利空方面主要系固态电池涉及的6F、隔膜领域：昨日商务部、海关总署发布公告，对锂电池、正极材 料、石墨负极进行出口管制，其中锂电池包含能量密度≥300Wh/kg的电芯、电池组以及制造电池的设 备；正极材料包含压实密度≥2.5 g/cm3且克容量≥156mAh/g的铁锂、三元前驱体、富锂锰基、制造正极 的设备；负极材料包含人造石墨、人造天然混合的负极以及生产负极的相关设备。这一消息被市场解读 为重大利空，导致储能、锂电池、风电等板块集体下挫。 国金证券指出，化工产品之所具有明显的周期，核心在于供需错配，此次供给侧如果能够形成长期有效 的强约束，在企业决策、技术壁垒和项目审理都呈现出明显的不同，从而根本上改善周期性产品供给端 投放的长期趋势，带动周期性产品也能够获得较长时间的盈利空间。 截至2025年10月10日 14:42，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)成分股方面涨跌互现，新凤鸣(603225) 领涨4.92%，鲁西化工(000830)上涨3.30%，恒逸石化(000703)上涨2.85%；天赐材料(002709)领跌。化工 ETF(159870)最新报价0.74元，盘中净申购6.09亿份。 化工ETF ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗石 (8621)23297818× luoshi@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 09 日 国庆假期航空数据超预期，行业拐 点来临航司有望迎来黄金时代 看好 ——国庆假期航空行业点评 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共3页 简单金融 成就梦想 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 国庆假期国内天气表现并不平稳，但国内航空市场表现平稳，航空量价数据超预期。国 庆假期华南有台风登陆我国，新疆、西藏有降雪，西北地区多阴雨天气都对局部出行带 来影响，但是从全国国内民航市场整体来看，量价齐升。国内民航旅客运输量日 ...

导语 沪杭蓉等供应"量跌质增"或能维持去化热度但对成交规模提升有限。 ◎ 文 / 杨科伟、俞倩倩 研究视点 2025年以来地市延续止跌企稳走势，成交面积累计同比降幅持续收窄持稳，成交金额累计同比正增，一二线韧性 显著好于三四线。为了更好的分析地市止跌企稳对楼市新房供求影响，我们选择了北京、上海、成都、杭州、西 安等地市成交金额居前的重点城市，短期来看这些城市楼市热度同样居前，究竟地市成交放量会对楼市产生怎样 影响？又能否缓解城市供应短期问题呢？ 分能级来看，一二线韧性显著好于三四线：据CRIC监测数据，2025年前8月成交金额、成交均价同比增幅均超2 成，溢价率均在10%以上，较去年同期稳中有增。三四线暂未止跌，土地成交量价齐跌，溢价率较去年同期仍降 0.2pcts。 | | | | | 花・2020年 1 0 月日期次期刊ポイ1月10年 10時 20時 3 2017 14 1 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能级 | 累计成交面积 | | 累计成交金额 | | | 累计成交均价 | | 累计平均热度 | ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 9 月 29 日 星期一 纯苯远期累库难改，苯乙烯供需错配加剧 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：9 月 26 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.13%，报 6949 元/吨，基差 -34（-17 吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.32%，报 5903 元/吨。 成本：9 月 26 日布油主力收盘 65.0 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），WTI 原 油主力合约收盘 68.6 美元/桶（+0.1 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5870 元/吨（-15 元/吨）。 苯乙烯库存 18.7 万吨（+2.8 万吨），环比累库 17.3%，苯乙烯转为 累库。纯苯港口库存 10.7 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 20.1%。 供应：苯乙烯已有装置开始检修，开工率及供应如期减少。目前， 苯乙烯周产量 34.6 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 73.2%（- 0.2%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 55.2%（- 6.49%），ABS 产能利用率 70%（+0.2%），PS 产能利用率 59.1%（- 2.1% ...

本文来自微信公众号：经济观察报 （ID：eeo-com-cn），作者：王雅洁，题图来自：视觉中国 9月22日，江西赣州，一家钨矿的销售总监王磊挂断了欧洲买家加价三成求购黑钨精矿的电话。 他随即对团队成员表示，月度现货投放量要控制在200吨以内。 王磊手握的钨矿山出货单显示，9月下半月黑钨精矿发货量比上月同期减少30%，库存周转天数从15天 延长至45天。 这种"惜售"策略背后，是钨产业链上游企业面对历史新高钨价的自信抉择。 2025年以来，钨价一路狂飙。 从8月21日至今，钨价几乎每天都在快速上涨。 9月24日数据显示，欧洲APT（仲钨酸铵，钨精矿经过冶炼加工后的一种重要中间产品，欧洲APT价格 是国际主流钨价指标）价格已飙升至580美元/吨度至645美元/吨度（鹿特丹到岸价），同比上涨超 30%。 王磊说："现在不是我们在卖矿，是矿在'挑'客户。" 他对经济观察报表示，9月上旬，曾有国内冶炼厂负责人亲自带队来矿区驻守三天，只为争取100吨钨精 矿的优先采购权。 当上游开始"掌控"游戏规则，中游却逐渐面临成本困局。 面对上游矿企的"惜售挺价"，江西某冶炼厂厂长李建国形容自己所在的中游企业像"夹心饼干"。他向经 ...

Group 1 - The overall economic performance of China's basic chemical industry showed a steady improvement in the first half of the year, with 535 companies reporting a total revenue of 1,352.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 78.371 billion yuan, up 0.28% [1] - Among 31 sub-industries, 20 reported revenue growth, indicating a continuous optimization of the industrial structure and steady development of new productive forces within the basic chemical sector [1] Group 2 - Certain sub-industries, such as potash fertilizer, modified plastics, fluorochemicals, and others, experienced significant profit growth, benefiting from factors like reduced overseas supply and strong global demand [2] - Potash fertilizer companies collectively achieved a revenue of 13.129 billion yuan, a 3.57% increase, and a net profit of 5.663 billion yuan, soaring by 39.69% [2] - The fluorochemical sector saw a remarkable increase in revenue for refrigerant companies, totaling 33.488 billion yuan, a 29.96% rise, and a net profit of 4.575 billion yuan, up 137.42% [2] Group 3 - The modified plastics sector reported robust growth, with 16 companies generating a revenue of 60.319 billion yuan, a 20.7% increase, and a net profit of 1.531 billion yuan, up 29.64% [3] - This growth was driven by strong demand in emerging markets and technological advancements in high-performance materials [3] Group 4 - Despite positive performances in some areas, supply-demand mismatches remain a significant challenge for high-quality development in the industry [4] - The carbon black industry faced low operating rates and profitability issues, with five companies reporting a revenue of 21.295 billion yuan, a 1.52% increase, but a net profit drop of 24% to 0.078 billion yuan [4] - The titanium dioxide sector experienced a revenue decline of 10.92% to 30.65 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 38.55% to 1.962 billion yuan [4] Group 5 - The tire industry is grappling with rising raw material costs and intense competition, leading to a revenue drop of 11.24% to 101.613 billion yuan and a net profit decline of 21.07% to 6.85 billion yuan [4] - The government is promoting a "de-involution" strategy to eliminate unfair competition and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities, aiming for higher quality development in the chemical industry [5] - This policy is expected to alleviate issues of overcapacity and chaotic competition in certain sub-industries, leading to a potential phase of improvement in industry conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is facing significant supply pressure due to continuous capacity expansion, while demand recovery is weaker than expected, leading to a bearish outlook for PTA prices [2][4][7] Supply Pressure - The PTA industry has seen a capacity expansion of 34.8 million tons from 2022 to 2024, with an annual growth rate of 9.15% [2] - By mid-2025, the total PTA capacity is expected to exceed 91 million tons, further increasing supply pressure [2] - Despite temporary maintenance of some PTA facilities, the overall supply remains ample due to high capacity levels, with weekly production reaching 1.4308 million tons as of September 18, showing a 3.09% week-on-week increase and a 4.1% year-on-year increase [2] Demand Recovery - The polyester market has not experienced the anticipated demand recovery during the traditional peak season, with the domestic polyester operating rate at 87.9%, reflecting limited recovery momentum [4] - Year-to-date, PTA has added 5.7 million tons of capacity, while the polyester sector has only added 2.6 million tons, indicating a mismatch in supply and demand dynamics [4] Cost Support - PTA prices are closely linked to crude oil prices, which have been declining since September 17, leading to a drop in PTA prices over three consecutive trading days [5] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to weakened demand expectations and increased production plans from OPEC+, suggesting limited support for PTA prices from the cost side [5] PX Market Dynamics - The PX market has seen a slight increase in operating rates due to the restart of several facilities, contributing to a relaxed supply situation [6] - The low processing fees in the PTA sector are prompting some factories to plan maintenance, which could further reduce PTA operating rates and subsequently lower PX procurement demand [6] Overall Market Outlook - The continuous introduction of new PTA capacity raises concerns about oversupply, while weakening costs from crude oil and PX prices contribute to downward pressure on PTA prices [7] - The expectation is for PTA prices to remain weak in the short term, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a short-selling strategy [7]

Core Insights - The insurance industry is currently at a critical juncture for transformation and high-quality development, facing both strategic opportunities and challenges [2][3] - There is a growing demand for insurance products related to retirement, health, and long-term care, driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions, demographic structures, and technological advancements [1][2] Group 1: Industry Opportunities - The Chinese insurance market is the second largest globally, but there is still a gap in insurance depth and density compared to global averages [2] - The insurance industry is expected to evolve from a focus on risk compensation to a comprehensive management tool for quality of life and wealth management [1][4] Group 2: Consumer Demand Changes - Consumer preferences for risk management have shifted, leading to mismatches between supply and demand in the insurance sector, including issues like personalized needs versus standardized offerings [3][4] - There is a need for insurance companies to adapt to these changes by offering products and services that cover the entire lifecycle of customer needs, particularly in health, retirement, and wealth management [4] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The insurance industry should focus on high-quality development, enhancing compliance management, and innovating floating income products to better serve customer needs [4] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a family-centered approach to meet diverse needs in healthcare, retirement planning, and wealth preservation [4]

Core Insights - The white paper indicates a shift in family risk awareness, with a decline in traditional survival risk anxiety and a notable increase in wealth risk perception [1][2] - Families are moving beyond the traditional insurance compensation function to seek comprehensive solutions that include "products + services," reflecting a demand for professional services, smart decision-making, and personalized tools [1][7] Evolution of Family Protection Needs - The research conducted by Great Wall Life Insurance, Peking University, and Ipsos China reveals that while health, retirement, and accidental risks remain the top concerns, their attention has decreased compared to previous years. Conversely, awareness of wealth security and management risks has significantly increased, particularly regarding unemployment and wealth depreciation [2][5] - The study highlights that modern families' worries are concentrated in five key areas: healthcare, retirement planning, children's education, wealth security, and wealth inheritance, with 75.8% of families most concerned about health issues [5] Supply-Demand Mismatch - The white paper identifies four major mismatches between supply and demand in the insurance industry: 1. Mismatch between personalized demand and standardized supply, with 28% of respondents indicating that insurance plans do not meet their needs [8] 2. Mismatch between sufficient health coverage demand and low coverage supply, as the median cost of critical illness treatment is 300,000 yuan, while the average payout for critical illness insurance is below 100,000 yuan [8] 3. Mismatch between long-term wealth management needs and short-term supply, with 31.8% preferring 1-3 year investment plans and 30.9% preferring 3-5 years [8] 4. Mismatch between diversified retirement needs and weak collaborative supply, with only 25 nursing beds available per 1,000 elderly people, highlighting the need for integrated solutions [9] Strategic Opportunities for the Insurance Industry - The core finding from the research group suggests that the Chinese insurance industry is at a critical transformation point, transitioning from institutional-driven growth to economy-driven growth, with significant opportunities for expansion as the per capita GDP approaches 13,500 USD [10] - The white paper emphasizes that the ability of families to manage risks is crucial for social stability and that the insurance industry is evolving from a focus on risk compensation to comprehensive management tools for quality of life and wealth management [10] Recommendations for the Insurance Industry - The research group proposes several pathways for the insurance industry to adapt to family risk management needs: 1. Shift from a "single product-oriented" approach to a "family demand-oriented" approach to identify risk priorities at different life stages [11] 2. Implement scientific risk assessment and quantification tools to balance adequate coverage with cost [11] 3. Develop a comprehensive product system that aligns with customer needs throughout their life cycle [11] 4. Focus on long-term risk management by integrating resources to create a high-quality service ecosystem [11]

Core Insights - The white paper titled "White Paper on the Risk Protection System for Chinese Families under the Background of High-Quality Development of the Insurance Industry" was officially released, providing guidance for the scientific allocation of insurance for Chinese families in the new era [1] - The research highlights the need for the insurance industry to adapt to changing consumer demands and improve service capabilities to meet the new risk management needs of families [7] Industry Overview - As of the end of 2024, there are 239 insurance institutions in China, with total assets of 359,058 billion and net assets of 33,247 billion [2] - The comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of insurance companies is 199.4%, and the core solvency adequacy ratio is 139.1%, indicating a solid foundation for sustainable development [2] - The insurance industry is currently undergoing comprehensive reforms, supported by favorable policies from the government aimed at enhancing the industry's service to the real economy [2] Consumer Insights - The white paper identifies that modern families' concerns are primarily focused on five areas: healthcare, retirement planning, children's education, wealth security, and wealth inheritance [4] - 75.8% of surveyed families are most worried about health issues, while 68.2% are anxious about retirement planning [4] Supply-Demand Mismatch - The insurance industry exhibits four major mismatches in supply and demand: 1. Mismatch between personalized needs and standardized supply, with 28% of respondents indicating that insurance plans do not meet their needs [5] 2. Mismatch between sufficient health coverage needs and low coverage supply, with the median treatment cost for critical illnesses reaching 300,000, while average claims for critical illness insurance are below 100,000 [5] 3. Mismatch between long-term wealth needs and short-term supply, with 31.8% preferring 1-3 year investment plans [5] 4. Mismatch between diversified retirement needs and weak collaborative supply, with only 25 nursing beds available per 1,000 elderly people [6] Recommendations for Improvement - The white paper suggests a comprehensive approach to building a family risk protection system, emphasizing the need for personalized risk identification and a shift from product-oriented to family demand-oriented services [7] - It proposes the development of a "Family Risk Defense Index Model" to help families balance adequate coverage with cost [8] - The establishment of a comprehensive product system covering various life stages and risks is recommended, including medical insurance, commercial annuities, and wealth transfer solutions [8] - The integration of resources to create a high-quality service ecosystem is essential, focusing on proactive health management and comprehensive retirement services [9]