交银国际研究 每日晨报 2026 年 3 月 3 日 今日焦点 | 汽车行业 | | --- | | 2 月车市表现偏淡，关注新能源"全球化与智 | | 能化"机遇 | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com 蔚来汽车：2 月交付新车 20,797 台，同/环比+57.6%/-23.5%，其中全新 ES8 当月交付 15,159 台，同比增长 65.80%。 小鹏汽车：2 月交付新车 15,256 台，同/环比-49.9%/-23.8%。第二代 VLA 也计划于 3 月内正式开启推送。 零跑汽车：2 月交付新车 28,067 台，同/环比 +11.0%/-12.5%。 理想汽车：2 月交付新车 26,421 台，同/环比+0.6%/-4.5%。 小米汽车： 2 月交付量超过 20,000 台，同比基本持平，环比下滑约 48.7%。 伴随各地新一轮促消费政策的密集兑现，3 月车市景气度有望企稳回 暖。2026 年我们建议重点把握两条主线：车企在海外商业化落地的兑现 进度，以及其在底层智能化体系构建上的护城河。个股方面，建议关 注：小鹏汽车（9868 HK/XPEV US/买入）全新 P7/增程 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.82% during the week of February 23-27, 2026, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.41%[10] - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market increased by 26.14% to HKD 186.2 billion during the same period[24] - The PE ratio of the Hang Seng Index as of February 27, 2026, was 11.38X, down by 0.82% from the previous week[16] Group 2: AI Market Insights - In February 2026, the AI model invocation volume in China surged by 127%, surpassing that of the United States for the first time[7] - Four Chinese models accounted for 85.7% of the top five models in invocation volume, indicating strong domestic performance[7] - The AI hardware infrastructure is expected to maintain high demand in 2026, benefiting companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor[7] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong data, resource, and application advantages in AI, such as Tencent and Alibaba, are recommended for investment[7] - Focus on AI ecosystem companies like Kuaishou and MINIMAX, which have model or application capabilities[7] - The autonomous driving sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with companies like XPeng Motors and NIO recommended[7] Group 4: Risks - Geopolitical risks may impact overseas revenues and competitiveness, posing a threat to stock prices[32] - Regulatory risks in the internet sector could affect industry performance and individual stocks[32] - Consumer recovery may not meet expectations, which could influence stock performance negatively[32]

上声电子（688533.SH）系列点评九 2025Q4 收入增长 深化纯数字音频技术链布局 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,776 | 3,023 | 3,552 | 4,128 | | 增长率（%） | 19.3 | 8.9 | 17.5 | 16.2 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 235 | 184 | 238 | 322 | | 增长率（%） | 47.9 | -21.6 | 29.0 | 35.5 | | 每股收益（元） | 1.43 | 1.12 | 1.44 | 1.95 | | PE | 24 | 30 | 24 | 17 | | PB | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 27 日收盘价） 相对走势 -30% -10% 10% 30% 2025/3 2025/8 ...

汽车 分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 longyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 政策托底稳增长，智驾政策加速落地 ——汽车行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 汽车相对沪深 300 指数表现 -15% -10% -4% 1% 6% 11% 17% 22% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券，聚源 相关报告 第1页 / 共23页 《汽车行业月报：乘商协同引领行业向上， 2025 年汽车产销续写新高》 2026-01-20 《汽车行业月报：L3 级自动驾驶准入落地， 商业化加速》 2025-12-23 《汽车行业年度策略：破局内卷提质转型，智 联系人：李智 电话： 0371-65585629 投资要点： 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 25 日 能网联领航升级》 2025-11-25 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10 号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 ⚫ 市场回顾：截 ...

Company News - Arcellx shares surged over 78% in pre-market trading as Gilead Sciences announced plans to acquire Arcellx at a price of $115 per share [1] - Novo Nordisk shares fell nearly 14% in pre-market trading due to clinical trial results showing that its product CagriSema was less effective than Eli Lilly's Zepbound [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [3] Core Views - The company focuses on customized automotive system connectors, primarily producing special fasteners and seat locks, which are widely used in various automotive systems [8][13] - The company has established strong partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and parts suppliers, positioning itself as a key supplier in the automotive fastener and seat lock market [13][14] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings into the new energy vehicle sector and automotive smart electronics, leveraging its R&D and production capabilities [14][15] - Continuous technological development and new product launches are expected to drive long-term business growth [15][16] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at 784 million, 908 million, and 1,054 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.0%, 15.9%, and 16.1% respectively [19] - The projected net profits for the same period are expected to be 111 million, 124 million, and 139 million yuan, with growth rates of 3.6%, 11.8%, and 12.2% respectively [19] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.26, 0.29, and 0.33 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [19] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 30% for the forecast period [19][20] Business Highlights - The company has a strong customer base, being a first-tier supplier to major automotive manufacturers such as Volkswagen China and GAC Honda [14][13] - The company has a market share of approximately 7.45% in the national passenger car seat lock market as of 2023 [14] - The company’s precision components business has seen rapid growth, with a significant increase in the shipment of aluminum precision connectors [15] - The company is expanding its product lines to include electric locks and other innovative solutions for the automotive industry [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive sector [3] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to stabilize and recover due to the introduction of local subsidies for vehicle replacement and the upcoming launch of new models after the Spring Festival [2][12] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in various segments, including passenger vehicles, automotive parts, and motorcycles, with specific company recommendations [2][19][34] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicles - The introduction of the 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand, with subsidies based on vehicle price [14][15] - January sales data shows mixed results, with BYD's sales down 30% year-on-year, while Geely's sales increased by 1% [13][18] - Recommended companies include Geely, Xpeng, and BYD, with a focus on the left side of the demand bottom [2][19] 2. Automotive Parts - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the automotive parts sector, particularly in smart driving and new energy vehicles [19][23] - Recommended companies include Bertel, Horizon Robotics, and Top Group, focusing on the H and T chains [2][19] 3. Motorcycles - The motorcycle market is experiencing growth, particularly in the mid-to-large displacement segment, with recommendations for Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General [31][34] - Sales data indicates a strong performance in the 500cc+ category, with a significant year-on-year increase [32] 4. Commercial Vehicles - The heavy truck market is expected to recover due to the continuation of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy, with recommendations for Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck [35][36] - The report notes a 26% year-on-year increase in heavy truck sales for 2025 [35] 5. Tires - The tire industry is projected to benefit from ongoing globalization and demand, with recommendations for Sailun Tire and Senqilin [37][39] - The report highlights a high operating rate for PCR tires and a gradual recovery in TBR demand [39]

Global Macro - The nomination of Kevin Warsh reflects a rebalancing of monetary policy under the constraints of the Trump 2.0 policy framework, aiming to enhance the alignment of monetary policy with growth and financing cost objectives [2] - Warsh's selection is seen as an optimal compromise, meeting Trump's criteria of being communicative, favoring low interest rates, and avoiding an immediate "independence crisis" narrative [2] - The significance of Warsh's nomination lies not in an immediate change in interest rates but in altering market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's "toolbox weight" and "intervention boundaries," potentially triggering repricing of term premiums and volatility [2] Asset Implications - The interest rate curve is likely to steepen, with the Federal Reserve expected to tolerate higher long-term rates and risk asset volatility, leading to a scenario where short-term rates decrease while long-term rates remain stable or even rise [3] - The dollar may strengthen in the medium term, provided the narrative of independence is not compromised, despite potential interest rate cuts [3] - A systemic elevation in volatility is anticipated as the Federal Reserve gradually withdraws from micro-management, allowing asset prices to be determined more by fundamentals rather than liquidity illusions [3] Company Focus: NIO Inc. - NIO reported a positive earnings surprise for Q4 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach between 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan, marking the first quarter of positive operating profit for the company [6] - This turning point is attributed to increased deliveries, a higher proportion of premium products, and cost reduction efforts, validating the operational leverage of its business model [6] - Looking ahead to 2026, while the first half may experience fluctuations in profit due to seasonal and cost pressures, the launch of new large SUV models in the second half is expected to boost gross margins, making the new vehicle cycle a key catalyst for valuation reassessment [6]

Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market this week, with a gain of +0.66% from February 2 to February 8, ranking 11th among Shenwan sub-industries, while the CSI 300 index declined by -0.61% [2] - Within the sub-sectors, commercial passenger vehicles, passenger cars, automotive parts, automotive services, motorcycles, and others increased by 4.33%, 1.11%, 0.53%, 0.39%, and 0.01% respectively, while commercial freight vehicles decreased by -0.58% [2] Investment Recommendations - The core investment focus for the month includes companies such as Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Bertel, Top Group, New Spring Co., and Chuanfeng Power [3] - For passenger vehicles, the recommendation is to pay attention to the bottom opportunities in demand, particularly for Geely, Xpeng, and BYD, with a suggestion to also consider Jianghuai Automobile [6][21] - In the automotive parts sector, recommendations include intelligent driving companies like Bertel, Horizon Robotics, and Kobot, as well as new force industry chains such as H chain (Xingyu Co., Huguang Co.) and T chain (Top Group, New Spring Co., Shuanghuan Transmission) [6][24] Industry Trends - Li Auto plans to enter the humanoid robot sector, aiming to strengthen its embodied intelligence brand positioning, with a focus on Tesla's production progress and technological iterations as a core theme [4][13] - The automotive sales are expected to stabilize and rebound due to the gradual implementation of the 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy policy and the launch of new models after the Spring Festival [5][14] - The January sales figures showed weak terminal demand, with BYD selling 210,000 units (down 30% year-on-year), Geely selling 270,000 units (up 1% year-on-year), and five new forces collectively selling 130,000 units (up 18% year-on-year) [5][14] Policy Impact - The 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy policy will provide incentives based on vehicle price, with new energy vehicles receiving 12% of the vehicle price (up to 20,000 yuan) and fuel vehicles receiving 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) [16] - The policy aims to stimulate demand and improve the structure of subsidized models, with a focus on activating mid-to-high-end replacement demand [20][21] Robotics Sector - The entry of leading companies into the humanoid robot market is expected to accelerate, with significant developments anticipated in 2026, including the mass production of Tesla's Optimus V3 [25][26] - The focus on key hardware components such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials is expected to drive innovation and market growth in the robotics sector [26][27] Motorcycle Market - The motorcycle market is experiencing growth, particularly in the mid-to-large displacement segment, with leading companies like Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General expected to benefit from increasing demand [36] - The sales data for December showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8% for motorcycles over 250cc, with a total of 69,000 units sold [32][33] Commercial Vehicle Market - The heavy truck market is projected to recover due to the continuation of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy, with sales in December reaching approximately 95,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13% [37][39] - The subsidy policy is expected to stimulate demand for low-emission vehicles, with an average subsidy of 80,000 yuan for scrapping and updating eligible trucks [37][38]

2026年2月6日，港股收盘时，一组数字让不少投资者心里一凉。 恒生指数跌了1.21%，恒生科技指数跌了1.11%。 阿里跌了近3%，腾讯、百度跌了近 2%，京东也跌超1%。 一片绿油油的行情里，新能源车却涨得红火，蔚来涨了近7%。 时间往回倒几天，情况更刺激。 2月3日，腾讯的股价在盘中一度暴跌超过6%，眼看着三千多亿港元的市值就蒸发了。 引发这场震荡的，不是什么惊天动 地的官方政策，而是两则在网络上流传、内容经不起推敲的"小作文"。 一篇说，平台型互联网企业可能不再享受高新技术企业的15%优惠税率。 另一篇更夸张，说游戏行业的税率要向白酒行业看齐，可能从现在的6%左右猛 增到32%。 就是这些没头没尾的消息，叠加了全球市场的不安情绪，瞬间点燃了抛售的导火索。 为什么几句漏洞明显的传言，能有如此巨大的威力？ 答案可能不在于传言本身，而在于市场早已脆弱不堪的神经。 当大家都紧绷着的时候，一点风吹草 动，就足以引发一场雪崩。 我们来看看2月6日当天具体的市场表现。 阿里巴巴港股收盘下跌2.88%，股价报68.45港元。 百度集团港股下跌2.20%，股价收在98.70港元。 腾讯控股报 547.50港元，下跌1. ...