很多投资者都在问恒科为何大幅跑输？ 港股的跑输难道只是因为地缘的冲击么？ 短期的扰动都好理解，符合"套路"。 如果只是因为地缘导致的瞬时大跌，反而很好的买入机会，除非地缘局势继续且大幅升级。 更核心的原因在于，在整体信用周期震荡放缓的环境下，剩下还在扩张的景气结构自然就成了资金追逐的方向， 但如果特有结构暂时被市场所"嫌弃"，再加上资金面的"逆风"，这一表现也就不难理解了。 其实我们并不意外，我们一直给的整体空间就不多 港股的跑输难道只是因为地缘的冲击么？ 短期的扰动都好理解，符合"套路"。 如果只是因为地缘导致的瞬时大跌，反而很好的买入机会，除非地缘局势继续且大幅升级。 更核心的原因在于，在整体信用周期震荡放缓的环境下，剩下还在扩张的景气结构自然就成了资金追逐的方向， 但 很多投资者都在问恒科为何大幅跑输？ 其实我们并不意外，我们一直给的整体空间就不多 展望2026年，港股资金面环境要想超过2025年存在一定难度，大概率也不如A股，供给0.8-1万亿港元，与1.1万亿 港元的资金需求规模相近。 资金紧平衡叠加信用周期结构性扩张，意味着市场相比2025年可能更结构化，配置方向要紧跟信用扩张的方向。 港股再跑赢 ...

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned Monday that the next credit cycle will be “worse than a normal one” due to widespread complacency among lenders.Speaking at JPMorgan’s Global Leveraged Finance Conference in Miami Beach, Dimon said individuals and corporations are in good shape, but governments “have far more debt than they’ve ever had before.”“Asset prices are very high. Credit spreads are very low,” he said. “I don’t think a lot of people have seen a credit cycle. Not everyone who makes loans is ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 2月以来港股整体跑输，尤其是作为"核心资产"的恒生科技表现"垫底"。截至2月28日，恒指下跌2.8%（vs. 上证指数上涨1.1%、标普500下跌0.9%），恒生 科技更是大跌10.1%（vs. 科创50和纳斯达克下跌1.4%和3.4%）。恒科自10月高点以来回撤20%、且连续跌破多个技术支撑位，如果对比韩国年初以来近 50%的涨幅，反差更是强烈。从驱动因素看，相比盈利和无风险利率的正贡献，股权风险溢价（即情绪和叙事）是核心原因，拖累了14.7 ppt；从成分股 看，头部5个权重股就拖累6.0ppt的下跌。 图表：风险偏好主要拖累恒生科技指数表现 资料来源：Bloomberg，Wind，中金公司研究部 图表：结构上，五家拖累最大的公司合计贡献6.0 ppt的跌幅 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 恒科为何会大幅跑输？ 对于近期港股的疲弱表现，市场较为关注，但我们并不意外。 在整体信用周期震荡放缓的环境下，剩下还在扩张的景气结构自然 就成了资金追逐的方向，但如果其特有结构也暂时被市场所"嫌弃"，再加上资金面的"逆风"，这一表现也就不难理解了。一是信用周期决定整体指数空 间， 我们一直在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a correction due to three main pressures: hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve leading to concerns over liquidity tightening, skepticism regarding the return on AI capital expenditures affecting technology-heavy stocks, and a manufacturing PMI that fell below expectations indicating a weak fundamental outlook [1] Group 1 - The correction in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to a combination of factors including liquidity concerns from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [1] - There is skepticism in the market regarding the returns on capital expenditures in AI, which is putting pressure on technology-weighted stocks [1] - The manufacturing PMI has shown a decline below expectations, reflecting a weaker fundamental economic outlook [1] Group 2 - In the short term, the market may have overcorrected, suggesting potential for upward recovery [1] - In the medium term, the credit cycle is expected to limit the index's potential, with projections for the Hang Seng Index to range between 28,000 and 29,000 points [1] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with structural growth, particularly in essential retail, technology hardware, and new consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of 2026, the Hong Kong stock market has underperformed, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has been the worst performer among core assets [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has shown a decline of 3% since February, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped by 6.5%, reaching a new low since July of the previous year, with a nearly 20% pullback from its October peak [2][3]. - The A-share market experienced a strong start with 17 consecutive days of gains after New Year's, contrasting with the weaker performance of the Hong Kong market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Concerns over tightening liquidity and a weak macroeconomic environment have contributed to the recent pullback in the Hong Kong market [3][13]. - The market's performance is influenced by three dimensions: the credit cycle, industry trends, and liquidity, which amplify volatility [13][21]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on sectors aligned with credit expansion, particularly in AI technology and cyclical industries, while also considering essential retail and new consumption sectors for short-term opportunities [39][45]. - The report suggests that the overall market index has limited upside potential, with a benchmark range of 28,000 to 29,000 points for the Hang Seng Index [13][14]. Sector Analysis - The report highlights that the technology sector, particularly AI, and new consumption are critical for supporting the Hong Kong market's valuation elasticity [19][30]. - The performance of the Hong Kong market is closely tied to external liquidity conditions, with significant sensitivity to U.S. Federal Reserve policies [21][27]. Future Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong market will depend on the evolution of the credit cycle, industry trends, and liquidity conditions, which will dictate the market's ability to recover [13][14]. - The report anticipates a potential earnings growth of 3-4% for the Hong Kong market, driven by sentiment recovery in key sectors [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed since the beginning of 2026, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has shown the weakest performance among core assets [1][49]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since mid-January, the A-share market began to cool down, leading to increased attention on Hong Kong stocks, which initially saw a rise due to new consumption, metals, and internet sectors [3][51]. - However, concerns over global precious metals volatility and hawkish sentiments regarding the Federal Reserve have placed significant pressure on Hong Kong stocks, resulting in a 3% decline in the Hang Seng Index and a 6.5% drop in the Hang Seng Tech Index since February [3][51]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen nearly 20% from its peak in October, reaching a new low since July of the previous year [3][51]. Group 2: Reasons for Underperformance - The underperformance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed to tightening liquidity concerns, structural issues, and weak macroeconomic fundamentals [3][51]. - The market is worried about tightening liquidity due to the appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman, which has negatively impacted liquidity-sensitive assets like the Hang Seng Tech Index [5][57]. - The reassessment of AI capital expenditure narratives has also negatively affected tech stocks, with major companies like Tencent experiencing significant declines due to concerns over missed opportunities in the AI sector [9][57]. - Weak fundamentals are evident as the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, below market expectations, indicating a need for sustained policy support for recovery [10][58]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks is contingent on credit cycles, industry trends, and liquidity, with limited index space expected due to a weakening credit cycle [13][61]. - If fiscal policies only provide a floor without aggressive stimulus, the credit cycle is likely to weaken further, limiting index performance [14][63]. - The structural strength of the market will depend on the performance of key sectors such as technology and new consumption, which are crucial for potential recovery [19][67]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on sectors with unique structural advantages, such as dividends, technology, and new consumption, which are less prevalent in A-shares [27][80]. - The current recommendation is to prioritize sectors like essential retail, technology hardware, and new consumption, which have shown strong fundamentals and moderate trading activity [91][92].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed since the beginning of 2026, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has seen significant declines compared to other global indices. The article explores the reasons behind this underperformance and discusses potential recovery strategies for investors [2][4][12]. Group 1: Reasons for Underperformance - Concerns over tightening liquidity, structural issues, and weak macroeconomic fundamentals have contributed to the underperformance of the Hong Kong stock market [4][7]. - The Hang Seng Index has dropped by 3% since February, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen by 6.5%, reaching a new low since July of the previous year, with a nearly 20% pullback from its October peak [4][5]. - The market's cyclical nature shows that when liquidity tightens and structural attractiveness declines, the Hong Kong market tends to underperform [7][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The market has experienced a "see-saw" effect between the US, Hong Kong, and mainland China, with different sectors leading at various times. For instance, the first quarter saw the Hang Seng Tech Index leading, while the second quarter saw US stocks benefiting from AI-related performance [5][12]. - The recent volatility in precious metals and concerns over the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance have negatively impacted risk appetite, particularly for tech stocks [9][10]. - The relative performance of the Hang Seng Index against the CSI 300 is positively correlated with China's manufacturing PMI, which has recently shown a decline [10][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong market is contingent on credit cycles, industry trends, and liquidity conditions. The index is expected to have limited upside potential, with a baseline target range of 28,000 to 29,000 points [12][13]. - The credit cycle is expected to weaken, which may limit the index's upward movement unless there is significant fiscal stimulus aimed at boosting domestic demand [14][19]. - The article suggests that if leading tech companies can align their investments with their capabilities and market conditions, there may be greater potential for upward recovery in the Hong Kong market [17][19]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article recommends focusing on sectors with unique structural advantages, such as new consumption, technology, and high-dividend stocks, which are less prevalent in the A-share market [24][29]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring credit cycles and adjusting investment strategies accordingly, suggesting that when credit conditions tighten, fixed-return assets may become more attractive [30][33]. - The current investment strategy should prioritize sectors with strong fundamentals and moderate trading activity, such as essential retail, technology hardware, and new consumption [41][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, long - term interest rates may be similar to the early 2021 period, oscillating at the peak, but there are still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. In January, the 10Y Treasury yield initially reached 1.90% and then dropped to 1.81% at the end of the month, reaching the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. Currently, the expectation of broad - based monetary policy is relatively insufficient, making it difficult to support the yield to break downward. In February, with the large - scale supply of local bonds, the 10Y Treasury yield may return to the central position of the oscillation range. Investment strategies suggest focusing on two structural opportunities: the allocation opportunities of 5Y policy - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds due to the concentrated maturity of amortized - cost - method bond funds; and the opportunities for spread compression under the background of the central bank supporting reasonable and sufficient liquidity, such as the spread between 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 10Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. Summary by Directory 2 - Month Bond Market Outlook: Similarities and Differences between 2026 and 2021 - **Fundamentals**: In 2021, the credit cycle weakened and the real - estate market peaked and declined. In 2026, the credit cycle may decline moderately, and the real - estate market may still be at the bottom - grinding stage. In 2021, factors such as the "Three Red Lines" and "Two Concentration Limits on Mortgage Loans" in the real - estate industry and repeated outbreaks of the epidemic led to a contraction in real - estate financing, causing a rapid decline in the credit and real - estate cycles. In 2026, the real - estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage during the transformation of old and new driving forces, and the credit cycle may decline relatively moderately with the support of monetary and fiscal policies [1][8]. - **Fiscal Policy and Local Bond Supply**: After the withdrawal of extraordinary policies, the broad - based deficit ratio may decline marginally. Compared with 2021, the current local bond supply is front - loaded and has a longer term. In 2021, fiscal efforts were back - loaded and the term was shortened, while in 2026, fiscal policy continues to be "actively front - loaded" with a relatively long - term [12]. - **Monetary Policy and Capital Market**: In both 2021 and 2026, the expectation of broad - based monetary aggregate policies declined. However, in early 2026, liquidity was relatively abundant, while in early 2021, the capital market was tight. In 2021, there was no interest - rate cut throughout the year, and the policy intensity weakened significantly compared with 2020. In early 2026, there was a 25BP structural interest - rate cut and an over - amount renewal of MLF to provide liquidity support [18]. - **Equity Market and Institutional Behavior**: Against the backdrop of a booming equity market, funds flowed into the stock market. Compared with 2021 when insurance and funds had a greater demand for bonds, in 2026, factors such as the entry of insurance funds into the market and the lack of comparative advantages of pure bonds may limit the demand support for bonds [21]. January Bond Market Review Bond Market Trend Review - **First Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate rose 3bp to 1.88%. At the beginning of the year, affected by supply shocks and the A - share market's good start, the yield first rose and then fell, reaching a peak and then declining. Later in the week, as negative factors were initially released, market sentiment improved marginally, and the ultra - long - term bonds returned to around 2.3% [26]. - **Second Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 4bp to 1.84%. In the second week, under the combined effect of equity market adjustments, policy games, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market oscillated and recovered with increased volatility. After the central bank's over - amount renewal of repurchase agreements and the implementation of structural tool interest - rate cuts, the capital - market tension gradually eased. The adjustment policy of the exchange margin ratio for margin trading triggered risk - aversion trading in the equity market, and the bond market started a smooth upward trend [29]. - **Third Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 1bp to 1.83%. In the third week, with the central bank's support, the capital - market pressure was relatively controllable. As the equity market's upward trend slowed down, the bond market recovered. With the cooling of the equity market and the fermentation of external risk - aversion signals, the bullish sentiment in the bond market was boosted, and ultra - long - term bonds had a strong performance. At the end of the week, the central bank's over - amount renewal of MLF and the mention of "there is still some room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year" by the governor increased the market's expectation of an MLF interest - rate cut, and the bullish force in the bond market was strong [29]. - **Fourth Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 2bp to 1.81%. Near the end of the month, with a quiet market news environment, the stock - bond seesaw effect was strengthened, and the short - and long - term bond varieties showed different trends. At the beginning of the week, with tight capital, the short - term yield weakened, and the ultra - long - term bonds performed strongly, flattening the yield curve. Later, as the central bank's capital support took effect, the cross - month capital market was moderately loose. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened overall, while the ultra - long - term bonds weakened under the influence of profit - taking sentiment and supply concerns, making the yield curve steeper [30]. Capital Market - The central bank net - injected 967.8 billion yuan through four major tools. At the beginning of the month, due to a large supply of bonds, capital prices gradually increased. In the middle of the month, affected by the reserve - requirement payment day and the deferred repurchase agreement, the capital market tightened. On the evening of January 14, the central bank announced an over - amount renewal of 90 billion yuan in repurchase agreements, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan this month, and the capital market gradually loosened. At the end of the month, facing the tax - payment period, capital prices increased again, and the central bank net - injected 7 - day funds to support liquidity, but the amount was not large [31]. - In January, capital prices generally increased. The monthly average of R001 increased 5bp to 1.41%, and the monthly average of R007 decreased 2bp to 1.55%. The monthly average of DR001 increased 6bp to 1.34%, and the monthly average of DR007 increased 2bp to 1.51%. The 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) issuance rate oscillated in the range and then increased at the end of the month. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate first rose and then fell, and recovered at the end of the month. The 3M national - share bank bill rate first rose, then fell, and then recovered. As of January 30, the 3M national - share bank bill rate was 1.45%, and the monthly average from January 4 to 30 increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [33]. Secondary Market Trends - In January, yields first rose and then fell. Except for 3m, 3y, 20y, and 30y, the Treasury interest rates of other key tenors declined. Except for 5y - 3y, 7y - 5y, and 50y - 30y, the term spreads of other key tenors of Treasury bonds widened. As of January 30, the yields of 7y and 5y Treasury bonds decreased 6bp and 5bp respectively compared with December 31, reaching 1.68% and 1.58%, with relatively large declines. The term spreads of 30y - 10y and 3y - 1y widened 6bp compared with December 31, reaching 48bp and 10bp respectively, with relatively large widening amplitudes [42]. - In January 2026, the spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the negative spread between new and old 10Y China Development Bank bonds narrowed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds first rose and then fell [44]. Bond Market Sentiment - In January 2026, the inter - bank leverage ratio first rose and then fell, the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen, and the duration of bond funds first increased and then decreased within the month. The weekly average turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds in January 2026 increased slightly compared with December 2025. Compared with December 31, 2025, the spread between 50Y and 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed 2.9bp, and the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds widened 5.8bp on January 30, 2026. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 108.2% at the beginning of January and fell to 107.4% at the end of the month, and the exchange leverage ratio continued to decline and fell to 123.0% at the end of the month. Compared with December 31, 2025, the median duration of the full - sample bond funds remained basically the same on January 30, 2026, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.04 years. The implied tax rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened in January 2026 compared with December 2025 [50]. Bond Supply - In January 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds increased compared with December 2025 and January 2025. As of January 31, 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds in January 2026 was 133.12 billion yuan, an increase of 85.24 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 29.77 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. The net financing amounts of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased month - on - month [54]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, a total of 13 Treasury bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 121.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.41 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 19.85 billion yuan compared with January 2025, of which the proportion of those with a term of 1 year or less was 29%. On January 14, a new 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond 260002.IB was issued, with an issuance scale of 3.2 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.38%. On February 6, this 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond will be re - issued with 3.2 billion yuan [57]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of local government bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the issuance scale of local bonds will be large next week. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, 27 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 69.28 billion yuan, an increase of 45.88 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 12.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. 135 local government bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 86.33 billion yuan, an increase of 57.96 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 30.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. According to iFinD data as of January 31, 2026, it is planned to issue 57.97 billion yuan in local bonds from February 2 to February 6 [59]. - In January 2026, the net repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased, and the monthly issuance interest rate decreased. The total issuance amount of inter - bank NCDs in January 2026 was 169.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 143.57 billion yuan compared with December 2025. The total repayment amount was 231.62 billion yuan, and the net repayment amount was 62.28 billion yuan, an increase of 4.52 billion yuan month - on - month. The average issuance interest rate of NCDs in January 2026 was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.4bp compared with December 2025 [60]. Economic Data - In January, the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range. On January 31, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, the previous value was 50.1%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, the previous value was 50.2%; the comprehensive manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, the previous value was 50.7% [63]. - Since January, second - hand housing transactions have recovered, and industrial production has weakened marginally. In terms of real - estate, the monthly average of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month but the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities turned positive month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the land transaction area in 100 cities turned negative month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In terms of consumption, movie monthly consumption was weak both month - on - month and year - on - year, travel increased month - on - month, and subway passenger volume was stronger than the seasonal level. In terms of exports, the monthly port throughput increased year - on - year, and the freight rate index continued to decline year - on - year. Industrial production weakened marginally. The monthly average of daily coal consumption in power plants increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of the PTA and semi - steel tire operating rates increased month - on - month, while the operating rates of other indicators decreased month - on - month [63][65]. - The high - frequency infrastructure and price data in January showed that inventory indicators increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt increased significantly. In terms of infrastructure high - frequency data, the monthly average of the mill operating rate decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the monthly average of the asphalt operating rate decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of rebar inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Among price indicators, the monthly average of cement and vegetable price indicators decreased month - on - month, while the monthly average of other price indicators increased month - on - month [66]. Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged. On January 28, the Federal Reserve ended its two - day monetary policy meeting and announced to keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee stated that existing indicators showed that the US economic activity was expanding steadily, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook remained high. Employment growth was persistently low, the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilizing, and inflation remained at a relatively high level. Among the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 10 supported the monetary policy decision, and 2 members, Stephen Milan and Christopher Waller, voted against it, advocating a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [71]. - The US PPI increase in December exceeded expectations. On January 30, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US PPI in December increased 3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%. The core PPI in December increased 3.3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.7% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0% [71]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. On January 30, US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and this nomination needs to be approved by the Senate. Warsh joined the Federal Reserve in 2006 and was the youngest Federal Reserve governor at that time. In terms of monetary policy, he had a somewhat hawkish stance in the past and emphasized fiscal discipline and a more cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts [72]. -

Core Insights - In 2025, China's industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 73,982 billion yuan, marking a 0.6% increase from the previous year, the first positive annual growth since 2022 [1] - The manufacturing sector contributed 56,915.7 billion yuan in profits, with a growth rate of 5.0%, significantly rebounding by 8.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - December 2025 saw a monthly profit increase of 5.3% for industrial enterprises, reversing a 13.1% decline in November, representing an 18.4 percentage point recovery [1][4] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector's profit growth was primarily driven by the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries, which saw profit increases of 7.7% and 13.3% respectively [6] - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [6] Factors Influencing Profit Recovery - Key factors for the profit recovery in December included a significant rebound in production, increased external demand and export delivery values, and structural improvements in upstream and midstream industry prices [5] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returning to expansion and signs of inventory replenishment also contributed to improved profitability [5] Outlook for 2026 - The economic driving logic in China is shifting from a reliance on real estate and infrastructure to a focus on broad fiscal spending, which is expected to support infrastructure investment and domestic demand recovery [7] - The anticipated policy resonance between China and the U.S. could boost global demand for industrial metals and improve prices, potentially leading to a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [8] - In 2026, sectors likely to experience rapid growth include technology innovation and advantageous manufacturing areas, particularly those driven by AI technologies such as smart driving and humanoid robotics [9]

Core Insights - The 2026 Global and China Capital Market Outlook Forum highlighted the theme of "following the direction of credit expansion" as the core narrative for global and Hong Kong markets in 2026, emphasizing that excess liquidity is intensifying structural differentiation in the market [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The fundamental logic of the current market remains unchanged, driven by three main factors: valuation, economic direction, and capital, with capital playing an increasingly critical role leading to significant sector rotation [1] - In the Hong Kong stock market, 2025 is expected to exhibit a "one style per quarter" characteristic, with sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals taking turns, indicating that misjudging the timing could lead to losses even in a bull market [1][2] Group 2: Credit Cycle and Asset Performance - The credit cycle framework is essential for understanding market changes over the past three years, with 2024 focusing on dividend assets for stable returns, 2025 seeing a rise in sectors driven by an upward credit cycle, and 2026 expected to show a "mixed bag" where the strength of the credit cycle will dictate capital flows [2] - From a global perspective, the impact of credit expansion is pervasive, with the M7 sector in the US stock market showing significant gains closely tied to capital expenditure expectations, and the dollar's performance linked to fiscal expansion expectations in Europe and the US [2]