Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the liquor sector is undervalued and offers both defensive and offensive opportunities, while the food sector is poised for upward trends and high growth potential [1][2]. Liquor Sector - High-end liquor demand remains stable, with companies focusing on controlling supply to maintain prices, leading to a robust performance in Q1 [3]. - Moutai's price remains stable, with expectations of double-digit growth in Q1, while Wuliangye is projected to see slight growth [3]. - The performance of mid-range liquor companies is mixed, with some actively reducing market burdens [3]. - Regional brands continue to perform strongly, with competition intensifying in certain markets [3]. Food Sector - Overall demand in the food sector is stabilizing, with retail sales growth improving [4]. - The dairy sector is expected to see improved demand, while the seasoning and snack sectors continue to exhibit high growth [4][5]. - The seasoning sector is experiencing a recovery, although some companies face pressure due to high base effects from the previous year [6][7]. - The beer sector is adopting inventory reduction strategies, with demand expected to improve in the coming year [8]. Snack Foods - The snack food sector is performing steadily, with attention on single product growth and new channel opportunities [9]. - The demand for ready-to-eat foods is weak, with some companies facing pressure on sales and profits [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of the food and beverage index showed a 0.4% increase from March 24 to March 28, ranking third among primary sub-industries, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. The leading sub-industries included meat products (+2.9%), dairy products (+2.1%), and beer (+2.0%) [4][11][12] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant performance differentiation among companies, with several reporting improved earnings. For instance, Shuanghui Development experienced comprehensive profit improvement, while Tianwei Foods exceeded previous profit forecasts due to strong demand and reduced raw material costs [4][11] - The outlook for the first quarter of 2025 suggests that the industry is at a bottoming phase, with expectations of gradual performance recovery in subsequent quarters. It is recommended to increase allocations in the liquor, beer, and snack sectors [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index outperformed the market with a 0.4% increase, ranking third among industries. Key performers included Miaokelando, Guangming Meat, and Jiahe Foods, while Maikui'er, Lianhua Holdings, and Xiwang Foods faced declines [12][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For example, the price of fresh milk was 3.1 yuan/kg, down 12.5% year-on-year, while pork prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 20.9 yuan/kg [18][21] - The price of imported barley fell by 10.4% year-on-year, which may alleviate cost pressures for beer companies [27][28] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods, with each showing strong growth potential and strategic advantages in their respective markets [5][49]

Macro Economic Insights - The economic impact of fertility subsidies is significant, with potential annual consumption increase of 0.22%-0.25% and GDP uplift of 0.08%-0.09% from 2025 to 2029 if the subsidy scheme is widely adopted [6][7][10] - Industrial production remains strong, with a slight decline but still maintaining a high growth rate, while service sector growth has slowed [8][9] Retail Industry - In January-February 2025, the total retail sales reached 83,731 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, indicating a mild recovery in consumption [26][27] - Online retail sales grew by 7.3%, with physical goods online sales accounting for 22.3% of total retail sales [28] - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality brands in sectors like traditional retail, gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [29] Real Estate Sector - In January-February 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing compared to previous years [31][32] - New housing starts are down by 29.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [32][33] - Investment suggestions include strong credit real estate companies and those benefiting from both residential and commercial property recovery [34] Food and Beverage Sector - Online sales of liquor increased by 32.2% in February 2025, with a notable rise in the concentration of leading brands [35][36] - The snack food sector saw a decline in online sales, but there is still potential for growth in the overall market [39] - Investment focus is on liquor companies with strong fundamentals and market share potential, as well as the snack food sector's growth prospects [39] Technology and Automotive Sector - The smart driving business of the company is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 42.38% from 2021 to 2024 [50][51] - The company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, securing significant orders from well-known international brands [52]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 招商蛇口 (001979.SZ) due to its focus on core cities and stable sales ranking [41][42]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a moderate recovery in social consumption, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% in retail sales for January-February 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [26]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a narrowing decline in sales, with a reported decrease of 5.1% in sales area for January-February 2025, compared to a 12.9% decline for the entire year of 2024 [31]. - The food and beverage industry is witnessing a rebound in online sales for liquor, with a 32.2% year-on-year increase in sales for February 2025, highlighting a recovery in consumer preferences [35]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The report discusses the economic impact of fertility subsidies, estimating that if implemented nationwide, these subsidies could lead to an increase in newborns by approximately 32,000 to 76,000 in the first year, potentially boosting GDP by 0.08%-0.09% annually [6][7]. Retail Sector - The retail sector's total sales reached 83,731 billion yuan in January-February 2025, with urban and rural sales growing by 3.8% and 4.6% respectively [26][27]. - Online retail sales grew by 7.3%, with physical goods sales increasing by 5.0%, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [28]. Real Estate Sector - The report notes that the sales area for commercial housing decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than in previous periods, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [31][32]. - New housing starts fell by 29.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the construction sector [32][33]. Food and Beverage Sector - The online sales of liquor reached 1.62 billion yuan in February 2025, with a significant increase in average prices, suggesting a shift towards premium products [35][36]. - The report highlights a decline in online sales for snack foods, with a 17.3% year-on-year decrease, indicating challenges in this segment [37]. Company-Specific Insights - 招商蛇口 reported a revenue increase of 2.25% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 36.09% due to high land cost impairments [41][42]. - 丘钛科技 (01478.HK) has revised its profit forecast upwards for 2025, anticipating a net profit of 670 million yuan, driven by improvements in gross margins and operational efficiencies [46][47]. - 德赛西威 (002920.SZ) achieved a revenue growth of 26.06% year-on-year, with a strong performance in its intelligent driving segment, indicating robust demand in the automotive sector [50][51].

行 华福证券 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 食品饮料 复苏预期持续强化，白酒进入估值修复阶段 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【白酒】春节整体基本面或处于底部待反转区间，同时节后白酒企业密集 停止发货，预计停货对价格的支撑在短期内即可显现，后续价格预期积极， 需求端复苏或缓释销售端压力。白酒作为顺周期板块，预期带动估值修复 往往先于基本面，估值具备较强安全边际和配置属性。建议关注可攻可守 的山西汾酒，保价控量、具备降维打击、市占率提升能力的茅台、五粮液 以及受益于婚宴回补的古井贡酒、今世缘、迎驾贡酒。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】百润股份作为预调酒行业龙头企业，公司历史行情通常为大单 品所驱动的 PE 扩张，行情较快，操作上更适合左侧布局，目前公司威士忌 已正式上市，当前公司 25 年 PE 为 37 倍上下，我们认为具备较大赔率。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The recent local fertility policies have effectively boosted consumer confidence, particularly benefiting the liquor and dairy sectors [4][5]. - The liquor sector is currently at a low valuation, presenting a high margin of safety, and is expected to benefit directly from the recovery in consumption and increased consumer spending [4]. - The dairy sector is experiencing significant growth due to new child-rearing subsidies aimed at reducing costs and increasing birth rates, which will drive demand for dairy products [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a monthly performance increase of 9.0%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 1.7% [2]. Recent Research - Recent reports highlight the government's focus on expanding domestic demand and improving the consumption environment [3]. Investment Views - Liquor Sector: The sector has seen substantial growth due to the announcement of fertility policies and consumption-boosting measures. Key recommendations include Water Well Square, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiu Gui Liquor, with a broader recommendation for Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others [4]. - Consumer Goods Sector: The dairy segment has surged due to policy catalysts, with recommendations for Ximai Foods, Youyou Foods, and others. Long-term opportunities are noted for Yuran Livestock, Modern Farming, and major dairy companies [5]. Key Company Feedback - The report includes specific company performance metrics, with Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu among those recommended for investment based on their earnings forecasts and market positions [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Views - The food and beverage industry is expected to gradually improve due to signs of recovery in real estate data and supportive policies [5][8] - The report highlights three main investment themes for 2025: focusing on industry leaders with strong fundamentals, companies that may benefit from demand recovery, and those undergoing management improvements [5][8] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector saw a 1.64% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.86% during the week of February 24-28, 2025 [5][8] - Key stocks such as Jinse Yuan (+12.12%) and Zhenjiu Lidu (+8.37%) led the gains [5][8] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.99 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 1.77% compared to a 2.22% decline in the index [15] - Various sub-sectors showed positive trends, including snacks (+4.30%) and meat products (+3.52%) [16] Key Data Tracking - As of February 28, 2025, the overall valuation of the food and beverage sector was 20.25x (PE-TTM), significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.55x [20] - The liquor segment's valuation was noted at 19.50x, while snacks and health products were at 32.11x [20] Company Announcements - Jinse Yuan reported a significant increase in sales, with a 72% growth in its V3 product line [47] - Other companies like Salted Fish and Anqi Yeast also made notable announcements regarding their performance and future projects [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to gradually recover, supported by resilient operations and structural opportunities within the industry [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, Anhui's large-scale liquor enterprises achieved revenue of 37.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with total profits reaching 12.77 billion yuan, up 13.2% [4][21] - The liquor industry in Lüliang aims for a revenue target exceeding 70 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on enhancing production capacity and quality [4][22] - The Sichuan liquor group targets a revenue of 40 billion yuan in 2025, emphasizing innovation and brand development [5][22] - Xishui aims for a liquor output value exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2025, continuing to strengthen its position as a major liquor production base [6][23] Key Company Performances - Qiaqia Food reported a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 4.79%, driven by high-end products [7][24] - Budweiser Asia Pacific's 2024 revenue was approximately 45.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0%, with a notable decline in the Chinese market [10][25] - Dongpeng Beverage launched a new product "Fruit Tea" aimed at the lower-tier market, reflecting a growing demand for cost-effective, large-packaged beverages [11][26] Investment Recommendations - For liquor, focus on companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Jiuzi Liquor, and others that cater to both high-end and real estate segments [16][30] - In the beer sector, consider Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer for their product optimization and market expansion strategies [16][30] - For soft drinks, Dongpeng Beverage and Bai Run Co. are recommended for their national expansion and clear product matrix [16][30] - In the frozen food segment, companies like Anji Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen are highlighted for their potential growth [16][31] - For snacks, attention is drawn to Salted Fish and Qiaqia Food for their channel expansion and performance recovery [16][31]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable investment outlook for the volume snack store industry in China, highlighting significant growth potential and market opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The volume snack store industry in China has experienced rapid growth, with market size increasing from 1.81 billion to 41.47 billion from 2018 to 2022, achieving a CAGR of 87.0%. It is projected to reach 217.29 billion by 2027 [5][26][29]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by frequent mergers and acquisitions among leading brands, indicating a shift towards consolidation in the industry [4][7]. - The industry is transitioning towards community-based consumption, with volume snack stores emerging as a preferred retail channel due to their cost-effectiveness and convenience [6][35]. Market Overview - The volume snack store industry is defined as a new retail format that focuses on offering a wide variety of snacks at competitive prices, primarily targeting lower-tier markets [16][17]. - The market has seen a significant increase in the number of stores, with estimates suggesting over 60,000 stores by 2027 [6]. - The industry is benefiting from a shift in consumer preferences towards affordable and diverse snack options, particularly among younger demographics [42]. Industry Chain - The industry chain consists of upstream snack suppliers, midstream volume snack stores, and downstream consumers who prioritize cost-effectiveness and quality assurance [40][42]. - Major suppliers include well-known snack manufacturers that provide a mix of branded and private-label products, with a significant portion of sales coming from bulk private-label snacks [42]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is described as fragmented, with no single dominant player, but notable brands like "Snack Busy" and "Wancheng Biological" are rapidly expanding their market presence through acquisitions [7][29]. - The report highlights the strategic mergers between leading brands, such as "Snack Busy" and "Zhao Yiming," as a key trend in the industry [7][29]. Growth Drivers - The growth of the volume snack store industry is driven by the increasing demand for snacks, with the overall snack market in China reaching 1,535.97 billion in 2022 and expected to grow further [31][34]. - Continuous capital investment is facilitating the rapid expansion of volume snack stores, with significant funding rounds reported in recent years [36][38].

证 券 研 究 报 告 | 行 业 定 期 报 告 2 0 2 4 年 1 2 月 9 日 签 约 客 户 可 长 按 扫 码 阅 读 报 告 近期酒企召开经销商大会等，对明年增长定调，茅台、汾酒、今世缘等管理 层纷纷表态。各家酒企对明年目标更加理性务实，进入供给侧主动收缩去包袱的阶 段，市场将更关注实际动销，股价或先于报表出现拐点。 食品板块提前完成去库存，四季度有望继续环比改善，调味品龙头低基数下 增长加速，液态奶降幅收窄，零食公司备战春节旺季。中期来看，乳制品、饮料、 榨菜等细分龙头率先走出调整，未来 1-2 年有望盈利上修。 最新观点 核心公司跟踪：汾酒 25 年巩固期稳定为主，中炬无偿受让厨邦少数股权 山西汾酒： 汾酒 2024 年度经销商大会总结了在汾酒复兴纲领实施的第一阶段的高质量发展成效。此外，青 26 新品上市，公司还提出了四轮驱动。 25 年巩固期稳定为主，预计增长目标有望回归合理。 中炬高新： 阳西美味鲜无偿受让朗天慧德持有的厨邦公司 20% 股权，本次股权转让完成后，厨邦公司成为中炬 的全资孙公司，厨邦公司 20% 股权对应的平均少数股东损益对公司净利润的平均贡献率为 6.31% 。 ...