中航期货 2025-08-22 沥青周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 05 后市研判 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 报告PA摘R要T 01 （1）美俄总统会晤及美国总统与欧洲多国领导人会晤结果基本符合市场预期。 （2）美联储公布会议纪要显示，联邦公开市场委员会在货币政策路径上分歧加剧。 （3）EIA原油当周库存超预期下降。 市场焦点 | | （1）截止8月20日，国内沥青样本企业开工率30.7%，较上一统计周期回落2.2个百分点。 | | --- | --- | | 重点数据 | （2）截止8月22日，国内沥青周度产量54.8万吨，环比上周减少4万吨。 | | | （3）截止8月22日，国内沥青样本企业厂库库存71.6万吨，当周环比增加0.5万吨。 | | | （4）截止8月22日，国内沥青样本企业社会库存129.2万吨，环比上周减少5.1万吨。 | | | 本周沥青基本面延续供需双弱的特征，供应端，周度产量及开工率环比下降，需求端，出货量环比小幅下降，厂 | | 主要观点 | 库在产量下降的背景下仍呈现小幅累库的态势，表明 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to range - bound between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Macro factors like US economic data and tariff policies, along with fundamental supply - demand and inventory conditions, will influence the price. The market is in a state of short - term supply - demand weakness during the off - season, but "tight mining end + demand resilience" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week. The market will experience a game between short - term supply disturbances and over - capacity. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,400 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as tight scrap aluminum supply and weak terminal demand [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Upward rebound requires continuous inventory reduction and improved interest - rate cut expectations without overseas economic recession. Downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. The current supply - demand situation provides limited support for continuous price increase, but low inventory provides price support [9]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate. Supply is currently tight, and demand is expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward price space [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract operating range of 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Cost support is strengthening, but the weak spot demand restricts the fundamentals [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, around 85,000 yuan/ton. The market is affected by short - term news, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider light - position long - entry at low prices [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.05%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 53.62 yuan/ton to 65TT yuan/ton, a decline of 4.54%. The import profit and loss increased by 119.85 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.79% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 20,710 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.24%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 58.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.26% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%. The import profit and loss increased by 80.61 yuan/ton to - 1,813 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamentals - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97% [9]. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons to 12.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.13% [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 269,500 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.26%. The import profit and loss decreased by 717.98 yuan/ton to - 16,507.39 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamentals - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94% [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.36%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamentals - China's refined nickel production in the reference period decreased by 3,220 tons to 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume increased by 10,325 tons to 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.38%. The 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamentals - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) decreased by 6.83 million tons to 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83% [16]. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.23%. The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamentals - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% [19]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in July decreased by 2,012 tons to 97,846 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡回落 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价再度走弱，录得 0.92%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 供应扰动不断，支撑原料强势上行，因而成本抬升带动钢价走高，但供 需双增局面下螺纹钢基本面表现偏弱，钢价同样承压，上行驱动也不 强，预计钢价走势维持震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡回落，录得 0.66%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，供需双弱局面下热卷基本面持续走弱，库存增加且增幅扩大，弱现 实下热卷价格继续承压，但原料强势带来成本支撑，预计走势延续震荡 运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段，铁 矿石需求在走弱，而供应回升也不及预期，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面 平稳运行，但钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，继续给予矿价支撑， 预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The PX and PTA markets are under pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory build - up, and are expected to continue their weak trend. The polyester industry chain is in a weak supply - demand pattern and may maintain a weak and volatile short - term performance [2][5]. - Future prices of PX and PTA may continue to face downward pressure, with supply - side开工率 remaining stable or high, cost support weakening due to falling crude oil prices, demand being dragged down by the possible weakening of polyester demand, and inventory likely to accumulate [37]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On August 8, the PX main contract closed at 6726.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 9.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4684.0 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.41 US dollars/barrel, and the WTI was 63.82 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction volume was 486.27 million meters [3]. - In terms of supply, the short - term supply pressure of PX and PTA has increased marginally. The continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a significant collapse in PX cost support. Although the PX plant maintenance plan has not been implemented, PX enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain a high operating rate. For PTA, the restart plan of plants in August has increased, and the operating rate may remain high, with an increasing expectation of short - term supply relaxation [3]. - In terms of demand, polyester and terminal demand show seasonal weakness. The average transaction volume of the Light Textile City in the past 15 days is 486.27 million meters, and the recent transaction volume has further declined to 479 million meters, indicating that terminal textile orders have not improved substantially. The polyester operating rate may fluctuate narrowly between 84% - 86% and is difficult to drive PTA demand beyond expectations [4]. - In terms of inventory, PTA factory inventory has the risk of passive accumulation. The PTA supply - demand balance has changed from tight to loose in August, and the destocking cycle may end. If demand remains weak and new PTA plants are put into production as expected, social inventory may return to the inventory build - up channel, and the spot basis will continue to be at a discount, suppressing the elasticity of futures prices [4]. Polyester - On August 8, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6382.0 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6490.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 108.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The polyester industry chain shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream raw material supply is abundant or the cost support is weakening. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory days of polyester filament POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased and are higher than the five - year average, and the overall inventory pressure is large. In the short term, the polyester industry chain may maintain a weak and volatile operation [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.44% to 6.726 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 25.72% to 64,578 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.12% to 91,057 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port remained unchanged at 839.67 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 1.10% to 806 US dollars/ton. The PX basis increased by 142.86% to 9 yuan/ton [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.09% to 4,684 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 16.74% to 347,274 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.40% to 700,930 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port decreased by 0.96% to 622 US dollars/ton. The PTA basis increased by 200.00% to 6 yuan/ton [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.16% to 6,382 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 4.03% to 109,840 lots, and the open interest increased by 2.40% to 178,205 lots. The mainstream spot price in the East China market remained unchanged at 6,490 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 10.20% to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - Other prices: The Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.14% to 66.32 US dollars/barrel, the US crude oil main contract decreased by 0.74% to 63.35 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR price of naphtha in Japan decreased by 0.09% to 570.5 US dollars/ton [6]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 8, Trump nominated Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, Waller became a hot candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, the US Treasury Secretary started the interview process for the Federal Reserve Chairman, and Bostic said that the July employment report changed the Federal Reserve's view on employment goals. The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month, and the gold reserve at the end of July was 73.96 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces. The People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [8]. - On August 7, Trump said that the new Federal Reserve Board member might be temporary and would announce the appointment within 2 - 3 days, and also said that if other countries imported Russian crude oil, they might be imposed a 25% tariff. Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two interest rate cuts this year were reasonable [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On August 8, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.97%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 394.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 86.0 million meters [9]. 4. Appendix: Big Model Reasoning Process - Analyze from the supply, demand, and inventory perspectives. On the supply side, the operating rates of PX and PTA may remain stable or high, and the falling crude oil prices lead to weakened cost support. On the demand side, the slightly decreased transaction volume of the Light Textile City may indicate weakening polyester demand, which in turn drags down PTA demand. On the inventory side, inventory may accumulate due to the supply - demand relationship [35][36][37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a pattern of strong supply and demand. New production capacities are being released, and maintenance devices are restarting, leading to a significant increase in production. Although social inventories are accumulating, they are still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm [4]. - The PP market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge, with enterprises and traders' inventories accumulating, while downstream maintains low inventories. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the peak season [8]. - The propylene market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price trend is more likely to be range - bound. In August, the weak pattern of the propylene market is difficult to change, and the monthly average price is expected to fluctuate around 6350 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic Market - **This Week's Review**: The L2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7251, 7344], with an opening price of 7312 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7290 yuan/ton. The market followed cost and sentiment for range - bound fluctuations. The far - month L2601 contract was firm [3][16]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Production is expected to increase by 1.5 tons week - on - week. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Social inventories are accumulating but are still at a relatively low level. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks [4]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The L2509 contract should focus on the range of [7200 - 7350]. Hold the long LP09 arbitrage. Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [6]. 3.2 PP Market - **This Week's Review**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7047, 7108], with an opening price of 7098 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7062 yuan/ton. The market followed macro - sentiment fluctuations, with significantly reduced volatility and a downward - shifting center of gravity. The fundamentals showed little supply - demand contradiction, with both supply and demand being weak [7][55]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge [8]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The PP2509 contract should focus on the range of [7000 - 7200]. Wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Propylene Market - **This Week's Review**: The PL2601 contract fluctuated in the range of [6416, 6555], with an opening price of 6480 yuan/ton and a closing price of 6451 yuan/ton [10][83]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: A new propylene plant in Ningbo has produced products and plans to export. A large number of propylene shipments may enter the market in the short term, suppressing the US dollar market price. The demand side has seen some improvement in production enthusiasm. The market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price is expected to be range - bound [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks at the current low price level. The PL2601 contract should focus on the range of [6300 - 6500]. Hold the long PP - PL01 spread arbitrage [12]. 3.4 Macro Review and Outlook - **This Week's Review**: The overall weekly increase was PVC > polyolefin = commodity > energy - chemical. Coking coal continued its upward trend, and PVC was more affected by the cost - side coal. WTI oil prices fell below the key support level, and the oil - chemical sector was weak [13]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Pay attention to tariff dynamics and domestic anti - involution policy changes [13].

热轧卷板周度数据（20250808） | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周值 | 环比变化 | 上月末值 | 本月变化 | 同期值 | 同期变化 | | 供给 | 周度产量 | 314.89 | -7.90 | 322.79 | -7.90 | 303.56 | 11.33 | | | 高炉产能利用率（%） | 90.09 | -0.15 | 90.24 | -0.15 | 87.02 | 3.07 | | 需求 | 表观需求量 | 306.21 | -13.79 | 320.00 | -13.79 | 298.51 | 7.70 | | | 冷轧卷板周产量 | 86.05 | -1.13 | 87.18 | -1.13 | 81.13 | 4.92 | | 库存 | 总库存 | 356.63 | 8.68 | 347.95 | 8.68 | 437.36 | -80.73 | | | 厂内库存 | 77.88 | -1. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the lead industry is "Oscillation" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the lead price showed a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little driving force on lead. The supply side remained relatively stable, with the electrolytic lead operating rate steady and the secondary lead smelting still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. The demand side improved slightly compared to last week as the low lead price prompted downstream enterprises to replenish stocks at low prices. However, the lead battery operating rate remained sluggish, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the lead market will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Disk Review - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, closing at 16,955 yuan per ton. The inventory of lead ingots in five domestic regions was 71,400 tons, and the LME inventory was 266,300 tons [1] Industrial Performance - Due to the resumption of production of a smelter in Anhui this week, the regional operating rate increased by 6.6 percentage points. A large secondary lead smelter in Inner Mongolia is in the furnace-drying stage and is expected to produce lead next week. From January to June 2025, the monthly average sequential growth rate of electric bicycles sold through the trade-in program was 113.5%, and the output of the top ten brands of electric bicycles increased by 27.6% year-on-year. A total of 846,500 electric bicycles were traded in and replaced each, and 82,000 sales outlets participated in the program, with an average increase in single-store sales of 302,000 yuan [1] Core Logic - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little impact on lead. On the supply side, there was little change, with the electrolytic lead operating rate remaining stable. Secondary lead was still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. On the demand side, it improved compared to last week as the low lead price led to downstream restocking. However, the lead battery operating rate remained weak, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillatory trend [2] Nanhua's Viewpoint - The lead market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [2]

Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report released by AVIC Futures on July 25, 2025 [2] - The current asphalt fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production and operating rate on the supply side decreased, while the shipment volume on the demand side increased slightly. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries, and the social inventory increased slightly, suggesting weak downstream demand [6] - Crude oil currently lacks a core driving factor. Seasonal peak - season consumption demand and improved macro - risk sentiment provide some upward momentum, but OPEC+ continuous production increase suppresses the oil price rebound expectation. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate widely in a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and crude oil fluctuations will dominate the market trend [6] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3550 - 3700 yuan/ton for the BU2509 contract [7] Multi - empty Focus - The multi - factors for asphalt are marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory, while the empty factors are lower - than - expected demand and high supply [10] Macro Analysis Trade Agreements - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks from July 27 - 30 in Sweden [11] - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, including issues such as a 15% tariff and supply - chain cooperation [11] - The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on $93 billion worth of US products on July 24. The EU plans to merge two retaliatory tariff lists into one [11] - US President Trump said on July 23 that the US will impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most other countries [11] Oil Market Forecasts - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintains economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. In June, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day [12] - IEA lowers the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 740,000 to 722,000 barrels per day. It raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million to 2.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 1.1 million to 1.3 million barrels per day [12] - The OPEC monthly report is relatively neutral, while the IEA report is relatively pessimistic, maintaining the expectation of crude oil supply surplus [12] Data Analysis Supply - In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, it is still lower than the production increase plan [13] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly production was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the previous week. The increase in refinery maintenance plans led to a slight decline in production, but there is potential for a seasonal rebound in the third quarter [15] - As of July 23, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 28.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The decline was more obvious in South China and Shandong. The reasons include refineries adjusting production plans and seasonal demand disturbances [24] Demand - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 415,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The shipment volume has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks but is still lower than that at the beginning of June, indicating a phased weakening of demand due to southern rainfall [25] - As of July 25, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 14.46%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was flat in most regions this week [28] Import and Export - In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons (5.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. The cumulative imports from January - June were 1.725 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.53% [35] - In June, domestic asphalt exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. The cumulative exports from January - June were 279,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 53.36% [38] Inventory - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. The decline in factory inventory was lower than the decrease in production, indicating poor sales for refineries [48] - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,000 tons. The increase was due to the impact of typhoons and rainfall in the southern region on demand [55] Spread - As of July 25, the domestic asphalt processing dilution weekly profit was - 514.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.9 yuan/ton. As of July 23, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.94, and as of July 24, the asphalt basis was 133 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread declined this week due to the phased weakening of asphalt fundamentals [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak reality versus strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing due to positive macro - policy expectations. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, but is expected to weaken further during the summer heat, and inventory is likely to rise. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong, supported by the rising prices of rebar, coking coal, and glass, but overall it is in a large - range oscillation [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth plan for ten key industries including steel, and the National Energy Administration is checking for over - production in coal mines, which led to the continuous limit - up of coking coal and a sharp rise in coke and other black - series products [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production decreased, factory inventory declined, social inventory continued to rise, and total inventory increased. Apparent demand dropped month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, and it is expected to weaken further during the summer heat [2] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices have risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing a short - term strong performance [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, buy on dips after adjustments, and conduct short - term operations. Investors with empty positions should be cautious about chasing the rise [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased. For example, the rebar main - contract closing price is 3307 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from the previous day and 6.20% from last week [2] - **Production**: National building - material steel mill rebar production is 209.06 million tons, down 3.51% from last week; hot - rolled coil production is 321.14 million tons, down 0.62% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: Five major steel product social inventory is 922.11 million tons, up 0.89% from last week; rebar social inventory is 370.16 million tons, up 2.97% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mill profitability is fair, with the profit - making steel mill ratio close to 60%. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, but there is significant downward pressure in the near future as it is the consumption off - season. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports futures prices, but port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are rising strongly but are in a large - range oscillation overall [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, be cautious about chasing the rise, and wait patiently for a pull - back before buying on dips for short - term operations [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased. For example, the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 1.73% from the previous day and 7.30% from last week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron - ore shipment is 1404.9 million tons, down 10.51% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipment is 833.2 million tons, up 17.37% from last week [5] - **Inventory**: Port total inventory is 13785.21 million tons, up 0.14% from last week; port trade - ore inventory is 9193.54 million tons, down 0.50% from last week [5] 3. Industry News - **Coal Industry**: The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in eight provinces (regions) to promote stable and orderly coal supply. This led to a limit - up in coking coal and a collective surge in the coal sector yesterday [7] - **Iron - Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports is 14388.56 million tons, an increase of 72.25 million tons from last Monday. Inventory in some regions has increased, while that in others has decreased slightly [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a shock and consolidation manner [3] - Alumina spot prices are expected to gradually peak, and aluminum ingot prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, focusing on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a predicted impact on building steel production of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. The daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with prices hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, domestic "anti - involution" policies drove industrial metals up, and the long - term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged, while overseas macro uncertainties still exist [2] - Some enterprises will start maintenance in late July, which may lead to a decline in the local alumina operating capacity. Some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects in the southwest region are about to be put into production, driving up the demand for alumina in the region. However, from a national perspective, alumina supply is still relatively loose, and the weekly inventory of alumina in national electrolytic aluminum plants has increased by about 25,800 tons this week, which is expected to put pressure on the spot price [3] - On July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 498,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 3,000 tons from last Monday. The reduction of aluminum rods at the end of the month led to a decrease in the expected proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots. The increase in arrivals became the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season, but the recent inventory performance has been fluctuating [3] - The off - season inventory fluctuates, and the pressure on the demand side in the off - season limits the upward space. With the increase in macro - risk pricing, attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies. Driven by short - term policies, metal prices have risen. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, and follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]