样本建筑工地资金到位率创近 3 月高位，有望进一步支撑钢材需求 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [钢铁Table_StockAndRank] 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 能源、钢铁行业研究助理 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [样本建筑工地资金到位率创近 Table_Title] 3 月高位，有望进一步支 撑钢材需求 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 ...

Group 1 - The "Belt and Road" initiative has significantly boosted trade cooperation between China and participating countries, with Zhejiang Province's imports and exports to these countries reaching 979.49 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, an increase of 7.4%, accounting for 56% of the province's total trade [1] - Zhejiang Baojing Glass Technology Co., Ltd. has seen a surge in demand for its refrigerator glass doors in tropical regions, with orders increasing significantly compared to last year, benefiting from the China-ASEAN Certificate of Origin which provided over 400,000 yuan in tariff reductions [1] - The company is currently ramping up production to meet the growing orders in the second quarter, indicating a strong market opportunity driven by seasonal demand [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Jiuli Special Materials Co., Ltd. is one of the largest manufacturers of industrial stainless steel pipes in China, exporting products widely used in critical industries such as oil, gas, and machinery to Belt and Road countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar [2] - The company has introduced new nickel alloy stainless steel pipe fittings for export to Qatar, benefiting from customs processing trade policies that help reduce costs and meet high-quality demands from customers [2] - In the first quarter, the company's exports reached 614 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, showcasing the positive impact of customs policies on business operations [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Macro Economy**: Focus on consumption and infrastructure performance - **Overseas Technology**: Google, Trump administration, Apple - **Medical Devices**: Domestic market recovery and international expansion Key Points and Arguments Macro Economy - Consumption and infrastructure show resilience, while real estate, exports, and production face pressure [1][2] - Strong performance in automotive consumption; infrastructure investment is accelerating [1][2] - Real estate market remains under pressure; port operations for imports and exports are slowing down [1][2] - Overall production indicators in sectors like power generation, steel, petrochemicals, and automotive are declining [2] Overseas Technology - Google released Gemini 2.5 Pro, enhancing front-end development and complex programming capabilities [4] - The model allows users to create interactive web applications with simple prompts, significantly lowering entry barriers for developers [4] - Trump administration plans to revoke Biden-era AI chip export restrictions, aiming to simplify regulations and boost innovation [5] - Apple is considering integrating AI search features into its Safari browser, potentially ending its long-standing partnership with Google [6] Medical Devices - The domestic medical device market is expected to face pressure in 2024 due to centralized procurement and bidding rhythms, but international expansion remains positive [7][8] - Domestic market revenue growth for medical devices is projected to be flat or negative in the short term, with a gradual recovery expected as inventory is digested [8] - Key players in the medical device sector include Huatai Medical, Aibo Medical, and others, focusing on domestic replacement and international breakthroughs [7][8] Medical Consumables - Overall performance remains stable, with some high-value consumables experiencing a slowdown due to industry restructuring and price adjustments [9] - The electrophysiology sector is expected to maintain rapid growth due to increased domestic penetration and international market expansion [9] In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) - The domestic IVD market is under short-term pressure, with revenue growth projected to be negative in the coming quarters [10] - The overseas market is becoming a significant growth point for IVD companies, with expectations for continued expansion [11] Steel Industry - Steel demand has decreased, with inventory levels rising; however, a recovery is anticipated post-holiday [22][24] - The industry is expected to stabilize as real estate demand declines and infrastructure investment continues [24] - Recommendations include leading steel companies like Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and high-quality development [21][24] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Risks include uncertainties in trade relations, domestic growth policies not meeting expectations, and geopolitical risks affecting the technology sector [2][5][6] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on innovation and adaptation in response to regulatory changes and competitive pressures [5][6][9] - The medical device sector is seeing a shift towards domestic production and international market penetration, with significant growth potential in high-end equipment and diagnostics [7][8]

宏观政策发力，投资品如何布局？20250512 摘要 • 红利策略在经济下行背景下凸显重要性，叠加公募基金高质量发展行动方 案的推动，红利资产配置需求增加，成为跑赢基准的趋势。关注分红比例 提高的公司，将其作为底仓配置。 • AI 应用领域虽催化剂众多，但兑现需时，预期偏高。经济压力可能导致二 次调整，但幅度有限。AI 应用仍是主线，关注长期发展潜力。 • 油价下跌是城市燃气降本的主要逻辑，2024 年进口 LNG 价格中枢下降。 若 LNG 价格进一步下跌，国内现货具备赚取价差空间，看好降本带来的盈 利能力改善。 • 黄金价格受地缘冲突和美国经济韧性驱动，高位震荡。利润框架向信用框 架切换是长期上涨背景，短期调整是买入机会。板块估值仍偏低，关注龙 头公司业绩。 • 有色金属板块中，铜、铝等品种估值偏低。中国加码逆周期政策降低关税 影响，回调风险可控。关注长期景气高位且具备分红属性的品种，以及受 政策驱动的小金属。 Q&A 当前宏观政策持续发力，资本市场在国家政策中的定位如何变化？对投资策略 有何影响？ 公用事业行业一季度表现如何？各子领域有哪些差异？ 一季度能源需求较弱，无论是天然气还是电力需求增速均有所下 ...

证券研究报告 钢铁 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 12 日 铁水日产高位微增，关注淡季需求支撑 ——钢铁行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 执业证书编号：S0230124010004 邮箱：pengy@hlzq.com 同推进化解过剩产能—钢铁行业周报》 2025.04.01 行业周报》2025.03.18 《以高质量供给引领需求，综合整治"内 卷式"竞争—钢铁行业点评报告》 2025.03.05 摘要： 供给端：截至 2025 年 5 月 9 日，五大钢材合计产量 874.17 万吨， 周环比下降 1.08%，同比下降 1.31%;247 家钢铁企业铁水日均产 量 245.64 万吨，周环比上升 0.09%，同比上升 4.75%;247 家钢铁 企业高炉产能利用率 92.09%，周环比上升 0.09 pct，同比上升 4.42 pct;87 家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率 55.08%,周环比下降 0.38 pct,同比上升 3.20 pct。本周五大钢材中除热轧冷轧卷板 外，其他钢材供给周环比下降 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a slight increase in daily molten iron production, indicating a focus on seasonal demand support during the off-peak period [1] - The industry is expected to maintain stability supported by the real estate sector and manufacturing [8] - The report emphasizes the necessity for industry consolidation and the exit of outdated capacity, leading to an increase in industry concentration and a shift towards high-quality product development [8] Supply Side - As of May 9, 2025, the total output of five major steel products was 8.7417 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.31% [4][21] - The average daily molten iron production of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4564 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 4.75% [4][21] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 92.09%, up 0.09 percentage points week-on-week and up 4.42 percentage points year-on-year [4][21] Demand Side - The total consumption of five major steel products was 8.4520 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.14% [4][27] - The daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.10% [4][27] - Monthly steel exports totaled 10.4563 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 30.12% and a year-on-year increase of 5.75% [4][27] Inventory - As of May 9, 2025, the total social inventory of five major steel products was 10.3304 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.91% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.64% [4][43] - The total factory inventory was 4.4303 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.57% [4][43] Cost - As of May 9, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 758.25 RMB/wet ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.67% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.50% [4][66] - The comprehensive absolute price index for scrap steel was 2,426.44 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.09% [4][66] Price - As of May 9, 2025, the Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 3,453.7 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.76% [4][71] - The Mysteel absolute price index for special steel was 9,344.18 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.54% [4][71]

周期论剑｜外部冲击下周期的价值 20250511 摘要 在当前经济形势下，如何看待中国股票市场的投资机会？ 投资者对经济形势的认识逐步充分，目前投资中国股市的机会成本正在快速下 降。国内政策的连续性有望稳定风险前景，继续看好中国市场，特别是金融、 科技和部分周期板块。策略团队在 4 月 7 日市场低点时明确判断中国股票市场 进入击球区，并持续看多中国股市。本周上证指数再度上涨 1.92%，收复了对 等关税以来的指数失地。今年 3~4 月份股票市场调整和投资者情绪修复，是自 去年 9 月 24 日之后非常重要的一次转折。这表明了投资者对于中美竞争严峻 性以及决策层扭转经济形势决心的疑虑有所削减，是风险释放也是试金石。下 一阶段继续维持乐观看法，理由包括：经历冲击后投资者对经济形势认识已然 充分；美国对等关税后总体进入拉锯和谈判窗口期；中美之间竞争长期存在， 股票市场预期关键在内不在外。政治局会议及国新办发布会释放了以内部确定 性应对外部不确定性的信号，存量政策加速部署，增量政策箭在弦上，中国股 • 煤炭价格加速下行，但供给收缩、需求旺季来临，不宜继续看空市场。中 美贸易冲突对二产用电影响有限，动力煤企业平均成本 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry has experienced a significant increase in molten iron production, while the inventory of five major steel products has been reduced, indicating improved demand year-on-year. However, this is contradicted by declining steel prices and feedback from steel companies regarding average order quality [2][4]. - The report highlights the paradox of high molten iron production amidst declining demand, suggesting that understanding the production process and statistical measures is crucial to explain this discrepancy [4][8]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand has fluctuated due to holiday effects, with a notable decrease in apparent consumption of the five major steel products, down 10.75% year-on-year and 14.69% month-on-month. Average daily transaction volume for construction steel decreased to 102,700 tons, a drop of 960 tons per day compared to the previous week [4]. - Molten iron production continues to rise, with average daily production reaching 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 0.22 tons per day month-on-month. The production of five major steel products decreased by 0.89% year-on-year and 1.27% month-on-month [4][8]. - Total steel inventory has shifted to accumulation due to a significant drop in demand, increasing by 2.18% month-on-month. Long product inventory decreased by 18.07% year-on-year, while plate inventory decreased by 14.00% year-on-year [4][8]. Production Insights - The average daily molten iron production from 247 sample steel companies is 2.3336 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The weekly average apparent consumption of five major steel products is 10.82 million tons, nearly unchanged year-on-year [4][8]. - The report notes that the marginal substitution of molten iron for scrap steel has become more pronounced due to a significant drop in metallurgical coke prices, leading to increased molten iron input by steel companies [8]. Market Trends - The report indicates that steel billet exports have significantly increased due to domestic steel price declines and limited overseas import restrictions, with exports reaching 2.56 million tons in the first three months, a year-on-year increase of 200 million tons [8]. - The supply of non-mainstream steel products has increased by 10.6% to match crude steel growth, despite challenges in achieving a 10% demand growth rate for these products [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on undervalued quality state-owned enterprises such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, as well as companies with strong shareholder returns like CITIC Special Steel. It also highlights the potential of mergers and acquisitions in the sector [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to influence market dynamics positively [8][14]. - The steel sector has experienced a three-year adjustment period, leading to a favorable cost-performance ratio at current levels. The profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks, with domestic demand pricing becoming more relevant due to high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The average price for rebar is 3,296 CNY per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8% [15][18][37]. - The overall steel price index has seen a minor decline of 0.71%, with cold-rolled steel prices dropping by 1.33% [37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fee has deepened into negative territory, with a reported fee of -43.5 USD per thousand tons, indicating a challenging environment for copper producers [17]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to increased demand driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. The COMEX gold price reached 3,329.1 USD per ounce, a 2.52% increase week-on-week [17]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in March 2025 reached 71,260 tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.53%. The price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 65,700 CNY per ton [16][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to impact the market positively. The steel sector, having undergone three years of adjustment, now presents a favorable cost-performance ratio, with leading companies showing improved profitability and stability [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are experiencing notable loosening, with expectations that May's iron and steel production may peak. The steel mills are likely to squeeze iron ore profits, leading to potential downward feedback on prices. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is seen as advantageous given the high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The overall price index for common steel has slightly declined by 0.71%, with rebar prices at 3,296 CNY/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week [15][37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fees have deepened into negative territory, with the current rough smelting fee at -43.5 USD/thousand tons, a decrease of 8.21% week-on-week. The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang slightly increasing while those in Shandong have decreased significantly [17][29]. Precious Metals - Tariffs are expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, leading to a potential rise in gold prices. As of May 9, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,329.1 USD/ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.52% [17][37]. Investment Recommendations - For the steel sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies such as Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) and Jiugang Steel (002110, Not Rated). In the non-ferrous sector, investment in Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy) and Jinchuan Group (300748, Buy) is suggested [8][17].