市场情绪扰动，盘面波动加剧 工业硅/多晶硅 20251124 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格波动幅度加大。截至2025年11月21日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8900元/吨， 环比上周持平。期货方面，本周主力合约偏弱震荡后大幅冲高回落，截至11月21日主力合约收8960元/吨。 供应：新疆地区开工率保持稳定，供应以稳为主；西北青海、宁夏、甘肃地区开工变化不大；云南地区个别硅企有减 停，产量小幅回落；四川地区平水期，月底将进入枯水期，开工率将进一步下调。整体而言，工业硅产量环比下降。 需求：多晶硅企业周度开工环比持稳，对工业硅需求较为稳定；有机硅开工环比基本稳定，近期有少量单体产能增开， 有机硅反内卷会议后价格出现调涨，引发硅能源大幅反弹，但随后市场逐步消化情绪，价格也有所回落；铝合金企业 开工率小幅增加，下游订单需求尚可。出口方面，10月工业硅出口4.51万吨，环比减少36%，同比减少31%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计11月20日工业硅全国社会库存共计54.8万吨， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weak supply and demand, the asphalt futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future. The supply side is passively shrinking due to profit decline, the demand side is restricted by funds and weather factors, showing a regional differentiation of "weak in the north and strong in the south" with insufficient overall recovery momentum. Although the destocking of asphalt social inventory has relieved market pressure, the marginal increase in refinery inventory also indicates increasing sales pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Profit Affects Supply - Recently, the asphalt futures 2601 contract dropped to around 3,000 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals continue the situation of weak supply and demand, with light trading in the spot market and a continuous weakening of the basis between futures and spot, highlighting the pattern of a lackluster peak season [2]. - Since the fourth quarter, affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, asphalt processing profits have been in a loss state. For example, Shandong local refineries once suffered losses of more than 600 yuan/ton in asphalt processing. Although the processing profits have recently recovered, they are still far below normal levels. As a result, refineries' production enthusiasm has been dampened, and they have actively reduced asphalt output through maintenance or production conversion. As of the week of November 12, the average theoretical asphalt processing profit in China was -593.2 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58.8 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 30.8%, a weekly decrease of 1.1 percentage points; and the weekly asphalt output was 514,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.4% [2]. - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries is at a near five-year high, and asphalt production is at a near five-year medium-high level. Against the backdrop of still high supply pressure, the spot price of asphalt has continued to decline since November. As of November 12, the average spot price of asphalt was 3,211 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 120 yuan/ton, or a decline of 3.6%. The supply in Shandong has increased significantly, refineries' enthusiasm for releasing contracts has risen, and considering the decrease in downstream consumption during the off-season, prices are under pressure [2]. Terminal Recovery is Weak - The downstream demand for asphalt is mainly for road infrastructure, accounting for up to 70%. Its prosperity is closely related to the issuance progress of local government special bonds and the availability of project funds. Although 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and some northern projects have the expectation of rushing to complete work, the overall infrastructure investment growth rate has fallen short of expectations, and the expected increase in demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season did not occur. Poor fund availability has led to slow project progress, resulting in limited actual asphalt physical work volume [3]. - Judging from the operating rate data, the operating rates of major downstream industries such as heavy-traffic asphalt and modified asphalt are generally lower than historical levels, reflecting weak terminal demand recovery. In the second half of November, a new round of cold weather occurred in some northern regions, and market rigid demand gradually slowed down, with road construction basically at a standstill. In contrast, due to relatively favorable weather conditions in the southern region, some infrastructure projects still have the need to rush to complete work, which is currently one of the few demand bright spots. However, the southern market has a low acceptance of high-priced newly produced asphalt and prefers to purchase low-priced social inventory resources. As of the end of the first ten days of November, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 362,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 18.7% [3]. De-stocking Pattern Continues - Currently, the inventory of domestic asphalt continues to decline. According to data from Longzhong Information, as of the week of November 17, the social inventory of asphalt dropped to 1.128 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.5%. Among them, the social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly. Some projects in Shandong are in the final stage, and industry players have mostly sold off their inventory, driving a significant reduction in social inventory. Although the northern terminals have entered the shutdown stage, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling is low, and the wait-and-see atmosphere has gradually become stronger. The refinery inventory rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years, and it still has a supporting effect on prices. With the rapid shrinkage of northern demand, if the southern rush-to-complete work demand cannot effectively take over, the refinery inventory pressure will gradually emerge in the later part of the fourth quarter [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weak and has been adjusted downwards. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides certain support from import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 decreased on November 20 compared to November 19, with decreases of - 0.45%, - 0.51%, and - 0.44% respectively. Some basis and spreads showed small changes. Most spot prices remained stable, except for the 4A medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 yuan, a - 1.32% decline. The import cost increased slightly by 0.78 yuan, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also increased slightly [2]. Supply - Monthly port arrivals in October increased by 24.7 million cubic meters compared to September, a 13.99% increase. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8, a 17.39% increase. Weekly major port inventories in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions increased, with increases of 0.68%, 2.04%, and 1.46% respectively [2][3]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a - 1% decline. In Shandong, it decreased by 3%, while in Jiangsu, it increased by 7% [3]. Forecast of Arrivals - From November 17 - 23, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 3 to 13, a 30% week - on - week increase. The total arrival volume increased by 150,000 cubic meters to about 465,000 cubic meters, a 48% week - on - week increase [3].

行情走势 01 11月19日（周三），工业硅主力合约盘中一度涨超6.%，价格最高上涨至9545元/吨，创下近期新高。截止下午收盘，工业硅主力合约收涨 4.68%，报9390元/吨。 工业硅今日为何大涨？ 据市场消息，有机硅单体厂实控人会议昨日在上海如期召开，此次会议由行业权威机构中国氟硅有机材料工业协会主办，国内有机硅龙头企业 系数参加。据市场信息，参会企业总产能占全行业产能的80%以上，会议核心议题聚焦于联合减排与行业挺价事宜，标志着有机硅行业在应 对市场困境方面迈出关键一步。 会议确定的减排方案计划自12月1日起正式执行，具体执行期限目前尚未明确。根据第三方测算，若12月份满月执行该减产计划，预计当月 DMC（二甲基环硅氧烷）产量约为21.04万吨，较减产前减少约0.8万吨。这一减产幅度对上游工业硅的消费量影响约在0.44万吨，将在一 定程度上缓解上游原材料的供应压力。 价格方面，会议明确有机硅DMC指导价格为13000-13200元/吨，较联合挺价前（即11月12日）累计上涨约1700-2000元/吨。其他下游 产 品 价 格 同 步 跟 涨 ， 其 中 107 胶 价 格 在 13700-14000 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weakening and has been adjusted downwards. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 17th, compared with November 14th, the price of log 2601 increased by 0.5 yuan to 789 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.06%; the price of log 2603 increased by 3.5 yuan to 799 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.44%; the price of log 2605 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 809.5 yuan, with a decline rate of -0.06%. The price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 740 yuan [1] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 17th compared with November 14th. For example, the price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 700 yuan, and the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port was 710 yuan [1] - External quotes: The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged on November 21st compared with November 14th, at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 17th was 7.105 yuan, an increase of 0.01 yuan compared with November 16th. The import theoretical cost was 810.08 yuan, an increase of 1.22 yuan compared with November 16th [1] Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters compared with September, with a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased from 46 to 54, with a growth rate of 17.39% [1] - In the week of November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 48% [2] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared with November 7th. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 82.45 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.04%, and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 1.46% [1][2] Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily outbound volume in China decreased from 6.63 million cubic meters on November 7th to 6.56 million cubic meters on November 14th, with a decline rate of - 1%. In Shandong, it decreased from 3.79 million cubic meters to 3.67 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of - 3%. In Jiangsu, it increased from 2.28 million cubic meters to 2.44 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 7% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and weak operation, and the market is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the downstream being differentiated in the off - season and the price under pressure for adjustment. The market presents a structurally differentiated trend [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center of gravity moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] Aluminum Alumina - The alumina market has a continuous supply - surplus pattern, the decline of spot prices has slowed but not stopped, and the industry profit is shrinking. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions are facing losses, resulting in a 17,000 - ton week - on - week decrease in production. The total inventory has reached 4.793 million tons, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [3] Aluminum Water and Downstream - The SMM weekly aluminum water ratio last week was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are in the transition from peak to off - season, and the aluminum price increase has put pressure on downstream processing fees, leading to production cuts in some processing enterprises [3] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% last week. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term, with grid orders supporting the slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [3] - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [3] Price Outlook - Macro factors have a mixed impact, and the market still expects a tightening of overseas supply. However, with the arrival of the off - season in China, the downstream is weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. The price is expected to have a short - term correction space [4]

供需双弱 成本支撑区间震荡 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，关注价格来到低位后是否形成减产趋势。需求方面，本周钢联样本钢材表需与 产量继续双双下降，唐山阶段性限产结束后，本周铁水产量出现反弹，但目前钢材利润仍然不佳，原料需求端始终存在下行预期。 成本端方面，枯水期叠加煤炭现货价格强势，各产区铁合金电价总体稳中偏强。总体来看，基本面供需双弱，成本端有所抬升，预 计延续底部震荡走势。 锰硅方面，供应端同样出现小幅下滑，关注后续是否形成减产趋势。需求方面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation. Although the spot price is weak and the supply is expected to increase, the current low futures price and the price inversion between the domestic and foreign markets provide some support for the futures price, limiting its downward space [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 13, the price of log2511 remained unchanged at 740.0; log2601 rose to 783.5, up 5.0 (0.64%); log2603 rose to 793.5, up 1.0 (0.13%); log2605 fell to 810.0, down 2.0 (-0.25%) [2] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 13 compared to November 12 [2] - Spread and basis: The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 5.0 to -43.5; the 11 - 03 spread decreased by 1.0 to -53.5; the 11 - contract basis remained unchanged at 10.0; the 01 - contract basis decreased by 5.0 to -33.5 [2] - Foreign quotes: On November 14, the CFR prices of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged compared to November 7 [2] - Import cost: The RMB/USD exchange rate decreased to 7.102 on November 13, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 809.77 yuan [2] 3.2 Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 13.99% from September; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0 (17.39%) [2] - Expected supply (November 10 - 16, 2025): The number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a week - on - week decrease of 25%; the total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 26% [3] 3.3 Inventory - Weekly inventory of major ports: As of November 7, the total inventory in Chinese ports increased by 5.0 (1.74%) to 288.0 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it increased by 3.2 (1.70%) to 191.5 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it increased by 0.2 (0.24%) to 82.45 million cubic meters [2][3] 3.4 Demand - Weekly demand: As of November 7, the daily average outbound volume in China increased by 0.35 (6%) to 6.63 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it increased by 0.60 (19%) to 3.79 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.15 (-6%) to 2.28 million cubic meters [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement in demand. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - The downstream replenishment willingness of polysilicon is limited, and there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market, which restricts the upward space of the market. Investors with existing long positions should protect their profits. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.54% to 9,145 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area entered the high-cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises shut down their furnaces. In November, the industrial silicon production is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. Downstream demand is weak, with polysilicon enterprises reducing production, organic silicon enterprises operating at reduced capacity or under maintenance, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchasing on demand. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt an interval trading strategy. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton and monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics. [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The prices of N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, N-type mixed material, and N-type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 1.37% to 54,195 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but some new production capacities may be put into operation. In November, production is expected to decline. The polysilicon market has light trading, and downstream resistance to high-priced resources is strong. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply-side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position. Monitor the launch of the polysilicon platform and macro sentiment changes. [1] Other Information - **Silicon Coal Price**: In Gansu, the silicon coal price increased slightly by 30 yuan/ton, with the average price of silicon mixed coal reaching 930 yuan/ton and the average price of granular coal reaching 1,050 yuan/ton. [1] - **Italian Agricultural Photovoltaic Project**: Italy's first-round agricultural photovoltaic plan has selected 747 projects, with a total installed capacity of 2 GW, supported by 1.7 billion euros (1.9 billion US dollars) from the European Recovery Fund. [1]