2月24日，丙午马年A股将迎来首个交易日。春节假期期间，全球市场平稳运行，国内消费、文旅、出 行数据持续回暖，叠加政策暖风与资金共振，多家头部券商密集发布研报，一致对马年A股持乐观审 慎、结构性慢牛判断，认为市场将从估值驱动转向盈利驱动，科技成长与内需复苏双轮驱动，春季躁动 行情值得期待。 马年"慢牛"行情有望延续 据Wind数据，近十年春节假期后A股首个交易日，上证指数、创业板指上涨概率均达六成，节后"日历 效应"显著。主流券商对马年A股大势判断高度统一，"长牛""慢牛"成共识，整体走势或呈现平稳开局、 震荡上行、前稳后高的趋势。 东吴证券表示，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有 望迎来积极开局。产业趋势层面，机器人、国产大模型在内的科技主线在假期期间持续发酵。后续来 看，两会临近将进一步强化市场维稳预期，白宫官员确认特朗普拟于3月底访华，有助于稳定市场对外 部环境预期。对于节后A股市场表现持乐观判断。 中信证券判断，A股盈利增速将呈现前低后高走势，上半年以估值修复为主，下半年随经济回暖与政策 落地进入业绩兑现阶段。外部环境趋于稳定，内部政策持续发力，市场风险偏 ...

量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260220） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 中盘股或先开启上行趋势 本报告导读： 从技术面来看，高频资金流模型继续显示各大宽基指数信号依旧为负向，但偏向左 侧布局的情绪模型信号转正。结合春节后的日历效应，我们认为，以中证 500 指数 为首的中盘股或先开启上行趋势。 投资要点： | | | | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 曹君豪(分析师) | | | 021-23185657 | | | caojunhao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040094 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 程 周 报 高频选股因子周报（20260209-20260213） 2026.02.16 低频选股因子周报（2026.02.06-2026.02.13） 2026.02.14 绝对收益产品及策略周报（260202-260206） 2026.02.11 大 ...

第三，产业链：多元化重构。美国加大从越南、墨西哥、爱尔兰、 瑞士以及泰国等地区进口，基本对冲了中国下降的份额；中国对越 南、泰国、俄罗斯、马来西亚、墨西哥、印尼、巴西、阿联酋以及 印度等加大出口，完全对冲了对美出口的下降。具体商品来看，美 国自中国进口的重点产品都面临实际关税的大幅增加，美国自中国 进口依赖度明显下降，中国对美国出口份额也明显下降。美国加大 自北美和东南亚的进口来对冲中国下滑的份额，中国则加大对东南 亚和中东的出口来对冲美国下滑的份额。 风险提示：海外风险上升，数据测算存在偏差。 | | 021-23154149 | | --- | --- | | | lijun8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040063 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | 关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相" [Table_Authors] 李俊(分析师) 关税透视研究一 本报告导读： 自美国总统特朗普在 2025 年初提出新一轮关税政策以来，全球贸易已经遭受关税干 扰一年之久。本文拟从美国进口关税视角，全面分析各国、各产品实际落地的关税 水平，并进一步分析关税 ...

春节出行和消费市场呈温和回升、层次鲜明特征，政策聚焦扩内需优结构，实体、物价、流动性各维度 数据表现分化。春运前19天跨区域人员流动日均2.48亿人次、同比增5.1%，水运成增长亮点，出行市场 进入常态化周期；商品消费依托政策与消费升级实现量价回升，智能产品成亮点，服务消费中旅游表现 亮眼，电影消费受供给质量影响表现平淡。近两周政策围绕扩内需稳增长、优结构强创新双线发力，兼 顾短期与中长期发展。实体端内需待振外需亮眼，生产分化，基建资金充裕但项目短缺问题的仍存，节 前停工早于往年，出口仍有韧性或对经济起到托底作用，生产分化持续；物价上CPI小幅上涨、PPI整体 平稳；流动性保持合理充裕，人民币持续升值。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：李林芷、邵睿思、梁中华 投资要点 风险提示：贸易局势不确定性，国内需求修复不及预期。 1、春节：出行和消费温和改善 2026年春节出行和消费市场呈现出温和回升、层次鲜明的运行特征，商品消费托底、服务消费需求主 导，新质生产力向消费端的落地转化，更成为此次春节消费的亮眼新增长点。 人员流动：长假支撑下需求进一步释放，出行结构多元升级。国内春运已从过去的"单向返乡大迁徙" ...

2024年"924"行情以来，A股市场经历了波澜壮阔的一年半。转眼间，我们已站在2026年的起点。随着上证指数创下近十年新高，市场在欢呼声中也开始出 现分歧：这轮牛市还能涨多久？是"烟花"将尽，还是"慢牛"刚启？ 作为自媒体创作者，我结合近期方正证券、国泰海通、高盛、中信建投等机构的官方核心观点，为你抽丝剥茧，聊聊我对这轮牛市终局的深度思考。 3. 科技的突破：重塑估值体系的引擎如果说资金是血液，那么科技就是心脏。2025年DeepSeek、机器人、集成电路等新技术的出现，打开了市场对未来增 长的预期空间 2026年初的A股，已经不是那个在绝望中重生的少年，而是一位步入壮年的奔跑者。 方正证券在2026年初的研报中明确指出，A股已经进入牛市第三年 这意味着什么？意味着 "闭眼买入都能涨"的阶段可能已经过去。2026年的市场，大概率不会再是单纯的普涨，而是对节奏把握和结构选择的巨大考验。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕将这轮牛市定义为 "转型牛" 。他认为，这轮行情的典型特征是经济结构转型与资本市场改革交相辉映。虽然市场在2025年经 历了大幅波动，但这头"牛"远未结束，2026年甚至有望挑战十年前的高位 要判断牛 ...

Group 1 - The forum discusses the new trends in the REITs market expected by 2026, highlighting the importance of real estate investment [5][6] - There is a focus on the development and business opportunities of digital RMB, indicating a shift in financial transactions and investments [5] - The outlook for interest rates and investment trends for 2026 is presented, emphasizing the need for strategic asset allocation from institutions to individual investors [6] Group 2 - The banking sector's operational outlook for 2026 is analyzed, with insights into financial market business prospects [6] - The forum includes discussions on the high-quality development of the real estate sector during the 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a strategic focus on sustainable growth [6] - The event is organized by Guotai Junan Securities, showcasing their commitment to providing research and analysis in non-bank financial services, banking, and real estate [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar are driven by strong employment data and cooling inflation, with a medium-term outlook indicating downward pressure on the dollar due to falling inflation, geopolitical risks, and a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy [1][4]. Group 1: Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls for January showed a significant increase of 130,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 65,000, with notable recovery in the private sector, particularly in education and healthcare [2]. - The labor force participation rate has risen, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, indicating a robust labor market with ample job supply [2]. - Average hourly earnings and weekly hours both increased, alleviating concerns about a weakening job market [2]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, with a month-on-month rise of only 0.2%, both below expectations [3]. - Core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest since March 2021, influenced significantly by a 1.8% drop in used car prices [3]. - Energy prices continued to decline, with gasoline prices falling by 3.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The strong employment data initially boosted the dollar, but the subsequent inflation data led to a sharp decline in the dollar index by nearly 20 points, with non-US currencies rebounding [3][4]. - Gold prices surged, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of lower real interest rates [3][4]. Group 4: Currency Outlook - The euro is expected to benefit from the dollar's retreat and improving fundamentals, with the European Central Bank signaling positive developments in the service sector and stable employment [4]. - The British pound faces significant political risks, particularly following a political crisis involving Prime Minister Starmer, which may hinder its recovery despite a weaker dollar [5]. - Overall, the dollar is experiencing short-term volatility due to conflicting employment and inflation signals, but medium-term factors suggest a downward trend for the dollar [5].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index increased by over 30% throughout the year, closing with a rise of 0.52% on the last trading day before the Lunar New Year [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index also showed a slight increase of 0.13% on the same day [1] - AI application concepts saw significant gains, with MINIMAX-WP rising by 24% and other companies in the sector, such as Zhiyuan and semiconductor firms, also experiencing notable increases [3] Group 2 - ByteDance announced the launch of the Doubao-Seed-2.0 model, optimized for large-scale production environments, enhancing capabilities in time series and motion perception [3] - Zhiyuan is planning a secondary listing on the STAR Market, with recent updates indicating a change in its IPO advisory firms [3] - Southbound funds have seen continuous net inflows for six weeks, with cross-border ETFs experiencing significant growth, totaling a net inflow of 313.87 billion yuan in February alone [3] Group 3 - GF Securities noted that the recent breakthrough of the Hang Seng Technology Index above the annual line indicates a release of emotional suppression, suggesting potential for market recovery [4] - The firm recommends gradual investments in technology leaders benefiting from the AI industry trend, while also highlighting the importance of monitoring the upcoming lock-up period for shares, which could involve nearly 100 billion yuan [4] - The market may find a temporary bottom if it adjusts to absorb selling pressure before the lock-up expiration [4]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry is intensifying competition in research services during the Spring Festival, with a significant number of phone conferences and strategy meetings being held to capture market share and enhance performance amidst declining research income [1][11][12]. Group 1: Phone Conferences - From February 16 to 23, a total of 292 phone conferences will be held by brokerage research teams, averaging over 32 per day, including 7 on New Year's Eve and 10 on the first day of the New Year [1]. - A total of 176 sell-side roadshow meetings are scheduled, with 108 occurring during the Spring Festival period [3]. - Notably, West Securities will host a series of phone conferences covering various topics, including a special session on AI products and industries on February 16 [5]. Group 2: Spring Strategy Meetings - Seven brokerages have confirmed their Spring Strategy Meetings, with themes reflecting optimism about the capital market, such as "New Growth Opportunities" and "Upgrades and Breakthroughs" [12][14][15]. - The meetings are scheduled to take place in various locations, with a concentration in Shanghai and Shenzhen, indicating a strategic focus on key financial hubs [13]. - The themes of the strategy meetings are generally positive, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming market conditions [14][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition for research market share is intensifying, particularly among mid-sized brokerages, as they seek to enhance their research capabilities and client resources [11]. - The ongoing fee reduction reforms in public funds are impacting brokerage research income, with a reported 33.98% year-on-year decline in commission income for the first half of 2025 [11]. - The industry is expected to see increased concentration as some smaller firms exit the market, while larger firms maintain strategic investments in research services [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various grassroots financial education activities organized by multiple securities firms during the Spring Festival, aiming to enhance investor awareness and participation in financial literacy while addressing the rise of illegal financial activities during this period [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Education Activities - Securities firms have organized community events such as Spring Festival garden parties, where residents engage in games like financial knowledge quizzes and anti-fraud knowledge contests to learn about financial concepts [2][4]. - Activities include interactive elements like writing Spring Festival couplets and financial knowledge spinning wheels, making the learning process enjoyable and culturally relevant [4][5]. - Over a dozen securities firms, including Dongwu Securities and Huabao Securities, have launched similar festive educational activities targeting grassroots communities since late January [4]. Group 2: Innovative Approaches - Some firms, like Kaisheng Securities, have integrated traditional crafts with financial education, creating themed events that promote anti-fraud awareness and rational investment concepts through hands-on activities [5]. - The use of MBTI personality tests in investment profiling has been introduced by firms like Zhongxin Jianshe Securities, allowing investors to receive personalized investment reports based on their preferences and behaviors [7][8]. Group 3: Online and Offline Integration - Firms are leveraging both online and offline channels to maximize the reach and impact of their educational initiatives, ensuring comprehensive coverage of their activities [9]. - Zhongxin Jianshe Securities has developed a mini-program for investment education, enhancing accessibility and engagement through digital platforms [7][9]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the success of these initiatives, there are challenges in making financial education sustainable and effective, particularly in adapting content to meet the diverse needs of different community demographics [10][12]. - Suggestions for improvement include establishing fixed educational service points in community centers and enhancing collaboration among various stakeholders to create a more integrated approach to financial education [12].