淮北矿业控股股份有限公司 公开发行可转换公司债券 受托管理事务报告 （2024 年度） 债券受托管理人 （安徽省合肥市梅山路 18 号） 二〇二五年六月 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办法》"）《淮 北矿业控股股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券之受托管理协议》（以下简称 "《受托管理协议》"）《淮北矿业控股股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券募集 说明书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"）《淮北矿业控股股份有限公司 2024 年年度 报告》等相关公开信息披露文件、第三方中介机构出具的专业意见等，由本期债券受 托管理人国元证券股份有限公司（以下简称"国元证券"）编制。国元证券对本报告 中所包含的从上述文件中引述内容和信息未进行独立验证，也不就该等引述内容和信 息的真实性、准确性和完整性做出任何保证或承担任何责任。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推荐意见，投资者应对相关事宜 做出独立判断，而不应将本报告中的任何内容据以作为国元证券所作的承诺或声明。 在任何情况下，投资者依据本报告所进行的任何作为或不作为，国元证券不承担任何 责任。 1 | 重要声明 1 | | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke's fourth - round price cut has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down by 220 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down by 240 yuan/ton. Steel is in the off - season, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel mills' production enthusiasm is good, and iron - molten output has slightly rebounded. Coke supply is tending to be loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate. [6] - For coking coal, due to stricter safety inspections and environmental supervision in some coal mines in Shanxi, supply has tightened marginally. Coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized. The coking coal spot market is running steadily, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2601 closed at 1424.0, down 24.5; J2605 closed at 1450.0, down 32.0. [2] - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2601 closed at 843.5, down 16.0; JM2605 closed at 866.0, down 13.5. [2] - **Spot Market**: Coke's邢台出厂价is 1560 yuan/ton with no change; coking coal's澳洲低挥发is 868 yuan/ton, down 1. [2] - **Coking Profit**: 01盘面利润is 251.7 yuan/ton, down 8.3 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [2] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamentals**: 247 steel enterprises' iron - molten daily output is 241.6, up 0.57 (0.24% month - on - month). The daily output of all - sample independent coking plants is 65.0, down 0.34 (- 0.52% month - on - month). [2] - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: 110 coal - washing plants' refined coal daily output is 47.8, down 3.5 (6.70% month - on - month). The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal is 798.1, down 2.3 (- 0.29% month - on - month). [2] 3.3 Important News - In May 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 158.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. [4] - On June 24, the main port iron ore transactions in China were 81.30 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.2%; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel transactions were 9.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%. [5] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Coke: With the fourth - round price cut implemented, steel is in the off - season, and coke supply is loose. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate. [6] - Coking Coal: Supply has tightened marginally, prices have stopped falling and stabilized. The spot market is stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. [6]

Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The report presents a unique research framework that suggests pig prices may stabilize before declining, reaching a low by the end of the year, with capacity reduction being a current industry theme [2][4] - The analysis indicates that the pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the current phase is characterized by price declines and capacity reduction, with a focus on the impacts of prices, policies, and diseases [4][5] Group 2: Duty-Free Industry - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the sales decline in the duty-free sector, with a strong rebound in average transaction value, indicating signs of data recovery [2][10] - The implementation of the "immediate buy and refund" policy nationwide is expected to enhance the shopping conversion rate for foreign consumers in China [12][20] - The report suggests that the duty-free channel has significant price advantages, allowing it to capture market share effectively, with products like cosmetics being priced at 70-80% of taxable prices [12][22] Group 3: Debt Market - The report anticipates a key strategy shift in the debt market, with expectations of a long-term decline in broad interest rates due to economic data divergence and capital market resilience [6][7] - It discusses the potential for credit bond rates to decrease, enhancing the attractiveness of government bonds [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity and interest rate trends, suggesting that the debt market may experience a rebound [6][7] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Industry - The report indicates that the solid-state battery industry is entering a phase of accelerated industrialization, supported by government policies and funding [24][25] - It highlights the significant market potential for solid-state batteries in various applications, including electric vehicles and low-altitude aircraft [25][26] - The report notes that leading companies are making progress in developing solid-state battery prototypes, which is expected to attract more players into the market [26][27] Group 5: Construction Industry - The report outlines that broad infrastructure investment increased by 9.2% year-on-year, while real estate investment decreased by 12% [28][30] - It emphasizes the need for continued policy support to stabilize the real estate market and improve market confidence [30][31] - The report recommends several construction companies with high dividend yields as potential investment opportunities [31]

6月23日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3381.58点，上涨0.65%，深证成指收报10048.39点，上涨0.43%，创业板指数收报2017.63 点，上涨0.39%，北证50指数上涨1.54%。A股市场合计成交11470.72亿元，较上一交易日增加552.33亿元。 2.沪深300今日主力资金净流出13.11亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出13.11亿元，创业板净流出3.33亿元，科创板净流出10.69亿元。 | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2025-6-23 | -13. 11 | -3. 33 | -10. 69 | | 2025-6-20 | -29.60 | -118. 48 | -6. 41 | | 2025-6-19 | -56. 94 | -176. 85 | -4. 24 | | 2025-6-18 | 16. 90 | -81. 97 | -9. 47 | | 2025-6-17 | -8. 40 | -98. 43 | 5. ...

（原标题：23股今日获机构买入评级 5股上涨空间超20%） 23只个股今日获机构买入型评级，11股机构首次关注。 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，今日机构研报共发布23条买入型评级记录，共涉及23只个股。美的集团、 甘肃能源等关注度最高，均有1次机构买入型评级记录。 今日获机构买入型评级个股中，共有6条评级记录中对相关个股给出了未来目标价。以公布的预测目标 价与最新收盘价进行对比显示，共有5股上涨空间超20%，亚翔集成上涨空间最高，6月23日华泰证券预 计公司目标价为38.40元，上涨空间达29.55%，上涨空间较高的个股还有美的集团、淮北矿业等，上涨 空间分别为25.15%、21.10%。 行业来看，电子、计算机等行业最受青睐，均有3只个股上榜机构买入评级榜。电力设备、有色金属等 行业也较受机构关注，分别有2只、2只个股上榜。（数据宝） 机构今日买入型评级记录 | 代码 | 简称 | 机构名称 | 最新评级 | 上次评级 | 预测 | | 最新收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 目标价（元） | | 价（元） | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3] - The report highlights that domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of production cuts as prices continue to decline [3] - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and others, emphasizing that performance-driven stocks will outperform [3][7] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - In May 2025, India's coal imports rebounded, primarily supported by coking coal imports, with total imports reaching 25.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% and a month-on-month increase of 15.28%, marking the highest level since July 2022 [6][2] - The report notes that the coking coal market remains relatively stable, particularly for high-quality hard coking coal, due to tightening supply from Australia [6] - The performance of the electricity, steel, and cement sectors shows significant divergence, with electricity generation from coal declining by 9.5% year-on-year, while crude steel production increased by 9.5% due to infrastructure development [6] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) - Buy - Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7] Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, Newcastle coal prices (6000K) are at $218.90 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $91.35 per ton, up by $0.10 per ton [35] - The report indicates that coal prices in Europe ARA ports remain stable at $89.00 per ton, with no change from the previous week [35]

Group 1: Global Gas Turbine and Aerospace Engine Demand - The demand for gas turbines is expected to surge, with GE Vernova projecting a backlog of 60GW by the end of 2025, with orders signed until 2028 [3][4] - In Q1 2025, GE Vernova added 7.1GW in new gas turbine orders, a 44.9% year-on-year increase, primarily from heavy-duty gas turbine orders [3][4] - The aerospace engine market is experiencing robust demand, with Boeing reporting a net addition of 300 aircraft orders in May 2025, raising its backlog to 5943 aircraft [5][6] Group 2: High-Temperature Alloy and Chromium Salt Industry - The growth in gas turbine and aerospace engine demand is driving the need for high-temperature alloys, with domestic manufacturers poised to benefit from supply chain constraints [9][13] - Companies like Zhenhua Co. and Sry New Materials are expanding their production capabilities and reporting significant revenue growth from overseas markets [9][10] - The high-temperature alloy sector is rated as "recommended" due to the increasing demand for core components amid supply chain shifts towards China [13] Group 3: Coal Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, China's industrial raw coal production reached 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating a recovery in the coal supply [15][18] - The industrial electricity generation in May 2025 showed a positive shift, with coal-fired power generation increasing by 1.2% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [19][22] - The coal market is witnessing a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with coal prices stabilizing and inventory levels decreasing [21][23] Group 4: Real Estate and Land Market Factors - The land market's performance is influenced by five key factors, including financing environment, new housing market stability, inventory reduction, sales model changes, and land supply rules [24][27] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant recovery in the real estate market, with new housing transactions positively impacting land market activity [29][30] - The land market is entering a "dual concentration" phase, with significant activity concentrated in major cities and among top real estate firms [25][26] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) is leveraging its position in Yiwu to enhance its global trade capabilities, with a projected revenue growth of 25% from 2025 to 2027 [36][39] - Huayi Group is diversifying its operations across five core business areas, reporting a revenue increase of 9.3% in 2024 [40]

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new investment opportunities in the 3D printing sector, particularly driven by the popularity of LABUBU, which is expected to boost demand for PLA materials [7][9][10] - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on commodity prices, particularly in the energy sector, and suggests that these tensions may lead to increased volatility in oil and gas prices [10][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and employment data, which are expected to influence monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [6][10] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,387.40, down 0.04% [4] - The new materials sector experienced a 0.68% increase, outperforming the ChiNext Index by 0.47% [9] - The report notes a significant drop in coal imports, with a 17.75% year-on-year decrease in May, indicating a tightening supply [17][20] Industry Commentary Chemical Raw Materials - The report indicates that the demand for PLA is set to rise due to the popularity of LABUBU, which has sparked interest in 3D printing [7][9] - The prices of key materials such as amino acids and vitamins remained stable, with some minor fluctuations noted [9] Power Equipment and New Energy - The report discusses advancements in smart elderly care robots and their potential applications in various settings, highlighting a strategic partnership between Kepler and Hanwei Technology Group [10] - The report also mentions the National Energy Administration's initiatives to explore off-grid hydrogen production, which could reshape the energy landscape [10] Basic Chemicals - The report notes that the contract price for potassium fertilizer has increased to $346 per ton, up from $273 per ton last year, reflecting rising global commodity prices [12][14] - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions may disrupt the supply of certain chemicals, particularly those imported from Iran and Israel [14][15] Coal - The report highlights a slight increase in coal production, with a total output of 1.985 billion tons from January to May, marking a 6.0% year-on-year increase [17] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in coal prices during the summer, driven by seasonal demand [20] Home Appliances - The report indicates that the home appliance sector is transitioning from explosive restocking to stable demand, with export growth slowing [21][22] - Rising shipping costs are impacting the industry, with significant increases in freight rates observed across various shipping routes [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the production of PLA and those benefiting from the growth of the 3D printing market, such as Haizheng Biomaterials and Jindan Technology [7][9] - In the coal sector, companies like Shanxi Coal International and Jincheng Anthracite Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their positioning in a recovering market [20] - The report suggests monitoring companies in the home appliance sector, particularly those with strong dividend yields and limited downside potential, such as Midea Group and Gree Electric Appliances [22]

Core Insights - The current ten-year government bonds have high investment value, optimizing risk-return performance in portfolios and showing low correlation with other assets like stocks and gold [2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for ten-year bonds, with a loose monetary policy and weak credit demand, leading to better performance compared to other assets during this phase [2][3] Ten-Year Government Bond Historical Analysis - The long-term trend indicates a downward shift in interest rates, primarily driven by declining real returns, with expectations of lower financing costs due to weakening prices [3] - Financial institutions are experiencing a downward trend in earnings, with deposit and investment product yields decreasing further from the beginning of the year [3] - Supply-demand dynamics and central bank liquidity support are expected to drive interest rates lower, with a potential asset shortage emerging as bond supply slows [3] Ten-Year Government Bond Advantages - Interest rates are anticipated to reach new lows, with expectations of the ten-year bond yield dropping to 1.4%-1.5% within the year [4] - The ten-year bond serves as a crucial benchmark rate, balancing long and short-term funding needs and is a key reference for pricing other financial products [4] - The 国泰上证 10-year government bond ETF is the only ETF tracking the ten-year bond index, utilizing an optimized sampling method to enhance liquidity and reduce trading costs [4][5] ETF Characteristics - The 国债 ETF operates on a T+0 trading mechanism, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which facilitates multiple trading opportunities within a single day [5] - The ETF maintains transparency in holdings, with daily disclosures, making it suitable for conservative long-term investors [5] - The ETF has low fees, high liquidity, and a strong historical performance, managed by experienced fund managers [5] Industry Performance Overview - The steel industry saw a 6.9% year-on-year decline in crude steel production in May, indicating a need for further observation regarding production strength [14] - The coal industry experienced a continued decline in imports, with a slight increase in thermal power generation, suggesting a potential rebound in demand [15]

摘要 煤炭板块跑输大盘，但长协政策稳定动力煤价格，叠加政策加码和行业 协会倡议，有助于减少煤价非理性波动，较低煤价有望促成自上而下的 减产，维持合理季节性波动。 2025 年一季度动力煤市场受暖冬影响需求偏弱，但夏季旺季电煤和非 电煤需求叠加释放，有望带动煤炭价格触底反弹，进口煤受限预计难有 增量。 长协政策通过提高覆盖率和两大协会的倡议，有效应对市场价格下滑， 长协价成为稳定器，保障电厂利润，预计 2025 年季节性波动维持在合 理范围内。 煤炭行业具备反弹基础，较低财政压力和企业现金流亏损将促成减产， 联动机制在一定程度上保住了电厂利润，长线支撑偏强。 煤炭股估值整体处于较低水平，截至 2025 年 6 月 3 日 PE 为 11 倍， PB 为 1.32 倍，小于中位数 1.65 倍，在经济转型和政策支持下，核心 价值有望提升。 Q&A 如何评价 2025 年煤炭行业的投资价值？ 2025 年煤炭行业的投资价值主要体现在其高股息和多频次的高分红兼备，凸 显出防御性红利价值。尽管国内经济缓慢修复，煤炭板块跌幅明显，从 2025 年年初到 6 月 3 日，煤炭板块累计跌幅 11.98%，跑输沪深 300 指 ...