证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 联储 7 月降息预期被修正，工业金属价格维 持震荡走势 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（6 月 30 日-7 月 4 日），有色板块本周上涨 1.02%，在全部一级行 业中排名中等。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块上涨 1.00%，工业金属板块上涨 1.46%，小金属板块下跌 0.18%，金属新材料板块上涨 0.41%，贵金属板块上涨 0.96%。工业金属方面，美联储 7 月降息预期被修正，美 元及美债利率短期上行，此外铜铝等工业金属下游开工率进一步下滑，本周工业金 属价格维持震荡走势。贵金属方面，本周随着美国国会两院通过了总统特朗普提出 的大规模减税及支出法案，美国联邦财政赤字率水平有望进一步提升，叠加 7 月 9 日的贸易关税暂停最后期限越来越近，不确定性正在重回机构视野，黄金做多美国 通胀的时间或已临近。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：需求下行风险加剧，铜价 Back 结构价差缩小预计短期冲高动能减弱降。截至 7 月 4 日，伦铜报收 9,852 美元/吨，周环比下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Recommended" [7] Core Views - The coal supply-demand relationship continues to optimize under high-temperature conditions, with port coal prices rising and inventory decreasing [4][72] - The production side shows a tightening trend, with a decrease in capacity utilization in Shanxi and a reduction in transportation volumes [4][72] - The demand side is supported by power plants replenishing inventory in anticipation of increased consumption due to high temperatures [4][72] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port coal prices increased to 623 RMB/ton, up 3 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][72] - Inventory at northern ports decreased by 797,000 tons week-on-week [30] - Daily consumption at coastal power plants rose by 80,000 tons week-on-week [24][72] 2. Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has improved, with capacity utilization rising by 1.04 percentage points [5][41] - Coking coal prices at ports remained stable, with the average price at 1,230 RMB/ton [42] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 586,200 tons week-on-week [47] 3. Coke - Coking enterprises are experiencing a decline in production rates due to rising costs from coking coal prices [50] - The average profit per ton of coke is approximately -46 RMB, indicating a decrease in profitability [54] - Steel mills are replenishing raw material inventories, leading to a reduction in coke inventories [62] 4. Anthracite - Anthracite prices remained stable, with the price at 820 RMB/ton [68] - Demand from non-electric sectors remains weak, with procurement primarily focused on long-term contracts [68] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [8] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and asset quality of leading coal companies, emphasizing their investment value [7][8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The basic metals market is primarily driven by macro pricing, with copper and aluminum experiencing high-level fluctuations. Copper prices initially rose due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts but later fell due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data and uncertainties in the foreign trade environment [1][12] - Aluminum prices increased, supported by positive manufacturing PMI data and optimistic automotive sales, despite a reduction in production of aluminum rods and plates [1][20] - Precious metals saw mixed performance, with gold prices declining slightly while silver prices increased, influenced by geopolitical factors and changing market risk preferences [2][25] Summary by Sections Basic Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices fluctuated at high levels, with a current price of 79,830 CNY/ton. Domestic copper inventory increased slightly, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic [1][12] - Aluminum: Prices rose to 20,555 CNY/ton, driven by improved manufacturing data and rising energy prices. The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum decreased due to reduced production of aluminum rods and plates [1][20] - Precious Metals: Gold averaged 766.71 CNY/gram, down 1.00% from the previous week, while silver averaged 8,738 CNY/kg, up 0.29% [2][25] Small Metals - Tungsten: Prices showed resilience with black tungsten concentrate averaging 173,000 CNY/ton, reflecting limited supply growth [3][55] - Rare Earths: Prices for light rare earths increased, indicating a recovery in the fundamentals of the sector, with expectations for significant improvements in the third quarter [3][3] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will range between 79,500 and 81,000 CNY/ton in the coming week, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between 20,300 and 21,000 CNY/ton [13][21] - For precious metals, gold is projected to trade between 750 and 800 CNY/gram, and silver between 8,200 and 9,200 CNY/kg [26][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

- The report discusses the market performance of various indices, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, which performed well with a rise of 0.58%[6] - The report highlights the performance of sector indices, noting that the banking, comprehensive finance, media, steel, and pharmaceutical industries performed well, with returns of 1.85%, 1.13%, 0.72%, 0.52%, and 0.41%, respectively[7] - The report provides data on market sentiment, including the number of stocks that hit their daily limit up and down, with 41 stocks hitting the limit up and 13 stocks hitting the limit down at the close of trading[12] - The report includes information on the financing and securities lending balance, which stood at 18,591 billion yuan as of July 3, 2025, with a financing balance of 18,464 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 127 billion yuan[16] - The report discusses the premium and discount rates of ETFs, noting that the innovative drug ETF Huatai Bairui had the highest premium at 0.92%, while the Kechuang New Materials ETF Huatai Bairui had the highest discount at 0.74%[20] - The report provides data on block trading, noting that the average daily transaction amount over the past six months was 1.2 billion yuan, with the transaction amount on July 3, 2025, being 1.8 billion yuan and the average discount rate over the past six months being 5.75%[23] - The report discusses the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, noting that the annualized discount rates of the main contracts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures were 3.86%, 5.27%, 15.75%, and 14.40%, respectively, on July 4, 2025[25] - The report provides data on institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger list, noting that the stocks with the highest net inflows from institutional seats were Shenzhou Cells, Xice Testing, Longyang Electronics, Guangsheng Tang, Nanling Technology, Rejing Biology, Desheng Technology, Yihong New Materials, Xuedilong, and Canning Power[27][30][33] - The report includes data on the net inflows and outflows of stocks from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, noting that the stocks with the highest net inflows were Beijing New Pharmaceuticals, Hengbao Shares, Bomin Electronics, Longyang Electronics, Guangsheng Tang, and Shenzhou Cells[34]

Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, with consumption and investment as the main driving forces [8][11][12] - The A-share market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with various sectors showing mixed performance, particularly in consumer electronics, banking, and power industries [9][10][11] - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on growth stocks with reasonable valuations and strong mid-year performance expectations [8][11][12] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,461.15, with a slight increase of 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.17% to 10,534.58 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.19 and 38.11, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][10] International Market Performance - Major international indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45%, respectively, while the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices showed slight increases [4] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic sector saw a record high in new installations in May, with a total of 92.92 GW added, marking a year-on-year growth of 388.03% [15][16] - The report indicates a significant increase in the retail sales of new energy vehicles, which reached 1.071 million units in June, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [5][8] - The report notes that the semiconductor industry continues to grow, with global sales reaching $56.96 billion in April, a 22.7% increase year-on-year [19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as consumer electronics, batteries, and telecommunications for short-term investment opportunities [8][11] - In the photovoltaic industry, attention is drawn to leading companies in polysilicon and solar glass production, as well as advancements in new technologies like perovskite solar cells [15][16] - The report suggests monitoring the gaming and cultural consumption sectors, especially with the upcoming summer box office season [34][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Kefa Investment has conducted research on a listed company, Shenhuo Co., expressing a cautious outlook on the coal market, predicting a potential but limited rebound in the second half of 2025 [1] - Shenhuo Co. believes that the changes in Guinea's mining rights will have minimal impact on bauxite supply, and the company plans to reduce cost volatility risks through joint ventures in alumina production [1] - The company has observed a significant decrease in electrolytic aluminum costs in Yunnan, with electricity prices slightly lower compared to last year [1] Group 2 - Shenhuo Co. is exploring the feasibility of expanding production in the Xinjiang region but currently has no plans for international expansion while closely monitoring global market trends [1] - The company acknowledges the green advantages of recycled aluminum but has no immediate plans for investment in this area [1] - Shenhuo Co. is committed to an integrated coal-electricity-aluminum industry chain, aiming to continuously enhance profitability and maintain a stable dividend distribution policy [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - A historic metal bull market is driven by supply-demand imbalances, policy catalysts, and capital inflows, with the dollar index falling below 100 and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts rising [1] - Copper prices have surged, with London copper exceeding $9,967 and Shanghai copper surpassing ¥80,820, due to a complete supply disruption and soaring demand from infrastructure and electric vehicle sectors [1] - Aluminum profits are robust, with operating rates at 97.65% and a projected supply bottleneck, as demand from solar and electric vehicle industries continues to rise [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The copper market is experiencing a significant supply crunch, with major mining companies reducing output and Chinese smelters preparing for production cuts, while demand from the State Grid and electric vehicle charging infrastructure is booming [1] - The aluminum sector is facing a supply constraint, with limited new capacity expected by 2025, yet demand remains strong, particularly from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors [3] - The small metals sector is witnessing explosive growth driven by policy changes, with tungsten prices soaring due to reduced export quotas and strong demand from military and nuclear fusion applications [5] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have surged by 29% in the first half of the year, with central banks globally increasing their gold reserves, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the gold market [6] - Major gold mining companies are seeing significant inflows, with institutional holdings rising sharply, reflecting increased investor confidence in gold as a safe haven [6] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Key moving averages, such as the 5-day and 20-day, are critical for investment decisions, with specific stocks like Northern Copper and Yun Aluminum being monitored closely for potential buy signals [7] - Investors are advised to remain calm during market fluctuations, as inventory levels for copper and aluminum are lower than in 2016, and policy support is strengthening [7]

Group 1: Coal Market Outlook - Domestic coal production has been increasing, leading to an oversupply situation, exacerbated by weak demand from downstream industries such as electricity, chemicals, and steel [2] - In June, production halts in major coal-producing areas due to safety measures led to a temporary rebound in low-priced coal [2] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing due to tightened supply, while non-coking coal prices remain under pressure [2] - The company expects a limited rebound in coal prices in the second half of 2025, as prices have fallen below the cost line for most coal mines [2] Group 2: Aluminum Industry Insights - Changes in Guinea's mining rights are not expected to significantly impact bauxite supply; the company is considering strategic procurement to mitigate cost fluctuations [3] - The cost of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is decreasing due to improved power supply and falling alumina prices [4][5] - Yunnan's electricity pricing is market-driven, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and policies related to renewable energy [5] Group 3: Company Strategy and Future Plans - The company is monitoring market conditions and power supply in Xinjiang for potential capacity expansion through relocation and mergers [6] - There are currently no plans for overseas investments due to high risks and long payback periods, although the company is watching international market trends [7] - The company sees potential in the recycled aluminum sector but has no immediate plans for investment due to challenges in raw material supply and quality [8] Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a strong tradition of cash dividends, with a payout ratio around 30%, reaching 41.78% for the 2024 fiscal year [11] - Cash flow is sufficient to cover capital expenditures, and the company aims to sustain a stable dividend policy while considering shareholder returns and long-term development needs [11]