铜产业链周度报告 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-14 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction. The short - term is expected to maintain range consolidation. Unilateral strategies should focus on high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on the Shanghai - London ratio [3][65][66]. - The tight pattern of the zinc ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The inventory trends at home and abroad are diverging [2][62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In August 2025, the global zinc market supply surplus expanded to 47,900 tons. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc supply surplus was 154,000 tons. From July to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 2.1712 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.57%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.1482 million tons, basically the same as the cumulative output of last year [11]. - The statistical sample of this report shows that the zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2025 was 1.4424 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 4.254 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.31% [11]. 3.2 Glencore - In 2025, Glencore's zinc concentrate production guidance was adjusted to 94 - 980,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 244,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.94% and a year - on - year increase of 7.86%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.22% [19]. 3.3 Teck - In 2025, Teck's zinc concentrate production guidance was 525,000 - 575,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 150,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 456,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.81% [24]. 3.4 Boliden - In the third quarter of 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate output was 108,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 17.75%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 317,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.12% [27]. 3.5 Vedanta - In the third quarter of 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate output was 262,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.16% and a year - on - year increase of 8.26%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 785,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.65% [32]. 3.6 Nexa - In 2025, Nexa's zinc concentrate production guidance was 300,000 - 336,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 83,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.88% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 224,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [37]. 3.7 MMG - In 2025, MMG's zinc concentrate production guidance was 215,000 - 240,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 58,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.58% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 166,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [44]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - In 2025, Newmont's zinc concentrate production guidance was 236,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 59,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11.52% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 184,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.30% [47][48]. 3.9 BHP - In the 2025 fiscal year, BHP's zinc concentrate production guidance was 90,000 - 110,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 36,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.95% and a year - on - year increase of 85.77%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 91.03% [49]. 3.10 South32 - In the 2026 fiscal year, South32's zinc concentrate production guidance was 40,000 tons, a decrease compared with the 2025 fiscal year. In the third quarter of 2025, the zinc concentrate output was 8,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.40%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.74% [50][51]. 3.11 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production guidance was 174,700 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous period. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 45,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 46.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 130,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.55% [52]. 3.12 Industrials Pelones - In the third quarter of 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate output was 63,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 181,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.68% [54]. 3.13 Fresnillo plc - In 2025, Fresnillo plc's zinc concentrate production guidance was 93,000 - 103,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 24,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.41%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.61% [57]. 3.14 Market Outlook - The tight pattern of the ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The domestic and foreign inventory trends are diverging. Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction [62][63][65].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry (02788.HK) has launched a global IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise approximately HKD 5.495 billion, with a share price range of HKD 10.18 to HKD 10.99, and plans to list on November 24 [1] Group 1: IPO Details - The company plans to issue around 500 million shares, with 450 million shares allocated for international placement and 50 million shares for public offering in Hong Kong [1] - The net proceeds from the IPO will be allocated as follows: approximately 50% for expanding overseas production capacity, 40% for green energy projects, and 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [1] - The public offering period is from November 14 to November 19, with an entry fee of approximately HKD 5,550 for 500 shares [1] Group 2: Cornerstone Investors - A total of 17 cornerstone investors, including Hillhouse, China Hongqiao, and others, have committed to subscribe to the shares, with a total subscription amount of approximately USD 351 million based on the upper end of the price range [2] - The participation of cornerstone investors is expected to enhance market confidence in Innovation Industry's business and future development [2] - The company has selected cornerstone investors based on market conditions and its own value, focusing on long-term partners with industry backgrounds to create a mutually beneficial cooperation [2] Group 3: Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream segment of the aluminum industry chain, primarily covering alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [3] - The company operates in three stages of aluminum production: bauxite mining, alumina refining, and electrolytic aluminum smelting [3] - According to CRU, the refining and smelting stages have the highest value in the aluminum industry chain, and the company's electrolytic aluminum smelting plant in Inner Mongolia is recognized as the fourth largest in North China [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - Over the past three years, the company's revenue, gross profit, and gross profit margin have shown steady growth [4] - Revenue increased from RMB 13.49 billion in 2022 to RMB 15.16 billion in 2024, while net profit rose from RMB 0.913 billion to RMB 2.63 billion during the same period [4] - Gross profit grew from RMB 2.04 billion in 2022 to RMB 4.28 billion in 2024, with gross profit margin improving from 15.1% to 28.2% [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the TC of zinc ore continued to decline, strengthening the expectation of domestic smelter production cuts. The opening of the zinc ingot export window reduced the pressure of domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulation. The high spread between the domestic and overseas markets attracted attention, with domestic smelters and traders actively seeking exports. The LME zinc has limited room for further significant upside. - There is a need for profit - taking of cross - market long - spread funds, while the participation enthusiasm of cross - market short - spread funds is currently limited. It is a good opportunity to enter cross - market short - spread trades as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets has shown signs of convergence, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. The spread is expected to converge to the range of 1,000 - 1,500 yuan/ton. - The high - low rotation of funds has spread from the stock market to the futures market, and a rebound of oversold varieties can be expected. In Q4, Shanghai zinc is not recommended as a short - allocation. The rebound height is temporarily seen at the annual line of 23,200 yuan/ton. It is unlikely to rebound to the high - level range of 24,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year unless the domestic deflation expectation is broken and overseas consumption exceeds expectations. - The price range of Shanghai zinc in Q4 is expected to be 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and the price range of LME zinc is 2,900 - 3,100 US dollars/ton. [73][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Price History and Current Situation - Historically, factors such as the European debt crisis, US QE policies, mine shortages, and changes in TC have affected zinc prices. In 2025, the zinc market has complex supply - demand and price relationships. The LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, SMM zinc inventory is 159,600 tons, and the smelter raw material inventory is 26 days. The LME 0 - 3 month premium is 117.04 US dollars. [5][21] - In 2025, from January to July, China's zinc ingot production was 3.8425 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%. From January to September, the output was 5.0685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83%. However, some overseas refineries have reduced production due to factors such as low TC and profit problems. In H1 2025, the overall output of major overseas refineries decreased by 89,900 tons year - on - year, a decline of 4.34%. [28][29][39] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - side factors**: New domestic mines such as Huoshaoyun, Russia's OZ mine, and Congo's Kipushi lead - zinc mine have been put into production, effectively alleviating the raw material constraints on domestic refineries. However, overseas refineries' profit recovery will lead to competition for mines between overseas and domestic refineries. [30][41] - **Demand - side factors**: The real estate market has shown signs of weakness, with a decline in real estate investment and a mixed situation in housing sales. The photovoltaic industry has passed the high - growth stage, and the growth rate of new installed capacity has slowed down. However, the export of galvanized sheets has increased, with the cumulative export of 10 - tariff - number galvanized sheets from January to September 2025 reaching 10.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.61%. [62][64][58] - **Policy factors**: The import and export tariffs of zinc products have been adjusted. For example, the export tariff of 0 zinc is 20%, but the provisional tariff in 2025 is 0%. The export of zinc ingots is subject to a 13% VAT, and the export tax rebate has been cancelled since 2008. [34][35] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Cross - market arbitrage**: Cross - market short - spread is recommended as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets is converging, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. - **Unilateral trading**: For LME zinc, beware of sudden warehouse deliveries due to low inventory. The upside space above the 3,100 - dollar integer mark is limited, so short - allocation on rallies is recommended. For Shanghai zinc, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In Q4, short - allocation is not recommended. Look for short - allocation opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton or short - term long positions on pullbacks. - **Inter - period trading**: Due to the weak current situation and unclear prospects for expectation repair, the inter - period spread is difficult to widen, maintaining a normal positive market structure, and there are no inter - period arbitrage opportunities. [74][75]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in gold prices and positive market sentiment have led to an increase in mining stocks in London, with the FTSE 100 index approaching the significant 10,000-point mark for the first time [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have reached record highs due to investors seeking safe-haven assets, which has also boosted other metals and the mining sector [1] - Fresnillo, a gold and silver miner, saw its stock rise by 2.4% [1] - Endeavour Mining's stock increased by nearly 1.5% [1] - Hochschild Mining experienced a slight increase of 1.2% [1] - Rio Tinto's stock in London rose by 1.4% [1] - BHP's stock in the UK increased by over 1% [1] - Glencore and Anglo American both saw their stocks rise by over 0.5% [1] - Copper miner Antofagasta's stock rose by nearly 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Canada needs to rethink its strategy for developing critical minerals, particularly focusing on the Ring of Fire, which may not be the best investment compared to other existing mining regions in Canada. Group 1: Government Initiatives and Policies - Prime Minister Mark Carney has prioritized critical minerals alongside infrastructure development, aiming to double Canada's non-US exports over the next decade, unlocking $300 billion in new trade [5][15]. - The Ontario government is frustrated with the lengthy timelines for mining project approvals, leading to the introduction of Bill 5 to expedite mining projects and create Special Economic Zones [7][8]. - The Building Canada Act aims to streamline federal approval processes for major projects, including critical mineral developments [11]. Group 2: The Ring of Fire - The Ring of Fire has been highlighted as a potential area for critical mineral extraction, but it faces significant challenges, including lack of infrastructure and opposition from local First Nations [24][25]. - The estimated economic return from the Ring of Fire is $22 billion over 30 years, averaging $730 million per year, which is less than the current earnings from platinum group elements in Ontario [33][96]. - Critics argue that the Ring of Fire is overhyped and that other mining regions, such as the Sudbury Basin and Abitibi Greenstone Belt, offer better returns and should be prioritized for investment [17][30][96]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment Needs - Canada needs to build more mining infrastructure, including ports, power lines, and railways, to support the extraction and transportation of critical minerals [60][66][73]. - The Port of Churchill is identified as a key project for diversifying trade and enhancing Canada's economy, with a commitment of $180 million for improvements [63][64]. - The lack of power infrastructure in remote mining areas, such as the Ring of Fire, poses a significant barrier to development [66][70]. Group 4: Comparison with Other Mining Regions - The Sudbury Basin and Abitibi Greenstone Belt are highlighted as more productive mining regions compared to the Ring of Fire, with the Sudbury Basin generating $800 million annually from platinum group elements alone [30][96]. - The article emphasizes that Canada has several existing mining camps that could drive GDP and exports more effectively than the Ring of Fire [93][96]. Group 5: Future Directions - The article suggests that instead of focusing on the Ring of Fire, the Canadian government should identify and fund advanced mineral projects that are more likely to succeed [97][98]. - There is a call for the government to support junior mining companies, which are crucial for future mineral discoveries and developments [55][57]. - The need for a strategic approach to mining, including the establishment of smelters and refineries within Canada, is emphasized to avoid exporting raw materials for processing abroad [104][106].

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased due to optimism from the U.S. government ending its shutdown and expectations of tighter supply next year [1] - Codelco's copper production decreased by 7% in September, supporting copper prices [1] - Glencore and Anglo American's joint mining operations saw a 26% decline in production, while BHP's Escondida mine experienced a 17% increase [2] Group 2 - Anticipation of supply shortages is bolstering copper prices, with expected disruptions at several mines affecting copper concentrate output [3] - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with Shanghai aluminum up 0.07% to 21,665 yuan per ton and Shanghai lead down 0.29% to 17,440 yuan per ton [3] - LME three-month aluminum rose 0.17% to $2,874.50 per ton, while zinc and nickel prices declined [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current problems on the zinc supply side exceed those on the demand side. In November, domestic apparent demand declined compared to October, in line with seasonality, and cumulative consumption year-on-year remained stable. On the supply side, with high production from domestic smelters, there is a shortage of ore. Due to limited overseas ore increments next year and the winter storage and low internal - external price ratio, ore traders are holding back supplies and pushing up prices. Both internal and external processing fees have declined more than expected, forcing domestic smelters to cut production. November production is expected to be roughly flat month - on - month, but there may be a decline in December [3]. - The issue of short - squeeze with low LME inventories has not been completely resolved. This week, LME inventories remained the same as last week. With the export window on the futures market not open, domestic exports are limited [3]. - Given the expected production cuts by domestic smelters, the non - resumption of overseas smelters, and the non - accumulation of global inventories, institutions and foreign investors increased long positions and reduced short positions last week, leading to a relatively strong rebound in zinc prices [3]. - Macroscopically, overseas, on November 10, the US Senate obtained enough votes to end the government shutdown, and the government is expected to reopen within 1 - 2 weeks, injecting liquidity into the market and providing short - term support for non - ferrous metal prices. In China, the situation of weak reality and strong expectations continues. October PMI and import - export data were weak, but there were differences in performance among industries and enterprises of different scales [3]. - Looking at the subsequent fundamentals, the increase in Xinjiang, China, is the biggest variable. Even if there are problems with zinc ingot production, there is a possibility of selling ore externally. Additionally, the internal - external price difference continues to widen, and it is only a matter of time before zinc ingot exports balance the internal and external markets. Therefore, it is believed that zinc prices may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, but in the medium to long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is appropriate [3]. - In terms of structure, the low LME inventories are unlikely to end in the short term, and overseas smelters may not resume production until next year. The best time to enter an internal - external reverse arbitrage has not yet arrived [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Balance Sheet - Based on the latest resumption and new production arrangements of smelters, the monthly production from October to December has been slightly adjusted downward [4]. - Considering seasonal patterns in the first quarter of 2026, in terms of exports, it is expected to return to a net - import state as the export window closes. However, given the possible reduction of long - term zinc ingot import contracts next year, a low import volume is estimated [4]. - From the perspective of the domestic monthly balance, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of 2026 will continue to increase [4]. 3.2 Main News - Glencore's self - owned zinc production in the third quarter of 2025 was 244,200 tons, 8% higher than the same period in 2025. The total self - owned zinc production in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Glencore's self - owned zinc production guidance for 2025 is 950,000 - 975,000 tons [6]. - Penoles' zinc concentrate production in the third quarter of 2025 was 63,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. Its zinc production was 45,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9% [6]. - The Phase I mining project of Fankou Lead - Zinc Mine started with an investment of 830 million yuan. After reaching full production and stabilizing, it is expected to increase annual operating income by over 400 million yuan [6]. - On October 30, the LME announced plans to formulate permanent rules, including restricting members with large positions in near - term contracts and expanding the scope of position restrictions for more immediate delivery positions like "tom - next". The consultation will be open until November 21 [6]. 3.3 Zinc Concentrate Production - In September 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. The cumulative production from January to September was 2.727 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.96% [7]. - Since late September, the domestic zinc concentrate TC quotation has declined rapidly. This week, the average was 2,650 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/metal ton [7]. - This week, the import zinc concentrate processing fee index was 98.37 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17 US dollars/dry ton. Recently, import ore traders have significantly pressured prices, and some zinc - rich ore was traded at 80 - 90 US dollars/dry ton [7]. 3.4 Zinc Concentrate Import - According to customs data, in September 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative import volume from January to September was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.50% [9]. - The main import sources were Australia (25.2%), Peru (14%), Oman (11.1%), etc. Imports from Oman and Australia increased significantly, while those from Peru, Mexico, and Russia decreased to varying degrees [9]. - As of November 6, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 1,596 yuan/ton, narrowing by 127 yuan/ton compared to last week [10]. - As of November 7, the weekly inventory of seven major ports was 348,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,500 tons. Although the import window for zinc concentrate is closed, due to the high demand of domestic smelters, the quantity of imported ore arriving at ports has not decreased significantly, and port inventories have remained at a high level [12][13]. 3.5 Zinc Smelter Production - In October 2025, SMM refined zinc production increased by 17,100 tons month - on - month to 617,200 tons, 5,500 tons lower than expected [18]. - In November, some northern smelters had a faster decline in raw material inventory due to fierce competition for domestic ore and may cut production more than expected. However, with the continued launch of new production capacity and the resumption of smelters that underwent maintenance in October, overall refined zinc production in November is expected to be roughly flat month - on - month [18]. - Recently, smelter profits have significantly declined, but the sulfuric acid price has clearly rebounded since late October. With the support of sulfuric acid and by - product revenues, smelters still have a certain profit margin [18]. - In October, the raw material inventory days of domestic smelters decreased by 4 days to 22.1 days. With relatively low pressure on smelters to maintain production at the end of this year, if the TC continues to decline in December, the possibility of production cuts in December will increase [19]. 3.6 Refined Zinc Import and Export - In September 2025, China imported 22,700 tons of refined zinc and exported 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. The main import countries were Kazakhstan (78%) and Iran (8%), and the main export countries were Indonesia (55%) and Vietnam (20%) [23]. - As of last Friday, the Shanghai - London ratio slightly rebounded to 7.42222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Consumption and Regulation of New Energy", aiming to basically establish a new power system compatible with a high proportion of new energy by 2035 [7]. - In the short - term, the opposite trends of glass and soda ash may continue, but the space is limited. In the medium - term, their price difference will show a volatile market [10]. - The recent rise of lithium carbonate is driven by demand. The short - term trend is strong, but there is pressure in the long - term [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 New Energy Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration proposed to optimize the allocation and consumption of new energy, promote the development and consumption of offshore wind power, and strengthen grid operation technology [7]. 3.2 Glass and Soda Ash - The short - term opposite trends of glass and soda ash are due to factors such as lower - than - expected glass production cuts, forced liquidation of certain positions, and favorable monthly spread structures for soda ash. In the medium - term, the price difference will be volatile [10]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - The current strong demand in the energy storage market and the seasonal peak of power batteries drive the rise of lithium carbonate. However, there are concerns about the resumption of production in Jiangxi and the increase in Australian ore production in the future [11][12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by government shutdowns, and silver shows a volatile rebound [15][20]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices rise due to improved risk sentiment; zinc shows a slight rebound; lead price increases are restricted by rising domestic inventories; tin is affected by macro factors; aluminum fluctuates in a range; nickel oscillates at a low level; stainless steel lacks upward drivers [15][24][27][30][32][35][38]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Iron ore prices fall due to inventory accumulation pressure; industrial silicon's center of gravity moves up; polycrystalline silicon trades based on supply - demand logic; coal and coke prices fluctuate at high levels; other chemical products have various trends such as volatile rebounds or downward trends [15][46][47][50][53][58][61].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight decline of 0.04% from November 3 to November 7, ranking low among all primary industries, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [1][2]. Industry Summary Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector's performance was characterized by a 0.04% decline, with energy metals up by 1.43%, industrial metals up by 0.42%, and precious metals down by 2.53% during the same period [1][2]. Copper Market Analysis - Copper prices faced pressure due to cooling macro sentiment, with LME copper closing at $10,695 per ton, down 1.80% week-on-week. Domestic copper prices also fell, with SHFE copper at 85,940 CNY per ton, down 1.23% [3]. - Supply concerns arose from potential closures of smelting facilities in Canada and ongoing disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Demand showed slight improvement, with a reduction in the discount for spot copper prices [3]. Aluminum Market Analysis - Aluminum prices showed high volatility, with LME aluminum closing at $2,862 per ton, down 0.90%, while SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 21,625 CNY per ton. The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum increased, and social inventory rose by 0.13% to 627,100 tons [4]. - Expectations for rising energy prices both domestically and internationally could support aluminum prices in the future [4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, with COMEX gold at $4,007.80 per ounce, down 0.14%, and SHFE gold at 921.26 CNY per gram, down 0.07%. The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for gold, with expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5]. - The market is currently in a bottoming phase for precious metals, with volatility decreasing significantly after a three-week correction period [5].