Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Shangshui Intelligent Co., Ltd. has applied for IPO on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market, aiming to raise approximately 587.39 million yuan, with a focus on the intelligent equipment industry, particularly in the fields of new energy battery and new material preparation [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company has over ten years of experience in the intelligent equipment industry, developing a comprehensive technical capability system based on "core single machine + intelligent control system + process package" [1] - Main business activities include micro-nano powder processing, precise measurement of powder-liquid, powder-liquid mixing and dispersion, and functional film preparation, with applications across various sectors such as new energy batteries, new materials, chemicals, food, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1] Group 2: Market Position and Products - In the new energy battery electrode manufacturing sector, the company has developed a high-efficiency pulping system that significantly enhances slurry consistency, efficiency, and energy efficiency, achieving a 60% market share in China, ranking first [2] - The company has established partnerships with major players in the new energy battery and vehicle sectors, including BYD, CATL, and Samsung SDI, among others [2] Group 3: New Material Preparation - The company has a systematic layout for micro-nano material processing, including mixing, dispersion, grinding, coating, drying, and film preparation, forming a smart equipment system with delivery capabilities [3] - Products are utilized in various applications, including new energy battery materials, functional films, semiconductor packaging materials, and functional ceramics, serving clients such as BETTERI and Wanhua Chemical [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of approximately 397.7 million yuan, 601 million yuan, 637 million yuan, and 398 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [3] - Net profits for the same periods were approximately 97.72 million yuan, 234 million yuan, 153 million yuan, and 93.71 million yuan [3] - Total assets increased from 1.356 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.049 billion yuan by June 30, 2025, while the equity attributable to the parent company rose from 181.94 million yuan to 665.63 million yuan during the same period [4]

今年以来，海南核心地段地块成为企业争夺焦点，不少"老玩家"开启了持续加仓模式。 12月18日，中国绿发以底价29.49亿元竞得三亚市中心城区控规HP03-08-09-01地块，折合楼面价约1.32万元/平方米。该地块占地约152亩，容积率2.2，限 高60米，北侧临水兼具河景与二线海景资源。 今日（12月18日），海南自贸港正式启动封关运作。 "一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由"的政策制度落地实施，也标志着海南进入全面开放的新阶段。 海南曾因全域限购、5年社保/限售等政策，被业内称为"楼市调控最严省份"。2024年初，海南优化调控政策，如海口将限购区社保要求维持5年不变，非 限购区降至2年，限售年限从5年缩短至2年，同时放宽企业购房等条件。 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）注意到，就在今日和封关前一日（12月17日），中国绿发连续斥资近50亿元拿下三亚中心区约252亩地块， 此前不少能源企业也纷纷南下"扫货"。 从市场情况看，海南整体房价也有所回稳。 海南省统计局数据显示，2025年1—10月，全省新建商品房销售额1279.51亿元，同比增长17.4%；销售面积775.18万平方米，同比增长8.0%；成交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the synthetic rubber industry chain is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The butadiene rubber futures will experience a volatile pattern throughout the year, with a focus on trading opportunities in different phases. In Q1, it is expected to be mainly volatile; in Q2 and Q3, the price center may move up; in Q4, it is expected to face pressure. From Q2 to early Q3, the average NR - BR spread may shrink, and from late Q3 to Q4, it may widen [3]. - The pricing of butadiene rubber in 2026 will still be mainly based on cost (butadiene) and supplemented by supply - demand factors. The butadiene market is expected to be in a pattern of increasing supply and demand with wide - range fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there is no new capacity expansion, and in Q2, supply may tighten due to seasonal maintenance of ethylene plants, which will support the price. In the second half of the year, with the return of ethylene plant maintenance and new capacity expansion, supply may increase, putting pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2026 H2 Synthetic Rubber Trend Review 3.1.1 Q3: Macro - rhythm as the trading mainline under a neutral fundamental pattern - For butadiene, it showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Domestic production remained high due to the return of ethylene plant maintenance, and imports increased from August to September. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand, so the price did not fluctuate significantly [9]. - For butadiene rubber, it also maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Due to the increased substitution demand for natural rubber, the spot price showed strong resilience. The macro - rhythm was the main factor affecting the futures price. In July, it rose with the macro - sentiment; in August, it回调 as the market became more rational; in September, it rose as the market traded the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, with the main contract price reaching over 12,200 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.1.2 Q4: Increasing fundamental contradictions in the synthetic rubber industry chain and a downward price center - For butadiene, supply growth exceeded demand growth in Q4. With high - level operation of global ethylene plants and continuous arrival of ocean - going cargoes, domestic supply increased significantly. Downstream industries were under pressure, and the price dropped by more than 20% [17]. - For butadiene rubber, although it maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand, the lack of further increase in substitution demand for natural rubber led to only valuation support for its price. With high - level inventory of production enterprises, the price decreased in line with butadiene, with a decline of about 20% [18]. 3.2 2026 Butadiene Rubber Pricing Logic Expectation - In 2026, butadiene rubber is expected to continue the pricing logic of being mainly based on cost and supplemented by supply - demand factors, similar to 2025. Before 2024 Q3, it was mainly priced by butadiene cost. From 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q4, due to the weakening of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively stronger Thai glue, the substitution demand for natural rubber supported the price of butadiene rubber, and the trading logic became more diversified [19]. 3.3 Cost End: Butadiene in 2026 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2026, butadiene production capacity is expected to expand from 757.7 million tons in 2025 to 819.7 million tons, with an expansion rate of about 8.2%. There is no new capacity in the first half of the year, and new capacity is mainly concentrated in Q4 [29]. - In 2025, the butadiene operating rate was high in Q1, decreased in Q2 due to maintenance, and rebounded in H2. In 2026, it is expected that the operating rate will be low in the first half of the year due to maintenance and increase in the second half. As a result, domestic production may decrease slightly in the first half and increase in the second half [31][34]. - In 2025, butadiene imports increased significantly compared with 2024, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q3. In 2026, due to domestic capacity expansion and potential supply contraction in Europe and Asia, annual imports may decline slightly, and exports may increase slightly. From February to June 2026, imports may decline month - on - month, increase in Q3, and decline again in Q4 [45][46]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The demand for butadiene from butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in 2026. The design capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 212.2 million tons in 2025 to 231.2 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of about 8.95%. The design capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 171.5 million tons in 2025 to 193.5 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 12.82% [50]. - The demand for butadiene from ABS and SBS also increased in 2025. In 2026, the ABS design capacity is expected to increase from 1020 million tons to 1150 million tons, with a growth rate of about 12.74%. The SBS capacity expansion was mainly in Q4 2025. In 2026, the demand for butadiene from these two sectors is still expected to have an increase [64][65]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis: Butadiene Rubber in 2026 3.4.1 Supply Side - The butadiene rubber industry has high supply elasticity. In 2025, the operating rate and production showed significant fluctuations according to profit. In 2026, it is expected to maintain high - level production and supply elasticity. The production is expected to increase compared with 2025, but the growth rate will decline. Inventory is expected to continue to rise slowly [74][76][77]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for butadiene rubber increased. In 2026, the demand is still expected to increase, but the growth rate will decline. For tire demand, domestic demand is expected to increase but at a slower pace due to policy adjustments. Export demand is expected to grow but the growth rate will decline due to EU's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations. The substitution demand for natural rubber is expected to increase but at a significantly slower rate [85][86][87].

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port marks a new phase of comprehensive openness for Hainan, with significant policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the real estate market and attracting investment [2][3]. Market Conditions - Hainan's real estate market is recovering, with a reported sales revenue of 127.95 billion yuan from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.4%. The sales area reached 7.75 million square meters, up 8.0%, and the average transaction price rose to 16,506 yuan per square meter, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year [3][10]. - The city of Sanya remains a focal point, with its economic circle achieving a sales revenue of 74.25 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year growth of 48.4%, and new home sales prices soaring to 31,467 yuan per square meter, up over 30% [10]. Land Acquisition Trends - Major players in the real estate sector, such as China Green Development, are aggressively acquiring land in Hainan, spending nearly 5 billion yuan in just two days to secure prime locations in Sanya [4][7]. - The land auction market has seen significant activity, with a total transaction amount exceeding 9.5 billion yuan in Sanya from June to September 2025, accounting for over 60% of the city's fiscal revenue for 2024 [7]. Policy Changes - New policies include a shift from stringent purchase restrictions to more flexible regulations, such as reducing the social security requirement for non-restricted areas from five years to two years and shortening the resale period from five years to two years [3][9]. - The introduction of "targeted land bidding" aims to attract quality real estate companies while mitigating risks associated with blind land acquisition [9]. Investment Opportunities - The Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to attract three main groups: manufacturing giants, foreign investors, and tourism-related personnel, indicating a potential increase in demand for both real estate and rental markets [17]. - The "Double 15%" tax incentive policy is designed to optimize financial structures for businesses operating in Hainan, further enhancing the attractiveness of the region for investment [17].

Report Information - Report Title: "Profit Rebalancing under Rhythm Game - Outlook for LPG & Propylene Futures Market in 2026" [1] - Report Date: December 18, 2025 - Analysts: Chen Xinchao (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020238), Zhao Shucen (Contact Person, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F03147780) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The operating logic of the C3 industrial chain is expected to shift from unilateral compression in 2025 to profit repair under range - bound fluctuations in 2026. The propane price center is likely to remain relatively low, providing weak cost - side support for the C3 industrial chain. Meanwhile, with the slowdown of propylene capacity expansion and the continued drive from downstream sectors, the supply - demand outlook for propylene is expected to improve marginally, but attention should be paid to the actual implementation of new plant construction under the low - profit background. The opportunities in the industrial chain mainly lie in periodic repairs rather than a trend reversal [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. 2025 LPG, Propylene Trend Review 3.1.1 2025 LPG Market Review - The LPG market in 2025 can be divided into four stages: In the first quarter, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The spot price of the lowest deliverable product in the domestic market was around 4,800 - 4,900 CNY/ton, and the market fluctuated widely with costs. From April to May, affected by tariff policies, the external market price of crude oil and FEI market prices plummeted, and then rebounded. The domestic market was weak due to high inventory and low demand. From June to September, with the shift of the import trade center to the Middle East, the supply was stable, but the demand was weak, and the market was under pressure. In the fourth quarter, the CP price dropped, PDH profit was briefly repaired, and the chemical demand increased. The supply - demand situation improved, but the long - term supply was still loose [8][9]. 3.1.2 2025 Propylene Market Review - The propylene market in 2025 also had three stages: In the first quarter, new capacity led to an oversupply situation, and the price declined. From June to August, due to the shutdown of main production plants and maintenance of multiple devices, the supply tightened, and the price rebounded, but the sustainability was limited due to weak downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, the downstream profit was compressed, demand weakened, and the price dropped to a five - year low [11][13][14]. 3.2. 2026 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 Supply Side - In 2025, China's LPG imports remained stable, but the import structure changed significantly. After the adjustment of Sino - US tariff policies in April, the import from the Middle East increased, while that from the US decreased. In 2026, the Middle East's LPG supply has an expected increase, with the main increment concentrated in the second half of the year. The US production growth is expected to slow down, but the export capacity will improve [15][18][34]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The growth of PDH capacity will further slow down in 2026, and the profit is expected to be repaired. The average operating rate of PDH is expected to increase, driving an additional propane demand of about 2 million tons. The demand for imported propane from domestic cracking plants is expected to remain weak. The propane demand in Japan and South Korea is expected to remain stable, and the growth rate of India's propane demand is expected to slow down, while Southeast Asia's demand may continue to be supported by the operation of existing cracking plants [41][44][52]. 3.2.3 LPG Summary - The supply - demand pattern of propane in 2026 shows a characteristic of "tight at the beginning and loose later, gradually becoming looser". In the first quarter, the supply is relatively tight, but better than in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the second quarter, the market is in a transition period. In the second half of the year, with the release of new capacity in the Middle East, the supply - demand pattern will become looser [57]. 3.3. 2026 Propylene Operating Logic 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2025, the propylene supply expanded rapidly, and the over - supply situation intensified. In 2026, the growth rate of propylene capacity is expected to slow down to about 9%. The new capacity is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, and most of the new capacity comes from integrated plants. The supply is still expected to be loose, and the focus will shift to the risks of structural and rhythm mismatches [59][67]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for propylene from major downstream sectors increased by 15%. In 2026, the nominal demand growth rate is about 11%, mainly from polypropylene, propylene oxide, and butanol - octanol. However, due to the over - capacity in the downstream and compressed profits, the actual demand may be less than the nominal demand [69][75]. 3.3.3 Propylene Summary - In 2025, the propylene market in Shandong was generally in a state of over - supply, with a brief tightening in the middle of the year. In 2026, the upstream and downstream production schedules of propylene show a structural characteristic of "downstream first, more downstream production throughout the year". Nationally, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the first half of the year, and the overall pattern will remain stable in the second half of the year. In Shandong, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve gradually, with a possible improvement in the second half of the year [87][89]. 3.4. Overall Summary - In 2025, the global propane supply was abundant, and the price decreased. The propylene market was in an over - supply situation, and the C3 industrial chain was under pressure. In 2026, the propane price is expected to stay low, and the supply - demand situation of propylene is expected to improve marginally. The operating logic of the C3 industrial chain is expected to shift from unilateral compression to profit repair under range - bound fluctuations [95][96].

2025 年 12 月 18 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2026 年 PVC 上半年趋势仍有压力，下半年或有减产驱动。因冬季仍是氯碱企业检修淡季，即使存在新增检修， 其规模或有限，对 03 合约之前的期货合约而言，仍然面临高开工、弱需求的格局。博弈大规模减产预期或在 03 合约之后。 此外，PVC 仓单仍处于高位，未来多头接货压力大。整体看，PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变，但考虑烧碱利润也 持续下滑，氯碱综合利润处于历史低位水平，明年或可期待供应端在检修旺季的减产力度。 报告导读： 我们的逻辑：1、PVC 期货跌至历史低位水平，且绝对估值处于低位，部分装置因亏损幅度较大，存在减产预期，因此短期不 宜追空。2、烧碱供需格局明显走弱，利润被持续压缩，产业链"以碱补氯"格局难持续。对企业而言，年内生产目标基本 完成，冬季不检修的情况下，可能需要承受较长时间亏损，2026 年春季和夏季检修力度可能会超过今年同期水平。3、PVC 出 口市场竞争压力增大，出口需求增速或放缓。内需来看，与地产相关的 PVC 下游制品需求 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年12月18日 基差方面： 12月18日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价上涨至4430元/吨，V2605合约期货收盘价在4708元/ 吨，目前基差在-278元/吨，走弱8元/吨，基差处于偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下调50元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.46个百分点至79.43%， PVC开工率继续小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有下降，下游制品订单不佳。 出口方面，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单有所回升，但印度市场价格也在下跌，印度需求有限。上周 社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投 资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。 30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新 增产能上，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近投产。反内卷情绪下，焦煤等大宗商 品 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a high volatility on December 18, with the chemical ETF (516020) initially rising by 1.74% before closing down by 0.37% [1][10] - Key stocks in the lithium battery, fluorochemical, and potassium fertilizer sectors saw significant declines, with companies like Duofluoride, Enjie, and Tianci Materials dropping over 4% [1][10] - The chemical ETF has shown a year-to-date increase of 29.2%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (15.65%) and the CSI 300 Index (15.7%) [1][10] Group 2 - The chemical raw materials market is experiencing a price surge, particularly for MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), with global giants like BASF and Wanhua Chemical announcing price increases of up to €350 per ton [4][13] - In the domestic market, the price of MDI has risen to ¥15,100 per ton, reflecting a ¥100 increase, indicating tight supply conditions [4][13] - The demand for MDI is supported by growth in construction insulation materials, recovery in the home appliance export market, and increased demand from the electric vehicle sector [5][14] Group 3 - The current valuation of the chemical sector is at a historical low, with the chemical ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.4, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [5][14] - Analysts predict that the chemical industry is entering a favorable phase, driven by global supply adjustments and increasing demand from AI and other sectors [6][15] - The industry is transitioning from expansion to high-quality growth, with policies aimed at optimizing supply structures and improving energy efficiency [6][15]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is focusing on profit recovery through demand growth and high-end premium pricing [2] Expansion Plans - The LFP industry has announced significant new capacity plans, exceeding one million tons by the fourth quarter of this year [3] - Major companies are leading the expansion with large-scale projects, such as Wanhu Chemical's 650,000 tons, Bangpu Times' 450,000 tons, and Fulin Precision's 350,000 tons [4][6] - The expansion is characterized by a focus on high-performance products like "high-pressure dense" and "lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP)" [6] Pricing Actions - A collective price increase is being pursued by the industry, with major companies negotiating price adjustments of 2,000 to 3,000 yuan per ton starting from late November 2025 [8] - Hunan Youneng has officially announced a processing fee increase of 3,000 yuan per ton effective January 1, 2026 [8] - The price increase is driven by a surge in downstream orders, with companies like Longpan Technology securing long-term contracts for 157,500 tons of LFP materials over five years [8] Market Demand - The anticipated demand for LFP materials is expected to exceed 1.1 million tons due to projected battery production capacity of over 700 GWh in 2026 [8] - The industry is recovering from prolonged losses, with many companies facing thin or negative profits due to rising raw material costs [9]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the chemical industry in China is expected to see a bottoming out and improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a marginal recovery in industry prosperity anticipated for 2026 [4][5][45] - In 2025, the chemical price index is projected to decline slightly, remaining in a low prosperity phase, but global energy costs have retreated from their highs, leading to positive changes in supply, demand, and inventory [4][15][45] - The report highlights that supply-side investment growth in the chemical industry is slowing, driven by anti-competitive policies and the exit of outdated overseas production capacities, which alleviates supply-side pressure [4][30][37] Group 2 - The report identifies three key investment directions for 2026: sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, leading companies driven by capital expenditure and R&D, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or domestic substitution [5][46][57] - Sub-industries expected to see recovery include titanium dioxide, certain pesticide varieties, chemical fibers, and refrigerants, as traditional demand stabilizes and new industries emerge [5][49][57] - Leading companies are expected to concentrate capital expenditure on capacity expansion and high-value downstream products, with significant capital expenditures noted for companies like China Petroleum and Wanhua Chemical [6][51][52] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the ongoing domestic substitution in high-end chemical new materials, particularly in electronic chemical materials and ceramics, driven by the growth of emerging industries such as AI and biomedical applications [7][54][56] - The demand for electronic chemical materials is anticipated to increase as domestic companies make technological advancements and penetrate supply chains for semiconductor and display panel materials [55] - The ceramic materials market is expected to grow significantly due to new applications in biomedical fields, providing a new growth engine for high-end ceramic materials [56]