances, the market's perception of copper's financial attributes has been evident, particularly in response to U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Copper concentrate supply is expected to remain tight in 2025, with negative processing fees reported since late January, reaching -40 USD/ton by April [2] - Operational instability in overseas mines, such as the earthquake in Chile affecting Codelco's El Teniente mine, has contributed to reduced production forecasts from several mining companies [2] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies in China may further restrict copper concentrate supply, especially if smelter by-product prices weaken [2] Group 3: End-User Demand - Domestic cable manufacturers have shown varied production patterns, with limited seasonal demand for copper, primarily maintaining a just-in-time procurement approach [3] - The air conditioning sector has benefited from a trade-in policy, leading to increased production in the first quarter compared to previous years [3] - The automotive industry, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, is expected to continue its rapid growth, providing strong support for copper demand [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with stable growth anticipated in copper demand for electricity, although a decline is expected in the air conditioning sector [4] - The automotive industry, especially in the context of electric vehicles, is projected to remain a significant driver of copper demand [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to experience a volatile trend, with initial increases followed by potential declines [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time this year, now setting the federal funds rate at a range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 3 in favor of the rate cut, indicating increasing internal divisions regarding future policy direction [1] - The Fed announced a liquidity management measure, starting December 12, to purchase $40 billion in Treasury securities monthly to rebuild bank reserves that have significantly declined during the balance sheet reduction [1] Group 2 - The international silver price has reached a new historical high, with spot silver rising by 1.88% to $61.81 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increasing by 2.24% to $62.20 per ounce [2] - Major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 497.46 points (1.05%), the S&P 500 up by 46.17 points (0.67%), and the Nasdaq Composite up by 77.67 points (0.33%) [2] - Notable increases were observed in large tech stocks, with Qualcomm rising over 3%, and several storage concept stocks reaching new highs, including Western Digital up over 7% [2] Group 3 - Glencore has not commented on reports suggesting it may become the first company to export cobalt under the new quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] - The new quota system allows Glencore to ship its first batch of cobalt after paying a 10% royalty fee, while another company, China Molybdenum, is also preparing for exports [3] Group 4 - Samsung SDI has signed a contract for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery orders worth over 2 trillion KRW (approximately $13.6 billion) with an unnamed U.S. energy infrastructure company [4] - The contract involves the delivery of LFP battery cells for a battery energy storage system solution, marking a significant shift from ternary batteries to LFP batteries for Korean battery manufacturers [4] Group 5 - The Democratic Republic of Congo has implemented stricter cobalt export regulations, introducing mandatory quota checks and prepayment of royalties, which may complicate the newly launched export quota system [5] - This policy is expected to impact the global cobalt supply rhythm in the short term [5] Group 6 - Quark AI glasses are currently out of stock on major e-commerce platforms, with a shipping delay extended to 45 days due to limited production capacity [6] - The company is working on increasing production to meet the high demand, which has already exceeded its future capacity for the next 45 days [6] Group 7 - Hainan Airport has completed the overseas investment procedures for acquiring a controlling stake in Meilan Airport, with a transaction value of 2.339 billion CNY [7] - The company plans to proceed with a comprehensive buyout offer for all issued domestic shares and H-shares following the completion of the share transfer [7] Group 8 - Lens Technology plans to acquire 100% of PMG International Co., Ltd., a liquid cooling and server cabinet company, to expand into AI computing infrastructure [8] - The specific transaction amount and terms will be determined after due diligence and negotiations [8] Group 9 - Sunny Optical Technology reported a total shipment of 12.634 million vehicle lenses in November, a year-on-year increase of 69.4% [9] - The company also reported a shipment of approximately 119 million mobile phone lenses, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [9] Group 10 - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for the marketing application of its drug SPH3127 [11] - The approval allows the company to proceed with the commercialization of this product in China [11] Group 11 - Gilead Sciences has had its new drug application for ASC40, a first-in-class FASN inhibitor for treating moderate to severe acne, accepted by the National Medical Products Administration [12] - This marks a significant step in the development of innovative treatments in the dermatology sector [12] Group 12 - China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation is benefiting from a significant increase in domestic heavy truck sales, with November sales reaching approximately 100,000 units, a year-on-year growth of about 46% [13] - The company is on track to meet its annual sales target of 300,000 units and plans to maintain a cautious capital expenditure strategy from 2025 to 2027 [14]

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the effects of rectifying "involutionary" competition are becoming evident, with price declines in industries such as coal mining, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing narrowing year-on-year [1] - The price decline for new energy vehicle manufacturing also narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a gradual improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the new energy industry chain [1] - This stabilization in prices is expected to enhance corporate profitability, with leading companies benefiting first due to their cost and technological advantages [1] Group 2 - Glencore has not commented on reports suggesting it may become the first cobalt exporter under the new quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could strengthen supply constraints and improve the long-term supply-demand dynamics of the cobalt industry [2] - If confirmed, this development may boost cobalt prices and market sentiment in the short term, with leading companies benefiting from resource and channel advantages [2] - The stabilization of cobalt prices in the medium to long term is anticipated to enhance the performance of mining companies, necessitating close monitoring of export dynamics and inventory changes [2] Group 3 - Yuntianhua announced plans to acquire 100% of Tianyao Chemical for 36.8858 million yuan, which will enhance its market position in the high-end phosphorus product sector [3] - The acquisition will allow Yuntianhua to create a complete industrial chain from yellow phosphorus to phosphorus-based flame retardants, significantly improving resource utilization efficiency and industry synergy [3] - This strategic move is expected to bolster the company's performance and solidify its leading position in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Swiss mining giant Glencore announced the restart of the Alumbrera copper mine project in Argentina, aiming to resume production by mid-2028 after a decade-long hiatus in large-scale copper mining in the country [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Alumbrera copper mine, located in Catamarca province, is expected to produce 75,000 tons of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold, and 1,000 tons of molybdenum upon completion [1] - The project had previously operated for 20 years until 2018, marking a significant return to copper mining in Argentina [1] Group 2: Current Mining Landscape - Currently, the only operational copper project in Argentina is the Martin Brown project in Jujuy province, which has a production capacity of only 1,500 tons per month [1] Group 3: Investment and Collaboration - Glencore's MARA and El Pachón copper projects have submitted applications to join the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), with a total investment amount of approximately $13.5 billion [1] - The restart of the Alumbrera project is intended to share infrastructure with the MARA project, enhancing collaborative production efficiency, with MARA expected to produce 200,000 tons of copper concentrate annually once operational [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights an impending global copper crisis triggered by the shutdown of key copper smelting facilities by Glencore, which could significantly impact future technological advancements and economic stability due to copper's essential role in various industries [4][5][34]. Supply Side - Glencore's decision to close its two major copper smelting plants in Canada is a critical signal of a broader supply crisis in the copper industry, marking the collapse of a 30-year supply-demand balance [10][11]. - The copper smelting industry is facing unprecedented pressure due to a severe shortage of copper concentrate, leading to negative processing fees (TC/RC), indicating that smelters are losing money just to keep operations running [12][34]. - Environmental regulations and the high costs of modernizing aging smelting facilities are further complicating the supply situation, making it economically unfeasible for companies to continue operations under current conditions [13][28]. Demand Side - The demand for copper is driven by three major engines: the transition to green energy, the AI revolution, and the global upgrade of electrical grids, all of which are creating a structural and irreversible increase in copper consumption [15][24]. - Electric vehicles (EVs) require significantly more copper than traditional vehicles, with each EV using 4 to 6 times more copper, contributing to the rising demand [16][20]. - AI data centers are emerging as new growth areas for copper consumption, necessitating extensive electrical infrastructure and cooling systems that rely heavily on copper [19][20]. Structural Challenges - The copper supply chain is constrained by geological limits, with declining ore grades in major producing countries like Chile, leading to increased extraction costs and environmental pressures [28][29]. - The long investment cycle in mining means that even with high copper prices, new production cannot be brought online quickly enough to meet demand, creating a significant supply gap [31]. - Geopolitical risks in major copper-producing countries are rising, with resource nationalism leading to stricter regulations and potential disruptions in supply [32][34]. Strategic Responses - To address the looming copper crisis, China must adopt a dual strategy of expanding overseas resource acquisition while simultaneously developing a domestic recycling system for copper [43][48]. - The focus on recycling and urban mining can help mitigate reliance on imported copper, as China has a substantial stock of waste copper that can be repurposed [48][49]. - Establishing a robust overseas presence in resource-rich but politically stable regions is essential for securing copper supplies and reducing vulnerability to geopolitical risks [44][46].

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has become the first company to export cobalt under the new quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, following the payment of a 10% royalty fee [1] Group 1 - Glencore has received approval to ship its first batch of trial cobalt shipments under the new quota system [1] - The report indicates that the Tenke Fungurume mine, owned by China Molybdenum, has also initiated export preparations [1] - Glencore declined to comment on the Reuters report regarding its cobalt exports [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market will experience wide - range fluctuations in 2026. The supply of lead concentrates will shift from shortage to tight balance, with global new capacity increasing from 110,000 tons in 2025 to 230,000 tons in 2026. The processing fees are expected to remain low with a narrowing decline. The price of waste batteries is likely to rise due to supply - demand mismatch [2][71]. - The growth of global refined lead supply will slow down in 2026. Domestic primary lead production will increase by 100,000 tons to 3.94 million tons, while secondary lead production may decrease by 0.5% year - on - year due to the implementation of the new national standard and constraints on raw materials and profits [2][71]. - Policy support for terminal consumption is expected to continue, with replacement demand and new - standard electric vehicle demand driving battery consumption. However, battery exports will face challenges from trade barriers and technological substitution, leading to a slight decline in consumption growth [2][71]. - Overall, macro - drivers are moderately positive, and cost support and rigid procurement will underpin lead prices. But increased supply and falling demand growth may lead to a wider supply - demand surplus, causing the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures to fluctuate widely between 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [2][72]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lead Market Review - In 2025, Shanghai lead futures showed wide - range fluctuations, mainly between 16,165 - 17,840 yuan/ton. By December 10, the main contract price closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 1.7% from the beginning of the year [7]. - London lead futures were slightly weaker than Shanghai lead. By December 10, the price closed at 1,988 US dollars/ton, up 2.8% from the beginning of the year [8]. 3.2 Lead Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Lead Ore Supply - In 2025, global new lead concentrate capacity was 110,000 tons, with overseas capacity increasing by about 60,000 tons and domestic by about 55,000 tons. In 2026, global new capacity is expected to increase to 230,000 tons, with overseas at 90,000 tons and domestic at 143,000 tons [12][13][14]. - In 2025, lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline, with domestic and imported fees dropping by 300 yuan/metal ton and 125 US dollars/dry ton respectively by December. In 2026, processing fees are expected to remain weak with a slowdown in the decline [21]. - In 2025, lead ore imports increased by 10% year - on - year to about 1.36 million tons. In 2026, the growth rate is expected to slow to about 5%. Silver concentrate imports are expected to grow steadily [22][23]. 3.2.2 Refined Lead Supply - In 2025, global refined lead production increased by 4.42% to 13.341 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to grow by 1% to 13.472 million tons [27][30]. - In 2025, domestic primary lead production increased by 6.4% to 3.84 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by 2.6% to 3.94 million tons [32]. - In 2025, domestic secondary lead production decreased by 0.5% to 3.176 million tons. In 2026, with the implementation of the new national standard, production is expected to decrease by another 0.5% to 3.16 million tons [37][40]. 3.2.3 Refined Lead Demand - In 2025, global refined lead consumption increased by 1.8% to 13.25 million tons, with a surplus of 91,000 tons. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow by 0.9% to 13.37 million tons, with a slightly wider surplus [49][50]. - In 2025, refined lead and lead products had a net import, while battery exports decreased significantly. In 2026, the export growth of refined lead and lead products is expected to slow, and net imports will continue. Battery exports will still face challenges but may decline at a slower pace [52][53]. - Policy support for terminal consumption will continue. In 2026, electric bicycle and automobile sectors will maintain demand for lead - acid batteries, and the energy storage sector will see stable growth, but lithium - ion battery substitution will pose long - term pressure [57][60][61]. 3.2.4 Inventory Performance - In 2025, LME lead inventory increased slightly and fluctuated at a high level, reaching 236,900 tons by December 9. Domestic inventory decreased significantly, dropping to 20,500 tons by December 8 [66]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook for the Future - In 2026, the lead market will be affected by cost and supply - demand factors, with the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuating widely between 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [72].