每经记者｜彭斐 每经编辑｜董兴生 9月，本应是炼化行业的传统消费旺季，但市场却并未迎来预想中的"金九"行情。 《每日经济新闻》记者从卓创资讯获取的最新数据显示，9月国内炼厂综合炼油利润仅为167元/吨，环 比降低174元/吨，降幅达50.99%，同比降幅也达到10.65%。 究其原因，一方面，受国际油价震荡影响，9月国内炼油综合成本为5170元/吨，环比提高82元/吨，涨 幅1.61%；另一方面，炼油产品供需矛盾加剧，9月，炼油产品平均收入为5337元/吨，环比降低92元/ 吨，降幅为1.69%。 "金九"失色之后，市场将目光投向了10月。在国庆、中秋"双节"以及电商"双11"备货的提振下，"银 十"行情能否为行业注入暖流？ 卓创资讯分析师黄海霞分析认为，10月国际油价有望承压调整，或为成本端减负。需求端，柴油在物流 和秋收需求的支撑下将迎来旺季，但汽油消费则面临季节性回调压力。在多空因素交织下，预计10月炼 厂收入环比有望提升，炼厂理论炼油利润环比或上涨。 "金九"行情落空，利润下滑受成本、收入双重挤压 9月，国内炼油行业并未迎来传统旺季，反而在成本与收入的双向夹击下，利润空间被急剧压缩。 从全国范围来看， ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4839 | -57 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 591738 | -62851 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1073359 | -1002 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 837249 | -7171 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 950096 | 8660 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -112847 | -15831 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5000 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4741.15 | -0.38 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4995 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4811.25 | -6.25 | | | PVC:中国:到 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-30 市场情绪偏弱，钢价震荡下行 玻璃纯碱：下游采购谨慎，玻碱偏弱震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面低开偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，下游采购情绪谨慎，以刚需为主。供需与逻辑：目前玻 璃供应大体持稳，消费受到投机性需求和下游补库影响，库存有所去化但整体变化有限，基本面对于价格依旧形 成压制，持续关注宏观政策的变化及玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱盘面低开偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，下游刚需补库为主。供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾依旧存 在，持续关注纯碱投机性需求有无减弱，或将进一步激化纯碱的供需矛盾。目前纯碱盘面升水，压制纯碱价格， 后期关注新产能投产进度和库存变化情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：旺季需求不及预期，双硅市场偏弱运行 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日焦煤期货跌幅明显，锰硅盘面跟随下跌，主力合约收于5820元/吨，较前日下跌46元/吨。现货端： 节前市场成交冷清，6517北方市场价格5620-5670元/吨，南方市场价格5670-572元/吨。 整体而言，本周 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise. Pay attention to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading and the marginal changes in the demand side. The main contract is supported at 81000 - 81500 [1]. Aluminum - The short - term alumina spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract running in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - The supply - relaxation logic has spread from the zinc - mine end to the zinc - ingot end. The zinc price will continue to be under pressure, but the impact of interest - rate cuts on the macro - trading logic needs to be noted [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price is expected to weaken; if the supply recovery is poor, the tin price will continue to oscillate at a high level, in the range of 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price will maintain an interval oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 125000 [15]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless - steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium - carbonate price will oscillate and sort out, with the main - contract price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous value. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. SMM wet - process copper was at 82385 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2905 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 1460 yuan/ton, down 4.58% [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The LME 0 - 3 premium was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7.14% [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 470 yuan/ton, down 20.51% from the previous value [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin - ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% from the previous value; the SMM refined - tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price was 855 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined - nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 51 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [19]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium - carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [19].

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月29日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 82485 | 82505 | -20.00 | -0.02% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -5 | 30 | -35.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 82490 | 82385 | +105.00 | 0.13% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 70 | 60 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 82385 | 82415 | -30.00 | -0.04% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -105 | -60 | -45.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 307J | 3126 | -115.00 | ...

9月26日盘中，胶版印刷纸期货主力合约偏弱震荡，最低下探至4230.00元。截止收盘，胶版印刷纸主力 合约报4230.00元，跌幅0.19%。 瑞达期货：预计双胶纸维持区间偏弱震荡 供应端，本周（20250919-0925）双胶纸产量21.0万吨，较上期增加0.1万吨，增幅0.5%，产能利用率 56.9%，较上期上升0.2%。库存端，截止2025年9月25日，本期双胶纸生产企业库存124.26万吨，环比增 幅1.3%。双胶纸产业库存处于同期高水平，终端整体需求表现力度欠佳，预计双胶纸维持区间偏弱震 荡。OP2601合约建议下方关注4150附近支撑，上方4300附近压力，区间操作。 胶版印刷纸期货主力微跌0.19%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 新世纪期货：双胶纸整体偏空对待 上一工作日现货市场价格偏稳运行。目前双胶纸排产相对稳定，开工较上周小幅回升，但9月份处于下 游季节性淡季，新一轮出版招标尚未开始，加之纸价利润低位，高价备货积极性低。该行业处于产能过 剩阶段，短期供给稳定需求不佳，供需矛盾突出，整体偏空对待。 机构 核心观点 新世纪期货 双胶纸整体偏空对待 瑞达期货（002961） 预计双胶纸维 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-26 市场预期乐观 ，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：交投情绪高涨，玻碱震荡偏强 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货整体震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约涨幅3.08%且近月合约涨幅大于 远月。现货方面，以节前补库为主。近期伴随价格上涨，玻璃产销环比改善。据隆众数据显示，本周浮法玻璃企 业开工率76.01 %，厂家库存5935.5万重箱，环比减少2.55%。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供应大体持稳，消费受到投机性需求和下游补库影响，库存有所去化但整体变化有限，盘 面大幅升水刺激期现拿货。宏观政策带动下，玻璃盘面价格波动剧烈，然而基本面对于价格依旧形成压制，持续 关注宏观政策的变化及玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，成交活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约涨幅1.15%，各个合约均有不同程度 上涨。现货方面，仍是以节前刚需补库为主。据隆众数据显示：本周国内纯碱产量77.69万吨，环比增加4.19%；库 存165.15万吨，环比减少2.61%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾依旧存在，同时伴随远兴二期点火，后续纯碱供给压力将进一步提升。持续关注纯碱 投机性需求有无减弱 ...

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan announced force majeure on its supply contract for the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, impacting copper supply [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, leading to increased market liquidity and opening up upward space for copper prices [1] - As of the latest report, the Shanghai copper main contract is priced at 82,320.00 CNY/ton, with a rise of 2.91%, while the international copper main contract is at 73,060.00 CNY/ton, up 3.03% [3] Group 2 - Guangfa Futures indicates that the long-term supply-demand imbalance provides bottom support for copper prices, with a gradual upward shift in price levels [1] - Short-term price increases are driven by disruptions at the mining end, with attention on potential shifts in macro market sentiment towards recovery trading and marginal changes in demand [1]

V期到日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】129 Z0015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 80045 | 80010 | +35.00 | 0.04% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 રેર | રેર | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 80030 SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80030 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 70 | 70 | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | 79955 SMM湿法铜 | 79920 | +35.00 | 0.04% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 -35 | -35 | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 1879 | 1799 | +80.00 | 4.45% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 -73.11 | -72.44 | -0.67 | | 美元/吨 | | 进口图号 -109 | -79 | -29.82 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term drivers are weak, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated in a narrow range. Macroscopically, if the subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are expected to benefit. Fundamentally, it remains in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The short - term is at least in a shock state, with the main reference range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely at the bottom. The market is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to reverse fundamentally in the short term. It is expected that the short - term main contract will oscillate in the range of 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected that the aluminum price will remain oscillating in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. The overall supply shortage pattern has not changed fundamentally. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment to rise, but the upside space is difficult to open under the expectation of loose supply. It is expected to mainly oscillate, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market was weak. Macroscopically, there was no more - than - expected positive news after the Fed's interest - rate cut. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction in the short term, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. It is expected that the market will oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated in a narrow range. The downstream started to replenish goods moderately before the festival, but the market transaction was mainly based on rigid demand. The supply side has certain pressure, and the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. It is expected that the short - term market will adjust through oscillation, with the main operating range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market mainly oscillated. The fundamentals remained in a tight balance. The supply was supplemented by the increase in imports, and the demand was steadily optimistic. It is expected that the short - term market will oscillate and organize, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was priced at 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was priced at 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was priced at 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The price difference between scrap and refined aluminum in Foshan increased [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was priced at 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was - 3,145 yuan/ton, an improvement of 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 25,700 tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was priced at 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was priced at 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 380 yuan/ton, up 5.56% [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 117,200 tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].