Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 1.89%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. It shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. However, the low inventory, recent policy benefits, positive market sentiment, and strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend, and policy conditions should be closely monitored [4][40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.16%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Supply and demand have weakened, the fundamentals are weakly stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price to maintain a relatively strong trend, but overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [6][41]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price rose significantly with a daily increase of 3.67%, trading volume increased while open interest was stable. Ore demand has some resilience, and optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the short - term upward trend. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially in the context of weak supply and demand, and caution is needed regarding the upward height, as well as the possible shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [6][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, the land transfer fees for residential land in first - and second - tier cities increased by over 40%. The land transfer fees in 300 cities increased by 27.5% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 5.5%. The concentration of land transfer fees in the top 20 cities increased to 68%, and the land transfer fees for residential - related land in Hangzhou and Beijing exceeded 10 billion yuan [8]. - **Automobile**: In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. The export of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [9]. - **Mineral Exploration**: In the first half of 2025, 38 new mineral deposits were discovered in China, a year - on - year increase of 31%, including 25 large and medium - sized ones. Non - oil and gas mineral exploration investment reached 6.693 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. Social capital investment in exploration reached 3.359 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, accounting for 48% of the total [10]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index, are provided, along with their price changes [11]. 3. Futures Market - **Contract Information**: The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented [15]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][18][20]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal patterns and inventory changes [22][23][29]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and the operating rate and profitability of electric furnaces of steel mills [32][34][35]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both weak, with production and demand decreasing. The low inventory, policy benefits, and strong raw materials support the short - term upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand have weakened, with production and demand decreasing. Policy expectations and strong raw materials support the price, but overseas tariff risks should be watched out for [41]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand have weakened, with inventory increasing and consumption decreasing. The short - term upward trend is supported by demand resilience and optimistic sentiment, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially [41].

7月9日亚盘早市，国际现货黄金延续隔夜跌势，开盘后快速下探至3284.9美元/盎司，创7月2日以来新低，随后小幅反弹 至3390美元/盎司附近震荡，日内跌幅达0.34%。较上一交易日收盘价下跌16美元左右，市场交投情绪显著转空。 | 昨收 | 3301.63 最高 | 3307.90 | | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3301.26 最低 | 3284.92 | | 买入 | 3290.30 卖出 | 3290.50 | 一、贸易乐观情绪主导市场，避险需求大幅降温 美国总统特朗普于7月7日宣布将对日本、韩国等14国加征关税的生效日期推迟至8月1日，并明确表示"对等关税"将不再延 期。尽管关税最终落地仍存不确定性，但日韩等国已表态将在8月1日前与美方积极谈判，市场对贸易摩擦升级的担忧暂时 缓解。 日本财务大臣麻生太郎称将密切评估关税影响，韩国产业通商资源部则表示将争取减少冲击。这一政策缓冲期的延长，叠 加地缘政治风险边际缓和（如霍尔木兹海峡通航量回升至正常水平的60%），推动全球风险偏好回升，黄金作为避险资产 的吸引力显著下降。 二、美元走强与美联储政策预期压制金价 美元指数在亚盘早市延 ...

国际油价在贸易乐观情绪下小幅上涨，交易员密切关注美国与贸易伙伴的谈判进展以及本周末OPEC+会议。 据新华社7月3日报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已经与越南达成贸易协议。市场对贸易谈判的乐观情绪为油价提供了支撑，但分析师认为这种 涨势可能难以持续。ING集团商品策略主管Warren Patterson表示： "虽然贸易乐观情绪推动了油价上涨，但这种涨势的可持续性可能是短暂的。OPEC+将在本周末决定8月份的产量水平，因此市场在美 国长周末前可能会谨慎持有过多风险。" 美国最新数据显示，全国原油库存增加380万桶，这是5月以来的首次周度增长。然而，位于俄克拉荷马州Cushing的石油储存中心库存连续第四 周下降，达到2014年以来同期最低水平。 市场指标显示出强势迹象，持续的热浪和美国驾驶季提振了需求。布伦特原油近月价差为每桶1.19美元的现货升水，虽然低于上月以色列-伊朗冲 突期间的高位，但仍高于一个月前的69美分。 截止发稿，布伦特原油在周三大涨3%后，周四交易价格接近每桶69美元，西德克萨斯中质原油价格现跌至66.7美元。 市场目前预计，该组织将同意大幅增加供应配额。与此同时，美国原油库存出现5月以来首次 ...

【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 | 元/吨 | 13,805 | 0.44% | 13810 | 0.04% | | | CY2509 | 元/吨 | 20,075 | 0.15% | 20075 | 0.00% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 68.64 | 1.00% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 259,796 | 3,746 | 852,918 | -1,420 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 7,387 | -1,999 | 22,405 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 10,190 | -21 | 269 | -32 | | | 棉纱 | 张 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | | ...

智通财经APP获悉，周一公布的一项调查显示，随着企业对经济前景变得更加乐观，英国雇主的信心水 平在本月达到九年来的新高。劳埃德银行商业晴雨表(Lloyds Bank Business Barometer) 在5月大幅上升11 个百分点后，在6月继续上升了一个百分点，达到51%，为2015年11月以来的最高水平。与此同时，调 查中的经济乐观指数触及10个月来的高点，较上月再升一个百分点，此前5月曾大幅跃升16个百分点。 劳埃德银行商业银行的高级经济学家Hann-Ju Ho表示，雇佣意向的上升——60%的企业预计未来一年将 增加员工——表明企业正开始为未来增长做准备。 招聘网站Adzuna公布的另一组数据显示，英国5月份的职位空缺数量较4月略有下降，但同比增长 0.5%，这是在经历了一年多的下降之后，连续第三个月取得同比增长。Adzuna联合创始人Andrew Hunter表示："5月的数据强化了英国就业市场正逐步站稳脚跟的迹象。" 尽管如此，英国工业联合会(CBI)表示，企业对未来三个月经济的预期虽然较5月时的悲观情绪有所缓 解，但在经历了雇主税负增加和地缘政治动荡后，整体情绪仍然疲弱。CBI副首席经济学家Al ...

豆粕周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 远端偏紧预期支撑 连粕或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆7月合约涨10.5收于1068.5美分/蒲式耳， 涨幅0.99%；豆粕09合约涨31收于3041元/吨，涨幅1.03%； 华南豆粕现货涨60收于2880元/吨，涨幅2.13%；菜粕09合 约涨66收于2674元/吨，涨幅2.53%；广西菜粕现货涨80收 于2560元/吨，涨幅3.23%。 ⚫ 美豆周内震荡回落后大幅收涨，USDA报告未对美豆平衡 表做调整，2024/2025年 ...

Group 1 - HSBC raised the target price for Zijin Mining (02899.HK) by 4.5% from HKD 22.2 to HKD 23.2, maintaining a buy rating [1] - The company has a solid fundamental outlook, despite production disruptions caused by seismic activity [1] - The copper production forecast for Kamoa-Kakula by Ivanhoe Mines has been reduced by 150,000 to 160,000 tons for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Production at the western section of Kakula has resumed as of June, and a new smelting plant is expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025 [1] - The strong performance of Hong Kong-listed mining stocks is attributed to concerns over copper tariffs leading to increased exports of U.S. copper concentrate, along with ongoing destocking in London Metal Exchange (LME) and China [1] - Antofagasta's processing fee quote for the second half of 2025 is set at USD 15 per ton, raising concerns about a potential shortage of copper concentrate [1] - Optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations has alleviated fears of an economic recession [1]

农产品早报 2025-06-06 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周四美豆小幅上涨，中美元首通话提供贸易乐观情绪，美豆种植及天气情况偏好限制涨幅。国内豆粕现 货稳定，因压榨量处于高位，供应宽松，华东低价报 2790 元/吨，国内豆粕成交较弱，开机率较高。MYSTEEL 统计上周港口大豆库存达 700 万吨，油厂豆粕库存稍低为 29 万吨，后续豆粕、大豆预计仍然维持累库 局面，因前期到港开机延迟，近期下游在油厂开机后补库，表观消费较好，预计油厂库存压力延迟到 6 月中下旬或 7 月显现。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，不过爱荷华州及以北降雨偏少。巴西升贴水近期有所上 调，对冲美豆跌幅，大豆到港成本稳定。25/26 年度美豆面积下降，单产的扰 ...

美国企业乐观情绪大幅下滑，延续并加深了第一季度的下降趋势，标志着与唐纳德·特朗普再次当选总 统后企业高管的乐观情绪相比发生了明显逆转。国际注册专业会计师协会(AICPA) 5月对企业高管进行 的调查显示，仅有27%的受访者对未来12个月经济前景表示乐观，这一比例较第一季度的47%和去年第 四季度（美国大选后）的67%显著下降。 ...

油价周五小幅上涨，贸易乐观情绪能否抵消伊朗供应重返市场带来的影响？油价周线能否录得收涨？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...