2025年11月19日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS持续下行，压制盘面持续下探，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月17日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1357.67点, 较上期下跌9.8% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点, 较上期下跌6.9% 11月14日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1451.38点,较上期下跌43.72点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU,较上期上涨7.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1823USD/FEU,较上期上下跌17.59% 11月14日 | 短期策略：主力合约回撤，远月合约较强，风险偏好者已建议 | | --- | | EC2602合约1550-1600区间轻仓试多,可考虑不分止盈,关注现货 | | 走势,不建议扛单,设置好止损。 | | 套利策略:国际局势动荡背景下,各合约仍保持季节性逻辑,波动 | | 较大,建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 长期策略:各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The 02 contract opened higher and trended upward, with the overall market showing a strong oscillation, which is in line with the daily report's expectation. It is advisable to consider partial profit - taking and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4] - After the early settlement of the 2602 contract and the upward movement of SCFI, the long - position sentiment was boosted, and the main contract rose significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3] - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the European route was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the US West route was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the European route was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the US West route was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In October, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a predicted value of - 8.5 [3] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4] - In October, the US S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [4] Contract Information - On November 17, the main contract 2602 closed at 1726.0, with a 6.73% increase, a trading volume of 24,450 lots, and an open interest of 38,900 lots, an increase of 837 lots from the previous day [4] - The 2508 - 2606 contracts' daily limit was adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts was 100 lots [5] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, focus on spot trends, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt due to large fluctuations in each contract [5] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]

宏观产业利好共振，铜价冲高震荡 11月铜月报 2025-11-7 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 p 10月铜价大幅上涨，月涨幅4.69%，截至10月31日沪铜收盘价为87010元/吨。中美元首会谈叠加贸易磋商达成协议给市场带来信心，中美关税风险减弱， 国内十五五规划建议提振市场情绪。俄乌冲突停火预期，叠加美联储降息提振有色金属价格，宏观利好整体释放。基本面上，铜矿紧缺扰动下支撑中长期铜 价，国内电解铜产出继续下滑。10月冶炼厂检修叠加阳极铜较难采购影响下国内电解铜产量环比继续下滑，有色协会产能天花板倡议下铜供应有减弱预期。 国内消费因高铜价受到抑制，下游需求整体偏弱，但长期新能源、电力及AI算力需求支撑仍存。宏观利好释放叠加基本面支撑较强，铜价整体偏强运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25-09-25 25-09-19 25-09-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak. In the medium and long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 86,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the domestic social aluminum ingot inventory increases, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises declines. The price may fluctuate between 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and there is a risk of a pullback [3]. Alumina - The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery progress of Guinea bauxite, the actual impact of domestic environmental protection policies on production, and the inventory depletion rhythm [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Supported by cost and a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of concerns about LME zinc squeezing and a warm macro - environment, zinc prices show a short - term strong oscillation, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. It may maintain a range - bound oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The follow - up should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The macro situation is stable, and the market sentiment is weak. The fundamentals are generally flat, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are gradually weakening, the supply - side pressure remains, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. With strong demand expectations, the price decline space is limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 0 yuan/ton [3]. Alumina - The average price of alumina in Shandong is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium is - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 285,400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; SMM 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,600 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference is 340 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Copper - In October, the electrolytic copper output was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In October, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7421 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month; in September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 29,000 tons, up 13.07% month - on - month [3]. Alumina - In October, the alumina output was 1.82 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - In October, the refined zinc output was 617,200 tons, up 2.85% month - on - month; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 22,700 tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [9]. Tin - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - The Chinese refined nickel output was 35,900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 38,164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In October, the lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 126,961 tons, up 8.70% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The improvement in Sino-US tariff situation meets the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and partial profit-taking can be considered. Attention should be paid to the freight rates in November [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3]. - Although the mutual reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the market to some extent, the freight rates in November may not reach the previously announced increase, suppressing the upward movement of the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the market is generally in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% [2]. - On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, up 12.60% from the previous period; for the European route was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US West route was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94% [2]. - On October 31, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, up 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US West route was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. Economic Data - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing sentiment [3]. - In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9, expected to be 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the preliminary value of the Service PMI was 51.2, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7, expected to be 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Service PMI in October was 55.2, expected to be 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2, expected to be 52, and the previous value was 52; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8, expected to be 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3]. Futures Market - On October 31, the main contract 2512 closed at 1804.0, with a decline of 2.54%, a trading volume of 59,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 1251 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - lovers who were advised to build positions below 1500 in the EC2512 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it has been recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Tariff Policy - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to continue to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have reached a new high in 2023 due to a combination of supply disruptions and monetary easing, with a shift from a balanced supply-demand scenario to a shortage [1][4] Supply Factors - Major copper mines such as Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, and Grasberg have faced partial or complete shutdowns since 2025, leading to a global copper supply shortage [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees (TC) have dropped to a historical low of -42.6 USD/dry ton, indicating fierce competition for copper resources among smelters [1] - Despite the decline in TC, large smelters maintain cash flow due to good returns from by-products like sulfuric acid, but potential price drops in these by-products could lead to cash flow losses and temporary production cuts [1] Demand Factors - Global refined copper consumption from January to August 2025 reached 18.83 million tons, a 5.9% year-on-year increase, with China accounting for 10.62 million tons, up 11.05% [2] - The recent rise in copper prices to over 80,000 CNY/ton has had a mild suppressive effect on downstream demand, contrasting with previous price surges where demand feedback was more negative [2] - The market's perception of acceptable copper prices is gradually increasing as supply tightens [2] Macroeconomic Influences - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key macro driver supporting copper prices, with two potential cuts anticipated by the end of the year [3] - Recent U.S. CPI data indicates manageable inflation, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate cuts [3] - The COMEX copper market is experiencing a premium over LME copper, attracting copper inflows into the U.S. and tightening supply in non-U.S. regions [3] Overall Market Outlook - A robust fundamental backdrop and expectations of monetary easing support upward trends in copper prices, with supply shortages unlikely to reverse in the short term [4] - Strong demand from sectors like electricity and renewable energy provides marginal growth [4] - The market needs to monitor macroeconomic factors such as tariff policies and overseas interest rate changes, as these could significantly impact copper prices in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, rapid price increases may suppress demand. The main focus is on the 84,000 - 85,000 support level [2]. - Aluminum: The macro environment is generally positive, and the fundamental situation is stable, jointly supporting the aluminum price. It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong sideways movement in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [4]. - Aluminum Oxide: It is expected that the short - term alumina price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, but the downward space is gradually narrowing [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support and supply - demand balance push the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict it. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong sideways movement, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [5]. - Zinc: The zinc price has short - term support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain a sideways movement, and upward breakthrough requires significant improvement in demand and continuous improvement in non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [10]. - Tin: Supported by strong fundamentals, the tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. The short - term price range is 275,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Future performance depends on macro changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [12]. - Nickel: The macro outlook is optimistic, which may boost the price, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless Steel: The macro outlook is average, the peak - season demand boost is insufficient, and the arrival of goods at steel mills may increase next week. The fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are clearly improving. The strong demand in the peak season is gradually being realized, and the industry is continuously destocking. The price has support at the bottom. The short - term disk is expected to move strongly, with the main reference range of 76,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.83% to 3,798 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%; imports were 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The import loss was - 2,941 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16% [4]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,815 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss was - 5,427 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%; imports were 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [10]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 281,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.68%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.61%. The import loss was - 1,236 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; imports were 17,010 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 13,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 1.23% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 75,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 1060 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.37%; demand was 116,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.28% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy support has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have reached new phased highs, but the style rotation is fast, with the technology and dividend sectors taking turns. Amid the intertwining of Sino - US tariff issues and domestic policy expectations, the equity market is highly volatile, but its downside risk is generally controllable. The convertible bond market is trending optimistically. In the short term, the impetus for the convertible bond market comes from the liability side, with the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and the potential increased demand from the upcoming stock - bond constant ETFs. After a period of retracement and consolidation, a new round of market upswing is expected to start. [3][5] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Outlook - Policy support has strongly influenced the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have hit new phased highs. The equity market is highly volatile due to Sino - US tariff and domestic policy expectations, but its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is optimistic, and its short - term momentum comes from the liability side, such as the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and potential demand from stock - bond constant ETFs. [3][5] 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - During the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, risk appetite was resilient, and the 100 - yuan valuation rose to around 36%. High - rated large - cap convertible bonds showed stronger valuation performance. The overall market's 100 - yuan premium rate was 35.7%, up 0.6% from the previous week, and its percentile since 2017 was 93.9%. High - rated convertible bonds had a larger increase in valuation than low - rated ones. - The conversion premium rate and the bottom - line premium rate increased across most parity ranges. The low - parity range below 80 yuan and the 110 - 120 yuan parity range showed relatively strong valuation performance, while the high - parity range above 140 yuan saw a slight decline. - The median price of convertible bonds was 131.80 yuan, up 2.07 yuan from the previous week, and the yield to maturity was - 6.47%, down 0.01%. Their percentile levels since 2017 were 99.20 and 0.60 respectively. [4][6][10] 3. Clause Statistics 3.1 Redemption - This week, Tongcheng Convertible Bond announced redemption, while Fuchun, Youfa, and Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 Convertible Bonds announced non - redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 25%. There are currently 18 convertible bonds that have announced forced or maturity redemptions but have not yet delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 4.9 billion yuan. There are 34 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 12 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. [4][13][16] 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Lanfan Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 23 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 2 have triggered the downward - revision condition but the stock price is still below the trigger price and no announcement has been made, 32 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 1 has issued a board - meeting proposal for downward revision but has not yet held a shareholders' meeting. [4][18] 3.3 Put Option - This week, Baocai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of now, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements, and 5 are accumulating days to trigger the put - option. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition, 1 is accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision period. [4][22] 4. Primary Market Issuance - There were no new convertible bond issuances this week. Jin 25, Funeng, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 Convertible Bonds have been issued but not yet listed. Jin 25 Convertible Bond is scheduled to list on October 27, 2025. As of now, there are 7 convertible bonds awaiting registration, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 awaiting listing - committee approval, with a total issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan. [4][26] 5. Appendix - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.47% this week. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors showed significant recovery. Most industries saw gains, with the national defense and military industry, electronics, and computer sectors leading the way. [28][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Policy support has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have reached new phased highs, but the style rotation is rapid, with technology and dividend sectors taking turns. Amid the intertwining of Sino - US tariff issues and domestic policy expectations, the equity market is highly volatile, yet its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is expected to be optimistic, and in the short - term, its initiative comes from the liability side. With the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and the potential launch of stock - bond constant ETFs, the convertible bond market may start a new round of rally after a retracement [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's View and Outlook - Policy has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index hit new phased highs, with a fast - paced style rotation between technology and dividend sectors. The equity market is volatile due to Sino - US tariffs and domestic policy expectations, but its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is likely to be positive, and in the short - term, the liability side is driving it. Net inflows into convertible bond ETFs have resumed, and the upcoming stock - bond constant ETFs may increase demand for convertible bonds. Attention should be paid to the start of a new round of market after a retracement [3][6]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - During the week of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, risk preference was resilient, and the 100 - yuan valuation rose to around 36%. High - grade large - cap convertible bonds showed stronger valuation performance. As of the latest data, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the whole - market convertible bonds was 35.7%, up 0.6% from the previous week, and the latest quantile was at the 93.9% percentile since 2017. High - grade convertible bonds had a larger increase in valuation than low - grade ones. Compared with last week, the conversion premium rate and the bottom - support premium rate in each parity range mainly increased. The valuation performance was relatively strong in the low - parity range below 80 yuan and the 110 - 120 yuan parity range, while it slightly declined in the high - parity range above 140 yuan. The median price and the yield to maturity of convertible bonds were reported at 131.80 yuan and - 6.47% respectively, up 2.07 yuan and down 0.01% from the previous week, and their quantile levels were at the 99.20 and 0.60 percentiles since 2017 [5][7][12]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - During the week, Tongcheng Convertible Bond announced redemption, while Fuchun Convertible Bond, Youfa Convertible Bond, and Zhonghuan Convertible Bond 2 announced non - redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 25%. There were 18 convertible bonds that had issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but had not yet delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of the forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones was 4.9 billion yuan. Currently, there were 34 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 12 were expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, which should be closely monitored [5][15][18]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - During the week, Lanfan Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of the latest data, 107 convertible bonds were in the non - downward - revision period, 23 could not be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 2 had triggered the condition and the stock price was still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement had been made, 32 were accumulating days for downward revision, and 1 had issued a board - meeting plan for downward revision but had not yet held a general meeting of shareholders [20]. 3.3.3 Put Option - During the week, Baolai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of the latest data, 2 convertible bonds had issued put - option announcements, and 5 were accumulating days to trigger the put - option. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 had triggered the downward - revision condition, 1 was accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 were in the non - downward - revision period [24]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There was no new issuance of convertible bonds during the week. Jin 25 Convertible Bond, Funeng Convertible Bond, and Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 had been issued but not yet listed. According to the latest announcement, Jin 25 Convertible Bond will be listed next week (October 27, 2025). As of the latest data, there were 7 convertible bonds awaiting registration approval, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 convertible bonds that had passed the listing committee review, with a total issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path, with long - term support from central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations due to geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure [3] - Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, with a bullish outlook on copper prices [17] - China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [38] - Zinc's supply - demand situation shows domestic stable supply and overseas production cuts, with low inventory supporting prices [61] - Nickel ore regulations in Indonesia are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely [76] - Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term [90] - Good market demand for lithium carbonate and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Fundamentals**: Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path. Long - term supports include central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations are caused by geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure. Tensions between Russia and the US add to market uncertainty [3] Copper - **Policy Impact**: Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, and policies are bullish on copper prices [17] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, with the highest daily increase of 1.92% for the main and continuous - one contracts [18] - **Spot Data**: Spot copper prices in different regions have daily increases ranging from 1.09% to 1.17%, and there are changes in spot premiums and discounts [24] Aluminum - **Macro and Fundamentals**: China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support. Short - term SHFE aluminum may fluctuate at a high level [38] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [39] - **Spot Data**: Spot aluminum prices in different regions and relevant premiums and discounts have daily changes, and LME aluminum spot price and premiums also change [49] Zinc - **Supply - Demand and Price**: Domestic zinc supply is stable, overseas production is cut, and low inventory supports prices. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets is large, and short - term attention should be paid to export windows and macro - driving factors [61] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [62] - **Spot Data**: SMM zinc average prices increase by 0.41%, and there are changes in LME zinc premiums [69] Nickel - **Industry Conditions**: Indonesia's nickel ore regulations are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely. WTO rulings and BIS certifications are positive for stainless steel exports [76] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts show different changes, along with changes in trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts [77] Tin - **Supply - Demand**: Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a predicted support level of 276,000 yuan [90] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [91] - **Spot Data**: Spot tin prices in different categories have daily increases ranging from 0.35% to 0.83% [93] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Good market demand and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts show different daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [104] - **Spot Data**: Prices of various lithium products show daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between different lithium products [108] Silicon - **Industry Conditions**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] - **Futures Data**: Latest prices of industrial silicon futures contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [115] - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are stable, with changes in basis and price spreads [115]