[Table_Page] 深度分析|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 大宗农产品之八：若原油价格上涨，如何影响农产品价格？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 产品种植成本传导至价格。氮肥国际主流生产工艺以天然气为核心原 料，与原油价格联动紧密；钾肥价格长期锚定原油价格，磷肥生产所需 的硫酸、磷酸等原料，依赖原油衍生的化工产品。化学农药生产的原料 为苯、甲醇、乙烯等石化中间体，此类中间体均为原油的下游衍生品。 传导规律二：原油替代品涨跌，影响作为原材料的农产品价格。原油 价格影响燃料乙醇价格，从而主要影响美国玉米与巴西甘蔗的工业需 求；原油价格影响生物柴油价格，从而影响油脂商品的工业需求。 2025/26 年度美国用于制乙醇的玉米消费量占总体 40%以上。汽油价 格→乙醇价格→玉米制乙醇需求。巴西燃料乙醇产业以甘蔗制乙醇为 主，原油价格→乙醇价格→巴西甘蔗制乙醇比例→巴西甘蔗制糖比例 →巴西糖供应。原油走强带动石化柴油价格抬升，打开生物柴油盈利与 需求空间，从而影响原料需求与价格（大豆油、棕榈油、废弃油脂）。 传导规律三：原油价格影响天然橡胶的替代品价格。原油价格通过其 ...

农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 地缘冲突升级，大宗农产品涨价预期强化 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20260223-20260301） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，淡季底部价格确认后，悲观预期有望逐步扭转。我 们看好 26 年猪价表现，成本优势领先的企业有望持续实现业绩提升，相关标的：牧原股 份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498，买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)等。（2）后 周期板块，行业结构性成长趋势持续，猪价回暖后养殖产业链利润有望逐步向下游传 导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，买入)、瑞普生物(300119，未评 级)等。（3）种植链，地缘因素扰动背景下，大宗商品涨价已传导至农业。从品种基本 面来看，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好，大种植投资机会凸显，相关 标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评级)、海南橡胶(601118，买 入)、隆平高科(000998，买入)、中粮糖业(600737，买入)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食行 业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌 ...

猪鸡价格冰火两重天，玉米景气继续提升 [Table_Industry] 农业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：猪鸡价格年后冰火两重天。种植：看好种植景气度提升。宠物: 汇率因素影响 短期出口表现，看好国内市场增长。 投资要点： [关注原油价格波动对油脂的影响。 Table_Summary] 投资建议：生猪推荐标的：牧原股份、温氏股份；后周期推荐标的：科前生 物、海大集团。农产品产业链推荐标的：晨光生物、诺普信、国投丰乐，相 关标的：康农种业、苏垦农发、北大荒。宠物推荐标的：乖宝宠物、中宠股 份、瑞普生物、佩 ...

智慧农业以信息和知识为核心要素，通过互联网、物联网、大数据、人工智能和智能装备等现代信息技 术、设备，与农业深度跨界融合，实现农业生产全过程的信息感知、定量决策、智能控制、精准投入、 个性化服务的全新农业生产方式，是农业信息化发展从数字化到网络化再到智能化的高级阶段。智慧农 业主要包括智慧种植、智慧畜牧、智慧渔业、智能农机、智慧园区等。 内容概况：在农业信息化和农业现代化的发展进程中，随着全球卫星定位系统、无人智能设备等前沿科 技在农业生产经营全过程领域的广泛应用，智慧农业是对推进农业信息化、现代化进程具有重要意义的 高级农业发展阶段。智慧农业通过应用先进信息技术、推进生产领域的智能化、优化农业生产方式，不 断提高农业现代化水平，进而提高农业生产力及资源利用效率，为乡村全面振兴注入创新动能和高质量 发展引擎。近年来，随着物联网、大数据、人工智能等技术的不断发展，以及政策的持续支持，中国智 慧农业市场规模保持快速增长的态势。数据显示，中国智慧农业行业市场规模从2017年的384.74亿元增 长至2025年的1200亿元，年复合增长率为15.28%。智慧农业是乡村振兴的重要支撑，也是农业现代化 的必然趋势。未来， ...

Group 1: Key Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by the demand for high-speed optical chips due to the ongoing upgrades in overseas computing power, catalyzed by events like the NVIDIA GTC conference [4] - The report emphasizes the transition of the defense industry towards intelligent and information-based munitions, with the company being a key player in the production of solid rocket engines, which positions it well for future growth [4] - The real estate sector is currently in an adjustment phase, with expectations of increased industry concentration and a shift from scale to quality, benefiting leading companies like the one analyzed [5] - The automotive sector is seeing advancements in intelligent driving solutions, with the company positioned as a core supplier for L3 autonomous driving technology, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5] - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply of refrigerants, with the company expected to benefit significantly from this trend, as well as from its leadership in fluoropolymer materials [6] - The agricultural sector is projected to see stable growth despite recent price declines, with the company actively increasing its arable land and benefiting from rising grain prices [7] - The logistics sector is expanding its capacity through new shipbuilding initiatives, with a strong dividend policy and low valuation enhancing its attractiveness [8] - The machinery sector is recovering, with significant growth in excavator sales, positioning the company to capitalize on the industry's resurgence [8] - The hotel industry is entering a phase of accelerated expansion, with a focus on quality and quantity in new openings, indicating a positive outlook for the company [9]

农林牧渔 农业周报 20260208-20260214：猪价快速调整，粮价稳步上涨 2026 年 02 月 23 日 行业周报 看好/维持 农林牧渔 走势比较 (10%) (2%) 6% 14% 22% 30% 25/2/24 25/5/5 25/7/14 25/9/22 25/12/1 26/2/9 子行业评级 | 种植业 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 畜牧业 | 无评级 | | 林业 | 无评级 | | 渔业 | 无评级 | | 农 产 品 加 工 | 无评级 | | Ⅱ | | 推荐公司及评级 | 中宠股份 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 买入 | | 苏垦农发 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<登海业绩预告点评：降本+转基因 驱动，业绩拐点基本确立>>--2026- 02-11 <<天康业绩预告点评：全产业链韧性 支撑底部企稳，并购驱动扩张>>-- 2026-02-10 <<农业周报 20260201-20260207：一 号文发布，重视农业投资机会>>-- 2026-02-10 证券分析师：程晓东 电话：010-88321761 E-MAIL：chengx ...

国泰海通发布研报称，2026年1月，淘天宠物与炼丹炉大数据联合发布《宠物行业新品趋势报告》显 示，时令节日仪式感消费已成为"它经济"的核心增长极，"新年宠物礼盒"这一搜索关键词在天猫平台上 的同比增速便已经达到了20%+。根据天猫数据，宠物过年衣服销量实现330%的大幅增长，宠物年夜饭 实现290%的增长。此外，春节后，华南与华北区域举办规模领先的宠物展会，国内头部品牌预计在展 会上推出新品，值得关注。 养殖：春节后预期猪价进入淡季节奏 春节后预期猪价进入淡季节奏。春节后预计需求淡而供给多，预期价格进入淡季节奏。事实上腊月小年 后，春节备货已经开始逐步下降，接下来节后的屠宰场正月初七和初八正式开工后，价格将进入低价和 养殖亏损阶段。关注低猪价下的产能去化情况。 标的方面 生猪推荐标的：牧原股份(002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)；后周期推荐标的：科前生物 (688526.SH)、海大集团(002311.SZ)。农产品产业链推荐标的：晨光生物(300138.SZ)、诺普信 (002215.SZ)、荃银高科（维权）(300087.SZ)、国投丰乐(000713.SZ)，相关标的：康农种业 (30 ...

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the agriculture industry is "Positive" [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural investment opportunities following the release of the central government's No. 1 document, which highlights the need for comprehensive capacity regulation in the pig farming industry [5][19]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the livestock and planting sectors, particularly focusing on companies with low valuations and strong growth potential [6][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - **Pig Farming**: The average price for pigs is 12.14 CNY/kg, a slight decrease of 0.16 CNY from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 29.24 CNY/kg, which increased by 0.62 CNY [5][19]. The industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in production capacity, with the number of breeding sows decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year [6][20]. - **Chicken Farming**: The average price for broiler chickens is 14 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.3 CNY increase. However, the industry is facing challenges with profitability, as the average loss per chicken is 0.26 CNY [21][22]. The report suggests that chicken prices may remain volatile in the medium term due to high production levels [21][22]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Muyuan Foods, and Suqian Agricultural Development are rated as "Buy" due to their strong market positions and growth potential [3][10]. Planting Industry - **Seed Industry**: The No. 1 document promotes the industrialization of biotechnology in agriculture, which is expected to enhance the seed supply chain and improve the market environment for genetically modified crops [11][23]. The report gives a positive rating for the seed industry, highlighting the long-term investment value of leading companies [11][23]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent trends indicate that grain prices are likely to continue rising due to increased demand and reduced supply. The average price for corn is 2394 CNY/ton, and for wheat, it is 2531 CNY/ton, both showing slight increases [12][24]. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the planting sector, particularly in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development [12][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Synchronize with the market" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization and the strategic goal of building a strong agricultural nation, as outlined in the Central No. 1 Document [6][7] - It highlights the need for increased grain production capacity and quality improvement to ensure food security, with a focus on major crops like soybeans and oilseeds [6][7] - The report suggests that agricultural technology innovation is crucial for achieving modernization, advocating for the integration of AI and advanced agricultural machinery [7] - Land system reforms are moving from pilot programs to comprehensive implementation, which is expected to activate rural resources and support rural revitalization [7] - The report recommends investors pay attention to food security, land scale, and agricultural modernization-related industry chains, particularly in seed companies and livestock breeding [7] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report maintains the investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the agricultural sector, suggesting a focus on food security and agricultural modernization [6][7] Agricultural Technology - Emphasis on the need for agricultural technology innovation, including the application of AI and advanced machinery to enhance productivity [7] Land System Reform - The transition from pilot land reforms to comprehensive implementation is expected to enhance rural resource utilization and support rural development [7] Livestock and Crop Production - The report discusses the importance of regulating pig production capacity and supporting the dairy and beef industries to ensure a balanced supply and demand [7]

据央视新闻报道，2月3日，2026年中央一号文件发布。这是党的十八大以来，第14个指导"三农"工作的 中央一号文件。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 文件全文共六个部分，包括：提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益、实施常态化精准帮扶、积极促进农民 稳定增收、因地制宜推进宜居宜业和美乡村建设、强化体制机制创新、加强党对"三农"工作的全面领 导。 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 苏垦农发：截至2025年夏播，公司自主经营耕地面积约135.8万亩，较上年同期增加了4.2万亩。 托普云农：公司在物联网技术应用方面，部署了大量智能硬件设备，构建起完备的农业物联网体系。 今年中央一号文件提出，实施常态化精准帮扶，报道称，这是中央一号文件首次对这一重大举措进行系 统性部署，对健全常态化帮扶政策体系、提高监测帮扶精准性时效性、提升产业和就业帮扶实效、分层 分类帮扶欠发达地区等进行了具体部署。 行业方面，据太平洋证券数据，上周末，全国小麦收购均价2529元/吨，较上上周涨4元，此前一周则上 涨14元。中期来看，国际粮价上涨预期较强，一方面是因为美元处于降息通道中，全球流动性较为宽 ...