宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 内需与政策将重新主导 PMI 9 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 08 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 迈向"十五五"：迎接新政策风格 | 2025-09-28 | | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut is rising, and tariff disturbances affect the black sector. In the industrial aspect, the decline in iron ore shipments and the increase in molten iron production boost the spot demand. The expectation of stockpiling before the National Day holiday may support the iron ore futures and spot prices to run strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 785 for the I2601 contract and control the operation rhythm and risks. Also, it is suggested to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [8][55] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 799.5 (+10) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was 848 (+11) yuan/dry ton [6] - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2756.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800.6 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2329.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 572.5 million tons [6] - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2572.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72.1 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2448.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 78.0 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1320.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.2 million tons [6] - The average daily molten iron production was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [6] - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14456.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.4 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1632.42 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8993.05 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53.18 million tons [6] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [6] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls in August only increased by 22,000, far below the market expectation of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Mexico plans to raise the import tariff rates of about 1400 tariff items such as automobiles, toys, steel, textiles and plastics to 10% - 50% for countries including China that have not signed free - trade agreements with Mexico. Domestically, multiple ministries and commissions revealed the next - stage work focus, promoting capacity management in key industries and implementing policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries [8] - Supply - demand aspect: The shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, while the domestic port inventory continued to increase slightly. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills increased, and the molten iron production returned above 2.4 million tons [8] - Technical aspect: The center of gravity of the iron ore I2601 contract moved up, the daily K - line moving average combination was in a long arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 axis, and the red column was stable [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures price fluctuated strongly. The I2601 contract was weaker than the I2605 contract, and the spread on the 12th was 22 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton [14] - On September 12, the iron ore warehouse receipt volume at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 0 lots. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 34074 lots, an increase of 9065 lots compared with the previous week [22] - On September 12, the 61% Australian Macfayden ore at Qingdao Port was reported at 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 12th was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - From September 1 - 7, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 572.5 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 72.1 million tons week - on - week [31] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 30.40 million tons week - on - week; the average daily port clearance volume increased by 14.06 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased by 65.51 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore increased by 101.26 million tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 27.85 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 53.18 million tons week - on - week; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills increased by 15.98 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 1.53 days [34] - As of September 11, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in domestic large and medium - sized steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On September 11, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2111, a week - on - week increase of 132 [39] - In August 2025, China imported 105.225 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 602,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 801.618 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 60.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%; the average daily fine powder production was 382,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,000 tons; the inventory was 341,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 129,000 tons [42] - In July 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 86.325 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 595.914 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The fine iron powder output of 433 domestic iron mines in July was 23.119 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 185,000 tons, a decrease of 0.8% [46] 3.4 Downstream Situation - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 326,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%; from January to August, the cumulative steel export was 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. In August, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6%; from January to August, the cumulative steel import was 3.977 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [49] - On September 12, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.20 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 171,700 tons [52] 3.5 Options Market - With the significant recovery of molten iron production, the spot demand for iron ore increases. The expectation of steel mills to stockpile before the National Day holiday may support the strong operation of ore prices. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [55]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant pullback, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index dropping nearly 4% and most constituent stocks declining [1] - Major stocks such as Kelun-Botai Biopharmaceutical, CanSino Biologics, and Zai Lab fell over 5%, while China Biologic Products and 3SBio dropped over 4% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) saw a price drop of over 4% but later reduced its decline, indicating positive buying sentiment with a real-time premium rate exceeding 0.4% [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index has risen 101.58% year-to-date as of July 31, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index by 78.08 and 79.53 percentage points, respectively [2] - The ETF is the first in the market to track this index, focusing on the innovative drug industry chain with a high concentration of leading companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant pullback, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Selective Index dropping nearly 4% on August 28, 2023, primarily due to concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on imported drugs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) saw a decline of 3.93% and experienced a significant premium during trading, indicating positive buying sentiment [1]. - The ETF recorded a net inflow of over 25 million yuan in a single day, suggesting active buying interest despite the market downturn [1]. - The index has shown a remarkable year-to-date increase of 101.58%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index by 78.08% and 79.53%, respectively [6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent pullbacks in the innovative drug sector may be linked to tariff uncertainties, as U.S. President Trump has reiterated the possibility of imposing tariffs as high as 250% on imported drugs [3]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term market sentiment may fluctuate due to uncertainties, the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is expected to find new growth opportunities in the global market due to its innovative capabilities and supply chain advantages [3]. - The earnings outlook for the innovative drug sector remains positive, with many companies meeting expectations during the recent reporting season, and there are ongoing developments in external licensing transactions [3]. Group 3: Liquidity and Investment Strategy - Recent improvements in liquidity conditions are expected to support a phase of rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, narrowing the gap with the rapidly rising A-share market [4]. - The current earnings forecast rate for the Hong Kong market is at its highest since 2022, indicating a favorable environment for investment [4]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with differentiation from A-shares, starting with innovative drugs, followed by the internet sector, and finally new consumption as macroeconomic and profit turning points are awaited [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities including methanol, gold, iron ore, etc., analyzing their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market factors [1][2][4] Summaries by Commodity Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2297 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 83.76%, up 1.36%; downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.81%, up 1.04% weekly. The port inventory and production enterprise inventory are increasing. It is expected to run in a short - term shock, with support at 2410. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [1] Gold - Tariff disturbances still exist. After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the market started the interest - rate cut expectation. The short - term gold has a rebound demand, may be shock - bullish in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term. Pay attention to the seesaw effect between the US dollar and gold [2] Iron Ore - The inventory of 45 ports is 13845.20 tons, up 25.93 tons; the daily dispatch volume is 325.74 tons, down 8.93 tons. The current price may run in a shock adjustment. Focus on the implementation of environmental protection restrictions in the north [4] Coke - Mainstream coke enterprises launched the 8th price increase. Supply has increased slightly but is limited by high costs. Demand is strong as steel mills' profits are good. After the price increase, production will increase slightly. With the upcoming parade production restrictions, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short - term, and the futures price is still supported [4] Rebar - In the high - temperature and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is slow, but the temporary production restriction expectation and the "double - coke" futures increase boost the market sentiment. The steel price may run in a shock in the short - term [5] Soda Ash - The mainstream price is 1297 yuan/ton, showing a weak shock. The weekly output is 77.14 tons, up 1.33%; the manufacturer's inventory is up 0.9%. The domestic soda ash market is weak and volatile. It is expected to run in a shock, with support at 1300. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Polypropylene - The mainstream price is 7010 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate is 80.46%, up 1.15%; the downstream average start - up rate is 49.53%, up 0.18 percentage points weekly. The commercial inventory is 80.06 tons, down 2.68 tons. It is expected to run in a shock, with support at 7065. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [7] Live Pigs - The price is stable and weak. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, but there is support from storage sentiment and school - starting stockpiling. Short - term long positions can be held, with support at 13700 for the LH2511 contract. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [9] Palm Oil - Malaysia's exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9%. The inventory in key domestic areas decreased by 5.70% weekly. The domestic demand is restricted by the soybean - palm oil price difference. It is expected to run in a shock in the short - term [10] Soybeans - The port inventory is 889.8 tons, down 2.80 tons weekly. The domestic soybean price is fluctuating slightly and is weak and stable in the short - term due to the upcoming new - bean supply increase and limited demand [10] Crude Oil - India's imports in July decreased by 8.7%. There are talks about the Russia - Ukraine issue and the Iran nuclear issue. It may increase production in the fourth quarter. The price has rebounded. It is recommended to do short - term long for now [11] Rubber - The supply in Thailand and domestic areas is affected by rain, while that in Cote d'Ivoire is normal. The demand from the domestic tire industry is weak. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long cautiously around 15500 [12] Asphalt - Supply is shrinking, with the output down 4 tons to 54.8 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.2 percentage points to 30.7%. Demand is weak. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy and not to chase high in the short - term [13] Short - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank's continuous liquidity injection is beneficial to short - term bonds. The stock market has limited upward momentum in the short - term, which is beneficial to the bond market. It is recommended to do intraday operations on short - term bonds and short long - term bonds [13] Silver - The issue of Trump removing Cook from the Federal Reserve needs continuous observation. The Fed's independence is challenged. After Powell's speech, the market has an interest - rate cut expectation. The silver price is shock - bullish [14]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面表现偏弱，钢价承压下行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 关税扰动再现，市场情绪趋弱，黑色金属集体承压走弱，相应的螺纹钢基本面表现偏弱，建筑 钢厂生产趋稳，螺纹钢周产量环比微降，但品种吨钢利润尚可，生产积极性未退，后续存有增量空 间。与此同时，螺纹钢需求如期走弱，高频指标环比下行，且下游行业并未好转，需求弱势格局未 变，继续 ...

Consumption - The contribution of trade-in programs to retail sales has weakened, with July retail sales growth declining by 1.1 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year[3] - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy is expected to boost retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points, with a historical context showing a 1% subsidy could lead to a greater impact than previous years[4] - The consumer loan consumption rate has remained low, averaging around 2.5% since 2024, indicating a shift towards cash purchases rather than credit expansion[3] Production - Industrial production growth in July was 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.38%[5] - Service sector production also saw a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year, with mixed performance across various industries[5] Fixed Investment - Real estate investment has further declined, with July showing a year-on-year drop of 12.0%, and new housing sales showing signs of weakness[6] - Manufacturing investment has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%, with significant declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical products[6] - Infrastructure investment turned negative for the first time since 2021, with broad infrastructure showing a decline of 1.9% year-on-year in July[6] Economic Outlook - The data from July indicates a further weakening of domestic demand, suggesting increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4, which may prompt policy adjustments[7] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[7]

Group 1 - The market is primarily focused on tariff disruptions and the pace of interest rate cuts in the US [1][2] - On August 12, President Trump signed an executive order to extend the 24% tariffs for another 90 days, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The "secondary tariffs" issue remains a short-term concern, as the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on Indian products due to India's purchase of Russian energy [1] Group 2 - The July US CPI data was lower than expected, with core CPI slightly exceeding expectations, leading to increased concerns about economic recession [2] - The decline in food and energy prices contributed to the overall weakness in CPI, while services, particularly summer travel, were significant contributors to CPI increases [2] - Despite concerns about tariffs causing long-term inflation pressure, the actual inflation growth rate is not as high as anticipated, with a forecasted year-end CPI of 3.2% [2]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rebound today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.48% to 3683.46 points, marking a new high since December 2021 [1] - The Shenzhen Component increased by 1.76%, the ChiNext Index by 3.62%, and the STAR Market Index by 1.49% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Technology-related sectors led the gains, particularly in communications, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while dividend sectors like coal, finance, oil, and transportation lagged [1] Economic and Policy Insights - The market is currently focused on tariff disruptions and the pace of interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - The Trump administration's recent decision to extend tariffs on certain goods by 90 days aligns with market expectations, but concerns remain regarding "secondary tariffs" on Indian products due to energy purchases from Russia [2][1] - Analysts suggest that the secondary tariffs may be a strategic move to pressure China regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - Despite concerns that tariffs could lead to long-term inflationary pressures, actual inflation growth is not meeting expectations [3] - Predictions indicate that the year-end CPI may reach 3.2%, with a gradual peak expected [3] - The recent U.S. CPI data falling below expectations has created conditions for potential interest rate cuts in September [2] Sector Performance - The communication ETF (515880) saw a daily increase of 6.45%, driven by significant gains in optical module stocks, which constitute over 40% of the ETF's index [3] - The entrepreneurial AI ETF (159388) rose by 5.50%, benefiting from explosive growth in AI computing demand and product technology iterations [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector rebounded strongly, with the innovative drug ETF (517110) increasing by 4.05% [7] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector showed a mixed performance in the first half of the year, with leading companies achieving high growth while some faced short-term pressures [9] - The sector's growth is driven by product volume increases, business development (BD) overseas, and favorable procurement policies [9] - The Chinese innovative drug BD transaction volume reached 26.3 billion USD in the first half of 2025, accounting for 33% of the global market, up from 17% in 2021 [9] AI and Technology Developments - Huawei introduced a new technology, UCM, aimed at transforming the AI inference industry by efficiently managing large amounts of memory data [5] - The domestic AI application landscape is expected to follow the capital expenditure model of overseas giants like Meta and Microsoft, focusing on infrastructure investments [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in communication ETFs and entrepreneurial AI ETFs to capitalize on the upward trend in the AI supply chain [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that with the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tariff disturbances leading to fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be treated as oscillating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting to discuss "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." The Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Natural Resources issued a plan to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027. Overseas, Trump proposed a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, and Apple promised a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Raw material inventory has increased, and the current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. The coal mine inventory pressure has eased, and the coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Given the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, tariff disturbances, and fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be considered to be oscillating [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the contract position increased by 428 lots, the coke 1 - 9 contract spread increased by 41.50 points, the registered warehouse receipt increased by 40 lots, and the futures steel - coke ratio decreased by 0.08 points [9][11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 7, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the coke basis decreased by 66.50. From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase. In June, the output was 420 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Coking Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises increased by 0.27% to 73.75%, and the daily coke output increased by 0.19 to 52.02. Coke inventory decreased by 1.89 to 44.63, coking coal inventory decreased by 11.31 to 832.75, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.21 days to 12.0 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons from last week but an increase of 8.62 tons compared to last year. As of August 1, 2025, the total coke inventory increased by 6.24 tons to 884.59 tons, a 15.17% year - on - year increase. In terms of inventory structure, port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased [36][38][40]. - **Other Data**: In June, China exported 510,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 41.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from January to June was 3.51 million tons, a 27.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase, and the cumulative export from January to July was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, the second - hand housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of August 3, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities increased by 15.22% month - on - month but decreased by 15.43% year - on - year [45][47][49].