Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the pre - Spring Festival off - season, downstream开工率continues to decline, with some factories shutting down for holidays. Pre - holiday demand support is limited. Supply - side weekly production remains high, increasing pressure and leading to inventory accumulation. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to note that the planned maintenance volume in February and March is limited, and supply is expected to remain under high pressure. Attention should be paid to the intensity of continuous inventory transfer downward. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly within a range, with attention to the 6700 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention to the 6600 support level. The strategy is mainly to sell on rallies [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Plastic 1.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6812 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.88%. The average price of LDPE was 8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% compared to the previous period. The average price of HDPE was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7018.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 206.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.63%. The May - September spread was - 52 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Key Data Tracking 1.2.1 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was 54 yuan/ton with a change of - 27 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 52 yuan/ton with a change of +3 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 2 yuan/ton with a change of +24 yuan/ton [18] 1.2.2 Spot Price - The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in Northeast China, the price of HDPE film decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and in North China, the price of LDPE film decreased by 75 yuan/ton [19] 1.2.3 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [22] 1.2.4 Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [27] 1.2.5 Supply - This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly polyethylene production was 71.24 tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The maintenance loss this week was 7.86 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons compared to the previous week [32] 1.2.6 2026 Production Capacity Expansion Plan - Multiple companies have production capacity expansion plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [35] 1.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhongyuan Petrochemical, have some production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [36] 1.2.8 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25%. The operating rate of PE pipes was 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16% [38] 1.2.9 Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.6%, which differs from the annual average by 2.9%. The data of low - pressure film differs significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.5%, which differs from the annual average by 3.7% [42] 1.2.10 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.50 tons, an increase of 0.54 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% [44] 1.2.11 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 9428 lots, an increase of 49 lots compared to the previous week [47] 2. PP 2.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 1.95% [51] 2.2 Key Data Tracking 2.2.1 Downstream Spot Price - The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP granule T30S decreased by 7 yuan compared to the previous day [55] 2.2.2 Basis - On February 6th, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6640 yuan/ton (+2.13%). The PP basis closed at - 51 yuan/ton (with a change of 53 yuan/ton), and the May - September spread was - 32 yuan/ton (with a change of 1 yuan/ton) [57] 2.2.3 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 yuan/ton with a change of +18 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton with a change of +1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 37 yuan/ton with a change of - 19 yuan/ton [63] 2.2.4 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [66] 2.2.5 Profit - The profit of oil - based PP was - 626.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.01 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 161.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79.61 yuan/ton [71] 2.2.6 Supply - This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 73.92%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly production of PP pellets reached 76.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.89%. The weekly production of PP powder reached 5.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [75] 2.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical, have production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [79] 2.2.8 Demand - This week, the average operating rate of PP downstream was 49.84% (- 2.24%). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 36.74% (- 5.30%), the operating rate of BOPP was 64.55% (+0.38%), the operating rate of injection molding was 53.02% (- 4.60%), and the operating rate of pipes was 33.70% (- 3.17%) [81] 2.2.9 Import and Export Profit - This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 351.35 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.62 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 46.57 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.63 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87] 2.2.10 Inventory - This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 41.58 tons (+3.72%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies increased by 14.92% compared to the previous week; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.11% compared to the previous week; the port inventory decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous week [89] 2.2.11 Inventory of Downstream Products - This week, the finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 839.78 tons, a decrease of 7.94% compared to the previous week. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 15.04 days, an increase of 7.66% compared to the previous week [93] 2.2.12 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17204 lots, a decrease of 32 lots compared to the previous week [97]

截至10：26，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨0.83%，权重股万华化学涨0.12%，中国石油跌0.37%，中 国石化涨0.62%，盐湖股份涨1.7%，中国海油跌0.79%，藏格矿业涨2.78%，巨化股份跌0.25%，恒力石 化跌0.12%，华鲁恒升跌0.25%，宝丰能源涨0.66%。截至2月6日，该指数近一年上涨47.26%。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续10日获 资金净流入，合计超13亿；最新基金规模攀升至16.98亿元。 | 近5日净流入 | | | 单位(万元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 25217 | | | | | | 1402 | 2942 | 4852 1413 | | 2-2 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 2-5 2-6 | | 天数 | | 净流天 | 净流额 净流率 | | 5 | | 5 | 35824 25.94% | | 10 | | 10 | 130943 309.61% | | 20 | | 16 | 146086 588.64% | 消息面上，美国与伊朗之间持续的紧张局势促使投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The green methanol industry in China is expected to experience explosive growth, driven by technological advancements, cost reductions, and expanding application scenarios, with a projected demand of approximately 12 million tons by 2030, accounting for nearly 50% of the global market [1][14]. Industry Overview - Green methanol, produced from renewable energy sources such as green hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and biomass, has a near-zero carbon emission during its production process [1][8]. - As of the end of 2025, China's methanol production capacity is projected to reach 11,756 million tons per year, with green methanol capacity accounting for less than 5% [3]. - The coal chemical industry in China, which primarily produces methanol from coal, faces significant decarbonization pressures due to high carbon emissions [3][17]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Since the introduction of the "dual carbon" strategy in 2021, various policies have been implemented to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, including methanol [4][5]. - The government has set targets for energy efficiency and carbon reduction, aiming for over 30% of the refining and ethylene industry's capacity to meet benchmark levels by 2025 [4]. Technological Developments - The key to advancing green methanol technology lies in reducing production costs, which are currently 2-3 times higher than traditional methanol [16]. - Various production methods for green methanol include electrolysis, biomass gasification, and biomass-coupled green hydrogen processes, each with its advantages and challenges [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The global green methanol market is rapidly developing, with 255 renewable methanol projects identified, and China holds over 50% of the global project reserves [11]. - The shipping industry is increasingly adopting methanol as a mainstream alternative fuel, with significant demand projected for methanol-fueled vessels [11][13]. Future Outlook - China's green methanol projects are expected to enter a concentrated construction phase from 2026 to 2028, with large-scale production anticipated post-2028 [14]. - The demand for green methanol in China is expected to be driven primarily by shipping fuel applications, with projections indicating a growth to approximately 120 million tons by 2050 [14][15].

Group 1 - The polyester industry is experiencing a collaborative production cut that is driving price spread recovery, with the price spread between polyester filament and polyester bottle chips reaching new highs in six months and two years, while PTA is nearing breakeven [1] - The dye industry is witnessing a replenishment wave due to low inventory levels, with disperse dyes expected to rise by another 10% before the holiday, and the price of the brilliant blue dye led by Zhejiang Longsheng has surged to 180,000 yuan/ton, indicating strong price support expectations in the industry [1] - Local two sessions have identified high energy-consuming industries as key targets for carbon emission transformation, with green development policies continuing to strengthen supply-side constraints in the chemical industry [1] Group 2 - The electronic gas industry is characterized by a high degree of foreign monopoly, with four major international giants, including Linde Group and Air Liquide, holding over 70% of the global market share, indicating a deep technological moat [1] - The supply of electronic bulk gases exhibits a 15-year long-cycle binding characteristic, resulting in strong customer stickiness, while the specialty gas sector faces high technical barriers (purity requirements of 5N-6N) and a wide variety of products (over 110 types), leading downstream customers to adopt multi-source supply strategies [1] - The expansion of semiconductor demand is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution process, although significant barriers and technological stratification exist within the industry [1]

Group 1: Dairy Industry Developments - Inner Mongolia's Ben Teng Dairy is utilizing the "Breeding No. 1 Chip" for genetic testing, reducing the evaluation time for dairy cattle from approximately 4 years to 45 days [1] - The "Breeding No. 1 Chip," developed by the National Dairy Technology Innovation Center, signifies China's independent mastery of high-yield, disease-resistant dairy cattle genomic testing technology [1] - China's dairy industry has significantly narrowed the gap with developed countries over the past 20 years, achieving global leadership in scale, standardization, and digitalization of dairy farming [1] Group 2: Meat Processing Innovations - Inner Mongolia's sheep can now be processed into over 170 products through refined processing techniques, enhancing the value of each sheep by approximately 20% [2] - Modernized meat processing facilities in Xilin Gol League are employing advanced techniques to meet diverse culinary needs, showcasing the region's commitment to quality and safety in food production [2] Group 3: Coal and Energy Sector Advancements - The Baofeng Energy project in Ordos is the world's largest coal-to-olefins facility, producing 3 million tons of olefins annually while implementing green hydrogen technology to reduce carbon emissions [3] - Inner Mongolia's industrial output has seen an average annual growth of 7%, with over 80 products, including rare earth compounds and coal-to-olefins, leading in national production [3] - The region's total power generation capacity stands at 310 million kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for 170 million kilowatts, maintaining the highest electricity export volume in the country for 21 consecutive years [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The fertilizer market is entering a traditional demand peak with structural price increases expected due to the spring farming season, which accounts for approximately 45%-50% of annual fertilizer usage [1][7] - The chemical fiber industry is approaching its peak demand season, with low inventory varieties likely to show price elasticity [9][11] Summary by Sections Fertilizer Sector - Urea prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to increased demand from delayed planting and government policies aimed at boosting grain yields [7] - Phosphate fertilizer prices are supported by strong cost factors, with a forecast of continued high prices due to supply constraints and stable demand [8] - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rise as supply remains tight, with a contract price of $348 per ton for 2026, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [8] Chemical Fiber Sector - The "golden March and silver April" period is a traditional peak for the chemical fiber industry, with downstream textile companies expected to increase procurement to meet seasonal demand [9] - Polyester filament production is being managed through coordinated reductions to improve profitability, with current inventory levels at historical lows [11] - Viscose staple fiber is experiencing high operating rates and low inventory, suggesting strong upward price potential [11] Overall Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical sector has seen a significant increase in attention due to a rebound in PPI and capital expenditure trends, with the industry valuation at a historical low [18][19] - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes, including upstream resource assets, supply-side optimization, low valuation leading companies, and new productivity investments [19][20][21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is primarily driven by internal factors, such as proactive cooling measures and a sell-off in broad-based ETFs, while external factors include political actions by Trump, the change in the Federal Reserve chair, geopolitical tensions in Iran, and a decline in global AI stock preferences. Despite these disturbances, the fundamental industry outlook in China remains intact, and the market sentiment has sufficiently released, suggesting a potential continuation of the spring rally after the Spring Festival [1][2][9]. Internal Factors - The proactive cooling measures by regulators have led to a sell-off in broad-based ETFs, resulting in a temporary decline in market risk appetite. Some thematic sectors have experienced speculative bubbles, prompting the China Securities Regulatory Commission to implement "counter-cyclical adjustments" [9][11]. - The adjustment is viewed as phase-specific, with the proactive cooling measures nearing completion and seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions expected to support market recovery [2][11]. External Factors - External disturbances, including Trump's political actions, the new Federal Reserve chair's policy expectations, and geopolitical tensions in Iran, have amplified the adjustment pressure. However, these factors are not expected to have a long-term impact on the A-share market due to its weak correlation with global markets [9][11][13]. - The current external disturbances do not possess the necessary conditions to transmit long-term impacts to the A-share market, as they primarily pertain to financial and political short-term disruptions rather than fundamental changes in supply chains or demand [13][15]. Market Sentiment and Liquidity - Market sentiment has sufficiently cooled, with a significant reduction in trading volume and a drop in the Shanghai Composite Index below its 20-day moving average. This indicates that the previously overheated market sentiment has been effectively resolved [18][20]. - The sell-off in broad-based ETFs has shown signs of easing since January 30, which is expected to improve the independent funding environment of the A-share market [15][18]. Industry Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to focus on include AI computing power, chemicals, electric equipment, and energy storage, with potential investment opportunities arising from upcoming policy signals from local Two Sessions and the national Two Sessions [20][28]. - The AI computing power sector is expected to see significant capital expenditure increases, with major companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft planning substantial investments in AI infrastructure [20][21]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a valuation recovery driven by price increases in various sub-sectors, with leading companies in PET, polyurethane, and other chemical products becoming focal points for investment [24][25]. - The energy storage industry is benefiting from both domestic and international demand, particularly from AI-driven data center projects in North America, highlighting its critical role in power solutions [28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - This week's view: In February and March, there are few maintenance plans. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand slows down, and the situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations continues [6]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 16%. New capacity will be put into production at a low rate in the first half of the year and a high rate in the second half. Only BASF Zhanjiang has new capacity for the 05 contract, but the existing capacity has increased significantly compared to the same period. The overall PE operating rate is 85.9%, up 0.5%. Some plants had short - term shutdowns this week, and supply increased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance plans in February and March are expected to decline month - on - month. The production of standard products has increased, and the ethylene derivative profit for PE is acceptable, so the operating rate is expected to remain high [6]. - Demand: In the second week before the Spring Festival, the overall downstream operating rate declined rapidly. The film factory maintained a relatively high load, while the demand for greenhouse films basically stopped. The packaging film's phased inventory replenishment has ended, and new orders are limited. The demand from the food and daily - use product sectors has passed its peak, and the operating rate of the injection - molding industry is expected to continue to decline. After downstream enterprises stocked up some finished products, due to the raw material prices not meeting expectations, large - scale inventory replenishment is limited, and the raw material inventory remains at a medium - low level. Attention should be paid to post - festival restocking [6]. - View: Polyolefins have adjusted to a neutral valuation. Expectations regarding the Middle East geopolitical situation and the Two Sessions have not yet materialized. The upstream inventory has been well - reduced before the Spring Festival, and the inventory situation of the industry has improved compared to December. Therefore, a significant decline is not expected. The ethylene performance is weak, and the PE profit is acceptable compared to other derivatives. With limited maintenance plans in February and March, the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level, so the PE cost - end valuation is moderately high after the repair. The greenhouse film and packaging film industries are entering a seasonal off - season, and although there is an expectation of improvement for mulch films, the pre - festival demand support may be limited. The supply - side pressure will gradually increase at the end of the year. Therefore, from the perspective of the upstream, inventory control is still active, and there is no obvious price - topping behavior. After the mid - and downstream replenished their inventories, the explicit inventory structure is relatively healthy, with a slightly higher mid - stream inventory. Attention should be paid to whether the inventory can continue to be transferred downstream. Before the Spring Festival, the supply may increase while the demand decreases, but the weak - reality pricing is limited, and the market may fluctuate strongly [6]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait and see with a fluctuating trend. 2) Inter - period: The willingness to hold inventory is lower than before. Due to the seasonal inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, the flexibility of the spot price is limited. With the continuation of strong expectations, conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage when the price is high. 3) Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [6]. Polypropylene Part - This week's view: PDH plants have concentrated maintenance in the first quarter, and the C3 cost side provides strong support [101]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 12.7%, and the annual output increased by 16.7%. The overall capacity is in excess, and the profit has been compressed to a historical low. In the first quarter, due to the continuous low profit of PDH plants, the planned maintenance has increased, and the supply center has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. The weekly operating rate is 73.9%, down 0.8%. Some plants have implemented maintenance, and the operating rate may be difficult to return to a high level, providing marginal support. Recently, PDH plants have made many inquiries about propane for March, and attention should be paid to the resumption time. The domestic demand is weak, and the short - term PP import volume is limited. Fluctuations in freight rates and general overseas demand restrict PP exports. This week, the domestic FOB price increase is greater than that overseas, and the number of signed orders has decreased. The import and export volume is expected to maintain a basic level in the short term [101]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate is differentiated. The terminal提货 rhythm slowed down in the second half of the week, and the finished - product inventory is higher than last year. The demand for plastic weaving has slowed down as the construction and logistics industries gradually enter the holiday. The procurement enthusiasm for BOPP films is good, and they continue to enter the market to purchase annual orders. The order cycle of film factories continues to extend. Although the operating rate has slightly declined this week due to environmental protection and production - line technological transformation. The demand for non - woven fabrics for Spring Festival packaging is increasing, and the operating rate remains stable. Downstream factories such as CPP and daily - use injection - molding are actively reducing their finished - product inventory and shutting down for maintenance. The new round of national subsidy policies and the Spring Festival cleaning have increased the demand for floor cleaners, etc. The demand for home appliances and automobiles is showing an upward trend, especially in the home appliance sector, where sales have increased significantly, which supports the operating rate of the modified PP industry. The injection - molding terminal's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and as workers return home, the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [102]. - View: The raw - material side, including crude oil and propane, shows a strong performance, and the propylene spot is also strong. The profits of oil - based, propane - based, and propylene - based processes are compressed, and the coal - based profit is at a low level. The overall weighted profit is compressed. Some PDH supply elasticity has been realized marginally, and the cost is significantly different from that of PE. The plastic - weaving industry is showing marginal weakness, while downstream industries such as BOPP and modified PP have acceptable demand due to the Spring Festival, and the operating rate is temporarily supported. However, other products are gradually entering the off - season, and the off - season demand cannot resonate, and some speculative demand is suppressed. In terms of supply, the maintenance scale in the first quarter is currently high, and the supply center has declined month - on - month. The overall PP inventory has been reduced. The upstream had good pre - sales, and some low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. However, facing the Spring Festival holiday, the confidence of the mid - and downstream in the future market is average, and the sustainability of procurement is questionable. The first quarter may gradually enter a situation of both supply and demand reduction, and the price may fluctuate [103]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Fluctuate. 2) Inter - period: The PDH maintenance rate is still high, and with both supply and demand decreasing, the inter - period spread may fluctuate. 3) Inter - variety: Short the L - PP spread when it is high [103]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted, and the spot prices in various regions have declined. The basis has remained stable, and the number of warehouse receipts is at a high level. The 5 - 9 month spread has fluctuated around - 50 this week due to the seasonal weakness of the downstream and the slower inventory replenishment than before, while the strong expectations continue [14]. - PE Outer - Market Price: The CIF price in China has increased by $10 - 20. The cold wave in the United States and the Middle East geopolitical situation have boosted the willingness of overseas holders, and the price is strong. The price comparison between Europe, Southeast Asia, and China has been repaired. The HD film performance is weak, while the LD and injection - molding products are strong [16]. - Import Window: The import window has been compressed. Overseas suppliers are raising prices, and the non - standard products are at a neutral level year - on - year. The LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year. The price comparison between the United States and the Middle East has declined. Although the Iranian supply offers are acceptable this week, the domestic market is cautious, and there is an expectation of a slight decline in imports [23]. - Non - Standard Spread: The HD standard - product price comparison has weakened, while the LD price comparison has remained stable. Some plants have switched back to producing standard products, and the production of standard products has increased [26]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil is strong, naphtha has followed the increase, and the ethylene monomer has weakened. The coal price has rebounded and then remained stable [29]. - Production Profit: The oil - based profit has limited repair, the coal - based profit has slightly improved, the ethane - based profit has been compressed due to the cold wave in the United States, and the profit from purchasing ethylene externally has significantly repaired recently [35]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, there was concentrated production of standard products, with the nominal capacity increasing by 19.2% and the effective capacity increasing by 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries. BASF Zhanjiang started trial production at the end of December, and attention should be paid to its production ramp - up progress [40]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate is at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume is relatively high compared to the same period, but it will decline later [42]. - Standard - Product Supply: The LLDPE capacity has been concentratedly put into production, and the production ratio has increased from a low level. The maintenance scale in February has declined month - on - month, and the supply has increased [47]. - Maintenance Plan: The maintenance plans for the first quarter have not been fully announced. The maintenance plans in February and March are lower than the same period last year [50]. - Import: The import volume was high in December. In 2025, the Sino - US trade friction intensified, and the reduction mainly came from the United States. The pressure on the United States to clear inventory has eased, and the cold wave has led to a strong local ethylene market. The Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the import volume may decline month - on - month [56]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The overall downstream demand is accelerating its decline. The agricultural film operating rate is accelerating its decline, and the profit of mulch films is compressed year - on - year. The packaging film operating rate is higher than the same period last year, but the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is limited. The profit of the industry is at a high level, but the number of orders is slightly lower than the same period. The demand for food and tobacco and alcohol during the Spring Festival has been fulfilled, and there may be limited improvement in the future. The construction of northern terminals has declined seasonally, and the pipe - making industry mainly replenishes inventory after the Spring Festival. The raw - material inventory is slightly lower than the same period [71][78][85]. - Inventory: The total supply has continued to increase. The production of standard products has increased with the production ratio. Previously, the mid - stream established positions in the futures and spot markets, and agents placed orders, transferring the inventory to the mid - stream. The standard - product factory inventory has accumulated, the LD and HD factory inventories have been reduced, and the mid - stream inventory reduction has been difficult [64][69]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted. As the inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival is approaching the end, the basis has limited strengthening. The upstream had many pre - sales before, and the selling pressure before the festival is temporarily not large. The mid - stream has established a large amount of inventory, and the number of warehouse receipts remains at a high level. The month spread fluctuates [110]. - PP Outer - Market: The CIF price in China has rebounded. The quotes in north - western Europe have rebounded, and the price comparison in Southeast Asia has strengthened. The import window has been compressed month - on - month, the exchange rate has strengthened, and the profit from exporting to Southeast Asia has limited increase [117]. - Non - Standard Spread: The regional spread of拉丝 has slightly narrowed. In terms of varieties, the spread between拉丝 and low - melt copolymer is the same as the same period last year. This week, the upstream production enterprises'拉丝 production ratio has remained at a relatively low level, and the spread between high - and low - melt products has significantly narrowed [125]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil, naphtha, and propylene are strong. The coal price remains stable [131]. - Production Profit: The overall profit is compressed. The PDH - based valuation remains at a low level, and the coal - based and propylene - based process profits are in the red [138]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, there was a large - scale production of new capacity, with the effective capacity increasing by 12.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries [146]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate has recently declined, and the maintenance volume is higher than the same period [147]. - Supply Details: The production of oil - based and PDH - based products is at a high level. The maintenance in the first quarter has increased significantly compared to December, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. Attention should be paid to the implementation [152]. - Maintenance Plan: The subsequent maintenance scale will decline slightly. The monthly maintenance volume in the first quarter is higher than the same period last year [157]. - Import and Export: The domestic production increase is large, the import volume is at a low level year - on - year, and the export volume has increased significantly. However, part of the export comes from the processing of imported materials by southern plants. Recently, the domestic - to - overseas price comparison is weak, and the overseas demand is general. The export volume will maintain a basic level. The export to Southeast Asia and South Asia has increased significantly [163][165]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The plastic - weaving operating rate is declining and may continue to weaken with the Spring Festival. The packaging operating rate is the same as the same period last year, and the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is better than other products. The industry profit is at a high level, and the order cycle continues to increase. The profit of tape master rolls is compressed, and they are actively reducing their finished - product inventory, but it is still higher than the same period. The number of orders has declined seasonally, which may suppress the elasticity of BOPP, etc. The CPP is actively reducing its finished - product inventory, and the raw - material inventory is at a high level. The demand for PP non - woven fabrics is acceptable, and the raw - material inventory has slightly accumulated. The pipe - making operating rate is declining, and the injection - molding operating rate has increased against the season [179][184][190][193][195]. - Inventory: The supply has declined temporarily. The upstream is actively reducing inventory, and the low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. The oil - based inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and the standard - product explicit factory inventory is at a neutral level [172][174].

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the basic chemical industry's weekly data, covering price and profit changes in multiple sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, coal - chemical, and animal nutrition, and also tracks the stock price performance and profitability of related listed companies [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking**: - **Stock Price Changes**: The basic chemical index decreased by 2.1% in the past week, increased by 9.0% in the past month, 17.6% in the past three months, 48.7% in the past year, and 10.4% since the beginning of 2026. Among the related listed companies, New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. (002001.SZ) had a 6.8% increase in the past week, while other companies such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (600309.SH) and Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. (600989.SH) had varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Profitability**: The report provides the total market value, stock price, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of related listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,500 yuan/ton, 13,900 yuan/ton, and 14,377 yuan/ton respectively. The corresponding weekly changes were - 43 yuan/ton, + 36 yuan/ton, and + 292 yuan/ton, and the gross margins were 4,097 yuan/ton, 1,497 yuan/ton, and 2,345 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: The average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,277 yuan/ton, 4,399 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton, and 4,137 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 139 yuan/ton, + 51 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and + 63 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of polyethylene production through different processes and polypropylene production through different processes also had corresponding changes [2][8]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,119 yuan/ton, 1,758 yuan/ton, 4,004 yuan/ton, and 2,511 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 65 yuan/ton, + 13 yuan/ton, + 41 yuan/ton, and - 69 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross margins also changed [2]. - **Animal Nutrition Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine were 61.4 yuan/kg, 55.9 yuan/kg, 18.2 yuan/kg, and 14.3 yuan/kg respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.1 yuan/kg, + 0.9 yuan/kg, + 0.3 yuan/kg, and + 0.1 yuan/kg [2][9]. 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend**: The report does not elaborate on the basic chemical index trend but focuses on the performance data of the index and related companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Plate**: Analyzes the price trends and price - spread situations of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in China [16][19]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Plate**: Discusses the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane, natural gas, and crude oil, as well as the profitability of different processes for producing polyethylene and polypropylene [23][31][38]. - **Coal - Chemical Plate**: Covers the price and gross margin trends of coal - coking products and traditional coal - chemical products, as well as some new materials [40][45][52]. - **Animal Nutrition Plate**: Analyzes the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [57][59][63].

Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a slight recovery, with the advantage of imported coal narrowing further [7][81] - The overall profitability of the coal mining industry is expected to improve in 2026 after a significant decline in 2025 [7][84] Market Dynamics - The CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 698 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2 RMB/ton [13][82] - The average daily consumption of coal in coastal power plants is 208,000 tons, with a stock availability of 15.4 days [22][28] - The coal inventory at major ports decreased by 5.5% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [22][28] Industry Insights - The coal mining industry saw a profit total of 352 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 42% [7][84] - The expected supply-demand balance in 2026 is anticipated to support coal prices, with a significant reduction in supply growth [7][84] - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to enhance the fulfillment rate due to increased market factors [84][85] Key Companies - Major companies with stable dividends include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [7] - Companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7] - Companies with long-term growth potential include Huayang Co., New Energy Co., and Baofeng Energy [7]